Surprisingly Strong Q1, Stocks To Watch, Bezos' Next Move
发布时间 2023-03-31 20:00:00 来源
摘要
The Nasdaq rose 17% in the 1st quarter, but we're not popping champagne just yet. (0:21) Ron Gross and Matt Argersinger discuss: - New inflation data and real estate concerns in Silicon Valley - Why they're watching company margins and guidance updates over the next few weeks - Disney shutting down its metaverse division - Lululemon's (unsurprising) write-down of Mirror - The latest from Walgreens, RH, and McCormick (19:11) Brad Stone, head of Bloomberg's global tech coverage, weighs in on the state of affairs at Amazon, whether Jeff Bezos will return as CEO, and what to watch in the growing industry of AI and ChatGPT. (32:40) Matt and Ron discuss Moderna's prospects, Pepsi's new logo, and share two stocks on their radar: ERP Properties and Wesco International. To get your copy of our free report "Top Stocks For Rising Interest Rates" just go to fool.com/interest. Stocks discussed: DIS, META, LULU, WBA, RH, MKC, AMZN, GOOG, MRNA, PEP, EPR, WCC Host: Chris Hill Guests: Ron Gross, Matt Argersinger, Brad Stone Engineer: Dan Boyd
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中英文字稿 
The first quarter of the investing year is in the books. Motelful money starts now. Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money.
投资年度的第一季度已经过去了。现在该开始赚钱了。每个人都需要钱，这也是他们称之为钱的原因。
This is Motelful money. I'm Chris Hill joining me in studio Motelful senior analyst Matt Argusinger and Ron Gross. Good to see you both gentlemen. How you doing Chris?
这是Motelful的财务数据。我是Chris Hill，与我一起在工作室的是Motelful的高级分析师Matt Argusinger和Ron Gross。很高兴见到你们两位先生。你们两位好吗？
We got the latest headlines from Wall Street. Brad Stone from Bloomberg is our guest and as always we got a couple of stocks on our radar. But we begin with the big macro.
我们得到了来自华尔街的最新头条新闻。来自彭博社的Brad Stone是我们的嘉宾，并且像往常一样，我们正在关注几只股票。但我们先从大宏观经济开始。
The latest inflation data. The personal consumption expenditure's price index. Say that three times. No thank you. Showed an increase of 0.3% in February. This is one more data point that the Federal Reserve is watching closely as they decide whether to raise interest rates again or not.
最新的通货膨胀数据。个人消费支出的价格指数。说三遍。不用了，谢谢。2月份这项数据显示了0.3%的增长。这是联邦储备委员会在决定是否再次提高利率时密切关注的另一个数据点。
This also coincided with the end of the first quarter of the year for investors. The Dow basically flat year-to-date S&P 500 up around 7%. Nasdaq up around 17% Ron.
这个也正好和投资者一季度的结束重叠了。道琼斯指数基本持平，年初到现在没有太大的涨跌。而标准普尔500指数则上涨了7%左右。纳斯达克指数上涨约17%。对啦。
Coming into the year if you told me that's where we'd be at this point. I think I would have been thrilled but with all of the bank drama earlier this month. It doesn't seem as good as the numbers would indicate. Yeah. We can get to the macro stuff in a minute.
如果在年初告诉我我们现在会在这个位置，我会感到非常兴奋，但是这个月早些时候发生的所有银行危机，使得这些数字所表现的情况不太好。是的，我们可以一会儿谈宏观问题。
Yeah, I agree. I want to talk about the markets and the performance because it does not feel to me like we're in any kind of a strong market. January was strong. February was weak. March we had a banking crisis. Well, yeah, March then actually ended up kind of strong. It's been all over the place in terms of volatility. I think rather than the graph being up and to the right, we haven't felt that way.
