Q1 Delivery and Production Report (04.02.23)
发布时间 2023-04-02 19:18:13 来源
Hey everybody Rob Mauer here and today we are going to be going through Tesla's Q1 production and delivery report just released. Tesla has set new records for both production and deliveries, so let's get right into the numbers.
大家好，这里是Rob Mauer。今天我们要一起看一下特斯拉今天发布的第一季度生产和交付报告。特斯拉在生产和交付方面创下了新纪录，接下来我们就会看到具体的数字了。
Tesla saying in the first quarter we produced 440,000 vehicles and delivered over 422,000 vehicles, we continued to transition towards a more even regional mix of vehicle builds, delivery model SNX vehicles and transit to EMEA and APAC.
特斯拉在第一季度生产了44万辆汽车，并交付了超过42.2万辆汽车。我们继续向更平均的地区汽车构建转型，交付 SNX 车型，同时向欧洲、中东和亚太地区转型。
So looking at the numbers here, we've got 19,437 model SNX vehicles produced 10,695 vehicles delivered, so definitely some slowdown in SNX deliveries as Tesla mentions that there's some transition in regional mix, so we'll talk a little bit more about that in a minute. And then for Model 3 and Y, 421,371 vehicles produced, 412,180 delivered.
看着这里的数字，我们生产了19,437辆SNX车型的汽车，交付了10,695辆，因此Tesla提到区域组合发生了一些变化，SNX的交付有所放缓，稍后我们会再谈一下这个问题。至于Model 3和Y，我们生产了421,371辆汽车，交付了412,180辆。
We can see Elisa counting, not too many changes there, I think SNX may be a little bit higher and then our totals there, almost 414,000 produced, almost 423,000 delivered. So as we had previously talked about, the consensus expectation for deliveries was 421,000 a little bit over that, so Tesla has beat that by 0.3%.
我们可以看到Elisa在数数，没太多变化，我认为SNX可能稍微高一些，然后我们的总产量，几乎达到了414,000辆， 几乎交付了423,000辆。正如我们之前所谈论的，交付数量的共识预期是421,000辆，略微超过这个数字，所以特斯拉超过了0.3%的预期。
So a little bit above expectations from a consensus perspective, as we had talked about though, I do think that the true expectations, the whisper numbers, probably a little bit higher in terms of what actual expectations from analysts and investors were. And then for production, I think this is probably a little bit ahead, a little bit more ahead of expectations than what deliveries would have been.
从共识角度来看，略微超出了预期，正如我们所讨论的那样。然而，我认为真正的期望值，即“耳语数”，可能比分析师和投资者的实际期望稍微高一些。而在生产方面，我认为这可能比交付预期要领先一些。
Obviously, we went through my production forecast really close on that, so happy with that. My delivery expectation was, I think, 432,000, so a little bit softer on that, probably mostly from SNX being a little bit lower. But as we have seen, there's been inventory there, Tesla talking about transitioning in terms of the regional mix of deliveries on the SNX in particular. Plus, we do also know that there's been this transition phase to hardware 4, where Tesla right now is not really communicated much on that, so we might have people kind of holding off, especially in the United States, on just waiting for some communication on hardware 4.
很显然，我们在生产预测上非常紧密地进行了审查，对此感到非常满意。我的交付期望是43.2万，可能略微不够，主要是由于SNX稍微低一些。但是，正如我们所看到的，库存是存在的，特斯拉正谈论着在SNX特别是交付区域组合方面的过渡。此外，我们还知道已经过渡到硬件4的转型阶段，特斯拉现在并没有在这方面做出太多的沟通，所以我们可能会看到人们在美国尤其是等待硬件4的一些沟通之后再进行购买。
All right, that being said, Tesla has also given us an update on the earnings date, so they say that they'll post their first-quarter results on Wednesday, April 19th, aftermarket close, so that is in line with when we would have expected it to be. No surprises on that date. See if there's anything else in here, sometimes Tesla sneaks some other announcements in. This just came out, so absorbing this just the same as everyone else right now.
好的，说完这些，特斯拉也为我们更新了收益日期，他们说他们将在4月19日星期三的售后期结束发布第一季度的结果，所以这和我们预期的时间一致。那个日期上没有惊喜。看看这里还有没有其他的消息，有时特斯拉会偷偷发布一些其他的公告。这刚刚发出来，所以像每个人一样现在也在吸收这些信息。
For anyone that sees the semi, that's always up there. Nothing, no hints there. I always get questions on that. But let's flip over to Excel and just take a look at how this compares to expectations or rather to my forecast from Friday.
