Hey everybody, your obman were here, welcome back to Tesla Daily. Today we're of course going to go through some of Tesla's pricing updates the last couple of days. We've also got more clarification on the changes to the EV tax credit coming at the beginning of next year, news on the cyber truck, China sales, and a few other items as well.
Alright, checking in on the stock since we left off on Thursday, actually it's been pretty stable. Tesla today down a third of a percent closing at $259.67, the Nasdaq up about a third of a percent, and this follows Tesla moving less than a dollar on a Friday. Both of these trading days coming after Tesla updated prices on the Model 3 and the Model Y in the United States. That happened late on Thursday, so let's quickly catch up on that.
Looking at the price change table, we can see that the Model 3 rear wheel drive and long range versions have been reduced by $1,250, the performance by $1,000 more so $2,250, with the base prices now running between $39,000 and $51,000 on the Model 3. For the Model Y, of course we had previously talked about the introduction of the rear wheel drive version taking that opening price point slot at $43,990. Now Tesla has got the price on the long range in the performance Model Y by $2,000 a piece, which will narrow the gap between the rear wheel drive and those other trims, which will obviously affect the mix between those versions.
So more price cuts, obviously we'll have to wait and see what happens with costs, especially here in Q4 as Tesla's production should be significantly higher than it was in Q3 certainly. So just from economies of scale, better utilization, Tesla should see lower costs per unit in the fourth quarter, plus any improvements and efficiencies, any impacts of raw materials and things like that. Setting aside some of the impacts that we may see from things like ramping highland, ramping Cybertruck, ramping 4680, etc. Which is really a better way to look at things when we're considering pricing adjustments.
Still, obviously margins would benefit more if Tesla was able to do all those things on the cost side and maintain pricing, but I think the materiality of this is yet to be seen because at the same time Tesla were these prices, we actually saw them remove the inventory discounts, which have been prevalent now for months, and although there's murkiness there because of the case by case nature of those discounts, I would guess on average those were more significant than these price cuts are.
That leaves us guessing what the previous order mix and how that came in between inventory and higher priced new orders, but with the amount of inventory had and the significance of those discounts being multiple thousands of dollars, I would be surprised if the inventory mix wasn't pretty high and that's what I'm going to reflect in my forecast for the third quarter. My guess is that ASPs for Model 3 at least right now are probably sitting pretty similarly to what they were before, maybe even a little bit higher, and for Model Y that one's most likely come down because of the introduction of the real wheel drive at a lower price point, plus these price reductions, and the inventory discounts on Model Y didn't seem to be quite as significant as they were previously on the Model 3.
Note that demo vehicles do still have inventory discounts, but that's kind of always been the case though should be viewed separately, as there's obviously a very clear reason for giving a discount on those cars. In addition to the removal of the inventory discounts, Tesla has also reduced the discount from the referral program, which most recently was $500 off and pretty shortly before that was $1,000 off, that has now been dropped to $250. Perhaps also worth noting Tesla has increased the price of the Model Y by roughly a couple thousand dollars in Norway and Sweden. So a lot of changes here, I would expect that we'll continue to see changes on this as Tesla optimizes for orders throughout the quarter, and I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see inventory discounts come back after Tesla gets through potentially a wave of new orders with the lower prices, but from just the sum of these changes in isolation, I would expect a pretty minor overall impact.
Alright, next we've got some news on the US Federal EV Tax Credit. This news I think will actually have a pretty major impact. It's about the structure of the EV Tax Credit beginning next year, which as we have discussed on numerous occasions previously, will bring some pretty major changes.
So the US Department of Treasury and the IRS have released new guidance on these changes beginning in the new year. One of the big ones as a reminder is that consumers will be able to elect to transfer the credit to the dealer or seller of their car, allowing the seller to then take that amount off of the invoice at the point of sale and then be reimbursed by the government for the EV Tax Credit. The Department of Treasury says quote, this will effectively lower the vehicle's purchase price by providing consumers with an upfront down payment on their clean vehicle at the point of sale, rather than having to wait to claim their credit on their tax return the next year, end quote. So rather than having to wait up to 15 months or so to get that money back, it's just coming off of the price of the vehicle immediately at the point of purchase, which should mean it'll be more easily factored into things like monthly payments, which are obviously a big determining factor in terms of what vehicles are being purchased, and has a psychological impact that I think would be akin to something like a discounted upfront price versus something like a mail in rebate.