是的，我同意。我想谈谈市场和表现，因为我感觉我们不处于任何强劲的市场中。一月份很强劲，二月份很弱。三月份我们遇到了银行危机。嗯，是的，三月最后实际上有点强劲。在波动方面它一直跌宕起伏。我认为，与其说这个图像向上右移，我们并没有那种感觉。
That's perhaps why when I noticed that the Nasdaq was up as you said 17% I was like, wow. Now, of course, tech was crushed last year. We did get some sort of a rebound. But we're getting a rebound in a rising interest rate environment, which I wouldn't have necessarily predicted that. So people may be feeling somewhat good about their investments, but I think they're still feeling very shaky about the economy.
可能这就是为什么当我注意到你说纳斯达克上涨了17%时，我惊讶了。当然，科技公司去年遭受了打击，我们确实有一些反弹。但是我们是在利率上升的情况下出现了一次反弹，这一点我可能并没有预料到。所以，人们可能对他们的投资感到有些安心，但我认为他们仍然对经济感到非常不稳定。
And as we discussed in previous shows, anything with the word contagion in it is really kind of on the dicey side and creates quite a bit of anxiety. I agree. I mean, it's been such a rollercoaster.
正如我们在之前的节目中讨论过的那样，任何带有“传染”的词都有点冒险，会引起相当多的焦虑。我同意。我的意思是，这真是一场起伏不定的过山车。
I mean, it feel like we've lived a year in this first quarter. I mean, inflation's been persistent. The Fed's been relentless. We've got recession fears. We've had mass layoffs in the tech sector, and we keep coming in Disney's the latest not really tech company, but we've had the biggest bank failure since the global financial crisis. And of course, this regional banking crisis. And we've got these problems in the commercial real estate market that we should also talk about.
我是说，感觉我们在第一季度就经历了一整年。通货膨胀一直存在，美联储坚持不懈。我们担心衰退。科技领域出现了大规模裁员，迪士尼问题是最新的，虽然不是科技公司，但我们经历了全球金融危机以来最大的银行倒闭。当然，还有这个地区银行危机。我们还应该谈论商业房地产市场的问题。
But the fact that we are where we are is pretty impressive. I mean, if you've been an investor who had sat on the beach since the beginning of the year and didn't check your phone, as you said, Ron and Chris, it's like, well, you're feeling pretty good, but then you're not feeling good. But then you feel good again. Well, then you're kind of good again. And the economic numbers are interesting. So we are seeing a slowdown in the economy. We are seeing inflation come down. But slowly, it's taken a while. And that's why I don't think we're done quite yet with interest rate increases. Predictions, you're bound to be wrong, but probably one more than some stagnation and then at some point declining interest rates, which I'm looking forward to. But what the Fed is trying to do is happening. It's just that job market is still very strong.
事实上，我们现在所处的位置相当令人印象深刻。我的意思是，如果你是一位投资者，从年初开始就坐在海滩上，不检查手机，就好像你感觉很好，但然后你又不好了。但是接着你又感觉好了。所以，现在你有点好了。经济数字很有意思。我们看到经济放缓，通胀正在下降。但是，这需要一段时间。这就是为什么我认为我们还没有完成利率上涨的原因。预测总是会出错，但可能还会有一次滞涨，然后利率会在某个时候开始下降，这是我期待的。但是联邦储备委员会所做的事情正在发生。只是就业市场仍然非常强劲。
We need it to continue to be a little bit weaker. We did see that in the jobless numbers, but it's just taking some time.
我们需要它继续稍微弱一些。虽然我们在失业率数据中看到了这一点，但这需要一些时间。
Maddie, I want to go back to the layoffs that you mentioned, because this week we got two more tech companies based in Silicon Valley, Electronic Arts and Roku. They're both laying off 6% of their employees. They're downsizing their office space. And I understand the argument of people who say, well, the tech sector, that's not the whole economy. There's a much bigger part of the economy beyond the tech companies in Silicon Valley. And that's true. But when you look at Silicon Valley, it's hard for me with all of these announcements not to start thinking about the ripple effects, particularly when it comes to commercial real estate.
