Is Tesla's 4680 Progress Good? / Employee on Robotaxi Licenses / VW Shares Autonomous Plans ⚡️

Welcome to Electrified. It's your host Dylan Loomis. Quick shout out to my newest patrons, D new I and Samuel S. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. On X, Elon said version 12.3.1 addresses several small annoyances and should start rolling out this weekend. Replying to John, Elon said the tendency to drive too slow should be addressed in 12.3.1. Still nothing for the 2024 branch.

欢迎来到《电气化》节目。我是您的主持人迪兰·卢米斯。特别感谢我的最新赞助者D new I和Samuel S。感谢您选择支持本频道。埃隆在X上表示，版本12.3.1解决了几个小问题，应该在本周末开始推出。回复约翰时，埃隆表示版本12.3.1将解决过于缓慢驾驶的问题。对于2024年分支仍没有进展。

We got some interesting comments from a South Korean auto analyst, Kim Jun-sung. The direction I heard at Tesla's informal meeting at the beginning of this year was the FSD and Optimus All In strategies. We internally expected that this strategy would be successful by June to July and believe that volume and profitability would naturally follow based on this. He continued, we asked them to specify what they meant by success and the answer was a driving capability equivalent to that of a Robotaxi.

我们从韩国汽车分析师金俊成那里得到了一些有趣的评论。我在今年年初听到了特斯拉非正式会议上的方向是FSD和Optimus全能战略。我们内部预计这个战略将在六月到七月取得成功，并相信基于这一点，数量和盈利自然会随之而来。他接着说，我们要求他们明确他们所说的成功的含义，答案是具有与Robotaxi相当的驾驶能力。

If we're really successful as per our goal, we believe that securing Robotaxi licenses at major bases will begin in 2025 and FSD license contracts will begin in 2026. This is a very subjective and hopeful opinion. But the point, someone at Tesla, relatively high up, is pretty optimistic about FSD and the potential for these Robotaxi licenses sometime in the next 12-18 months. Kim then clarified his comments to avoid any misunderstandings.

如果我们真的成功实现我们的目标，我们相信在2025年将在主要基地获得Robotaxi许可证，并在2026年开始FSD许可合同。这是一个很主观和充满希望的观点。但重点是，特斯拉内部有人，比较高层，对FSD和未来12-18个月内获得这些Robotaxi许可证的潜力持乐观态度。然后金重新澄清了他的讲话，以避免产生误解。

He said the view that FSD will have Robotaxi equivalent capabilities by June or July is the personal opinion of the engineers I've spoken to. I don't believe this is an official goal within Tesla or guidance that can be shared externally. Listen, it could certainly be true that there have been Tesla engineers that thought Tesla was going to solve FSD for each of the past 5 years. However, with 12.3 unexpected significant upgrades set to roll out every 2 weeks, this time feels a little different.

他说，我与的工程师个人认为，全自动驾驶必须具备机器出租车功能等同的能力到6月或7月的观点。我不认为这是特斯拉内部的官方目标或可与外界分享的指导方针。听着，确实可能有特斯拉的工程师认为在过去5年里特斯拉会解决全自动驾驶的问题。然而，随着12.3版意外重要升级计划每两周一次，这次感觉有点不同。

Checking out Kim's LinkedIn page, he's been a research analyst at Merit Securities for over 3 years in South Korea. So, a timeline to keep in mind possible Robotaxi licenses at major cities next year, 2025. Then FSD licensing by other OEMs starts in 2026. Again, maybe not an official internal plan, but it's certainly not nothing either. In MKBHD's recent video of a Cybertruck that he was actually borrowing from somebody else, it had one of the worst driver door panel gaps that we've ever seen.

浏览了金的LinkedIn页面，他在韩国的美利证券担任研究分析师已经超过3年了。因此，可以考虑明年2025年在主要城市获得可能的Robotaxi许可证时间表。然后其他原始设备制造商在2026年开始FSD许可证。再次强调，也许这不是官方的内部计划，但肯定不是没有任何意义。在MKBHD最近的视频中，他实际上是从别人那里借来的Cybertruck，它的司机门面板间隙是我们见过的最糟糕的之一。

That's definitely unfortunate, but Elon did say about 15 Cybertrucks in service had an issue where the door striker loosened in the field due to insufficient torque after door fit. This takes 5 minutes to fix in service and has been addressed in production. We got our roughly quarterly update on Tesla's 4680 production progress. The Cybertruck account posted produced over 1000 Cybertrucks worth of 4680 sales at Gigatexis last week. Translation, 1000 car sets per week, a car set is just a battery pack.

