Markets Weekly July 1
发布时间 2023-07-01 22:06:10 来源
Hello my friends, today is July 1st. My name is Joseph and this is Markets Weekly. This week we're going to talk about three things. First, we're going to talk about the prospect that the Fed is again behind the curve. Secondly, we'll talk about China's Hidden Foreign Reserves, which may be enormous. And lastly, we'll talk about what's happening with the USD JPI, which appears to be hitting some pretty key levels.
大家好，今天是7月1日。我叫约瑟夫，这是《每周市场》节目。本周我们要讨论三个话题。首先，我们将讨论美联储是否再次落后于曲线。其次，我们将讨论中国的巨额隐藏外汇储备。最后，我们将谈谈美元日元汇率的情况，它似乎达到了一些相当关键的水平。
Okay, first, starting with the Fed. Now the big news from my perspective this week was that the third revision of first quarter GDP was again revised higher. It printed at 2%. Now this is interesting to me because it shows that monetary policy so far hasn't really been super effective in slowing down growth. The Fed looks at the world where you have a potential GDP growth and if you're growing faster than your potential GDP growth, that means you're growing above trend and that's inflationary. So a lot of what the Fed has been trying to do over the past year or so has been to slow things down to make sure the economy is growing below trend so that they can get inflation under control.
好的，首先从美联储开始。从我的角度来看，本周最重要的消息是第一季度国内生产总值（GDP）的第三次修订再次上调。它的数据显示为2%。这对我来说很有趣，因为它表明迄今为止货币政策在减缓经济增长方面并不十分有效。美联储关注的是一个潜在的经济增长速度，如果你的增长速度超过潜在的经济增长速度，那就意味着你的增长超过了趋势，将会产生通货膨胀。因此，美联储在过去一年左右一直在努力减缓经济增长速度，确保经济增长低于趋势水平，以便控制通货膨胀。
The Fed thinks that the potential growth for GDP, trend growth is about 1.8%. So at 2% growth, first quarter of this year, the economy continues to grow above trend despite the Fed's efforts to slow it down. So this tells me that whatever the Fed is doing, it's not working as well as they thought and we've talked about that before. They show that in their projections.
美联储认为实际国内生产总值的潜在增长率约为1.8%。所以今年第一季度2%的增长表明，尽管美联储试图放缓经济增长，但经济仍然超过趋势增长。因此，这告诉我无论美联储在做什么，它的效果都不如他们预期的那样好，我们之前也讨论过这个问题。他们的预测表明了这一点。
Now this past week, there's also this new financial index that was revealed by the Fed. In this financial index, these economists from the Fed give you a view of how they're looking at financial conditions, whether or not they're tight, whether or not they're loose and what the impact on growth will be. According to this new financial index, financial conditions are tightening and it's slowing growth. Now I make this point because this is very different from the other financial conditions indexes.
现在过去的这一周，美联储还公布了一种新的金融指数。在这个金融指数中，美联储的经济学家向你展示了他们对金融状况的看法，无论是紧缩还是宽松，以及对经济增长的影响。根据这个新的金融指数，金融状况正在收紧，并且正在减缓经济增长。我提到这一点是因为这与其他金融状况指数非常不同。
How in financial indexes like those published by Goldman Sachs or the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago actually show that financial conditions are kind of loose. And when you look at that plus the actual economic data, you have to come to the conclusion that the Fed, the things are not, the world is not behaving the way the Fed thinks it is and the Fed might be behind the curve a bit. Now there's a lot of people at the Fed who think that monetary policy takes time to work through the economy. There's a lag here and you have tons of people on Twitter who are talking about recession is imminent, it's coming, it's coming and those people have been saying the same thing for over a year now.
像高盛(Goldman Sachs)或芝加哥联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)发布的金融指数实际上显示金融条件相对宽松。当你结合实际经济数据观察这种情况时，不得不得出结论，即美联储(Fed)认为的世界并非如其所想，而且美联储可能稍微落后了一点。现在，美联储有很多人认为，货币政策需要时间才能影响经济。这里存在滞后，而在推特上有很多人在谈论不可避免的经济衰退，他们已经说了一年多了。
But when I look at the data, I'm getting the sense that the recession occurred and now we're actually re-accelerating again. So this is how I look at this. If you had financial conditions that were tight, you'd expect at least minimum expect two things. You would expect that sectors that are really interest rate sensitive like housing to slow down and you would expect financial assets to do poorly.