麦迪，我想谈谈你提到的裁员问题，因为这周我们又有两家科技公司：电子艺界和Roku。他们都将裁员6％的员工。他们正在缩减办公空间。我理解那些说科技行业不是整个经济的人的观点。在硅谷的科技公司是经济的一个很小的部分。这是真的。但当你看看硅谷，我很难不去想涟漪效应，尤其是商业房地产方面。
No, that's exactly right. And if you look at the, according to data from the San Francisco Chronicle, the current office vacancy rate, I was shocked when I saw this. The current office vacancy rate in downtown San Francisco is 29.4%. That in commercial real estate land is a depression. It's eight times the vacancy rate pre-pandemic. And you can compare that to the New York City vacancy rate, which has also been hit pretty hard. It's at 16%. But either way, the point here is, yeah, Silicon Valley has been hit extra hard, but there's a bigger story here about commercial real estate, especially office. Vacancy rates are way high. We are in this new era of work from home or hybrid work where no matter what, corporations just need less space.
不错，完全正确。如果从旧金山纪事报的数据来看，目前的办公室空置率，我看到这一数字时感到震惊。旧金山市区目前的办公室空置率为29.4%。在商业房地产领域，这是萧条时期。这一数字是疫情前的空置率的八倍。你可以把它与纽约市的空置率相比较，后者也受到了相当大的冲击，达到16%。但无论如何，关键是，是的，硅谷受到了更大的打击，但商业房地产，尤其是办公室的空置率正在飙升。我们正处于远程办公或混合办公的新时代，无论如何，企业所需的办公空间都在减少。
The problem is Silicon Valley Bank and others, it was a little bit of a harbinger for what I think could be a pretty big problem with commercial real estate lending. If you look at the regional banks, according to some data, 80% of the lending to the commercial real estate market comes from these regional banks. Ask any bank whether they're excited about refinancing and office building right now, especially with debt that's maturing in the next few years, and it gets really dicey. And that could give the Fed some cover to slow, industry increases more quickly than they might have done otherwise. But it's hard to hope for that. It's hard to hope for a shock to the economy such that the Fed can slow down.
问题在于硅谷银行和其他银行，这在我看来可能是商业房地产贷款问题的一个预警信号。如果你看看地区银行，根据一些数据，80%的商业房地产贷款来自于这些地区银行。问问任何银行，他们是否对现在重新融资和办公楼兴奋，尤其是那些在接下来几年到期的债务，情况就变得非常棘手。这可能会给联邦储备委员会提供一些遮盖，使其比原本预计的更快地减缓行业增长。但是希望这样可能有些难以实现。希望出现一场可以让联邦储备委员会减缓的经济震荡是困难的。
As I've said before, you know, choose your poison. Hopefully the crisis won't be too bad and the Fed will be able to lighten up relatively soon and we can all move forward. So we're about to enter in the near term. Let's just call it a three week period where earnings season is in the past. The next earnings season is coming up starting in about three weeks.
就像我之前说过的一样，你知道，自己决定你的选择。希望这场危机不会太糟糕，美联储能够相对很快地放松政策，我们都能向前发展。那么，我们即将进入短期范畴，可以称之为三周的时间，这段时间已经过去了盈利季节。下一个盈利季节将在大约三个星期后开始。
What I'll start with you Matt, what are you going to be watching over the next couple of weeks? And let's just put aside the possibility of another bank story coming forward and adding to the drama. What are you going to be watching to sort of give you an indication? Because it seems like part of what we've been talking about fits the narrative that we've been talking about for a few months now, which is the second half of 2023 appears to be set up for some positivity. Again, even keeping in mind what the market has done year to date, but over the next few weeks, what are you going to be watching?
我首先问你，马特，接下来几周你会关注什么？我们不妨暂时撇开可能会出现的银行故事，以减少戏剧性的影响。你会关注哪些事情来给你一个指示？因为似乎我们一直在谈论的那个故事，也就是2023年下半年似乎正在为一些积极的事情设定。当然，我们也要考虑到市场今年以来的表现，但接下来的几周，你会关注哪些事情呢？
This is that period where I think companies, if there have been major changes to their business outlook, this is where guidance starts to come in. A company will warn about their quarter. They'll try to get ahead of the news. And I've got a whole list of real estate investments, trust by the way, that I'm looking for for guidance because I'm worried about, especially in the office space as we've talked about. I'm worried about what that business looks like in terms of occupancy rates, net operating income. It's getting dicey. And I think that could tell a bigger story about the overall economy. So that's kind of where I'm watching.