如果有任何人看到一直在那边的半拖车，请注意，那里没有任何提示。我经常被问到这个问题。但现在让我们转到Excel，看看这与预期或者说与我的星期五的预测相比如何。
All right, so there's deliveries, but let's hop over to production here first. So I just quickly made some updates to this from Friday. So if we just quickly look at Friday's numbers, which are here, my expectation was 4 and 3,9,895, so just less than 1,000 vehicles off, really happy with that forecast.
好的，我们目前有发货订单，但是我们先去生产这儿看看。我刚刚对上周五的数据进行了一些快速更新。让我们快速看看这里的上周五的数字。我的预期是4和3,9,895，实际相差不到1,000辆车，对于这个预测结果非常满意。
And that means usually I'm pretty happy with where the production numbers came in. So 440,808, that is a new record for Tesla, up slightly quarter over quarter, but remember we did have two fewer production days in Q1, 90 versus 92 from Q4.
这通常意味着，我对生产数据的结果很满意。所以说，Tesla新的记录是440,808，与上一季度略有增长，但要记得，Q1只有90个生产日，比Q4的92天少了两天。
And there was impacts from Chinese New Year. We had model three shutdowns in Shanghai. And then of course we had a little bit of a shutdown for Giga Berlin to kick February off. So across different factories, you've got weeks of downtime.
还受到了中国新年的影响。我们在上海进行了三次Model 3的关停。当然，2月初为了Giga Berlin也关停了一小段时间。因此，不同的工厂都有停产数周的情况。
Seem like Fremont had pretty consistent production throughout the quarter, though model S and X production was slightly down quarter over quarter. We can pop over and look at that, which this is now actualized.
貌似弗里蒙特在整个季度的生产都比较稳定，但 Model S 和 X 的生产季度对季度略有下降。我们可以去看看，这现在已经实现了。
So fill that in, the wrong color. But we can see that was down about 1200 vehicles quarter over quarter. The production rate on a daily basis or rather on a weekly basis, slightly down for us next to not too significantly, though.
所以填上错误的颜色。但我们可以看到季度比季度下降了大约1200辆车。每天或者更确切地说每周的生产率，对我们来说略微下降，但不太显著。
If we look at total production rates then slide back over, total weekly production, not factoring in downtime was 34,285 vehicles per week. That's up from last quarter, 32,456. So probably the best gauge for how production truly was. Just take a look at that.
如果我们看总生产率，然后回溯一下，不计算停机时间的总周生产率是每周34285辆车。这比上个季度的32456辆车要多。所以这可能是生产真实情况的最好标准。只需要看看这个数据就行了。
About 2.5% on a weekly production basis, and again, that also is not considering that downtime that we had. So in terms of the difference, I pretty much just added a little bit into Shanghai. We should see a little bit of potential upside there based on prior quarters or prior months, rather we've seen in November, Model 3 Model Y production peak at just over 13,000 per week and Model 3 production up at 7600.
每周生产基础上约为2.5％，而且还没有考虑我们所遇到的停机时间。因此，就差异而言，我基本上只是在上海加了一点。根据之前的季度或前几个月的情况，我们应该会看到一点潜在的上涨。在11月，Model 3和Model Y的生产高峰每周超过了13,000辆，Model 3的生产量达到了7600辆。
So there's definitely some potential here for a little bit higher production from what I've got for Model Y at 57,500 and some upside potentially for the three as well. Though Tesla seems to be probably pushing that a little bit less as more of the demand probably on the Model Y site. So those are kind of the adjustments I made, mostly putting it into Shanghai, Berlin and Texas.
我觉得这里有一些潜力，可能可以提高一点Model Y的产量，达到57,500。现在也有可能会更高一些。不过，特斯拉可能会把更多的需求放在Model Y上，而不是3。所以这是我所做的一些调整，主要放在上海、柏林和德克萨斯。
No adjustments that I've made there, but obviously when we're talking a thousand vehicle difference here, it couldn't be, you know, it could be pretty insignificant. And then Fremont mostly just holding those. So it looked like that clue that Tesla gave us on March 1st of the four million vehicles produced gave us a really good sort of insight into where things were going to come in for the quarter.
我没有做出任何调整，但显然当我们在这里谈到1000辆车的差异时，可能是相当微不足道的。弗里蒙特基本上只是持有这些。所以看起来特斯拉在3月1日给我们的关于生产400万辆车的线索，给了我们一个很好的洞察，了解本季度的情况。
So it makes things a little bit easier. As for a year over year perspective, Tesla up 44% from Q1 last year off the top of my head, tough to remember kind of what the impacts that we had in that quarter were, looks like Shanghai was a little bit below rate and February and March last year. And then of course Berlin and Texas kind of just getting started.