这确实很不幸，但埃隆说大约有15辆服务中的赛博卡车出现了问题，门锁紧松动，在安装后由于扭矩不足而松动。这需要在服务中花费5分钟修复，并已在生产中得到解决。我们大致每季度更新一次特斯拉4680生产进展。赛博卡车账户上周在Gigatexis发布的信息显示，已经生产了超过1000辆赛博卡车，价值4680销售量。换句话说，每周1000套汽车，一套汽车就是一个电池组。

Given that 4680s are arguably one of Tesla's 3-5 most important projects right now, it's worth getting into some of the context. Using the size of the Cybertruck battery, 123 kilowatt hours, times 1000 per week, that's 123,000. Converting that to gigawatt hours would be 0.123. That figure times 50 weeks, I like to allow for two weeks of downtime and maintenance, is about a 6.15 gigawatt hour annual run rate. Word of caution, extrapolating with these figures in my opinion is a silly venture.

考虑到4680电池被认为是特斯拉目前3-5个最重要的项目之一，值得了解一些背景。以Cybertruck电池的大小，即123千瓦时，每周生产1000个为例，那就是123,000。将其换算为千兆瓦时则为0.123。这个数字乘以50周（我喜欢算上两周的停机和维护时间），大约是6.15千兆瓦时的年产量。请注意，在我看来，使用这些数字来推断未来情况是一个愚蠢的尝试。

The growth here is not going to be linear, nor is it going to stay static for long, we're on our way up the S curve. The previous high run rate, which was sometime in quarter 4, was around 4.9 gigawatt hours per year. We'll get to why the growth over the past six or so months was only about 25.5% when last year from quarter 2 to quarter 3 they were growing at about 40%. If we assume, based on data from Troy that the Cybertruck production rate right now is in the neighborhood of 300 per week, that would be an additional 700 car sets that they're making per week, or about 2.3 weeks of inventory that they're building up every week.

这里的增长不会是线性的，也不会保持静态太久，我们正处在S曲线的上升阶段。之前的高运行速率在第四季度的某个时候，大约是每年4.9吉瓦时。我们将解释过去六个月左右增长只有大约25.5%的原因，而去年从第二季度到第三季度，他们增长了约40%。如果我们假设，根据特洛伊的数据，Cybertruck目前的产量大约是每周300辆，那将每周多生产700套汽车，或者每周积累大约2.3周的库存。

Technically, I suppose it'd be what they could start building up from here going forward if they just hit this rate for the first time. On Tesla's Q4 call though, they already said at that time they had a few weeks of car set inventory already set aside. I've seen a lot of speculation out there that given the increased run rate, Tesla might start putting 4680s in the Model Y or the Model 3. Personally, I'm not expecting that just because if they only have a few weeks of extra inventory, if something were to go wrong with these lines or the expansion of these new lines, they don't want to cut it too close.

从技术上讲，我想这将是他们今后可以从这里开始建设的东西，只要他们第一次达到这个速度。但在特斯拉的第四季电话会议上，他们已经说过他们当时已经准备了几周的汽车库存。我看到很多猜测，考虑到增加的生产速率，特斯拉可能会开始在Model Y或Model 3中使用4680电池。就我个人而言，我并不指望这种情况发生，因为如果他们只有几周的额外库存，如果出了问题，他们不希望出现这些线路或新线路的扩展问题。

And look, this situation could definitely be different by quarter 4 this year. I'm just saying I'm not expecting it in quarter 1 or quarter 2. Given Tesla's initial goal for annual Cybertruck production, they would be about 20% of the way there when it comes to this cell production rate. 250,000 trucks divided by 50 weeks is 5,000 per week. They're building 1000 car sets per week, 20%. To that earlier question, why has the growth rate been a bit slower over the past 6 months? We can't forget Tesla was retooling for the Gen 2 Cybertruck during quarter 4.