这是那个时间段，我认为如果公司的业务前景有重大变化，这就是指导开始出现的地方。公司将警告他们的季度表现，他们会试图提前知道消息。而我有一个整个房地产投资信托基金的列表，我正在寻找指导，因为我特别担心办公空间的情况，正如我们所谈到的那样。我担心占用率、净经营收入等方面的业务情况。这变得很棘手。而且我认为这可能会给整个经济讲述一个更大的故事。所以这就是我正在关注的地方。
Ryan, what are you going to be watching? Yeah, I was going to say guidance. And also, I want to see what margins look like because I want, especially with retailers, I want to understand what kind of discounting and promotional activity is happening and what pricing power looks like, how much control they have over pricing. And I also want to look at inventory levels because they're too high in a lot of different sectors as a result of weakness in the business. So I want to see if that inventory bleeds off.
Ryan，你要观看什么呢？是的，我本来要说指导方针的。此外，我也想看看利润率是什么样子的，尤其是与零售商有关的情况，我想了解正在发生什么样的折扣和促销活动，以及价格的掌控程度如何。我还想查看库存水平，因为很多不同行业的库存水平都过高，这是业务疲软的结果。所以我想看看这些库存是否会消耗掉。
This week, Disney began the process of laying off 7,000 employees, including in the group is the 50 people who make up Disney's entire division focused on the metaverse. It's being seen as another move by CEO Bob Iger to reverse decisions made by former CEO, Bob Chapeck. And Matt, we were talking about this earlier. I have to believe that a company like Meta Platforms, which is heavily invested in the metaverse, is not happy to see a company like Disney with all of that intellectual property just shutting this whole thing down.
这个礼拜，迪士尼开始裁员，总计7000人，其中还包括整个专注于元宇宙的50人团队。人们把这看作是CEO鲍勃·伊格为挽回前CEO鲍勃·查佩克的决策而采取的又一步。而马特，我们之前就在谈论这个。我相信像 Meta Platforms 这样大量投资于元宇宙的公司看到迪士尼这样拥有如此多知识产权的公司竟然关闭整个项目，肯定感到不满。
I agree. I don't think that's a good news item. If you're a Facebook meta Facebook. But I don't think this is yet a larger indictment on the idea of the metaverse. I think this is more about Iger just acting anything that he didn't create. So he's just, you know, he's kind of running roughshod over everything. Chapeck kind of created. It reminds me a little bit of Disney Interactive Studios, which was a video game subsidiary that Michael Eisner actually started before Bob Iger got there.
我同意。 我不认为这是一个好的新闻。如果你是Facebook的元Facebook，那么你可能会不同意我的看法。但我不认为这是针对元宇宙概念的大规模指责。我觉得这更多是关于艾格尔只是在干一切他没有创造的东西。所以他就是在肆无忌惮地妄为。这让我想起了迈克尔·艾斯纳创立的迪士尼互动工作室，这是一家视频游戏子公司，而鲍勃·艾格尔到达之前，艾斯纳已经开始运营了这个子公司。
And Bob Iger ended up killing that too because it lost a ton of money. I think it could never really compete with the larger video game publishers. And Iger eventually said, you know, we're just better at licensing our IP to companies like Sony and Activision rather than trying to make our own games.
鲍勃·艾格最终关闭了这个项目，因为它严重亏损了。我认为这个项目从一开始就无法与更大的视频游戏发行商竞争。艾格最终说，你知道吗，我们更擅长将我们的知识产权授权给像索尼和动视这样的公司，而不是试图制作我们自己的游戏。
So I think, I don't think this is Disney shutting things off. I think they're saying, let's wait for this market to mature. If it's a viable media universe, we're going to get our IP in front of it. And maybe this Apple news coming down this year might catalyze the metaverse to the way that Disney could actually start getting involved. Yeah. I think the metaverse does kind of make sense for a company like Disney. Or you actually, right? Or you know, a chain pack called the next great storytelling frontier. I can see that. That doesn't seem silly to me. And again, connecting the physical and digital worlds again for a company like Disney, I think that makes sense. Interestingly, Iger is not necessarily a metaverse skeptic. I believe he sits on the board of a startup called Genies, which is a company that helps users create avatars, which eventually are going to be used in the metaverse. So maybe down the road, we'll get back there.