但当我看到数据时，我有种感觉，就是经济衰退已经发生，现在我们实际上正在重新加速。所以这就是我的看法。如果你有紧缩的金融条件，你至少会期望两件事。你会期望那些真正受利率影响的领域，比如房地产，放缓，并且你会期望金融资产表现不佳。
Now let's start with housing. Now last year, as you know, the Fed tightened and housing took a dive. You had house prices go down, more juris go up, a lot of people were complaining on the internet about this. But when you look at the data, it looks like house prices stabilized in the first quarter of this year and began to re-accelerate. If you look at housing starts, which is a leading indicator showing how much new construction is being started, it went down a lot last year in line with higher mortgage rates and all that stabilized and is now rocketing higher again.
现在让我们从住房开始。去年，正如你所知道的，美联储收紧了政策，住房市场出现了下滑。房价下跌，土地价值增加，很多人在互联网上抱怨这一情况。但是，当你看数据时，看起来今年第一季度房价稳定了下来，开始重新加速上涨。如果你看住房开工数据，这是一个领先指标，显示新建筑工程的启动量，去年与较高的抵押贷款利率相符合而大幅下降，现在开始再次迅速上升。
So it seems like the tight financial conditions had an impact, the economy shook it off and continues to accelerate again. And now let's look at financial asset prices. Last year, obviously, it was a bad year for both stocks and bonds. This year, it seems like stocks only go up. Actually, it seems really concerning to me. So if financial conditions were really tight, I don't think you'd expect stocks to go up every single day.
所以看起来紧张的财务状况确实产生了影响，但经济已经摆脱困境，并继续加速增长。现在让我们来看一下金融资产价格。去年，股票和债券显然都遭遇了不好的一年。而今年，股票似乎只会上涨。实际上，这对我来说真的让人担忧。因此，如果财务状况真的很紧张，我不认为你会预计股票每天都上涨。
So now if the Fed is looking at this new index, thinking that we're tight, but then economic data suggests otherwise, other financial conditions suggest otherwise. I think we're in a situation where the Fed is again, behind the curve, and they might be forced to catch up a bit. So I know they penciled in two more rate hikes by the end of this year. I think there's upside risk to that. And I think from what I'm watching the price action this past week, there's a little bit of indication that the bond market is becoming to realize that the Fed doesn't have things under control. And we might see yields kind of steadily move up again. It looks like they've been consolidating. But as you guys, if you follow me enough, you know that my view is that yields are going to trend higher for these coming years. And we should be above 4% by the end of the year.
现在，如果美联储正在关注这个新指数，认为我们还很紧缩，但经济数据却表明相反，其他金融条件也表明相反。我认为我们又陷入了美联储滞后的困境，他们可能被迫稍稍赶上。所以我知道他们已经计划在今年年底再加息两次。我认为这还存在上行风险。而且从我观察到的过去一周的价格走势来看，债券市场似乎开始意识到美联储无法控制局面。我们可能会看到收益率再次逐步上升。看起来它们一直在巩固。但如果你们追踪我足够久的话，你们会知道我的观点是收益率在接下来的几年里会趋高。到今年年底，我们的收益率应该会超过4%。
Okay, let's talk about the next topic. So the next topic has to do with China's Fawn Reserves. It's based on this piece by Brad Setzer, who is one of the world's foremost experts on these flows in China in particular on their Fawn Reserves. So let's give a little bit of background first, just what is a Fawn Reserve? So let's suppose that you're China.
好的，让我们来谈谈下一个话题。所以下一个话题与中国的外汇储备有关。它基于布拉德·塞策尔（Brad Setzer）的这篇文章，他是世界上对中国的外汇储备流量尤其了解的专家之一。所以先给大家一些背景，什么是外汇储备呢？假设你是中国。
China is the workshop of the world, and they sell a ton of stuff to countries all over the world, not just the US, but to Europe and to other countries as well. And so they make a whole lot of money, money denominated in foreign currency, like dollars. So they usually keep these dollars, so you know, again, they're selling a lot more than they're buying from abroad. So they're accumulating a lot of foreign currency, a lot of dollars. And they usually keep this in what's called a Fawn Reserves fund. It's held by the People's Bank of China. It's like they're running a fund that they can use to, for example, lend to their commercial banks when they need dollars or maybe stabilize their currency.