看吧，到第四季度，这种情况肯定会有所改变。我只是说我不指望在第一季度或第二季度出现变化。考虑到特斯拉对年度Cybertruck生产的初步目标，他们在这种电池生产速度上已经完成了大约20%的进度。如果每周生产250,000辆卡车，每周拆卸50,000辆卡车，250,000辆卡车除以50周是每周5,000辆。他们每周建造1,000套汽车，占总量的20%。提到之前的一个问题，为什么过去6个月增长速度有点慢？我们不能忘记在第四季度，特斯拉正在为第二代Cybertruck进行改装。

They were switching one Model Y line over to the Cybertruck cell version. As a refresher, in quarter 4 in Texas, Tesla was running one production line, one assembly line, and they were using two assembly lines for yield and rate improvement trials. The fourth line was in commissioning, and that was all for phase 1, which is going to be four lines. Phase 2 has already been underway now for a few months. That's going to be four more lines being installed starting in quarter 3 of this year. Those lines have been under construction dating back to Q3 of last year.

他们正在将一条Model Y生产线转换为Cybertruck电池版。作为一个提醒，在德克萨斯州第四季度，特斯拉正在运行一条生产线，一条装配线，并且他们正在使用两条装配线进行产量和速率改进试验。第四条生产线正在投产中，这将是第一阶段的全部内容，将有四条生产线。第二阶段已经进行了几个月，将从今年第三季度开始安装另外四条生产线。这些生产线从去年第三季度开始建设。

So once phase 2 is fully up and running, we'll be looking at eight production lines at Gigatexas. This serves as a nice, fun destroyer to what Reuters was spewing out as clearly 4680 production is still ahead of the Cybertruck ramp, and I would argue somewhat comfortably. Plus, given what I said that in quarter 4, Tesla already had a few weeks of car sets already set aside. This way, they can stay ahead of Cybertruck production and their future vehicle programs.

因此，一旦第二阶段完全投入运行，吉加特萨斯将拥有八条生产线。这可以看作是对路透社所宣传的4680电池生产仍处于超前地位的有趣回应，我认为塞博卡卡生产还有相当大的空间。另外，考虑到我在第四季度已经提过，特斯拉已经提前几周准备了一些汽车组件。这样一来，他们可以在塞博卡卡生产和未来车辆项目方面保持领先。

That latter part, future vehicle programs, that's not my speculation. That was aligned directly from the Q4 call. So where we're at now, Gigatexas is the primary 4680 production facility. Kato Road spent much of quarter 4 being retooled for large scale pilot runs of next gen cell designs. Kato's going to serve as the launch pad for new cells, one generation ahead of their mass production facilities. I've also seen some people saying that 4680 production in Berlin was ramping up. As far as I know, that's not accurate. They are producing very initial stage parts of the cell, but all of those are currently being shipped to the United States.

上面提到的未来车辆项目，并不是我的猜测。这是直接从第四季度电话会议中得知的。所以目前的情况是，Gigatexas 是主要的4680生产设施。Kato Road 在第四季度大部分时间都在为下一代电池设计的大规模试验生产做准备。Kato将成为新电池的发射平台，比他们的大规模生产设施提前一代。我也看到有人说柏林的4680生产正在加速。据我所知，这是不准确的。他们只是生产最初阶段的电池部件，但所有这些都目前都被运往美国。

So Berlin is not currently making full 4680 cells and they're not making anything for production in Berlin. There's still the big question mark has Tesla made any progress when it comes to the dry battery electrode for the cathode. There were some reports earlier this year that Tesla was actually importing some wet cathodes from China for their 4680 production. And finally, on the production tax credit, since Tesla is making these batteries in the United States, it's $45 per kilowatt hour for cell production and pack assembly. Multiply that by 123 kilowatt hours per car set times 1000 cyber trucks per week, that's $5.5 million.

