Tesla Dominates Registration Data / Giga Shanghai Expansion / Rivian Acquisition ⚡️

Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis, quick shoutout to my new is Patrons Gary W and PMOC thank you for choosing to support the channel.

欢迎来到Electrified，我是主持人Dylan Loomis。先向我的新赞助者Gary W和PMOC致以快速的感谢，感谢你们选择支持本频道。

A thread to be aware of compared to May of last year the average price for auto insurance is up 17%. The chief economist at Moody said the pandemic has been really disruptive to the auto repair business. Many auto body shops and auto maintenance companies went out of business during that time. When it comes to the inflation rate in May we have motor vehicle repair and motor vehicle insurance leading the way.

和去年五月相比，汽车保险的平均价格上涨了17%，需要注意这个趋势。Moody的首席经济学家表示，疫情对汽车维修业务造成了极大的冲击，许多汽车修理厂和汽车维护公司在这段时间内破产。就五月的通货膨胀率而言，车辆维修和车辆保险是领头羊。

What does this mean for Tesla? Well, more of an opportunity for their mantra, the best service is no service, but of course with Tesla insurance the ability to hopefully eventually lower better rates with the more data they have as that continues to roll out across the US.

这对特斯拉意味着什么？这将为他们的口号提供更多的机会，即最好的服务是无需服务，当然，通过特斯拉保险，随着他们获得更多数据的不断推出，有望降低更好的费率。

Tesla Scope is reporting that the Model Y performance and the Gigatexas made Model Y long range now have a new rear drive unit. Apparently this started June 13th. This goes contrary to some other reporting that we've heard, but they are saying they're seeing an increase in Model Y's with hardware for on their platform. Presumably though, it's still in small numbers. For this new rear drive unit all they can say so far is that it has subtle efficiency improvements and utilizes recycled materials, hopefully more to come when they're able to share.

据特斯拉范围报道，Model Y性能版和Gigatexas制造的Model Y长续航版现在配备了新的后驱动单元。据说这项更改始于6月13日。这与我们听到的一些其他报道相反，但他们称他们正在看到越来越多的Model Y车型采用了新的平台硬件。然而，预计这仍只是个别车型。对于这个新的后驱动单元，他们目前只能说明其具有微妙的效率提高，并利用了回收材料，希望有更多的信息在他们能够分享时公布。

Perhaps even better they said last night with the updates 2023.12.10 and 11. These are the first updates containing the FSD beta code pushed to the Tesla production and FSD enrolled vehicles across all regions. The layman's explanation for this one is that historically Tesla has had separate branches, which sometimes would keep people with the FSD beta weeks behind in getting some of the new software features that you can see in the UI. Meaning this could be Tesla looking to get away from that separate branch model. And as you can see it looks like the software labeling for FSD and the software has been slightly adjusted.

昨晚更新的2023.12.10和11版本据说甚至更好。这是首批推向Tesla生产车辆和全区域FSD注册车辆的FSD测试代码更新。通俗的解释是，历史上Tesla一直有分支，有时会让使用FSD测试版本的人落后于UI中的新软件功能。这意味着这可能是Tesla试图摆脱这种分支模式。而且，您可以看到FSD的软件标签和软件似乎已经略微调整了。

We got a new Tesla stock note from UBS after their most recent Gigabrelin factory tour. Of course they said the factory is running at much higher outputs compared to their last visit quarter three of last year. We've already covered that in the past, but they did say regarding gigacasting Tesla now has six machinery units installed and another two are to be installed soon. For now Tesla is only using the gigacasted rear underbody with a conventional 2170 pack while the front underbody is in trial production. Only after this is fully ramped Tesla can then use the 4680 structural pack. All batteries currently arrive as finished packs from China. The cell building looks finished from the outside but there is no production yet and a timeline for ramping up production of that was not provided. For me the biggest takeaway was about the front underbody being in trial production. In the past we had heard that there were some fubs on site but perhaps they were sent in from somewhere else. So to hear that the machines presumably are up and running and in trial production would be a good sign.

