Welcome to Electrified, it's your host, Dileynumus. Quick shout out to my newest patron, Alan Jay. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. And a quick shout out to Omar P. Thank you for using my Tesla referral link and congratulations on your new Tesla. Alex Potter from Piper Sandler is one of the few Wall Street analysts that I do have some respect for. He increased his Tesla stock price target from 315 up to 500, but the reason is more important. He said, we think investors are starting to appreciate Tesla's potential in real world AI. And as a result, portfolio managers are more willing to entertain upside scenarios. And for the first time, Piper Sandler is now modeling a contribution from FSD licensing. It values Tesla's existing business at just below $300 per share, inclusive of FSD. But Piper says it has not attempted to forecast a contribution from Tesla's more ambiguous AI opportunities most likely, optimists. And not only optimists, but neural net training as a service. They think the first half of 2025 will be choppy for Tesla, but it remains one of its top buy and hold ideas. As we've been saying the past few months, some portfolio managers are finally starting to wake up to Tesla's AI potential. Their $500 price target implies 17% upside. We got the Tesla China weekly number. It came in at 10,000, comparing that to week three in quarter four, that number was 13,200. Thus quarter over quarter, Tesla China is up 0.9%. And comparing this reading to week three of Q1 last year, that was 11,700. So now year over year, Tesla China is up 4.5%. Just remember, these readings over the next few weeks are likely to be volatile with the switchover to the new Model Y out of Shanghai. The weekly readings may be a bit lower until March or so once deliveries of the new Model Y are expected to begin. In the rumor category is the word that there have been nearly 100,000 orders for the new Model Y in the past 10 days. Burl energy actually shared the source for this rumor. And if you translate this from Chinese, it should say as of January 1st until now, Tesla's total orders have been 79,200, 5,700 of those for the Model 3. The remaining 73,400 would be for the Model Y and of those 14,000 would be for the old outgoing version, aka 59,000 for the new Model Y. And yes, I'm aware these translated numbers don't add up perfectly. However, it just gets us in the neighborhood again for this rumor.
For me, rather than worrying about specific numbers, I take it as a general trend that orders for the new Model Y are very strong. But we will not see that in the data for another month or two. If you are in the market for an older Model Y, now is definitely the time to move as there are significant discounts around the world. Just one example in Australia, the older performance Model Y is being discounted by up to $8,000. Just a PSA, wherever you're at, if you're interested, be sure to check the discounts in your region. Here's a look at the rear light bar on the new Model Y at night. I know the quality here is very poor, but you get the idea, and yes, the lighting is hard to miss. And you'll notice two lights illuminating where the license plate is set to go. So we'll see if that's a Chinese-only spec, or if that rolls out globally too. And just to confirm that rendering that was shared last week, if you saw it, of the rear of the new Model Y and how this light design is actually quite 3D. So this indentation look on the back of the vehicle is confirmed on a real model.
And here's a quick video of the first red variant I've seen out in the wild. Jordan from the limiting factor had a great find from LinkedIn and specifically Ulong Leus profile, the staff materials engineer at Tesla. His experience says led four LFP pilot trials over two tons dry mass and one LFP production trial, 100 ton scale dry mass. In charge of raw material qualification and analytics and scrolling ahead and final LFP powder analytics and pouch cell evaluations. We talked about Tesla's new LFP battery last week and what Jordan found seems to be adding to that. Jordan said in the past three years, Tesla has run several multi-ton production trials for LFP cathode material. Translation may be enough cathode material for several hundred vehicles. Jordan said Tesla has everything they need to produce LFP battery cells in house that includes potentially prismatic LFP cells with a wet coating process from Nevada and 4680 LFP cells with a dry coating process from Austin. Knowing Jordan, I can guarantee he would want me to highlight the fact that this is potentially a.k.a. not a guarantee. Specifically these two different processes. Furthering Jordan's speculation, these trials were either one in house using the process Tesla unveiled at Battery Day and their recent patent application that we touched on last week and or two in house using similar processes to those of the most advanced manufacturers in China, but it appeared to be more lab or bench scale in nature. But the main takeaway here is that over the past few years, it's now very likely that Tesla has been working on making its own LFP battery in house.