Anything tied into taxes and the possible workload accompanying that is going to increase hesitancy or the perceived value of that credit. So I think this should significantly help with that.
And then perhaps just as importantly, the Department of Treasury says quote, the guidance would clarify that eligible consumers may transfer the full value of the new or previously owned vehicle credit, regardless of their individual tax liability end quote. Right now the current tax credit is non refundable. So if you don't actually have $7,500 of federal tax liability, you can not get the full credit regardless of the eligibility of the vehicle or the eligibility of yourself via the income requirements. This guidance would change that so that you don't have to worry about your tax liability or any surprise from you not having as much liability as maybe you thought when you purchased the vehicle, it effectively becomes fully refundable plus you get it right away. So that's a couple of huge changes more people are going to be eligible for more of the credit, and they will immediately see the benefit of that rather than having to wait.
We do also have some insight in terms of eligibility and how that's going to be determined. So it says consumers may transfer the credit if they attest they believe they are eligible, including falling below the applicable income limits. And if they do end up exceeding those income limits, then they're liable to return the full amount of the credit at tax time. So it sounds like it's just up to the customer to determine that and attest to it. And then if they do end up going over the income, then they'll have to pay that back at tax time. So setting aside what the requirements actually are, I think with those requirements in place, that feels like a pretty reasonable solution.
Overall, this should be a big win for Tesla beginning January 1st. Some of these things are still in the proposal stage. So we'll have to wait for all of it to be finalized, but that should be a big help, especially in the first quarter when this impact would be most significant in terms of the time shifting of the tax credit.
At the same time though, as we have previously discussed, it's not all good news heading into 2024 for the EV tax credit, because as Tesla indicates on their website, they say reductions to tax credit likely after December 31st. That would be due to escalating requirements for things like sourcing and battery materials that increase year over year. We don't know exactly what changes it will bring, but the best guesses right now are that some of the full tax credits will be cut in half for some vehicles. We'll have to wait and see on that, but at least some good news to pair with it.
Next we've got a few updates on the cyber truck yesterday on X-Test actually live streamed a video of a couple of cyber trucks down in Mexico in Baja. The engineers said that they started off about a week ago in San Diego and have now made their way all the way down the Baja Peninsula for testing of these cyber trucks, which were right off the factory floor with a couple of changes to the seats for the terrain that they were dealing with. So a pretty cool behind the scenes look at what Tesla is working on right now.
We've actually talked about these two cyber trucks before. They're the ones with the graffiti on the side and the Starlink dish on top, which is now confirmed. That is actually what they were using for the live stream. So just a pretty cool crossover there. Got the Tesla cyber truck using SpaceX's Starlink to live stream to X.
Anyway, the Tesla engineers said that the cyber truck test has been going great. They're really happy with the performance, said that they've had no real issues with this difficult terrain other than a couple of flat tires. Tesla had a support team that was there, hauling some tires ready to be replaced and just there to provide general service if needed. But overall sounded like a very successful test and the fact that they were willing to live stream something like this, I think reflects that overall and hopefully means that Tesla's getting pretty close here to being ready.
We also got some really nice shots of the cyber truck in there from the Autopian, which we're shared with them by our reader.
我们还从Autopian(我们的读者)那里得到了一些非常棒的赛博卡车照片,我们将与他们一起分享。
In some more good cyber truck news, we've got an update from Joe Tagmire, who in his drone fly over spotted what seems to be a lot of cyber truck castings starting to pile up at Giga Texas. So we've seen this a lot obviously with the Model Y. It looks like Tesla now got the 9000 tonne gigapress operating at at least a decent rate to pump out more than 100 of these. And what seems like it was a pretty short amount of time. Obviously these could have been stored elsewhere previously, but always exciting to see some evidence of higher levels of production.
And then lastly on cyber truck, we had talked previously about how the Peterson Museum was going to be auctioning off a low VIN cyber truck. That auction has now been completed. It sounds like it went for about $400,000. Car and driver couldn't verify that, but that has been the report so far on social media. I thought it might go for a bit higher than that given some of the other auctions of this type. But in this case, it's not actually VIN number one, just a quote unquote low VIN. And obviously the vehicle isn't ready there for delivery yet, which I'm guessing was the original intent. But without the vehicle sitting there ready to drive off, I'd imagine it's quite a bit less enticing, though obviously $400,000 still nothing to scoff at.