这样做可以稍微方便一些。至于与去年同期相比，如果我没记错的话，特斯拉从去年Q1起增长了44%，但很难记得当季所受到的影响是什么，看起来上海在去年的2月和3月有些低于预期，当然柏林和得克萨斯也刚刚开始起步。
So really great quarter or year over year production growth, usually Q1s softer for all those reasons that we mentioned down time Chinese New Year in terms of production and then deliveries as well. So if we flip over to deliveries then talk a little bit more about that and the inventory situation as well. We can see deliveries for an in 22,875 significantly up quarter of a quarter, 4% increase, which as we have talked about is not the norm.
实际上，我们在上一季度或与去年相比得到了非常出色的生产增长。通常来说，由于生产过程中的春节停工，第一季度都会相对较弱。接下来，我们会更多地谈论交付情况和库存状况。我们看到在本季度，我们交付的数量为22,875，相较于上一季度，增长了4%，这不是常态。
So last year was flat year prior up 2% quarter over quarter, the year before that I think this was COVID impacted potentially down 21%, down 31% though in 2019, flat in 2018 up 13% 2017. So generally, you know, we're not seeing huge growth quarter of a quarter in Q1 again for a lot of those same reasons that we talked about on the production side year over year perspective on deliveries up 36% from Q1s 310,000 last year.
去年平稳，前年同期上涨2%，再往前一年，可能受到COVID的影响，下跌21%，但在2019年下跌了31%，2018年持平，2017年上涨13%。总体来说，我们没有看到第一季度的巨大增长，这是因为我们在生产方面谈到的那些原因，与去年同期相比，交付量从去年的31万增长了36%。
So right now, let's sort of annualize this Tesla 440,000 per year produced multiply that times four. We're at about one that are 1.76 million. Remember Tesla talked about delivery guidance for about 1.8 million for the year. So from our production standpoint already on track for a number in that ballpark. And when we think about the future quarters again considering Q1 being softer from a production standpoint should pretty easily be able to make that from a production standpoint as well as the continued growth that we should see from Berlin and Texas.
现在，让我们将特斯拉每年生产44万辆车的数量乘以四来年度化。这样我们就得到了大约176万辆。请记住，特斯拉提出了每年交付约180万辆的指引。从我们的生产角度来看，我们已经在达成这个目标的轨道上了。考虑到第一季度的生产状况相对较弱，但我们应该能够从生产角度轻松地达到这个目标，并且我们还应该看到来自柏林和德克萨斯的持续增长。
So tracking pretty well here towards guidance, obviously Tesla talked about really their internal targets being more in the 2 million vehicle ballpark. So that should definitely be achievable as well when we take out those things like down time and add a couple of extra days on top of the continued growth.
我们正在相当准确地朝着目标迈进，很明显，特斯拉谈过他们内部目标在大约2百万辆车的范围内。当我们排除停机时间并在持续增长的基础上再增加几天时，这个目标肯定可以实现。
As for inventory, so that's kind of the big one, you know, we would have hoped to see a little bit less of a inventory buildup given that over the last two quarters Tesla has added about 56,000 vehicles to inventory. Now we get another 18,000 added here in Q1. So 75,000 vehicles added to inventory just in the last three quarters.
关于库存问题，这确实是个大问题。我们希望看到库存积压会低一些。因为在过去两个季度里，特斯拉已经增加了大约56,000辆车的库存。现在在Q1，我们又增加了另外18,000辆车。所以，仅在最近的三个季度中，特斯拉已经增加了75,000辆车的库存。
Now as Tesla grows, this should be partially expected Tesla as they become a bigger company, selling vehicles in more regions, more countries. There's just going to be more inventory. But we would have hoped that, you know, with such big builds, we wouldn't see quite as much, but nice to see at least not build as significantly as the last couple of quarters.
现在随着特斯拉的发展，我们应该会有些预料到，他们成为一个更大的公司，销售车辆覆盖更多的地区和国家，库存肯定会增加。但是我们原还希望，在进行如此大规模建设的同时，我们不会看到那么多的库存积压，但是好在至少没有像前几个季度那样积压得太过严重。
If we look at just sort of days of inventory, I haven't had a chance to calculate that, so we'll do some live math here again as usual. But we had about 13 days I'll flip back over to the browser here when we can take a look at what inventory was. We had about 13 days of inventory coming into the quarter from last quarter.