我们收到了瑞银UBS最新的特斯拉股票研究报告，报告是在他们最近拜访吉卡布林工厂之后发布的。当然，他们表示这个工厂的产能比去年第三季度他们上次参观时要高得多。我们之前已经报道过这个消息，但他们提到特斯拉的吉卡铸造现在已经安装了六台机器，并且还有另外两台即将安装。目前，特斯拉仅使用了吉卡铸造的后底盘与常规的2170电池组，而前底盘正在试制中。只有在这个试制阶段完全稳定后，特斯拉才能使用4680结构电池组。现有的所有电池都是作为成品电池从中国运来的。从外观上看，电池生产线已经完成了，但是生产尚未开始，关于大规模生产的时间表也没有提供。对我来说，最重要的收获是前底盘正在试制中。在过去，我们听说有一些试制品在现场，但可能是从其他地方寄来的。所以听到这些机器可能已经开始试制生产，这是一个好的迹象。

We have Antoine Arno sharing a picture of his pops Bernard Arno and Elon Musk. Bernard is the owner of LVMH probably the world's biggest luxury brand and cosmetics company. They are the ones that bought Tiffany and Ko which was one of the biggest deals in history in that space. And the last time I checked these two men were at the top of the list for the Forbes richest men in the world. I'm just speculating here but my guess is that at least part of this conversation had to do with Twitter and advertising maybe the budget for LVMH them understanding how Elon is looking to navigate that platform going forward. In case you haven't been watching right now in the EU there's a lot going on when it comes to Twitter and regulations. So you know just a casual $500 billion lunch conversation on a Friday. And on this one I would just say Alexandra, Tesla boomer mama just close your eyes for the next few seconds. There's an awful lot of smiling going on in this picture. At least for right now this is the only update we get.

我们有Antoine Arno分享了一张他的父亲Bernard Arno和Elon Musk合照的照片。Bernard是LVMH的所有者，可能是全球最大的奢侈品牌和化妆品公司。他们购买了蒂芙尼和Co，这是该领域历史上最大的交易之一。最后一次我查看时，这两个人是福布斯全球最富有的人之一。我只是在猜测，但我猜这次交谈至少部分涉及Twitter和广告，也许是LVMH的预算和他们了解Elon如何继续使用该平台。如果你还没有关注最近EU中涉及Twitter和法规的问题。所以你知道，这只是一个轻松的星期五午餐聊天，至少价值5000亿美元。对于这个问题，我只想说，Alexandra，特斯拉的 boomer 妈妈，闭上你的眼睛几秒钟吧。照片中有许多微笑，至少现在这是我们得到的唯一更新。

I got this email from Tesla this morning assuming many of you did as well but to celebrate 500,000 power walls installed globally Tesla's offering a $500 rebate on all power wall units installed and registered before October 31st of this year. There are some stipulations and things of that nature but just putting it on your radar if you're in the market. Speaking of incentives over in China right now for model 3 rear wheel drive deliveries they're offering an 8000 yuan insurance subsidy which is equivalent to about $1,100 US dollars. Just a reminder Tesla has plenty of levers to pull if they need to.

今天早上我收到了特斯拉的一封电子邮件，我猜很多人也收到了。为了庆祝全球安装了500,000个电池储能墙，特斯拉将在今年10月31日之前安装和注册的所有电池储能墙单位上提供500美元的折扣。虽然有一些规定和其他事项，但如果你在市场上，可以考虑一下。说到激励措施，现在在中国，购买3型后驱车型，他们提供了一项8000元的保险补贴，相当于约1100美元。只是提醒大家，特斯拉有足够的杠杆可以拉动，如果他们需要的话。

We also get an update from Experian when it comes to EV registrations in the United States so far in January through April compared to the same time last year. No surprise the Model YN3 topped the list and it's not really close. Third place is most likely going to end production later this year so the Volkswagen ID4 would be in that next up spot. I'd also point out that from the same time last year the Model Y registrations have essentially doubled up basically 100%.