中国是世界的工厂，他们向全球各国出售大量商品，不仅仅是美国，还有欧洲和其他国家。因此，他们赚了很多钱，这些钱以外币，比如美元计算。所以他们通常会保留这些美元，你知道，他们出口要远远超过进口。所以他们积累了大量外币，大量美元。通常他们把这些资金放在所谓的外汇储备基金中，这由中国人民银行管理。就像他们在运营一个基金，可以用来向商业银行提供美元贷款，或者稳定他们的货币。
So China uses a quasi fixed floating soft peg. And so at times the central bank of China intervenes to to steady the currency there. Now here's a curious thing. China continues to sell tremendous amounts of stuff to the world, continues to earn lots of foreign currency. But if you look at official data on their foreign currency reserves, it's been plateaued around $3 trillion for the past few years. Oftentimes, so just another point, so these foreign reserves are usually held in sovereign debt. So if you oftentimes hear about China being a very large holder of treasuries, or at least agency MBS, it's because they have over $3 trillion in foreign reserves. The exact breakdown of that is a state secret, but it's commonly thought that maybe around half of that is in dollars and among the dollars, a lot of it is held in stuff like treasuries and agency MBS, which have no credit risk. Now how do you resolve this puzzle where you have continually have a current account surplus, but your farm reserves are not growing?
所以中国使用了一种准固定浮动软挂钩汇率制度。因此，在某些时候，中国央行会进行干预以稳定汇率。现在有个奇怪的现象是，中国继续向全世界大量出口商品，继续赚取大量外汇。但是，如果你看一下官方关于外汇储备的数据，过去几年一直稳定在3万亿美元左右。通常情况下，这些外汇储备通常被持有在主权债务中。所以，你经常听说中国是美国国债或机构抵押贷款支持证券的大量持有者，这是因为他们拥有超过3万亿美元的外汇储备。具体细节是一个国家的机密，但普遍认为其中大约有一半是以美元计价的，而其中很多是以国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券等形式持有的，没有信用风险。那么如何解决这个谜题呢？即你持续拥有经常项目顺差，但你的外汇储备却没有增长？
So Brad takes a look into the data and finds that, you know, if you're China, you can actually do a lot of things to kind of quote unquote hide your farm reserves. This is because in China, the government basically controls everything. So for example, one of the ways the government can go about, you know, hiding its foreign reserves is to put them in the commercial banking sector. So what Brad sees is that if you look at the data of the large commercial banks in China, which are of course controlled by the government, you'll see that they hold tremendous amounts of foreign currency assets. So one possibility is that the People's Bank of China gets all these dollars from trade, but instead of putting them in their foreign reserves, they're putting them in the commercial banking sector. So it doesn't show up in their foreign reserve funds. And you can see that in the data. It seems like the foreign currency asset holdings of the commercial banks continue to increase.
布拉德研究了数据发现，如果是中国，实际上可以做很多事情来“隐藏”农储备。这是因为在中国，政府基本上控制一切。例如，政府可以通过将外汇储备放入商业银行部门来隐藏。所以布拉德看到，如果你查看中国的大型商业银行的数据（当然是由政府控制），你会发现它们持有大量的外币资产。可能的一种情况是中国人民银行获得了所有这些来自贸易的美元，但是没有把它们放入外汇储备，而是放入了商业银行部门。所以它不会出现在他们的外汇储备资金中。你可以在数据中看到这一点。商业银行的外币资产持续增加。
Now the second thing you can do is you can put it in these policy banks or, you know, lend it to other people. Now we've all heard of China's Belt and Road Initiative, where China goes around to developing countries, let's say countries in Africa and lends them a whole bunch of money to go and build bridges and stuff like that. Now one curious thing is that these loans are actually in dollars. So you can think of it as China having a whole bunch of dollars, but instead of just putting them into Treasury securities, they funnel them into these policy banks, these initiatives, like the Belt and Road Initiative, and then go and lend them to other countries. It doesn't show up in China's foreign reserves, but it's basically held in another form.