我认为这不是迪士尼在关闭某些业务。我认为他们是在说，让我们等待这个市场成熟。如果这是一个可行的媒体世界，我们将把我们的知识产权放在前面。也许今年发布的苹果新闻能够推动元宇宙的发展，迪士尼就可以真正参与到其中。是的，我认为元宇宙对于像迪士尼这样的公司来说是有意义的。或者更确切地说，可以称之为下一个伟大的故事叙述领域。我能够理解这点。对于像迪士尼这样的公司来说，再次将物理世界和数字世界连接起来，我认为这是有意义的。有趣的是，艾格并不一定是元宇宙的怀疑者。我相信他是创业公司 Genies 的董事会成员，该公司帮助用户创建化身，最终将在元宇宙中使用。也许不久的将来，我们将回到那里。
For the break, we've got the latest reminder that not every acquisition ends up working out. Stay right here. You're listening to Motley Full Money.
我们接下来的休息时间，要提醒大家并不是所有的收购都能成功。请继续收听Motley Fool Money。
Welcome back to Motley Full Money. Chris Hill here in studio with Matt Argusinger and Ron Gross. Three years ago, Lula Lemon made its first acquisition ever when it paid $500 million for Mirror, a virtual home fitness company. In December of 2020, on our year in review episode, Ron picked the Mirror acquisition as his choice for the dumbest investment of 2020, saying he was not a fan of the acquisition and comparing it to underarmor, buying my fitness pal for $475 million and selling it years later at a loss. This week shares of Lula Lemon were up 15% after strong fourth quarter result.
欢迎收听《摩特利全额资金》节目！Chris Hill 在演播室里，和 Matt Argusinger 以及 Ron Gross 一起。三年前，Lula Lemon 开始了第一个并购交易，花费 5 亿美元购买虚拟家庭健身公司 Mirror。在去年年终回顾节目中，Ron 将 Mirror 并购列为 2020 年最愚蠢的投资之一，称自己并不是该并购的粉丝，并将其与 UnderArmor 收购 My Fitness Pal 的 4.75 亿美元的交易进行了比较。而后者多年后还亏本出售。这周，Lula Lemon 的股价上涨了 15%，因为他们的第四季度业绩表现非常强劲。
Anything else in that fourth quarter report? I don't like to tune my own horn, Chris, but they did have an impairment of about $443 million out of the 500. So just to review, they paid $500 million and they just wrote down, let's just call it 88 percent of it. Dad is what happened? Nice call, Ron. Nice call. Thank you.
第四季度报告里还有什么其他的内容吗？克里斯，我不想自夸，但他们的资产减值约为4.43亿美元，占500亿美元的比例大约为88%。所以，简单回顾一下，他们支付了5亿美元，只写下了它的88%。这是怎么回事？好判断，罗恩。好判断。谢谢。
They're not abandoning the fitness market. They're going to pursue it in a non-hardware way with a more app focused strategy, which probably makes sense. And if they had done that in the first place, I wouldn't have had to be critical in the first place. But I do want to say that shouldn't take away from the strength of Lula's business. Yes, that's a mistake. Okay, fine. But this has been a really wonderful business, a really wonderful stock. And the numbers back up the fact that they are continuing to execute quite well. For the quarter, revenue up 30 percent, that's 29 percent in North America and 35 percent internationally, CompSales up 27 percent, Direct to Consumer up 37 percent. Now Gross margins wore down. We still seeing some mark downs that are necessary to clear some inventory out. But in general, you saw very nice control of expenses with operating margins, actually up slightly, 50 basis points. Not slightly, half a percent. And the just the earnings as a result were up 30 percent. So they're continuing to get it done. They're doing a good job bringing inventories down. They're still high, but they're getting them down over time. And they gave strong first quarter and full year guidance, trading at 30 times, a premium price, but a premium company as well.
