Charles Payne Show March 21, 2024

The CI o Joseph and now we've got a super in Powell. I mean just how surprised are you with the amount of confidence that the fair chair exuded yesterday? I am really surprised and as Kelly presented it very much looks like an immaculate soft landing. I thought the conference was really dovish in a couple ways. As we all know over the past months inflation has been surprising to the upside and when asked about that, Tripile was basically January that's just seasonal stuff. February, you know, that's actually not so bad. So he seems to be down playing and looking through what looks like inflation stabilizing at three and four percent and not just that. So we have financial conditions which I think everyone thinks are quite loose.

在CI约瑟夫和鲍威尔之后，我们现在有了一个超级。我想问你昨天主席展现出的自信程度让你有多么惊讶？我感到非常惊讶，凯利所呈现的情况看起来非常像一次完美的软着陆。我认为会议在某些方面确实很鸽派。众所周知，过去几个月的通货膨胀一直出人意料地向上走势，当被问及时，特里皮尔基本上表示1月份只是季节性因素。2月份，你知道，情况其实并不糟糕。因此，他似乎在淡化并看透通货膨胀似乎在3%到4%之间稳定，不仅如此。我们还有金融条件，我认为大家普遍认为相当宽松。

Look at equity markets going to the moon. It's like dog with hat. A meme coin is going to show up on the Las Vegas sphere. There's clearly a lot of speculation in the markets and when asked about that, Paolo's like, actually I think financial conditions are restrictive. I don't know what he's looking at but it's not what anyone else is looking at. I was going to ask you what's said. I mean, I know Goulburn has their financial conditions and the city has one that's widely used. Maybe he's got something to you and I don't know about but the idea that this confident on inflation just being a little bump in the road really is amazing and I get to be honest with you.

看看股市飙升，就像狗戴着帽子一样荒谬。一个模因币即将出现在拉斯维加斯的舞台上。市场上显然存在大量投机行为，当被问及此事时，保罗表示，实际上我认为金融环境相当严格。我不知道他在看什么，但显然不是其他人在看的。我本来想问问你们都说了什么。我知道高尔本有他们的金融环境评估，这座城市也有一个被广泛使用的评估方式。也许他知道一些你和我不知道的东西，但他对通胀仅仅是一点小小的困难这一观点如此自信，实在令人惊讶，我必须说实话。

Every time they say, well, January was cold, I'd lose my mind. Yeah, most of the time January is cold. So more than one Fed official though and this I'm reading from your notes that you're saying that more than one Fed official thinks the economy is less than one Fed. I think that's going to be the biggest answer is rate sensitive and that could be the big mistake. Yeah, yeah, definitely. I think that what's happening is that the economy is obviously less interest rate sensitive than we thought, right? Ask us a couple years ago. Can the economy would stand 5% rates? Everyone would tell you that no, we'd have going to a terrible depression and the market would tank but fast work today. If that funds five and a half and it looks like it's not doing as much damage.

每次他们说，嗯，一月份很冷，我都会失去理智。是的，大多数时候一月份都很冷。所以从你的笔记中我看到，有不止一个联邦储备委员会官员认为经济形势不佳。我认为最大的问题是利率敏感性，这可能是一个大错误。是的，是的，我觉得正在发生的事情显然是经济的利率敏感性比我们以前认为的要小。问我们几年前，经济能承受5%的利率吗？每个人都会告诉你不行，我们将进入一个恶性的经济衰退，市场会迅速暴跌。但是现在，如果基金利率为五个半点，看起来并没有造成太大伤害。

But I think that's a good thing that is slow to realize that. And I'll add one more thing, Charles. Fed Chair Powell yesterday. He also began to talk about the QT taper. And so even as financial conditions already loose, he's telling you that probably at the next meeting they're going to be tapering QT and that's another dovish dovish. So we see in the markets, the is a direct result of I think an exuberant on the inflation side. I don't know how much of this is human emotion, how much is miscalculation, how much is the election. But he certainly is a cognitive pout that will give him that nickname for now.

但我认为慢慢意识到这一点是件好事。再说一件事，查尔斯。美联储主席鲍威尔昨天也开始谈论量化宽松缩减。虽然金融环境已经宽松，但他告诉你，可能在下一次会议上他们会开始缩减QT，这是另一个鸽派的表现。所以我们可以看到市场上的波动，我觉得这是过度关注通胀的直接结果。我不知道这有多少是人的情感，有多少是错误计算，有多少是选举的影响。但他肯定是一个会让人叫他这个绰号的认知怪人。

Again, if he pulls off the immaculate landing here, he could pick out any name he wants. Joe, thank you very much. We'll talk again soon. I appreciate you.

再次，在这里完成完美的着陆，他可以选择任何他想要的名字。乔，非常感谢你。我们很快会再次交谈。我很感激你。