Here it is, the FTC is officially taking action against GM. Why? Over allegations they collected, used, and sold drivers precise geolocation data and driving behavior information from millions of vehicles without obtaining their consent. Many consumers were unaware of these practices in complaint to GM after finding out that their driving habits were being used by insurance companies to set their rates. And the data was not just sold to insurance companies, but also to third parties, including consumer reporting agencies. So as we've been saying, after the 2017 broadband consumer privacy repeal that now allows internet service providers to sell web browsing history and other sensitive data to marketers and financial firms without consumers consent, it's factually obvious the world is spying on us at every turn. An easy way to protect your family from all of this is signing up with a reputable, well known and trusted VPN like Surfshark, the sponsor of this video. I first started using Surfshark years ago after seeing Matt Farrell talk about it on Undecided and I wanted to support his work. Surfshark encrypts all of your online activity and masks, your real IP address, so no one. Not even your internet service provider can track your data. Surfshark also has a clean web feature to remove those annoying ads, plus one Surfshark account can be used on an unlimited number of devices so you can protect your whole family. And the truth is that really only scratches the surface of the features that Surfshark has to offer. So if you wanna check it out for yourself, you can head to surfshark.com slash electrified for four extra months of Surfshark for free. The link is below.
Inauguration day was quite busy with Trump signing plenty of executive orders, but the question now remains, how is this all going to impact Tesla? So for the next few minutes, I'm going to try to break it down given what we know right now. First though, it's important to note, Trump did invite Xi Jinping to the inauguration, but he ended up sending China's VP, Han Zhang, in his place. Zhang did actually sit down with Elon, and he said he hoped US companies would take root in China. He said he welcomed Tesla and other US companies to share in the benefits of China's development to contribute to China-US relations. But the more interesting takeaway is that Xi Jinping and Trump did have a phone call, and the word is that they were both upbeat after talking to each other, and Trump called it a very good one.
But shifting back to the US, here's the executive order that's the most relevant. It's titled Unleashing American Energy. The aim is to eliminate the EV mandate and promote true consumer choice. They'll do this by removing regulatory barriers to motor vehicle access, by ensuring a level regulatory playing field, by terminating where appropriate state emissions waivers that function to limit sales of gas powered cars, and by considering the elimination of unfair subsidies and other ill-conceived government-imposed market distortions that favor EVs over other tech. And the goal is within 30 days to begin implementing a new action plan. Further down, it talks about terminating the Green New Deal. All agencies shall immediately pause the Disbursement of Funds appropriated through the Inflation Reduction Act.
That includes both NEVI and CFI, which are charger funding programs we've been talking about now for months. And here, within 90 days, all agency heads shall submit a report to the director of the NEC. That details the findings of this review. Just to be clear, there really is no overarching EV mandate. It's just most of the time when people say that, they're referring to the EPA emission requirements. From what I'm gathering, it looks like Trump will not need legislation to reduce these EPA emission targets, but rather it needs to go through a regulatory process. In short, the administration would have to propose new rules, then allow for public comment, respond to those, and then they could issue a final ruling. And typically, this process can take a few months.
Remember, under these rules, automakers can hit these emission targets, selling whatever type of vehicles they'd like. It's just the goals are set to kick in later toward the end of this decade. So Trump is likely to relax some of these EPA standards, but that's not the whole story. Where the EO talked about these state emission waivers, the big one is California and the carb. Right now, there's a federal waiver that allows California to preempt the EPA. And other states have adopted California's standards as well. If Trump wins in removing that, that would mean EPA standards govern all states. And this is where some of the focus shifts to Tesla because carb standards are the source of a significant portion of Tesla's ZEV credits. You know, the ones that have generated around $10 billion for Tesla over the past six years, which is about 25% of the $36 billion in operating profit Tesla has reported over the same time.