现在，你可以做的第二件事就是把钱放入这些政策银行中，或者把它借给其他人。我们都听说过中国的一带一路倡议，中国会去发展中国家（比如非洲国家），给他们大量借款用于修建桥梁等项目。有一个奇怪的地方是，这些贷款实际上是以美元形式存在的。你可以想象，中国拥有大量美元，但他们并没有将美元全部投资到国债上，而是将其注入这些政策银行、倡议项目（比如一带一路倡议），然后将其借给其他国家。这些钱并不会反映在中国的外汇储备中，但实际上以另一种形式存在。
Now Brad finds that if you look at all this, the actual foreign reserves that China holds can be twice as high as the three trillion we see in the data. So maybe six trillion dollars worth of foreign reserves, and that's absolutely enormous. And that has implications with how we think about what China might be invested in and whether or not there's a potential for financial distress in the Chinese economy.
现在布拉德发现，如果我们综合考虑这一切，中国实际持有的外汇储备可能是我们在数据中看到的3万亿美元的两倍。所以可能达到6万亿美元的外汇储备，这是非常庞大的数额。这对我们思考中国可能投资什么以及中国经济是否存在金融困境有重要影响。
Now over the past few months, we've seen that the Chinese currency continually depreciate against the dollar. And there have been some concerns that maybe China's growth is really not good. There's financial instability. And so maybe the country might lose control of their currency since everyone wants to get money out of the country. So selling R&B and buying dollars or something like that.
在过去的几个月里，我们看到中国货币不断贬值对美元。有一些担忧认为，中国的经济增长真的不太好，存在着金融不稳定的问题。因此，可能会出现中国失去对货币的控制的情况，因为大家都想把钱转移到国外，所以会出现人民币的抛售和购买美元之类的情况。
Now if China actually has six trillion dollars in foreign reserves, there's really absolutely no worry about this. Six trillion dollars is enormous and they can easily manage any outflows. And of course, in addition to that, they also have capital controls that is to say they can forbid anyone inside the country from taking money out. So it seems like China is in terms of these current account stuff, it is pretty rock solid. There's really no concern of an outflow or some kind of balance of payment crisis, which was kind of silly to begin with.
现在，如果中国真的拥有六万亿美元的外汇储备，那就真的没有什么可担心的了。六万亿美元是一个巨额数字，他们可以轻松管理任何资金流出。当然，除此之外，他们还有资本管制，也就是说他们可以禁止国内任何人将资金转出。所以在目前这个国际收支方面，中国似乎非常牢固。真的没有资金流出或者支付平衡危机的担忧，起初担心这一点实在有点愚蠢。
And I think it's also worth noting that this is kind of a huge political problem for China because as we know from the episode with Russia that if a country behaves in a way that makes the US unhappy, the US can ultimately freeze their foreign reserves effectively confiscating it. So Russia had some money in treasuries and in dollars, but then after the sanctions, they lost access to all of that. And there's even some news that suggests that maybe the Western countries would take that money and give it to Ukraine.
我认为还值得指出的是，这对中国来说是一个巨大的政治问题，因为我们从与俄罗斯的事件中知道，如果一个国家的行为让美国感到不快，美国最终可以冻结他们的外汇储备，实际上是没收它们。所以俄罗斯在国库券和美元中有一些资金，但在制裁之后，他们失去了对这一切的使用权。甚至有一些新闻表明，西方国家可能会拿走这笔钱并给予乌克兰。
Now if you're China and you have $6 trillion and maybe you're not the best friends with the US, well, that's a huge problem. That kind of gives the US a lot of leverage over you because if you behave in a way that the US does not like, well, maybe they'll freeze all that assets and that's a lot to lose. So I think there's going to be added urgency for China to try to get out of this somehow and it's not easy.