我们还从艾珂莱公司得到了有关今年1月至4月美国电动汽车注册情况的更新，与去年同期相比。不出所料，Model YN3位居榜首，而且领先优势不小。第三名很可能今年晚些时候就要停产，因此大众ID4将成为紧随其后的下一个车型。此外，值得一提的是，与去年同期相比，Model Y的注册量实际上翻了一倍，增长了接近100%。

And we know there are reasons for this for it has been retooling production early this year but the Mach-E and the F-150 Lightning failed to crack the 10,000 unit mark over the span of 4 months to start this year. And here we're looking at the luxury rankings for the same time period but this time across overall brands. Again no surprise Tesla far and away in the first place spot but also still growing at the highest rate compared to the same time frame last year also coming from the highest base.

我们知道这其中有原因，因为今年早些时候就进行了生产改型，但是Mach-E和F-150 Lightning在今年前4个月内未能突破1万辆的销售额。现在我们来看同一时间段的豪华品牌排名。毫不奇怪，特斯拉遥遥领先，而且相比去年同期仍以最高的增长率增长，也是从最高的基础上增长的。

The only other automaker on this list above a 40% growth rate is Audi at 43 and Tesla is at 52. And I want you to see my face for this one. I would also point out that last year Tesla outsold BMW by about 35,000 units over this time period which was about 33% higher. Fast forward to the same time period this year Tesla has outsold BMW by nearly 100% almost doubling them up so their lead is actually growing.

在这份名单上，唯一另一个增长率超过40%的汽车制造商是奥迪，增长率为43%，特斯拉则为52%。我想让你看到我的表情。我还要指出，去年特斯拉的销量比宝马高出约35,000辆，在同一时期内高出约33%。快进到今年同一时期，特斯拉的销量已经几乎翻了一番，比宝马高出将近100%，他们的领先优势实际上正在扩大。

Remember when we talked about the reporting about Elon's visit to China how they said nothing got done and I said that's a premature conclusion that in the weeks ahead we would probably get a slow drip of information well that drip has started. First we get a bit more color on Tesla's expansion in Shanghai. Currently it's hinging on China's approvals to develop 70 hectares or 172 acres of former farmland that is currently overgrown with wildflowers.

还记得我们谈论过有关埃隆访问中国的报道，他们说什么也没办成，我说这是一个过早的结论，未来几周我们可能会逐渐接收到一些信息，现在这个情况已经开始了。首先，我们了解到了关于特斯拉在上海扩展的更多情况。目前这事与中国的审批有关，他们希望开发 70 公顷或 172 英亩的农田，现在这里已经长满野花。

This checks out with what we touched on a few weeks ago that the holdup was based on land but now we learn there's more. China's state planner has been cautious about approving new EV production plans by all automakers because of concerns about overcapacity and a deepening price for launched by Tesla. This is just from one auto advisor in the region but he's saying that China could have excess auto production capacity of about 10 million vehicles per year.

这一消息与我们几周前所讨论的关于土地问题的情况相符，但现在我们了解到还有更多的原因。中国国家计划委员会一直对所有汽车制造商的新能源汽车生产计划审批持谨慎态度，因为他们担心产能过剩问题，同时特斯拉带来了更深层次的价格竞争。这只是该地区的一位汽车顾问的观点，但他认为中国每年的汽车产能过剩可能达到1千万辆左右。

We've known now for a long time Tesla has wanted to double down in China because they can make cars so affordably in that region. And of course most of the EV supply chain starts and ends over there. And that analyst said you could argue that as Tesla I've got new products I need a new factory but from the Chinese government point of view all they see is a market that's oversupplied. The latest extra production capacity number being thrown around is 450,000 units of annual capacity at a new location that would be about 2 miles from the current giga Shanghai and yes this topic of expansion did come up on Elon's trip no surprise.

我们早已知道特斯拉计划在中国加大投资力度，因为他们在该地区制造汽车的成本非常低。当然，大部分电动汽车的供应链起点和终点都在中国。有分析师称，你可以认为作为特斯拉，我需要新产品和新工厂，但从中国政府的角度来看，他们只看到了一个供过于求的市场。最近有一个被传闻的额外产能数字为每年45万辆汽车在距离现有上海超级工厂约2英里的新地点，这个扩建话题在埃隆的访问中也被提到，这一点并不令人惊讶。

Elon told a small group of Tesla staff that he saw a positive progress in discussions about the expansion but did not elaborate. Personally I would expect some sort of announcement on a Shanghai expansion in the next 6 to 9 months.