如果我们只看库存天数，我还没有机会计算，所以我们会像往常一样进行一些现场数学。但是从上一季度开始，我们的库存大约有13天的库存。我会翻回浏览器，让我们看看库存情况。
As we can see, that is a grown-over time, but 13 days of inventory for the automotive business, the automotive industry, really low. That's not going to grow too much here. The calculation for that is deliveries for the quarter divided by 75. That's a day of inventory according to the automotive news definition, so industry standard. So you just divide the 405,000 by 75. Gets you one day of inventory, multiply that by 13. Gets you about 70,000 vehicles in inventory coming into the quarter.
我们可以看到，这是随着时间的推移而增加的，但是汽车业的库存只有13天，实在是很低。这里不会有太多的增长。根据汽车新闻的定义，计算方法是季度交货量除以75，得出一个库存日。所以这是行业标准。所以你只需把405,000除以75，得到一个库存日，乘以13，得到季度进入库存的大约70,000辆车。
Now we add about 18,000 to that. So we've got about 88,000 vehicles in inventory to calculate a day of supply. We'll flip back and we'll take a look at deliveries. One second on that. So we take our 422, 875 divided by 75.
现在我们再加入约18,000辆车。所以我们库存大约有88,000辆车来计算一天的供应。我们会回头看看交付情况。请稍等一下。所以我们要将422,875除以75。
That gets us about 5638. We've got 88,000 divided by 5638. We've got about 15 and a half, 16 days of inventory. So going from 13 to 16 days, again, it's an increase. I would have liked to see that hold steady or decline a little bit. That's kind of what my forecast was, which basically keep in inventory days the same, but that has increased still significantly below industry, industry, industry average for Tesla on the inventory side.
这大概是5638的库存。我们有88,000除以5638。我们大约有15又半, 16天的库存。所以从13天增加到16天，又是一次增长。我本来希望看到库存天数保持稳定或稍微下降一点。这就是我预测的，基本上保持库存天数不变，但这仍然显著低于特斯拉的性行业平均库存水平。
So for it being the first quarter, not a huge deal, that being said, we did also have obviously the price cuts for the quarter, which you would have liked to see that draw down inventory a little bit. All right. So that's kind of the delivery report.
对于第一季度来说，这并不是一件很大的事情。话虽如此，我们在这个季度也会有价格调整，你会希望看到这一调整会把库存降低一点。好的，这就是交付报告的情况。
Trying to think if there's anything else really super important to mention. I am going to be working this into my model on share left later today. So hopefully I'll have an update out on that and we'll see kind of what this means for margin. And then in a couple of weeks, we'll go through that on Tesla daily as well.
我在想是否还有其他非常重要的事情需要提到。我今天稍后会将这个纳入我的份额模型中。希望我可以在更新中知道这对利润率意味着什么。然后几周后，我们也会在《特斯拉日报》上对其进行讨论。
And then yeah, I guess I'll take a quick look and see if there's any major questions here. People always ask the impact on share price. You know, who knows? We never know. But I think this, you know, being pretty close to consensus expectation there, hopefully means that Tesla kind of just moves forward from this report.
然后，我想我会快速浏览一下，看看这里是否有任何重要问题。人们总是问股价的影响。你知道，谁知道呢？我们从来不知道。但我认为，你知道，由于结果与共识预期非常接近，希望这意味着特斯拉可以从这个报告中继续前进。
I think this quarter in particular, a lot of the focus is just going to be on margin. What was the impact to margins from the price cuts? And this doesn't really tell us a whole lot about that. Well, you know, investors probably going to be a little bit disappointed to see inventory grow to an extent that it did. Because again, maybe production expectations a little bit lower than that.
我认为这一季度特别关注的重点就是利润率。价格下降对利润率的影响是什么？但这并没有给我们提供太多的信息。你知道，投资者可能会有些失望，看到库存增长到这个程度。因为也许生产预期比这还要低一点。
So I would say kind of mixed results in terms of investor reaction, but you know, sometimes you go through these events and through these days and you realize, oh, expectations were actually way lower and investors are happy. So we'll see, you know, I don't really have any strong feelings either way. It's not like Tesla blew the numbers out of the out of the water in terms of expectations. But at the same time, coming in a little bit ahead should be should be pretty solid.
