Welcome back to Electrified, it's your host, Dylan Umis, quick shout out to James D. Thank you for choosing to use my tesla referral link and congratulations on your new tesla. I still get a lot of questions if I don't upload for a little bit what's going on so one, just check the most recent video, usually I'll have an update in there toward the end or the beginning, or you can check the community tab on my page anytime.
There was a cyber truck recall today, but it's already being fixed with an OTA update. The problem? The rear view camera images were not showing up fast enough. The number of potentially impacted cyber trucks 27,185. So it's not official but from this weekend deduce that cyber truck deliveries so far cumulatively are right in the neighborhood of about 30,000 at the end of quarter three given that this report was submitted on September 26. The first cyber truck was delivered November 30th, 2023, so we're roughly 11 months in. I think a lot of people were expecting more than 30,000 at this time. The problem is I think too many people were underestimating the level of new technology in this vehicle and the level of new manufacturing techniques required to bring it to market.
On the bright side, that's around 30,000 foundation series models delivered when for a time people were only thinking it would be between one and 10,000. On that note, Tesla's Q3 numbers came in basically in line with expectations you can nitpick based on what the consensus was and all of that but in the grand scheme of things it's not that important. One thing to note if we assume Tesla delivered around 13,000 cyber trucks in quarter three that would leave less than 10,000 deliveries of the model s and x. And the fact that Tesla deployed 9.4 gigawatt hours of energy storage in quarter two and only 6.9 in quarter three should not be looked at as a bad thing because deployments will be very lumpy quarter over quarter. This is not a metric that we should expect to go up every quarter because of how these deployments are actually recorded and the timing of them.
And looking at the chart Sawyer shared quarter one through quarter three of this year is already higher than the total deployment number for 2023. Looking at Tesla's company compiled consensus, I don't think we need to spend time on quarter three but looking at their expectations for 2025 may be worth our time. They're expecting just over 2 million deliveries for 2025 which based on their expectations for this year of 1.78 million for the year that's only implying less than 13% growth. Don't forget as Gene Munster highlighted in a note the broader auto industry declined in September with GM's DeLantis FCA Toyota and Ford all reporting an average 8% year over year decline in ice sales. With Tesla's quarterly data we have to keep the broader macro headwinds for the auto market in mind as well.
I'm sure many of you heard the story after Hurricane Holene of that Model X that caught on fire and caused an entire house fire. The word was the vehicle was sitting in flood waters specifically salt water and that led to the fire. Now it is true that salt water conducts electricity better than regular water and it can be more corrosive to all of the parts. But the point should be that any vehicle, electric or ice that sits in water of any type is going to be at a higher risk for fire and other damage. Evie battery packs are designed to be water resistant but if they just sit in water for prolonged periods of time the water is likely to find its way in there and can cause short circuits and other damage.
Sadly the news won't cover stories like this one of our electrified community members reached out to me via email and he sadly had a garage battery fire but it was not caused by his Model Y that was in the garage when this all happened. He actually had some electric bikes that fell in roughly 3 feet of water in their garage. He took the batteries out, put them up on a high shelf but later they exploded and caused this fire. However throughout this whole garage fire where there was standing water in the garage and the Model Y was in there the Model Y battery pack never actually caught on fire. I wanted to share as it is a risk to be aware of again for EVs and ice vehicles but this notion that any time a Tesla vehicle comes into contact with any salt water is a guaranteed fire is just absolutely false.
The Department of Energy is now offering Evie Go a conditional loan guarantee of up to $1.05 billion to expand their public Evie charging infrastructure. It would support their deployment of about 7,500 public stalls and doing the math that's $140,000 per stall. Compare that to one Tesla supercharger which is in the neighborhood of $40,000.
The head of the loan program office who would actually give out these funds said the key is helping the company really achieve far higher customer service scores. Evie Go which is not yet profitable currently has more than 3,500 fast charging stalls. These chargers are to be built over the next five years and more than 40% of the 350 kilowatt Evie Go fast chargers which are designed for all EVs are planned to be built in disadvantaged communities. Look we absolutely need companies other than Tesla deploying more public fast chargers. The problem is when you do the math if this same amount of money went to Tesla you'd be getting likely over 26,000 stalls as opposed to 7,500 from Evie Go.