所以柏林目前并没有完全生产4680电池，并且他们也没有为柏林的生产做任何准备。特斯拉在干电池电极方面是否取得了进展，这还是一个大问题。今年早些时候有报道称，特斯拉实际上正在从中国进口一些湿式阴极用于他们的4680生产。最后，关于生产税收抵免，由于特斯拉在美国制造这些电池，每千瓦时的电池生产和包装组件都可以获得45美元的抵免。将这乘以每辆车123千瓦时的电池组，再乘以每周1000辆赛博卡车，总额达到550万美元。

In these production tax credits per week. Multiply that by 50 weeks in a year to allow for the two weeks of downtime. That's about $276.8 million per year. That number is most likely with phase one not operating at 100% and we have an entire phase two, which will be doubling phase one set to come online later this year. It's great that Tesla is still making progress. We should also reasonably expect a faster rate of production over the next six to nine months.

每周产生的生产税收抵免。将这个数字乘以一年50周，以便考虑到两周的停产时间。这大约是每年2.768亿美元。这个数字很可能是因为第一阶段没有以100%的产能运作，并且我们还有整个第二阶段，预计将在今年晚些时候投入运营，从而使得产能翻倍。特斯拉仍在取得进展是很好的。我们也应该合理地期待未来六到九个月内更快的生产速度。

But I think it's wise to at least keep in mind at battery day, which was September of 2020, Tesla was expecting to be producing 100 gigawatt hours of 4680 cells in 2022. It's been said that Kato Road has a capacity of 10 gigawatt hours per year, but they're not really producing at that rate. And then the question can be asked what percent of those cells go into production vehicles? The answer might be zero. I'd be the first person to defend Tesla in that building these batteries from scratch with all of the new technology for a car maker is an absurd task.

但我认为至少在心中要记住，在2020年9月的电池日，特斯拉预计到2022年将生产100千兆瓦时的4680型电池。据说Kato Road每年的产能为10千兆瓦时，但他们实际上并没有以那个速度生产。然后可以问一个问题，这些电池的百分之多少会投入生产车辆？答案可能是零。我将是第一个为特斯拉辩护的人，因为用全新技术为汽车制造商建造这些电池是一个荒谬的任务。

But I also want to hold them accountable for making projections like this. That's because practically speaking, if Tesla was even at about 50% of this in 2024 today, we'd most likely have model threes that could qualify for the IRA tax credit. There are certainly energy density and charge curve concerns for the 4680s relative to the 2170s, but strictly from a sell availability standpoint that clearly would have given Tesla a lot more flexibility. It is worth pointing out as far as we know, the new model three plus is not using the gigacast.

但我也希望他们对这样的预测负责。因为实际上，如果特斯拉在2024年能达到今天的约50％，那么我们很可能会有符合IRA税收抵免资格的Model 3。相对于2170年的电池，4680电池存在着能量密度和充电曲线的问题，但严格从销售可用性的角度来看，这显然会给特斯拉带来更多的灵活性。应该指出的是，据我们所知，新的Model 3 Plus并未使用Gigacast技术。

So what does that mean for a 4680 structural pack, even having the ability to go into a model three vehicle for whatever it's worth. I do still think it's more likely that the model threes requalify for the credits when that Panasonic factory in Kansas comes online, which is supposed to be 2025. It's true. Today, the administration officially put through the strongest ever pollution standards for cars in the United States. But it's also true that these have been peeled back from what they were originally proposing. I'll have the official eight page document linked below if you want to check it out. I just want to highlight what they said. The EPA projects that for model years 2030 to 2032, manufacturers may choose to produce be these for about 30 to 56% of new light duty vehicle sales and about 20 to 32% of new medium duty vehicle sales. I want to make it clear, these rules are not a mandate. It is literally just emissions guidelines that automakers have to hit across their entire fleet. So my point is they can do that in many different ways, selling a combination of full be EVs, hybrids and ice vehicles, and still buying credits. There's a lot of reporting out there that this is requiring 30 to 56% of new cars being sold being EV. But that's just not true. This is literally just a guess or an estimate or a loose suggestion based on what the emissions regulations are. We just talked about it last week. A Toyota executive is already saying that they're going to follow consumer demand and just buy credits to make up any EPA shortfall. These regulations also don't take effect until model year 2027.