我会说投资者反应有点复杂，但有时你会经历这些事件和日子，你会意识到预期实际上比较低，而投资者很高兴。我们会看看，我没有非常强烈的感觉。并不是特斯拉在预期上表现抢眼，但与此同时，稍微领先一些应该是相当稳健的。
All right. So, oh, X and Y. So again, I think there's, you know, an element of people holding off waiting to see a little bit more information on the hardware for transition. We did have price cuts later in the quarter for Tesla after we had seen inventory building. So talked about that very early on being a little bit of a concern. But at the same time, Tesla is just this quarter starting to shift these vehicles as they mentioned over to Europe, over to Asia. So there should be a lot of international demand that Tesla hasn't tapped yet.
好的，那么，嗯，X和Y。所以我认为，仍有一些人在等待一些更多的关于过渡硬件的信息，因此暂时不购买。我们后来在Tesla的库存积累后对价格进行了降低。早期就有一些担忧了。但是，同时，正如他们提到的，特斯拉本季度刚开始将这些车辆转移到欧洲和亚洲。因此，特斯拉还没有利用的国际市场应该有很大的需求。
And that gives me confidence that, you know, Tesla should have been able to sell more than the 11,000 vehicles that they did sell. So if those vehicles are just kind of, you know, stuck in transition, stuck in inventory, then it's hopefully not a major concern. That's, you know, definitely wouldn't be surprised if we see further price cuts on the S and the X, you know, as we talked about, especially the lower trims, I think those are still $10,000 higher than when Tesla announced the refresh.
这让我有信心，你知道，特斯拉理应卖出超过他们现在卖出的1.1万辆汽车。所以如果这些汽车被困在过渡或者库存中，那希望不是个大问题。我觉得如果我们看到S和X的价格进一步下降，特别是低档车型，那肯定不会惊讶。因为这些车型现在比特斯拉公布刷新消息时贵了1万美元。
And you know, we're 18 months, almost probably 24 months after that point now. So for Tesla to still be $10,000 higher, normally you'd have a higher price probably when you first refresh it, you have a lot, you know, spike of demand. So Tesla probably will work back towards that and maybe even a little bit lower than that at some point in time. And hopefully the cost reductions in materials that we've been talking about from sort of the big spikes that we have had, hopefully those will play their way through when Tesla can be able to still make really healthy margins on the S and the X at those prices.
你知道，我们现在已经过了18个月，几乎可能是24个月后的那个时间点。所以对于特斯拉来说，仍然比之前高$10,000是不正常的。通常，当你首次推出更新时，你会有更高的价格，并有很多需求激增。所以特斯拉可能会朝着那个方向发展，甚至在某个时间点可能会降低一点。希望我们一直在谈论的材料成本降低从我们经历的巨大波动中发挥作用，希望特斯拉能够在那样的价格上仍能赚取非常健康的利润。
Remember when they announced that refresh, they said that the cost of goods sold, the build of materials for those vehicles was a lower than the pre-refresh version and yet the prices were higher. So there should still be plenty of room for Tesla to take those prices down. And hopefully we just see, you know, demand increase a little bit in general in the auto industry. That's a little bit tougher right now.
记得当他们宣布那次更新时，他们说那些车辆的成本和材料成本比更新前更低，然而价格却更高了。因此，特斯拉仍有很大的空间将价格降下来。而且，希望我们可以看到整个汽车行业的需求增加一点，这现在有些困难。
Okay, just taking a look here through the comments.
好的，我只是在看评论。
Again, I think that's most of what we had to talk about.
再说一遍，我想那就是我们需要谈论的大部分内容了。
Again, this puts Tesla on, you know, on good track for their guidance for the year 1.8 million vehicles definitely attainable.
再说一遍，这使得特斯拉在今年的指引方面处于良好的轨道，确保达成180万车辆的目标是可实现的。
They're basically production rate annualizing to that right now. And we should see Berlin and Texas increase.
他们现在基本上正在将生产率年化。我们应该会看到柏林和德克萨斯的增加。
Shanghai was obviously a little bit lower this quarter than what we had seen last quarter.
本季度上海的表现明显比上季度稍微低了一些。
You know, we lost 20,000 vehicles of production there roughly from Shanghai.
你知道吗，大约有2万辆生产车辆在上海那里消失了。
So if you just assume Tesla kind of gets back to those levels and Q4 even had some downtime in it.
所以，如果你假设特斯拉会回到那些水平，甚至Q4中会有一些停机时间。
If you assume Tesla gets back to that, you know, that adds another 60,000 for the remaining three quarters, which already puts you over the 1.8 million vehicles produced.