If you missed it FSD12.5.5 has rolled out to cyber truck owners and it does include the end-to-end network on the highway. We also have 12.5.4 rolling out to some hardware 3 vehicles. As Brandon shared on X his Model 3 with hardware 3 auto parked into his garage. I did not expect to see a parking icon in my garage so out of morbid curiosity I have to see what happens. Don't hit anything this is insane it's in my garage it's gonna back into my garage. What? No freaking way. Hold on get anything. Don't hit anything. Holy. Wait dude. Oh nice this is cool. Wow. Okay cool. Just don't expect this feature to be working for everybody's garage at this stage but it's cool to see that it can work.
Joe Barelli shared a clip of his cyber truck with 12.5.5 that actually didn't stop at a stop sign but it's not your average sign. Stop sign is shown in the visualization and here we go right through the stop sign. And as we've been saying for months once FSD rolls out to the cyber truck many big name people and celebrities are going to get to try it and they'll share it with their audience. Which yes is a double edged sword but one example of that Sarah Sanders who used to be the White House press secretary shared this video. A very quick clip but more people being exposed to the technology.
The release notes of FSD 12.5.5 have upcoming improvements as improved performance and parking lots, improved performance at intersections and stops and the introduction of speed profile. For what it's worth some users are reporting that the automatic speed on 12.5.5 is much better than prior builds. On X a shock said end to end on the highway is first shipping to cyber trucks. We're close to an early release build for remaining platforms and will release to internal employees in the next week or so. He said that on September 29th. Thus end to end on the highway for non-cybertruck vehicles should be coming in the next few days. So not only has Tesla now delivered FSD to the cyber truck on time we also have video from Heinrich Zane of Tesla now testing the Tesla semi. We know volume production of the semi is still about a year away but it would be awesome if Tesla can have FSD ready for when that time comes.
In case you missed it a shock said actually smart summon will come to legacy model SNX in quarter four. The information put out a new report about planning for new batteries in 2026 one for the robotaxi the lovely Alexandra Tesla boomer mama has shared the article on X. It says Tesla has embarked on an ambitious effort to design four new versions of its in-house battery to power the cyber truck its forthcoming robotaxi and other EVs. We've known about some of the problems Tesla's been having with the cathode production dating back to earlier this year. But as Tesla has told us in the past in-house cathode production should cut costs by between 12 and 15%. The biggest stumbling block has been the second version of the battery known as the 4680D which uses a new dry manufacturing technique to make cathodes DBE which we all know. The dry electrode powder doesn't easily spread uniformly especially at high automated speeds and it has occasionally damaged parts of the production equipment.
Despite the low production yield for the dry cathodes Tesla is pushing ahead with plans to introduce them in cyber truck batteries in the middle of next year. To get there the company plans to move production of the 4680D from Fremont to its larger Austin Texas factory. Tesla has set goals of improving the dry cathodes yield to 90% by the end of the year and mass producing it by the second quarter of 2025. One source said the cost of production is coming down it's trending in the right direction. By next year Tesla aims to be making between 2 and 3,000 cyber trucks per week using 4680Ds more than twice the rate of its current production without dry cathodes. On that point recently Joe Tettmeyer did some excellent investigative work and he said on X I now know what the big deliveries at the cathode plant are. This is automation equipment critical to producing the cathode material and hints at an additional refinement away from cobalt. Joe shared this image of some boxes in Austin. As we talked about recently Tesla is moving away from cobalt and the current 4680 cells have adopted a 955 NMC chemistry but the next step is NMC 973 and this equipment plays a role in achieving that.
Back to the information article by 2026 Tesla plans to introduce four subsequent versions of the 4680 that used the dry cathode. One internally code named NCO5 NC stands for new cell and described as the workhorse will power the robotaxi. The battery timeline suggests the robotaxi won't be available until 2026 at the earliest which personally I think is a reasonable timeline to expect regardless of what's going on with the batteries but don't forget Tesla could always launch the robotaxi with a battery from a supplier at least to start. They said Tesla also plans to use the NCO5 to power the cyber truck, a tractor trailer cab which we know is the semi and a fourth unknown vehicle. So basically this report is saying that this new cell 05 would go into the cyber truck, the robotaxi, the semi and a fourth unknown vehicle. They don't really say anything about the chemistry of this NCO5 so that could be more of a form factor and then there are different chemistries under that form factor umbrella.