他们不会放弃健身市场。他们将通过更注重应用程序的策略来追求非硬件方面的发展，这可能很有道理。如果他们一开始就这样做的话，我就没有必要在首位发表批评。但是我想说，这不应该削弱Lula业务的实力。是的，这是一个错误。好吧，没问题。但这是一家非常出色的企业，一家非常出色的股票。数据表明，他们仍在继续良好执行。本季度，收入增长30％，北美增长29％，国际增长35％，同店销售额增长27％，直销销售额增长37％。现在毛利率下降了。我们仍然看到一些必要的折价清除一些库存。但总体上，你可以看到他们在控制支出方面做得非常好，实际上，营运利润率略有上升，50个基点。不是稍微，而是0.5％。由于收益增长了30％，所以他们仍在继续执行。他们正在努力将存货减少。虽然它们仍很高，但他们正在逐步减少。他们提供了强有力的第一季度和全年指导，以30倍的价格交易，是一个高价位，但也是一个高价值的公司。
Walgreens second quarter profits in revenue came in higher than Wall Street was expecting. CEO Ross Brewer highlighted the company's closing of its acquisition of summit health, saying Walgreens is now one of the largest players in primary care shares of Walgreens up more than 5 percent this week, Matt. Yeah, good results. And if you look at their core pharmacy business, the same store pharmacy sales there were up almost 5 percent, really strong, and then if you look at the US health care revenue, someone health is joining on a pro-former basis of 30 percent, you're over here. That's pretty strong.
沃尔格林第二季度的利润与收入高于华尔街的预期。CEO Ross Brewer强调了公司收购峰会医疗的关闭，表示沃尔格林现在是初级保健领域的最大参与者之一。沃尔格林的股票这个星期上涨了5%以上，Matt。是的，这是一个好的成绩。如果您看看他们的核心药房业务，同店销售额增长了近5%，非常强劲，而如果您看看美国医疗收入，峰会医疗在一个形式的基础上增长了30%，你在这里。这相当强劲。
But my question is, will the real Walgreens please stand up? I mean, because there's been so many moving parts to this company. If you look at the 5 billion majority investment they made in Village MD back in 2021, majority investments in companies like Shields and Care Centrics, then you've got the 5 billion Walgreens pay last fall to settle lawsuits, you know, related to its distribution of opioids over the years, then you've got the 9 billion dollar purchase of summit health. I mean, this has all happened within the past two years. And you know, the stock is under perform pretty starkly. It's down, it's lost about a third of its value over the last five years. So I just think if you're an investor looking at Walgreens, you got to let the dust settle on all these major capital moves, figure out, you know, how this US health care revenue business is going to work, and then you can kind of decide if you want to invest in the stock. But to me, there's just too many moving parts right now.
但我的问题是，瓦尔格林公司真的能站起来吗？我的意思是，因为这家公司已经有太多的变动部分了。如果你看看2021年他们在Village MD中做的50亿美元的多数投资，以及对公司如Shields和Care Centrics的多数投资，那么你就知道了，去年秋天瓦尔格林赔偿50亿美元，与多年来分销阿片类药物有关的诉讼，然后你又有90亿美元的峰会健康收购。我的意思是，这一切都发生在过去的两年内。而且你知道，股票表现非常糟糕。它下跌了，过去五年中失去了约三分之一的价值。所以我认为，如果你是一个关注瓦尔格林的投资者，你必须让所有这些重要的资本举措的火海缓解下来，弄清楚，你知道，这个美国医疗收入业务将如何运作，然后你才能决定是否要投资这个股票。但对我来说，现在有太多的动态部分了。
Yeah, it does seem like with all those acquisitions, it's if you're looking at this, if you're the board of directors, you're saying to Ros Brueh are like, okay, now let's put all of this stuff to work. Right. Let's just give it some time to bake, and then we can decide what to how to move forward.