埃隆对一小组特斯拉员工表示，他看到了有关扩张的讨论取得了积极进展，但没有详细说明。我个人预计在未来6至9个月内会有上海扩张的某种公告。

So I'm going to explain why GM and other car manufacturers have not created Tesla and why Tesla is successful. What is the difference? General Motors actually did come out with this electric vehicle 1 EV1 and it's. Yes you remember that EV1. Yes. And actually so I thought when that came out. It was 97. Yeah that sounds about right. I would have.

我要解释一下为什么通用汽车和其他汽车制造商没有创造出特斯拉，特斯拉之所以成功的原因。这两者有什么区别？通用汽车实际上推出了这款电动汽车EV1，你记得吧。是的，你没错。当EV1推出时，我认为那是在1997年左右。没错，大概是那个时候。

I expected there would be an EV2, EV3 and so forth and if they had done that actually there would be no need for Tesla. But for reasons that aren't clear they GM recalled all of the EV1's even from customers that really wanted to keep the cars they recalled the cars and they crushed them in the junkyard. It still blows my mind that they did this because the people who had the EV1's they loved the car so much they held a candle at vigil at the junkyard where the cars were crushed. Okay like it was like someone was getting killed.

我原先以为通用汽车公司会继续推出EV2、EV3等版本，如果他们确实这样做了，那么特斯拉就不会存在了。然而，出于未知的原因，通用汽车公司召回了所有EV1，即使有一些客户非常想继续使用这些汽车，他们也被迫交回汽车并在废钢厂处置。我至今仍然无法理解为什么他们要这么做，因为那些拥有EV1的人非常喜欢这辆车，他们在废钢厂点蜡烛悼念那些被压碎的车辆，就像有人被杀害了一样。

You know like. And it's like if someone is holding a candle at vigil because they love your product so much maybe you should make more of it. You know I mean it's like pretty rare for candle at vigil to be helpful products. So I don't understand why they didn't do more and they should have and there would be the leader in electric vehicles today but they didn't. And so there was a need for Tesla because the time of starting Tesla there were no electric vehicles being made.

你知道嘛，就好像有人在守夜，手持一支蜡烛，因为他们对你的产品爱得深沉，那么你应该多生产些呀。我的意思是，这种情况下能有蜡烛守夜对产品有益的机会真的很少。所以我不明白为什么他们没有做更多，他们本该是电动车的领导者，但他们没有这么做。因此，特斯拉出现的时代背景所需，当时没有其他电动车在生产。

I mean in the case of both Tesla and SpaceX I thought the chance of success was maybe 10% so I just thought like I thought it would be successful I thought it would fail. And boy are we glad they did try and didn't fail. I mean when I've created I think the stock price is too high almost always it goes up. So I don't know it's a strange thing. So I guess in the case of Tesla the really the value of the company is primarily on the basis of autonomy.

我觉得对于特斯拉和SpaceX公司，它们的成功率只有10％，所以我原本认为它们注定会失败。不过那时我们很庆幸它们尝试了一下并没有失败。对于我创立的公司，当我认为股票价格太高时，它通常会上涨，这是一件奇怪的事情。因此，在特斯拉的情况下，公司的价值主要是基于自主性。

So in my opinion because if you look at our total vehicle output it's you know it'll be almost 2 million vehicles this year or something like that but that's still only 2% of total vehicle production. So then why is our market cap so high? It's because the potential for autonomy is that the value of autonomy is so high that even if you have a discounted percentage probability of autonomy happening that is still incredibly valuable.

据我看来，因为如果你看看我们的总汽车产量，它将接近200万辆车，但仍然只占总汽车产量的2％左右。那么，为什么我们的市值那么高呢？因为自动驾驶的潜力是非常高的，即使你对自动驾驶发生的概率进行折扣，它仍然非常有价值。

So the average passenger car is used only about 10 hours a week so an average of about one and a half hours a day. But if you have an autonomous robo taxi the utilities might be 50 or 60 hours a week out of 168 hours. So now you've got a vehicle that costs the same but has 5 times the utility. So it's so gigantic a change that that's really I think the main driver of our value. And although I've said this before I think we will solve autonomy soon.