现在，假设你是中国，拥有6万亿美元，也许你与美国并不是最好的朋友，那会是个巨大的问题。这使得美国对你有很大的影响力，因为如果你的行为不得到美国的喜欢，他们可能会冻结所有这些资产，这会是很大的损失。因此，我认为中国会更加迫切地努力摆脱这种情况，但这并不容易。
Okay. The last thing we'll talk about, it's what's happening with the USD JPY. So USD JPY obviously the exchange rate, how many yen it takes to buy a dollar has been steadily, the yen has been depreciating against the dollar. So USD JPY has been rocketing higher and it's easy to see why. So again, throughout the world, insurance have been rising steadily, fed is at 5% bank of Japan, still at negative percent. Actually they haven't raised interest rates at all. There's been a lot of speculation from the investor community thinking that, you know, Japan inflation is above their target, maybe they're going to be raising rates soon or at least get out of yield curve control.
好的。我们要讨论的最后一件事是美元兑日元的情况。显然，美元兑日元的汇率，即需要多少日元购买一美元，一直在稳步上升，日元对美元的贬值明显。因此，美元兑日元一直在快速上涨，原因很明显。再说一遍，全球各地的利率一直在稳步上升，美联储利率达到5%，而日本央行利率仍然是负利率。事实上，他们一直没有提高利率。投资者界有很多猜测，认为日本的通胀已经超过他们的目标，也许他们很快会提高利率，或者至少放弃收益率曲线控制。
Now we just heard their new governor, we don't talk this past week at Centro and he says that that's basically not going to happen. Senator Weta, when it comes to the inflation path for you, I mean I know you'd like to see it continue to rise from here, right? What would it take for you to really strongly consider abandoning the yield curve control and negative rates?
现在我们刚刚听到了他们的新州长的讲话，在Centro我们本周不讨论这个问题，他表示基本上不会发生这种情况。Weta参议员，对于通胀路径的走势，我知道您希望它继续上升，对吗？要让您真正考虑放弃利率曲线控制和负利率，需要什么条件？
So we have a forecast projection of inflation path that looks like it's going to go down for a while toward the end of this year on declines in import prices and it's spread over to domestic prices. And from there on we are forecasting some increase in the rate of inflation into 24. But we are less confident about the second part. If we become reasonable issue about the second part is going to happen, that could be a good reason for a policy change. If you see a steady increase.
我们对通胀路径进行了预测，预计在今年年底之前，随着进口价格的下降以及其对国内价格的传导，通胀将会短期内下降。此后，我们预测通胀率会有所增加，但对于第二部分，我们的信心较低。如果我们对第二部分的发生产生合理的疑虑，这可能是改变政策的良好理由。如果您观察到稳定的增长趋势。
And I also note that this is the first time I heard the new governor speak and he speaks English well, it has a pretty good sense of humor. This joke was my highlight. Governor Weta, do you worry about the impact, the lag impacts of their policies on the global economy and on your economy? Oh yes, but for ourselves, we haven't had any serious monetary tightening for three decades. I was a board member of the BLJ 25 years ago. Then the policy rate was about 20, 30 basis points. Now minus 10 basis points. And it doesn't sound like it's changing any time soon. So in terms of that, the lag and the effects of monetary policy could be at least 25 years. So monetary policy could take a long time to work. So Governor Weta is basically saying that inflation is transitory, so I'm not going to do anything about this.
我还要注意到这是我第一次听到新州长讲话，他的英语说得很好，具有相当不错的幽默感。这个笑话让我印象深刻。韦塔州长，您是否担心他们的政策对全球经济和您的经济产生滞后影响？哦，是的，但是就我们自身而言，三十年来我们没有进行严格的货币紧缩政策。我在25年前是B L J的董事会成员。那时的政策利率大约是20、30个基点。而现在是负10个基点。而且听起来它似乎不会在短期内改变。所以从这一方面来看，货币政策的滞后和影响可能至少需要25年。因此货币政策可能需要很长时间才能发挥作用。所以韦塔州长基本上是在说通货膨胀是短暂的，所以我对此不会采取任何行动。
Now this may sound like a green light for the yen to continue to depreciate against the dollar as it has been. But we're also approaching levels where in the past the Ministry of Finance in Japan, who is the organization that actually controls the currency, is trying to slow it down and might intervene. So the way that they were intervened, of course, is that they will sell dollars and buy yen. So that makes the currency stronger. Now the last time they did this, it led for the, it led the currency pair to basically stop in its tracks and reverse. So as we approach this level, we want to focus on whether or not this, this intervention will happen again.