A very important distinction though, this $10 billion figure is from Tesla's global ZEV credits, including China, Europe, and the US. The simplest way to put it, lower emission requirements will result in less regulatory credit sales for Tesla. To what degree? It's far too early to know. Next up, these unfair subsidies are likely referring to the EV tax credit. But note for this portion, the EO said by considering the elimination. So it's not a done deal yet, although I am still expecting it. However, for this one, from everything I've read, it looks like Trump will need legislation to undo this one. It's not something that Trump can do unilaterally. But what most people are overlooking right now is many of these changes are likely to face significant backlash from different environmental groups. Another specific policy that people refer to when talking about the EV mandate is the 2035 ICE car ban. Certain states in addition to California have adopted that, and that's likely to be challenged as well.
Late last year, the Alliance for Automotive Innovation sent a letter to Trump directly. The title, please require us to sell electric vehicles. According to the letter, the auto industry can only be successful with stability and predictability as many have already invested billions of dollars into EV R&D. As we learn more about these changes that are likely coming, it's most likely going to result in legacy auto being less incentivized to produce EVs.
As a result, the Chinese in Tesla will have more of an opportunity to extend their lead. And the pausing of funds from NIVI and CFI for public charging will have a minor impact on Tesla as they could have received some of those. But this will have more of a negative impact on the general EV charging rollout. We also learned Trump is trying to renegotiate the US MCA, the trade deal between Canada, the US and Mexico that was originally up for review in 2026, but Trump wants that to happen sooner.
That's where the conversation shifts to tariffs, and as a surprise to some, Trump is not imposing those right away. First, the administration is going to review the nation's trade deficits and policies. We're thinking in terms of 25% on Mexico and Canada because they're allowing vast numbers of people. Canada is very bad abuser. So vast numbers of people to come in and front and all to come in. When do you think you would enact the. I think February 1st. Are you planning to do the notice of that? I think we'll do it February 1st. 25% on both, sir. On each. On each.
Right now, there's still plenty of uncertainty with all of this, so before we really get into the details and how it might impact Tesla specifically, I want to wait until some of these things are set in stone, at least for the next four years. After a one year wait, it looks like ultra wideband support is now rolling out to Android users. Your phone key should be more reliable and certain features like the hands-free trunk will now work. But you have to have the right Tesla vehicle, 2024 Model 3 or later, 2021 Model S and X or later, the Cybertruck and then the new project Juniper is expected to have UWB support. The current version does not. This cannot be enabled with a software update. You need specific hardware.
The city of Austin is set to get $15 million for public EV charging, and it is set to come from the CFI. And it sounds like these funds have already been dispersed, so they're not going to be under this new executive order. This money is to fill the charging gaps in low to moderate income neighborhoods and underserved communities. Part of that, multi-family housing. Here we have a list of the top 50 sellers across Europe for both December and all of 2024. Focusing on the full year 2024, the top five were the Dacia Cindaro, the Renault Clio, the VW Golf, Tesla's Model Y came in fourth for the year and the VW T-Rock came in fifth.
The Model Y sold over 44,000 fewer vehicles in 2024 than 2023 as it was down 17.5%. Of course, the Cindaro is a much more affordable vehicle starting around $15,000. In second, the Renault Clio starts around $20,000 and the upcoming VW Golf is supposed to start around $33,000 in the US. So yeah, in fairness, when Wall Street shouts about Tesla needing a more affordable model, these are the charts that they're likely to share.
However, given the top three, it's true, the Model Y is still the best selling full EV across Europe for 2024. Despite the removal of EV subsidies across many countries last year, the Model 3 came in at number 27, up 13.4% year over year. You may remember this brand finance company we talked about last year, they do consumer surveys and try to put a market value on different company's brands. For what it's worth to you, last year, Tesla was ranked number 18 on this list and for this year, they've now dropped down to 36.