是啊，看起来这些收购好像是在向董事会表明——罗斯·布鲁尔，好的，现在让我们把所有这些东西都拿来运用一下。对啊，我们就给它们一些时间烘烤，然后再决定如何继续推进。
The struggles continue for our age. Fourth quarter profits and revenue came in lower than expected for the company formerly known as restoration hardware shares of our age up a bit this week run, but the last year and a half has really been rough. Stock was at 700 and now we're around 238-ish, really been smacked. I don't want to hit a company necessarily only when it's down. For years, this was a wonderful investment. One of the best performing stocks really that we would talk about. But they have fallen on hard times right now and CEO Gary Feldman kind of went on a rant. I don't know how else to describe it on the conference call blaming the Fed, inflation, interest rates, the banking crisis, all of those things for a decline in the luxury housing market. And that kind of might be true, but ranting is really never a great look for a CEO. So a little bit of a strength there I think would have been the better part of valor. But the business is quite weak. The revenue down 15% gross margins down, operating margins down, 960 basis points. That's 9.6 percentage points, which is really, really weak. Earnings down 14%, but if we adjust for some benefits, some income tax benefits earnings were actually down 49% inventory way up as they're having trouble selling things in this environment. So during what they can, they're eliminating some jobs. They're trying to achieve cost savings of about $50 million annually. Guidance was weak. One thing that they always say, and I really don't like this, they say things like the market opportunity is seven to ten trillion dollars. And if we only get one percent, Chris, that's a $70 billion to a hundred billion dollar opportunity. I do not like to hear that kind of talk for management teams as an investor, as an analyst. That doesn't thrill me. So they'll get back to business once the market firms, but they are spread really thin with hospitality and housing and galleries. They may want to stick a little bit more to their knitting.
我们这个时代的困境仍在继续。前四个季度的利润和收入对于现在被称为“修复硬件”的公司来说低于预期，我们这个时代的股票本周有了一点上涨，但是过去一年半实在是非常艰难。股票从700跌至现在的238左右，十分惨痛。我不想打击一家公司，特别是它正处于困境之中。多年来，这是一个非常棒的投资。实际上，它是表现最好的股票之一。但是现在它们遭遇了困境，CEO加里·费尔德曼在电话会议上有一些狂言，他把对降低豪华房地产市场的责任归咎于美联储、通货膨胀、利率和银行危机，这可能是真的，但是发泄情绪对于CEO来说不是一个好的形象。所以我认为保持一些强势是明智之举。但是该公司业务非常疲软，收入下降了15％，毛利下降，经营利润下降了960个基础点，即9.6个百分点，这实在是非常弱。收益下降了14％，但是如果我们考虑一些收益所得税的好处，实际上收益下降了49％。他们的存货增加了很多，因为在当前的环境下他们很难销售商品。因此，在他们力所能及的范围内，他们正在裁员。他们正在努力实现每年大约五千万美元的成本节约。该公司的业绩预期不佳。有一件事他们经常说，而我不太喜欢听到的是，他们说市场机会有七到十万亿美元，如果我们只占到1％，那就是700亿到1000亿美元的机会。作为投资者和分析师，我不喜欢听到这种话。一旦市场反弹，他们会回到业务中来，但是他们在酒店、房地产和画廊中分散力量。他们可能希望更加专注于自己的主业。
Shares of McCormick up nearly 15% this week after first quarter profits came in higher than expected. The Spice Maker also reaffirmed guidance for the full fiscal year.
麦考密克的股票上周上涨了近15％，原因是第一季度利润超过预期。这位调料制造商也重申了整个财政年度的指导方针。
Matt, what stood out to you in McCormick's report?
马特，麦考密克的报告中什么让你格外关注？
Well, it's the strength of their flavor solution segment, which is their commercial food segment that serves restaurants and other major food manufacturers. The beauty, I think, in McCormick is really, you've got this great balance between the retail and consumer facing side, which makes up about 60% of sales, and this commercial business, which makes up about 40%.