现在这可能听起来像是日元将继续贬值对美元的绿灯，因为它一直在贬值。但我们也临近过去，日本财务省这个实际控制货币的机构试图放慢并可能介入的水平。所以他们的干预方式，当然是卖美元，买日元。这使得货币更强势。上一次他们这样做，导致货币对基本上停滞不前并发生逆转。因此，在我们接近这个水平时，我们想关注是否会再次发生这种干预。
So this matters to the broader market in a couple of ways.
这对广泛市场有几个方面的重要意义。
One small way and another bigger way.
一种小方法和另一种更大的方式。
A small way, of course, is that if you have to sell dollars and buy yen, where do you get those dollars?
当然，一个小方法是，如果你必须卖美元购买日元，你从哪里得到这些美元呢？
You have to sell treasuries usually.
通常情况下，你需要出售国库券。
So if you're selling treasuries to get cash, then that's some small upward pressure on yields, it really depends on how big the intervention is.
所以，如果你卖掉国债来获取现金，那么这将对收益率产生一些小幅上涨的压力，实际上取决于干预的规模大小。
It's usually not enough to make a difference for the yields.
通常来说，这通常无法对产量产生足够的影响。
The second thing that's more interesting is that usually a UFC JPI is like an overall risk indicator in the markets.
更有趣的第二个事情是，通常情况下，UFC JPI在市场上充当整体风险指标。
If you look at what's happening over the past few months, no, yen depreciates, nasa goes higher. This is a relationship that we've seen on and off over the past few years.
如果你看过过去几个月所发生的事情，就会发现，日元并没有升值，而纳斯达克却有所上涨。这是我们在过去几年中一直观察到的一种关系，时有时无。
So if you have the yen, again, stopped and strengthening that is to say reversing its trend, UFC JPI going lower, you could see that being a pullback for the risk asset markets as well.
如果日元再次停止并加强，也就是说逆转其趋势，那么你会发现UFC JPI会走低，这可能会导致风险资产市场出现回调。
Now, it's an interesting relationship.
现在，这是一段有趣的关系。
One way that I think about this is maybe the investors in Japan that take their money out of Japan and buy risk assets in the US.
我对此的一种思考方式是，或许日本的投资者将他们的资金从日本撤出，并购买美国的风险资产。
So when they do this though and say the nasa goes up, well, they're making money on the appreciation and NASDAQ.
当他们这样做并且说纳斯达克指数上升时，他们实际上是通过纳斯达克指数的升值来赚钱。
And as the yen depreciates against the dollar, they're also making money on the FX trade.
随着日元对美元贬值，他们还通过外汇交易赚钱。
So it's kind of a double play.
所以这有点像双赢的局面。
So it's been a really good trade if that's what they've been doing, but it's a yen does not continue to depreciate.
如果他们一直在做这个交易，那么这是一笔非常成功的交易，但是如果日元不再继续贬值，情况就会有所不同。
Maybe they'll come back on that.
也许他们会在此事上回来。
意思是，或许他们会重新考虑这个问题。
Okay.
好的。
So that's all I've prepared this week.
所以这就是我本周准备的所有内容了。
Thanks so much for tuning in. Happy 4th of July.
非常感谢收看。祝大家独立日快乐！
And as usual, if you're interested, as usual, if you like what I'm producing, remember to like and subscribe.
并且像往常一样，如果你对此感兴趣，如同往常一样，如果你喜欢我所创作的内容，请记得点赞和订阅。
And please check out my blog, FitGuide.com.
请访问我的博客FitGuide.com。
It's a subscription service, but it provides my latest thoughts on the markets.
这是一个订阅服务，但它提供了关于市场的我最新的想法。
And also check out central banking 101 if you like free courses on how the macro world works.
如果你喜欢免费课程了解宏观世界的运作方式，还可以查看一下中央银行101。
All right.
好的。
Talk to you guys next week.
下周再和你们聊。
Thank you so much for singing along.
非常感谢你一起唱歌。