Of note, this company is based in London and these results are from about 16,000 people who shared their views on Tesla. I'll just say it, for as bad as we know, the media distortion is on Elon's character in the United States, from what I pick up, it's even worse across parts of Europe. As you might expect, there's plenty of talks about politics when it comes to Tesla's brand, so we don't need to get into that. The main reason I'm sharing this is because the CEO of brand finance had this to say, unless Tesla can come up with a whole range of new products that will really excite consumers and unless they can mitigate some of the antagonism caused by their leader, they will be seen as past their peak and will begin to go down. And look, maybe in this goofy brand survey, Tesla's value goes down, but the only value most people are actually concerned with is the stock market value. And if you think that's past its peak, well, I have a bridge to sell you.
Today, Volvo finally announced their most popular trim, the EX30, which is electric, is coming to the US at a starting price of $44,900. Some context on this one, the initial release had this vehicle starting at about $35,000, but for now, Volvo has not said if and when we can expect that more affordable version in the States. I would put this vehicle on the list to watch though, because this has been selling very well across Europe. It's set to have a 69 kilowatt hour battery pack and have a range up to 253 miles, with peak charging rates up to 152 kilowatts. And by the summer, they're set to have an off-road version of this vehicle available in the States as well. But more details and pricing and specs for that version are not yet available. At least part of the reason this vehicle has been delayed and the cost is now higher is thanks to new tariffs on vehicles built in China. Volvo is a subsidiary of Glee, and they've been in the midst of shifting their production of the EX30 from China to Belgium.
Disclosure, I have not been able to confirm this, but on ex Tesla Thomas said, FSD13.2.5 is now going out to the early release group. To those of you with hardware three still waiting for 12.6, just know that I see you guys and hopefully your day will come soon. Joe Tettmeyer gave us an update on the cyber tunnel at Giga Texas. Here's the other side of the tunnel that most people have not seen from inside the factory. And as you're about to see, the outside of the cyber tunnel is taking shape as well. And as you're about to see the outside of the cyber tunnel, is taking shape as well. Now Joe also shared this image showing the size comparison between the Model S and the cyber cap. But with this photo, some people were zooming in and changing the brightness and many people noticed this. This being the resemblance of something of a steering wheel where the driver seat would be, but is it a shadow or is it something else altogether? For what it's worth to you in the comments, Joe did say he does not believe this was a steering wheel. I would add, even if it was, this does not mean that this version would be going into production. I know it's tough to tell, but what does it look like to you?
Then we had Heinrich Zane sharing this photo of Kormark, apparently with their trailer attached to the Tesla Semi at Giga Nevada. As far as I can tell, there's nothing official out there about Kormark placing an order for the Tesla Semi, but it looks like they are indeed at least testing the Tesla Semi. Kormark has been actively working on modernizing its fleet of Semi's, and the last number I could find had their fleet at about 1500 trucks. These delivering to about 40,000 different convenience store locations across the US. As I was recording, I saw this from Chris Zang, who in the past has hit some and has missed some when it comes to predictions and rumors. But this one does check out, he said Tesla has given suppliers guidance on Optimus production, 600 units per week by the end of 2025. As we've talked about over the past few months, the word is Tesla plans to produce about a few thousand, maybe up to 5,000 for 2025, so this would make sense. The official word was that the next gen Optimus would enter production in quarter four of this year, so once again, that checks out with this rumor as well. The expectation is that most, if not all of these, will be for internal use at Tesla.
In my eyes, the reason this matters so much is because as we've seen the past few years, most of Wall Street does not have any value attributed to Optimus right now. As we know, Wall Street usually looks between six and 12 months out, and this means Optimus production within that timeframe. Hopefully we get more official confirmation on Tesla's Q4 call coming up in just over a week. But at some point, Wall Street's going to need to create these Optimus models, and that's going to change the valuation metrics. Tesla stock closed the day at $424.07 down, 0.57%, while the Nasdaq was up, 0.64%. It was an average volume day for Tesla. Don't forget, check out Surfshark linked below for those interested, protect your family, heading in to 2025. Hope you guys have a wonderful day. Please like the video if you did. You can find me on X-linked below, and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters. You might want to sign this,ion boxunder you, try to sign.