平均乘用车每周只使用约10小时，即每天约1.5小时。但是，如果你拥有一辆自主驾驶的机器人出租车，它的使用时间可能达到每周50到60个小时，占168个小时的大部分。所以现在你拥有一辆成本相同但效用增加5倍的车辆。这是如此巨大的变化，以至于我认为这是我们价值的主要推动力。虽然我之前已经说过，但我认为我们很快就能解决自主性问题。

Did you expect that Tesla will be at this level of market cap? No I did not expect Tesla would be at this level. Because it's just extraordinary. It's fair. Either way. I mean I don't set the price so you don't set it.

你预料到特斯拉会达到这个市值水平吗？不，我没有预料到特斯拉会达到这个水平。因为这太不寻常了。无论如何，这是公平的。我指的是，我没有设置价格，你也没有设置。

This line that Elon likes to keep talking about about Tesla's valuation being heavily tied to robo taxis obviously makes sense but I would actually push on it a little bit because at least right now most of Wall Street really isn't attributing any value to Tesla for this business line. And of course a lot of us know all of the depths and intricacies of why Tesla is so different that we've been talking about now for the last few years.

这句话是埃隆喜欢谈论的关于特斯拉估值与自动驾驶出租车紧密联系的问题，显然很有道理，但实际上我认为还需要对此有所追究，因为至少目前，华尔街大多数人并没有将特斯拉在此业务线上的价值计算进去。当然，我们中的许多人都知道特斯拉之所以与众不同的深层次和复杂性，我们已经谈论了这个问题好几年了。

So the way I always interpret Elon when he says that is he just loves reinforcing the magnitude that most people can't really comprehend when it comes to robo taxis and FSD. But even taking that away hypothetically there's still a very valuable business left at Tesla as it stands today. And I think all of you get that and understand that but in case if you don't I just want to make that very clear.

我个人对埃隆说的话的理解是，他喜欢强调自动驾驶出租车和全自动驾驶技术所涉及的巨大规模，让大多数人难以理解。但是，即使把这个假设排除在外，特斯拉今天所拥有的非常有价值的业务依然存在。我认为你们大家都能理解这个道理，但如果你不理解，我想要讲清楚这一点。

Today from Reuters we have SK Signet who counts Electrify America and EVGo and others as customers saying they've started development of ultra fast chargers that will simultaneously charge EVs with the NACS and CCS. Earlier this month SK opened its first United States manufacturing center in Texas with the capacity to make more than 10,000 ultra fast chargers per year. And yes it's already been added to the NACS adoption tracker on EV station.

今天来自路透社的消息：SK Signet公司已经开始开发超高速充电器，可同时为使用NACS和CCS标准的电动汽车充电，该公司的客户包括Electrify America和EVGo等。本月早些时候，SK公司在得克萨斯州开设了其首个美国制造中心，年产能可超过10,000个超高速充电器。是的，已经将其添加到EV充电站的NACS采用跟踪器上了。

We got yet another shot of the Model 3 Project Hotland but this time you can see a little bit of the potentially new rear taillight. This tweet is also out there getting a bit of traction and I just want to clarify this little ditty over on the right. This is a render this has nothing to do officially from Tesla if that wasn't clear. Although yeah I definitely like how it looks. Here's a zoomed in image if you want to take a second and look around and don't forget if you're on mobile you can still pinch and zoom in on videos if you forgot about that feature.

我们又得到了一次Model 3项目的Hotland照片，这次你可以看到一点潜在的新后灯。这条推文也正在获得一些关注，我只是想澄清右边的这个小小插曲。这是一种渲染，它与特斯拉的官方没有任何关系，如果这不清楚的话。虽然我确实喜欢它的外观。如果你想花点时间观察，下面附有一个放大图像。不要忘记，如果你是在移动设备上观看，你仍然可以进行捏合和放大视频，如果你忘记了这个功能。

I also just want to mention some people are taking this rumor and making it to seem like it's definitely happening that Tesla is showcasing the new Model 3 Project Hotland at the Shenzhen Auto Show. Just to be clear this event is happening today but so far as far as we can all tell that is just a rumor.