那么这对于一款4680结构电池而言意味着什么呢，即使有能力用于Model 3车型，无论价值如何。我仍然认为，当堪萨斯州的松下工厂投产，预计为2025年时，Model 3很可能会重新符合获得积分资格。今天，美国政府正式通过了有史以来最严格的汽车污染标准。但事实上，这些标准已经从最初的提议中有所削减。我会在下面链接官方的八页文件，如果你想查看的话。我只想强调一下他们所说的。美国环保署预计，从2030年到2032年车型年份，制造商可能选择在新的轻型车销售中生产这些部件，占30%到56%，在新的中型车销售中占20%到32%。我想澄清，这些规定并不是强制性的。这实际上只是整个车队中汽车制造商必须达到的排放准则。所以我的观点是，他们可以通过多种方式实现这一目标，销售全电动车、混合动力车和传统燃油车的组合，并仍购买积分。有很多报道称，这要求30%到56%的新车销售是电动车。但这是不正确的。这实际上只是根据排放法规所做的一个猜测、估计或粗略建议。我们上周刚讨论过。一位丰田高管已经表示，他们将跟随消费者需求，只需购买积分来弥补任何环保署的不足。这些规定也不会在2027车型年份之前生效。

I was able to find this which unfortunately I think is going to be important. According to statute, as long as the rules are published, more than 60 legislative days before the end of the presidential term, they cannot be eliminated by a simple majority vote in Congress. The commentary from most of Legacy Auto and the UAW was they were thankful that the EPA actually listened and reduced some of these rules between 2027 and 2030. Here's the thing though, it's almost a guarantee for gone these new regulations are going to be challenged legally. He's definitely not the only one, but Joe Manchin already said he would support Republicans' efforts to overturn the rule. He's already called this reckless and ill-informed and said it'll impose what is effectively an ED mandate without ensuring the security of our supply chains from nations like China and without a realistic transition plan that addresses our domestic infrastructure needs. Here's the table with the actual standards when it comes to the non-methane organic gas and nitric oxide emission levels by year. I just want to make it abundantly clear, if you're looking for what percent of EVs by what year, you're not going to get it, that's not how this regulation works. This is not an EV mandate.

我能找到这段话，不幸的是我认为这将会很重要。根据法规，只要规则在总统任期结束前的60个立法日内公布，它们就不能通过国会的简单多数票数被取消。大多数传统汽车和UAW的评论是他们感激环保局实际听取意见，在2027年至2030年之间减少了一些规定。但问题是，几乎可以确定这些新规定将面临法律挑战。他绝对不是唯一一个，但乔·曼钦已经表示他将支持共和党推翻这一规定的努力。他已经称这是轻率和不明智的，并表示这将强制实施有效的电动车要求，却没有确保我们免受像中国这样的国家的供应链威胁，也没有解决我们国内基础设施需求的现实转型计划。这是实际的非甲烷有机气体和一氧化氮排放标准的年份表。我想明确指出，如果你想知道每年电动车的比例是多少，你是找不到答案的，这不是这项规定的工作方式。这不是电动车要求。

Automakers can sell whatever cars they want, buy whatever credits they want, as long as ultimately across their fleet, they're hitting these emission levels. So just know that anybody out there that you see saying now 56% of all new car sales will be fully electric by 2032, those people don't actually know what they're talking about. We got an update on the Tesla IP thieves, it turns out the technology involved high-speed battery assembly lines that use a proprietary technology owned by Tesla. The two individuals, one that's been arrested, sold products developed with the stolen trade secrets. These two started their own business in China that they expanded elsewhere globally and the business makes the same battery assembly lines that Tesla uses with its proprietary info and it markets itself as an alternative source for the assembly lines. Tesla has also announced it will be raising Model Y prices in China starting on April 1st, but it's only by about $700. Right now it's not official, but the assumption is it will be for all Model Y trims.

汽车制造商可以卖任何他们想要的车，买任何他们想要的信用额度，只要最终在他们的车队中，达到这些排放水平。所以请记住，任何人如果说到2032年全新车销售的56%将是全电动车，那些人实际上并不知道他们在说什么。我们收到了有关特斯拉知识产权窃贼的最新消息，结果表明其技术涉及高速电池组装线，使用的是特斯拉拥有的专有技术。这两个人中的一个已被捕，销售使用窃取的商业机密开发的产品。这两个人在中国开设了自己的公司，之后在全球扩张，他们的公司生产了与特斯拉使用的相同的电池组装线，并以替代来源的身份宣传。特斯拉还宣布将于4月1日起提高中国的Model Y价格，但仅增加约700美元。目前尚未正式确认，但可以猜测是所有Model Y款式都会涨价。