They continued another variant dubbed NC 20 will pack more energy than other versions the company intends to power an SUV the cyber truck and other future vehicles with the NC 20. If this report were to be true that would obviously mean a bifurcation in cells for the cyber truck some would have the NCO5 some would have the NC 20. Two other batteries under development the NC 30 and the NC 50 will introduce a material called silicon carbon for the first time into the anodes. This one would absolutely check out as it's something we've been expecting Tesla to do now for years. Tesla is introducing the silicon carbon in these anodes at a cautious concentration of only around 8% much lower than the mix of between 50 and 80% that can achieve the highest possible bump in range and the fastest charge. The company will use the NC 30 in future vehicles including the cyber truck and a sedan while the NC 50 is smaller and focused more on performance. Tesla plans to use the latter in a new generation of the roadster.
First and foremost I think the specifics of each cell and what vehicle it's going into while we're all interested in that is not the main point the main takeaway here is that Tesla seems very confident again if these reports are true that 4680 production is about to scale very rapidly up the S curve. Not only that but it means Tesla seems more confident about the energy density and the cost per cell of their own batteries as opposed to getting them from suppliers for all of their future vehicles. Now there's absolutely a world where some of the entry models maybe have a new version of the 4680 like Tesla did with a Model Y for a time when the rest of the lineup has cells from suppliers. But the fact that Tesla apparently has plans to use a version of a new 4680 in the cyber truck the robot taxi the semi and an upcoming future vehicle is obviously an incredibly bullish report. It's true we absolutely have to be careful about reports like this from sources familiar with the matter. However as we talked about in the recent 4680 video update things are starting to get serious when it comes to the level of production for Tesla's 4680 program. It's also true Tesla has fallen well short of projections made at battery day both from timeline and gigawatt hours so keep that in mind with reports like this but certainly very encouraging nonetheless. The information is definitely not batting 1000 when it comes to reports like this so please keep that in mind but this one is definitely far too exciting not to at least share it.
The Swedish trade union EF metall has filed a second lawsuit against Tesla alleging Tesla failed to inform employee representatives of workplace changes. EF metall said Tesla had reorganized its branch in the Swedish city of Umea without informing the union. The battle in Sweden rages on but the good news is over the past year or so Tesla has still been able to increase its market share in the region despite all of these headwinds. The entry level model 3 which had the LFP batteries from China has been discontinued that model had 272 miles of range. It did not qualify for the tax credits and thanks to the new higher tariffs on materials imported from China. I can see why that model no longer made sense for Tesla to sell.
By the way when it comes to the whole McDonald's thing with Tesla personally I think it's nothing. Elon did start following the senior marketing director of McDonald's back in early August. But this whole 10 10 thing with McDonald's is probably not what you think. It's actually a collaboration between McDonald's and a very popular streamer and YouTuber. But obviously the 10 10 makes you think about it and then Elon did respond to the original posts from McDonald's with a laughing emoji. Of course anything is possible but I'm not expecting anything from this for Tesla.
Something will track in the weeks ahead about 45,000 dock workers along the east and Gulf coasts have gone on strike. It's the most significant strike this union has engaged in since 1977. On Tuesday of this week workers at 36 different ports stopped their work. Overall the affected ports handle about 50% of the imports and exports to the US. Toyota has now planning to push back production of EVs in North America to the first half of 2026 amid slowing sales. Toyota was planning to assemble a three row SUV in Kentucky in 2025 but recently told suppliers the start date will be delayed by several months.
Toyota will also cancel plans to begin producing new electric SUVs under the Lexus brand in North America by 2030. Instead they're going to ship finished vehicles to the market from Japan. Tesla stock closed the day at $240.66 down 3.36% while the NASDAQ was down 0.04%. It was an average volume day trading about 2 million shares above the average volume the past 30 days. I'm definitely still getting settled and trying to get caught up with everything in this new temporary location for the next few weeks so I appreciate everybody's patience over the past week and today.
Hopefully by tomorrow, Friday or Monday I'll be fully back in the swing of things. I hope you guys have a wonderful day. Please like the video if you did. You can find me on X-linked below and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.
希望到明天、周五或者周一,我能完全恢复状态。希望你们都能拥有一个美好的一天。如果你喜欢这个视频,请点赞。你可以通过下面的链接在 X 上找到我,非常感谢所有支持我的 Patreon 会员。