如果你假设特斯拉能够恢复生产，那么这将为剩下的三个季度再增加60,000辆车的产量，这已经让累计生产数量超过了180万辆。
And then Tesla's, you know, since they have had this opportunity to build inventory, hopefully the remaining quarters we don't continue to see sort of this same thing happening.
然后，你知道，由于特斯拉有机会建立库存，希望在未来的季度里我们不会再看到同样的情况发生。
It seemed like Tesla was kind of unwinding the wave a little bit, but maybe that was just a little bit of misinterpretation.
听起来特斯拉有点在放松这个波，但也许那只是有点误解。
Hopefully they'll share a little bit more on that with the earnings report.
希望他们在财报中能够分享更多关于这方面的信息。
And here expectations were 420k.
这里的预期是42万。
What are you talking about below expectations? I don't think I said, if I said below expectations, oh, they were talking to their commenters.
你在谈论什么是低于预期吗？我不认为我说过如果我说低于预期的话，哦，他们是在和评论者谈论。
Sorry. Yeah, just a little bit higher than expectations.
抱歉，嗯，略高于预期一点点。
Again, maybe a little bit lower than the whisper number.
再次说，也许比悄声数字再低一点点。
I guess we'll get a better idea of that tomorrow when we see the markets reaction.
我猜明天当我们看到市场的反应时，我们会更好地了解那个问题。
Thank you, Laura, for the super chat. Appreciate that.
谢谢你的超级聊天，劳拉。非常感谢。
Altair, do you think 500,000 production in Q2?
Altair，你认为Q2的产量会达到50万吗？
It's possible.
这是可能的。
Probably Texas is the big unknown right now.
目前来看，很可能德克萨斯州是我们不太清楚的一个大问题。
Tesla kind of makes the progress in Texas that they did in Berlin this quarter.
特斯拉在德克萨斯州这个季度有点像在柏林一样取得了进展。
That could add another 15,000 or so to Q2.
那可能会在第二季度再增加约15,000人。
Maybe another 15,000 increase from Berlin.
也许从柏林再增加1.5万。
So you've got maybe 30,000 between those two, which is, I guess they increased about roughly 20,000 in Q1.
那么你在这两个区间之间大概有3万美元，我猜Q1时增加了大约2万美元。
So say another 25,000 from Berlin, Texas.
还有来自德克萨斯州柏林的另外25000人。
And you've got maybe another 20,000 from Shanghai.
你还从上海那里得到了大约另外2万个。
Maybe another 5,000 out of three months.
或许再三个月内还需要另外5000个。
So I guess put those all together.
那么我猜把它们都放在一起吧。
You'd be at 50,000.
你会有五万美元。
And we had 440,000 vehicles produced this quarter.
这个季度，我们生产了44万辆汽车。
They're on sheet there, but pretty similar numbers.
它们在那张表上，数字非常相似。
So maybe you get up to like 490,000 seems like a pretty reasonable number.
那么，也许你增加到49万看起来是一个相当合理的数字。
I do have my forecast in here, but those have not been reviewed yet.
我这里确实有我的预测结果，但这些还没有受到审查。
So we'll pause on that.
所以我们先暂停一下。
Plus, you never know on downtime, especially at Texas, if Tesla is continuing to work really hard on Cybertruck, that could be impacting things.
此外，在停机期间，特别是在德克萨斯州，你永远不知道特斯拉是否正在努力工作，为了完成Cybertruck，这可能会影响到事情的进行。
Obviously 4680s.
很明显，4680s。
We don't know the status of the ramp there.
我们不知道那里的坡道状态。
It seems like it's progressing, but we don't know how quickly.
看起来它正在进展，但我们不知道进展有多快。
So still a lot of unknowns for the second quarter.
所以第二季度还有很多未知数。
Remind to focus on production, then deliveries.
请记得专注于生产，然后再考虑交付。
Yeah, I mean, as I've always said, for me, production is the most important.
是的，我的意思是，像我一直说的那样，对我来说，制作是最重要的。
That's why I spend more time in my forecasting on that.
这就是为什么我在我的预测中花更多的时间在这方面。
So you know, happy with that production forecast.
那么，你知道的，对于那个生产预测很满意。
We're at a point in time right now where the markets care way more about deliveries than they do production right now.
现在我们正处于一个时刻，市场对交付更加关注，而对生产的关注度则相对较低。
People are concerned that Tesla is bumping up against its demand plateau, especially just given the current high interest rates.
人们担心特斯拉即将接近需求高原，尤其是考虑到目前高利率的情况下。
That obviously adds cost to the vehicle in terms of financing.