Perhaps even more impactful though will be Tesla letting some of these other incentives that they have been running if those also expire at the end of March, then the cost of Tesla vehicles may be going up to the tune of thousands of dollars. I thought it was funny, Xiaomi CEO said I read rumors today that Tesla will increase prices April 1st, Tesla is so cool, truly impressed. He said the current ED market is so competitive that only Tesla dares to raise prices. With the current pure EVs, except for Tesla, many of them are making huge losses. It isn't interesting move by Tesla, you have basically all of the fish in the current swimming one direction in China lowering prices and now Tesla is starting to go the other way. It feels like an end of quarter incentive because Tesla has been forecasting all of these price hikes rather than just doing it which clearly would be a way to get people to buy now.

也许更有影响力的是特斯拉让一些其他激励措施也随着三月底到期，那么特斯拉车辆的成本可能会上涨数千美元。我觉得很有趣，小米CEO说我今天看到传言，特斯拉将在4月1日涨价，特斯拉太酷了，真的让人印象深刻。他说当前的电动车市场如此竞争激烈，只有特斯拉敢于涨价。目前除了特斯拉以外，许多纯电动车都在大亏损。特斯拉这样做并不有趣，当前中国市场上所有的鱼都在大幅降价，而特斯拉却开始走另一条路。这感觉像是季末激励措施，因为特斯拉一直在预测这些涨价，而不是直接实施，这显然是一种让人们立即购买的方法。

The word is GM executives think they may finally be crawling out of their production hell when it comes to the Altium production. Their CFO said we've had some challenges scaling it, you don't say, I think most of those are behind us. In 2023, GM sold fewer than 14,000 Altium based EVs when their goal for the year was about 75,000. They did admit part of their problem with scaling the Altium lines was they were implementing these fully automated lines but they didn't do any testing first rather than testing them somewhere else. They chose to install new fully automated battery assembly lines right away. A wise person once told me haste makes waste. Although the truth is when it comes to Tesla building factories, they often do things hastily as well and it's worked out so far. A not so fun fact, the Detroit Fire Department says it's been called nine times to factory zero since August. GM's VP of electrification said he thinks the company has turned the corner at factory zero and they'll continue to ramp up and they're still planning to deploy what they've learned there at a new battery plant in Tennessee scheduled to open later this year.

通用汽车的高管们认为，当涉及到Altium生产时，他们可能终于摆脱了生产困境。他们的首席财务官说：“我们在拓展这个产品时遇到了一些挑战，这是毋庸置疑的，但我认为大部分难题都已经在我们身后了。”2023年，通用汽车销售基于Altium的电动汽车不到14,000辆，而当年的销售目标约为75,000辆。他们承认，他们在扩大Altium生产线方面的一部分问题是他们正在实施这些完全自动化的生产线，而并没有经过任何测试，而是直接将其安装在新的全自动化电池组装线上。有一个智者曾经告诉我，欲速则不达。虽然事实是，就特斯拉建厂而言，他们通常也会匆忙行事，但迄今为止都还顺利。一个并不有趣的事实是，底特律消防局称，自8月以来已经有九次被召唤到工厂零号。通用汽车的电气化副总裁表示，他认为公司在零号工厂已经迈过了拐点，他们将继续扩大规模，并计划利用在那里学到的经验在今年晚些时候开业的田纳西新电池工厂中推行。

The employees at Berlin have been voting on the new works council and the majority of Tesla staff in Germany decided against the E-Game at all union and opted for non unionized lists for the new works council. E-Game at all's efforts to gain more control over Gigabrelin have been thwarted once again by the employees. Boston Consulting Group did a study on EV production and they concluded most automakers lose about $6,000 on every EV they sell for $50,000. That's after accounting for customer tax credits. More mainstream folks are finally starting to ask the question whether automakers have the stomach to keep investing until they get to the level of scale and efficiency where they can actually turn a profit. If you've been around, you've probably heard me say at least 10 times that no CEO wants to be at the helm when their company starts burning billions of dollars. For Lucid, it's actually more like 6 figures.