我也想提一下，有些人正在把这个谣言传得好像特斯拉将在深圳汽车展上展示新的Model 3 Hotland项目肯定会发生一样。只想清楚，这个事件今天确实在进行，但据我们大家所知，这只是个谣言。

Rivian's finance chief said he expects demand for pickups and their SUV to remain stable throughout the year despite all of the macro noise. He also said Rivian is ramping up production of its in-house drive unit ahead of plan. Our priority right now is ramping production and driving down costs so that we're starting to really reduce the level of cash burn within the business.

Rivian的财务主管表示，尽管受到宏观因素的影响，他预计货车和SUV的需求将在今年保持稳定。他还表示Rivian正在加快生产自主的驱动装置，以提前完成计划。我们目前的优先任务是加速生产，降低成本，从而真正减少企业的现金燃烧水平。

This one is just great to hear and we'll be giving it up for Illinois in a moment. Newly built and renovated homes in Illinois will next year be required to support EV charging stations in their garages and parking spaces under a new state law. This law goes into effect January 1st, 2024. A new single family residence or a small multifamily residence shall have at least one EV capable parking space for each residential unit that has dedicated parking.

这是一则好消息，我们马上要祝贺伊利诺伊州。根据新的州法规，明年在伊利诺伊州新建和翻新的住宅将需要在车库和停车位上支持电动汽车充电站。该法律将于2024年1月1日生效。新的单户家庭住宅或小型多户住宅必须为每个有专用停车位的住宅单元提供至少一个可支持电动汽车停车的停车位。

Additionally, large multifamily residential buildings like a block of apartments or condos that are being renovated by a developer, converting it into an association must have 100% of its total parking spaces EV capable. The law also allows for renters to install EV charging equipment in their parking spaces at their own expense.

此外，像公寓或公寓大楼等大型的多户住宅建筑，如果被开发商进行翻新改造以变成一个协会，必须将全部的停车位都配备电动汽车充电设施。该法律也允许租户自己花费安装电动汽车充电设备在他们的停车位上。

Ford has broken ground on its new EV battery park in Michigan but there was a special meeting held last night. Apparently some residents are not happy with the recent decision that changed this area of land to commercial. Basically this is a nimby situation so we'll see what happens in the next few days.

福特汽车公司在密歇根州的新电动汽车电池园区进行了奠基，但昨晚举行了一次特别会议。显然，一些居民对最近的决定不满意，这个土地区域改变为商业用途。基本上这是一个"Nimby"的情况，让我们看看接下来几天会发生什么事情。

We have Electric reporting that Rivian is set to buy a better route planner.

我们得到了消息，Rivian即将购买更好的路线规划器。

Most importantly Rivian has no plans to shut down either the front end service for other EV owners who want to use a better route planner on non Rivian EVs nor the back end service for other car makers.

最重要的是，Rivian没有关闭为其他电动汽车车主提供更好的路线规划器的前端服务，也没有关闭为其他汽车制造商提供的后端服务。

And while these comments are good to hear from Rivian now, I will not be surprised if in the next few years this slowly becomes more of a Rivian only thing or maybe they start charging fees, royalties, whatever for other automakers to actually use this service.

虽然现在Rivian这样的评论听起来很不错，但我不会感到惊讶，如果在未来几年，这逐渐成为Rivian独有的东西，或者他们开始收取费用、版税或其它费用，让其他汽车制造商实际使用这项服务。

So it seems like Rivian is not that interested in getting its hands on Tesla's route planning software so we'll see what that means for Nax adoption and all of that in the weeks ahead.

看起来Rivian并不那么渴望拥有特斯拉的路线规划软件，所以我们将会在未来几周看到这对于Nax（电动汽车充电标准）的采用和相关情况意味着什么。

You can find me on Twitter at Dylan Loomis22.

你可以在Twitter上找到我，用户名是Dylan Loomis22。

Hope you guys have a wonderful and a safe weekend. Please like the video if you did and a huge thank you to all of my patreon supporters.

希望你们周末愉快、平安。如果你们喜欢视频的话，请点赞。特别感谢我在Patreon的支持者。