显然，这会增加汽车的融资成本。
A lot of vehicle purchases are obviously financed.
很多汽车购买显然是有融资的。
So it just effectively makes the cost of vehicles more expensive.
这就有效地使车辆的成本更高了。
And just there's a lot of turmoil in the markets right now.
现在市场里有很多动荡。
So especially in China, where we've seen the automotive industry, you know, contract this quarter for sure.
在中国特别是这个季度汽车产业收缩了，这一点是毫无疑问的。
So right now, there's more of a focus on deliveries than there probably normally would be just given the inventory bill that we've had the last couple of quarters.
现在，由于我们在过去几个季度中的库存账单，我们更关注交付。
And I think the market's just wanting some signs that Tesla is in a strong demand position.
我认为市场只是想看到一些迹象，表明特斯拉处于强劲的需求位置。
And I don't know that this really fully answered that.
我不知道这真的完全回答了那个问题。
There are huge questions now that are going to pop up on the S and the X.
现在将出现许多关于S和X的重大问题。
Hopefully, you know, a little bit better on the three in the Y.
希望你知道，把 Y 里的三个字母稍微改进一下会更好一些。
And those are way more important to Tesla's financials.
这些对特斯拉的财务状况更加重要。
So, you know, again, going back to the reaction, I think it's just kind of, it's an okay report from investor expectations.
所以，你知道，再回到这个反应，我认为这只是一个符合投资者预期的普通报告。
I'm pretty happy with it because again, I care more about production.
我对它感到相当满意，因为我更关注生产。
And I think the production number here is really strong.
我觉得这里的生产数量真的很强大。
The difference between the production and delivery numbers, the importance of that difference will be a little bit more clear once we understand the margins because if Tesla still got really strong margins, that will tell investors that will tell the street that Tesla can continue to do what they did the last quarter, continue to drop prices down to match demand with supply.
生产数量和交付数量之间的差异，重要性会更加清晰，一旦我们了解了利润率。因为如果特斯拉仍然拥有非常强大的利润率，那将告诉投资者、告诉街道，特斯拉可以继续做上个季度所做的事情，并继续降低价格以匹配供需。
You know, that's the whole equation that's what it's always been.
你知道的，这就是整个等式，一直都是这样。
Tesla is going to have prices at a point where they're selling all their production.
特斯拉的价格将会在销售所有生产量的点上。
That's effectively where they're at right now, even if there's a little bit of rockiness quarter to quarter.
实际上，这就是他们目前所处的位置，尽管每个季度都有些许波动。
So we've got sort of the supply, the demand picture, a little bit, it's not full obviously. It's just one quarter, a week quarter. But we've got some data points on that. Now we're sort of waiting for the other part of the picture, which is the financials, which once we have that, that'll give us more clarity on what sort of wiggle room Tesla has to continue to cut prices if they need to.
我们已经了解了大致的供需情况，并且有一些数据支持，但显然还不完整。这只是一个季度，只有一周的数据。现在我们正在等待另一部分的信息，也就是财务数据。当我们获得这些数据后，就能更清楚地了解Tesla能否继续降价的空间。
So you continue to increase demand for these vehicles in accordance with supply as they work towards the next generation vehicle. So as we've kind of talked about, I do think that Tesla is starting to come up a little bit towards, you know, not the end of the growth of the Model 3 and the Model Y, but we've had such explosive growth for these vehicles over the last couple of years that you just can't, you just can't continue that forever. Right.
所以你继续根据供应增加对这些车辆的需求，以便为下一代车辆做好准备。我们已经谈到过，我认为特斯拉正在逐渐接近Model 3和Model Y的增长末期，但过去几年这些车辆的增长实在太快了，不能永远持续下去，对吧。
So at some point that growth is going to slow down. We're starting to get to that point, I think, which is fine. It's healthy. That happened with the Model S and the Model X. But then Tesla unveiled and introduced the Model 3, unveiled and introduced the Model Y and that brought us to the next stage of growth. And that's where we're at right now, right? We're waiting for the next generation vehicle and that'll bring Tesla to the next stage of growth. Prior to that, we'll get the Cybertruck obviously. That'll be super exciting from a product perspective should add a little bit to the, you know, to the financials.