在柏林的员工已经就新的工会委员会进行了投票，德国特斯拉员工中的大多数决定反对全工会E-Game，选择新的工会委员会的非工会名单。E-Game的努力再次受到员工的挫折，无法对Gigabrelin获得更多控制权。波士顿咨询集团对电动汽车生产进行了研究，他们得出结论，大多数汽车制造商在以每辆50,000美元出售的电动汽车上每辆亏损约6,000美元，这已经考虑到客户的税收抵免。更多主流人士终于开始提出一个问题，即汽车制造商是否有足够的胆量继续投资，直到他们达到规模和效率的水平，从而真正实现盈利。如果你有经验，你可能听过我至少10次说过，没有CEO愿意在公司开始烧掉数十亿美元时继续执掌舵。对于露齐，更确切地说是6位数。

Stellantis has just invested an undisclosed amount in a LiDAR company called Steerlight. This company is touting a lower volume production cost than currently available LiDAR. There's very little public information about this Steerlight company and given they did not disclose the amount that usually means it's small. Looking at global data for the month of January this year for only full BEVs, that category grew 48% compared to January 2023. Globally, full BEVs took a 10% market share for January. Then things go slightly south as we have plug-in hybrids that were up 91% year over year in January and China represented over 60% of all EV registrations in January.

Stellantis刚刚投资了一家名为Steerlight的LiDAR公司，投资金额未透露。这家公司声称其生产成本比目前可用的LiDAR要低。关于Steerlight公司的公开信息非常少，而且由于他们没有透露金额，通常意味着这笔投资规模较小。今年1月份全球数据显示，仅针对全电动汽车（BEVs），与2023年相比，该类别增长了48%。全球范围内，全电动汽车占据了1月份市场份额的10%。然后情况稍有下降，因为1月份插电混合动力车辆同比增长了91%，而中国在1月份占据了所有电动车注册量的60%以上。

On that point, Martin Vieja said unfortunately people use plug-in hybrids mainly as gas cars which means their CO2 emissions are far worse than official EPA or WLTP ratings suggest. Just like officially rated energy consumption of EVs has been getting closer and closer to reality, same should be done for plug-in hybrids. He quote posted this that said plug-in hybrids perform shockingly bad, emitting an average of 3.5 times their official and publicly reported CO2 emissions. Jaguar Land Rovers performed the worst with a 147 grams of CO2 gap for every kilometer driven. The green portion of each bar shows you the gap or how much more CO2 per gram per kilometer these vehicles are actually emitting in the real world. Talk about false advertising. I'll use this opportunity to make a point. I think for us as we try to promote EVs, talking about climate change may not be the right thing for most of the general public. It's now one of those politicized polarized terms. I think we just need to focus on breathing cleaner air if you want to touch on the green aspect of EVs. I don't know many rational human beings that wouldn't want cleaner air for themselves and their future generations. What happens with an ICE vehicle in a closed garage when it's turned on is always a good example.

马丁·维埃哈表示，不幸的是，人们主要将插电式混合动力汽车用作传统汽油车，这意味着它们的二氧化碳排放远远超过官方EPA或WLTP评级所建议的。就像电动车的官方能源消耗评级越来越接近实际情况一样，插电式混合动力汽车也应该如此。他引用了一篇文章，其中写道插电式混合动力汽车表现令人震惊，平均排放量比官方和公开报告的CO2排放量高出3.5倍。捷豹路虎的表现最差，每驾驶一公里就要排放147克CO2。每根柱形图的绿色部分显示了这些车辆在现实世界中实际排放的二氧化碳量相比公布的数据更高的量。谈论虚假宣传。我想利用这个机会来阐明一点。我认为，对于我们试图推广电动车来说，谈论气候变化可能不是大多数普通公众想听的内容。这现在是一个被政治化和分化的术语。我认为我们只需要专注于呼吸更清洁的空气，如果想谈到电动车的环保方面。我不认识多少理性的人类不希望为自己和未来的后代呼吸更洁净的空气。当ICE车辆在密闭车库里启动时会发生什么，这常常是一个很好的例子。

VW and Mobileye are deepening their ties. As they said today, they're going to bring Mobileye tech into Audi, Bentley, Lambo and Porsche vehicles. They'll also use Mobileye's self-driving systems in commercial vehicles, including a fleet of robo taxis based on the VW ID Buzz EV. We'll see. VW did not comment on a specific time frame to reach serious production with the systems. Naturally, VW tried to save face here by saying in the long term, the group will rely on its own complete in-house stack for automated driving across all brands. Mobileye's supervision is already on some roads in China with Gili. For this partnership, VW has been touting Level 3 automated driving, but they did say that a VW subsidiary is testing a driverless fleet in Austin.