Next, we've got a quick update on China sales. This is for September. So obviously we've already got worldwide production and delivery numbers. But we'll get a little bit more insight as these China numbers come in. Wholesale sales for September were just over 74,000 vehicles, which unsurprisingly is down month over month. A lot of headlines about that today. But remember, obviously the drop here is most likely due to ramping up Project Highland. So I think this actually looks like a very strong number. We don't have the breakdown for retail or domestic sales versus exports yet, but I did see something that said 30,000 or more exports. But we should get that granularity as well as the production numbers over the next couple of days. As usual, I'm most interested in the production numbers, as that will give us our first real look at how the Highland ramp is going.
Next, we've got a quick update on the lithium refinery Tesla is working on near Corpus Christi. According to a report from local media Tesla senior manager of operations Jason Bevin recently commented that quote, we will begin commissioning the assets roughly the first of next year. And that will continue in earnest over the first half of next year. They will start ramping up production the latter half of next year end quote. He also noted that the property that Tesla has there is well suited for future expansion. So a lot to be excited about there. If this timeline is anywhere close to accurate, I think Tesla would be significantly beating most people's expectations. And that would be a really good precedent for future lithium refining plans from Tesla. And hopefully leads to a pretty significant improvement in materials costs as Tesla gets that ramped.
Alright, next up, we've got an update on V4 supercharging. So obviously, so far, we've only seen a handful of these stations being installed in Europe. But late last week, a supercharger installation in Oregon was spotted with what seems to be V4 pedestals. And then somebody on X also spotted some V4 pedestals in Sparks, Nevada. So it looks like we're at the point now where V4 supercharging is really starting to expand. And hopefully in the coming weeks, we'll be seeing a lot more of these all over the world.
Alright, last couple of things for today, we've got an update on automotive loyalty rates from S&P global. This data is for the first half of 2023 and their loyalty rate measures how often customers are returning to the same brand.
So they say that among individual brands, Tesla remains the leader with a loyalty rate of 68.4% for the first half of 2023. They note that while all Tesla models and Tesla's lineup have high retention rates, the Model 3 stands out as the clear leader with more than 74% of its returning customers remaining loyal to the brand, mostly by acquiring a Model Y.
So great to see Tesla as the leader here. And I did dig up last year's results. So for January to July last year, so very slightly different time period versus June this year, the loyalty rate at that time was 67%. So obviously a lot of talk this year about Tesla's brand and things like that. But this metric has actually improved a bit year over year. So definitely nice to see that. And also, it's important to acknowledge that even though Tesla is leading in this category, they are at a bit of a disadvantage because they don't offer vehicles in all segments, specifically pickup trucks. So if anyone returns and buys a pickup truck, they're going to fall out of this loyalty metric. Once cyber truck becomes an option, this could improve even further.
Last up, a couple of union updates first from Reuters today. They say that Tesla workers at the car maker's Brandon Berg plant are joining the IG metal union in rising numbers over concerns around health, safety, and overwork. However, this report is coming from what IG metal themselves said, and they declined to give any specifics about what quote unquote rising numbers means. It sounds like IG metal has been increasing their presence around Tesla employees and really pushing for increased support from Tesla employees. So it is something to watch. I think it's always been something to watch ever since Gigabro land was hypothesized. But I'm also going to take the words from the union directly with a little bit of a grain of salt.
And then back in the United States, the UAW, of course, on Friday, gave their weekly update. They did not actually extend strikes this week at any of Ford, Stellantis, or GM, though today they did announce strikes for Mac trucks. But no expansion for the big three last week as apparently they've been happy enough with the progress, particularly from GM, which has now agreed to include battery cell workers under the company's national UAW agreement. So that's a pretty major item we heard from Ford CEO Jim Farley last week that said that the UAW is holding the deal hostage over battery plants. And this addition from GM is only going to put more pressure on that point for Ford, obviously. And that could have some pretty long standing impacts and strategic impacts on how they invest in these areas going forward. So we'll see where Ford goes from here, maybe a little bit less important for Stellantis, but nevertheless, the interesting strikes saga continues for now.
But that are up for today, so as always, thank you for listening, make sure you subscribe and sign up for notifications. You can also find me on X hat tesla podcast. And we'll see you tomorrow for the Tuesday October 10 episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.
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