所以在某个时候，增长就会减缓。我认为我们已经开始达到这个点了，这是很好的，也是健康的。这种情况发生在Model S和Model X上。但之后，特斯拉推出并介绍了Model 3、Model Y，这使我们进入了下一个增长阶段。现在我们就在这个阶段，对吧？我们正在等待下一代车型，这将把特斯拉带到下一个增长阶段。在此之前，我们会得到Cybertruck，这从产品角度来看会非常令人兴奋，也应该对财务有所帮助。
It's not going to be as big as 3 and Y, but it should be bigger than the S and the X. So that'll add a little bit as we sort of be a little bit of an appetizer. That's what you wait for the next generation platform. But, you know, that'll be the next stage of growth for Tesla along with continuing obviously progress on FSD.
它不会像3和Y那么大，但应该比S和X大。这将添加一点，我们将作为一点开胃菜。这就是您等待下一代平台的原因。但是，您知道，这将是特斯拉的下一个增长阶段，同时显然在FSD方面继续进展。
So yeah, those are good questions in terms of production being more important than deliveries. That's not how the market's going to see it right now. But for me, that's always the most important because I think Tesla will ultimately be able to sell these cars. I think once we get into summer, hopefully demand is a little bit better. But obviously a lot of macro stuff going on that can influence that right now.
嗯，就生产比交付更重要而言，这些确实是好问题。但目前市场并不是这个看法。但对于我来说，这一点始终是最重要的，因为我认为特斯拉最终能够销售这些汽车。我认为一旦我们进入夏天，需求会稍微好一些。但显然现在有很多宏观因素可能会影响到它。
All right. Just reading through the comments here. Did see a couple of super chats. Nauranga, thank you. Appreciate that. Jason saying, good quarter for Elon not to be on the call. Then as he promised of not being on calls unless something important to say. Just to clarify, I don't think that was a promise. I think that was more of just a comment in passing that he thinks that he didn't need to be on calls going forward unless there's something important to say. But obviously we've seen him be on all the calls since then, except for one. And that one call went well. So working a little bit against Elon in that favor.
好的，我刚刚浏览了这里的评论。看到了一些捐款。Nauranga，谢谢你。感激不尽。Jason说，对于埃隆来说，这是一个好季度，不参加电话会议。然后，他承诺除非有重要的事情要说，否则不再参加电话会议。但是，我不认为这是一个承诺。我认为那只是他顺便说的一句话，他认为除非有什么重要的事情要说，否则他不需要参加电话会议。但是显然，除了一次之外，我们看到他参加了所有的电话会议。而那一次电话会议顺利进行，有点对埃隆有利。
But I'm fine with Elon being on the calls. I appreciate hearing his perspective, even if it's occasions where he's not catering to Wall Street, right? And sometimes investors kind of like when their management teams cater to Wall Street because that can mean short term gains. But hopefully most of us here are not of that mind. I would personally rather hear from Elon since he's got a lot of interesting things to say.
但是我可以接受埃隆参加这些电话。我很欣赏听到他的观点，即使有时他不面向华尔街。有时投资者喜欢他们的管理团队迎合华尔街，因为这可能意味着短期收益。但是希望我们大多数人并不这么想。我个人更愿意听埃隆说话，因为他有很多有趣的事情要说。
All right. Well, I think that's good enough for today. Obviously we'll spend some time kind of thinking about these digesting these numbers. Nothing too crazy, roughly in line with expectations. So at least in terms of the production side. Obviously, deliveries a little bit low. We can calculate the difference there. See 423. I was at 432.8. So yeah, 2.3% below for deliveries from my expectation. People are always weird about how those things get phrased. But yeah, a little bit below my expectations, but ahead of consensus. So in the same ballpark of expectations.
好的，我觉得今天就到这里吧，也够了。显然，我们需要花些时间思考和消化这些数字，但是整体而言，也不太疯狂，大致符合预期。至少就生产方面而言，情况还不错。显然，交付量有点低，我们可以计算差额。看看是423，我的预期是432.8。所以，交付量比我预期的低了2.3%。人们总是对这些用语很奇怪，但是就我的预期而言，略低于预期，但是高于共识。所以，总体来说还是符合预期的。
All right. We'll wrap it up there then. As always, thank you for listening. Make sure to subscribe and sign up for notifications. You can also find me on Twitter at Tessa Podcast. Have a great rest of your weekend and we'll see you tomorrow for the Monday, April 3rd episode of Tessa Daily. Thank you.
好的，那我们就到这儿结束吧。一如既往，感谢您收听。记得订阅并接收通知。您也可以在Twitter上找到我，账号是Tessa Podcast。祝您周末愉快，我们明天会在4月3日星期一为您带来Tessa Daily的新一期，感谢您收听。谢谢。