大众汽车和Mobileye加深了他们的合作关系。正如他们今天所说，他们将把Mobileye技术应用到奥迪、宾利、兰博基尼和保时捷的汽车中。他们也将在商用车辆中使用Mobileye的自动驾驶系统，包括基于大众ID Buzz电动车的一系列无人出租车。我们拭目以待。大众汽车没有具体说明实现系统实际生产的时间框架。当然，大众汽车试图通过表示长期来看，集团将依靠自己的完整内部技术堆栈来实现所有品牌的自动驾驶，以此来保全形象。Mobileye的监控系统在中国的一些道路上已经开始使用。至于这次合作，大众汽车一直在推崇三级自动驾驶技术，但他们确实表示，一家大众子公司正在奥斯汀测试无人驾驶车队。

As of today, Ford is now allowing dealers to advertise its EVs below, MSRP, this according to a bulletin sent to dealers. While dealers have been able to sell Ford EVs for any price, the rules prevented them from advertising their best prices. Given that Ford recently cut the Mach E price by up to $8,000, this probably is not a great sign. On Weibo, Polestar has announced that in China, they now have access to the Tesla Supercharger network. The last we heard, Polestar vehicles were supposed to have access to the Supercharger network in North America sometime this spring.

截止今日，福特现在允许经销商以低于建议零售价（MSRP）的价格进行电动车的广告宣传，这是根据一份发送给经销商的公告。尽管经销商一直可以任意出售福特电动车，但规定禁止他们宣传最优惠价格。考虑到福特最近将 Mach E 的价格下调了最多$8,000，这可能并不是一个好迹象。在微博上，Polestar 宣布他们在中国现在可以使用特斯拉超级充电站网络了。据我们了解，Polestar 车辆应该在今年春季能够访问北美的超级充电网络。

City officials in San Francisco are assessing the feasibility of a curbside EV charging program. They're saying the hope is to implement a pilot by next year, but city agencies still need to determine the project's cost. It was a green day across the board for our auto and AI sector, thanks to the Fed, Tesla stock closed the day at $175.66, up 2.53%, while the Nasdaq was up 1.25%. It was another quiet volume day for Tesla trading about 15 million shares below the average 30-day volume. As expected, the Fed left rates unchanged and based on the summary of economic projections or the dot plot, the expectation is still three rate cuts for this year, but that's definitely not a guarantee.

旧金山市官员正在评估在路边设置电动汽车充电计划的可行性。他们表示希望明年实施试点计划，但仍需要确定项目的成本。现在对于我们的汽车和人工智能行业来说是一个绿色的一天，归功于美联储，特斯拉股价收盘报175.66美元，上涨了2.53%，纳斯达克指数上涨了1.25%。对于特斯拉的交易量再次保持平稳，约比30天平均交易量少了1500万股。美联储如预期那样保持利率不变，根据经济预测摘要或点图，对于今年仍预期会有三次降息，但这并不是绝对的保证。

Pal did say they're prepared to retain the current rate for longer, and they also hinted that they may begin slowing the pace of quantitative tightening fairly soon. Based on the dot plot, we probably won't be going back to 0% rates unless something goes terribly wrong. And longer term for the normal rate going forward, that was boosted up from 2.52 to 2.6%. Hope you guys have a wonderful day, you can find me on X linked below. Please like the video if you did, and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.

帕尔确实表示他们准备更长时间保持当前利率，并暗示他们可能很快会开始放缓量化紧缩的步伐。根据点图，除非出现严重问题，我们可能不会恢复到零利率。而且从长远来看，未来正常利率从2.52%提高到了2.6%。希望大家今天有一个美好的一天，你可以在下面的X上找到我。如果你喜欢这个视频，请点赞，非常感谢所有支持我的Patreon支持者。