嗯，他们的味道解决方案部分的实力在于商业食品部分，为餐馆和其他主要食品制造商提供服务。我认为McCormick的美妙之处在于，你可以在零售和消费者面对面的方面找到很好的平衡，这占销售额的约60%，以及这个商业业务，它占约40%。
So during the pandemic, as people were at home, they cooked more, and people cooked predominantly for the first time in their life. McCormick did really well with their consumer segment. Now that people are going back to restaurants and going out more, the commercial side of the business is picking up the slack where the consumer business is slowing down a little bit. So it's just got this really great balance, and of course you've got a dividend that continues to grow very nicely.
在疫情期间，人们待在家里更多，所以他们做饭的次数增加了，很多人第一次开始做饭。McCormick在消费者领域表现得非常好。现在人们开始回到餐厅和外出更多，商业部门正在弥补消费者业务的一些放缓。所以它有一个非常不错的平衡，当然还有一个持续增长的股息。
I just think McCormick always seems to trade with such a huge premium, and it shares right now it's 32 times earnings. Now it's always traded for premium, so I'm not going to, I'm not going to quibble, but I would just say, gosh, if you could ever get this business cheap, which is rare, it'd be quite an opportunity. From memory, I think there are also pretty good acquisitions. Where Chalula was an acquisition, I think made really good sense. Some other, some other, some other, some other. Frank's Red Hot. Frank's Red Hot. I like these acquisitions, and I often don't like acquisitions that companies make. I wonder if they have something else up their sleeve coming up.
我觉得麦考密克总是似乎以极高的溢价进行交易，现在的股票价格是32倍收益。不过，它一直以来都以高溢价交易，所以我不会争论，只是觉得如果你能以便宜的价格得到这个生意，那会是个很好的机会。从记忆中，我认为它们也做了一些非常好的收购。像Chalula这样的收购非常明智，还有其他一些，比如Frank's Red Hot。我喜欢这些收购，而通常我不喜欢公司做的收购。我想知道他们是否还有其他计划。
How seriously do you take the expiration date on spices?
你对香料的保质期有多重视？
That's one of those things where it's like, look, for medicine, I'm taking that very seriously. For spices, I'm like, really? I have to buy a whole new bottle. They do say if it's been sitting in your cabinet for like more than six months or so, that the flavor kind of goes away. But I think you can get away with it.
那是一件这样的事情，你知道，对于药品，我非常认真对待。对于调料，我觉得真的需要吗？我得买一整瓶。虽然有人说，如果它在你的柜子里放了六个月以上，那味道可能就没了。但我认为可以省点钱。
All right, Matt Argus, your wrong gross guy. We'll see you a little bit later in the show.
好的，马特·阿格斯，你错了，那个恶心的家伙。稍后节目我们再见。
Up next is Jeff Bezos preparing a comeback to his former job at Amazon. Bloomberg Senior Tech reporter Brad Stone weighs in. Stay right here. We're listening to Motley Fool Money.
接下来是杰夫·贝索斯准备回到亚马逊的原职位。彭博资深科技记者布拉德·斯通发表评论。请继续收听《摩特利富》。
Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. I'm Chris Hill. Brad Stone is the head of Global Technology Coverage for Bloomberg News. He's also the author of several bestselling books, including Amazon Unbound, Jeff Bezos, and the invention of a global empire. He joins me now from California.
欢迎回到“Motley Fool Money”的节目。我是克里斯·希尔。布拉德·斯通是彭博新闻社全球科技报道的负责人。他还写了几本畅销书，包括《亚马逊：无拘无束》、《杰夫·贝索斯：一位世界帝国的创造者》。现在他从加利福尼亚州加入我的节目。
Brad, always good talking to you. Thanks for being here.
布拉德，和你交谈总是很愉快的。谢谢你来这里。
Hi, Chris. Good to be here.
嗨，克里斯。很高兴来到这里。
Let's start with Amazon. CEO Andy Jassy has announced a couple of rounds of layoffs over the past few months, 28,000 jobs, which is a small percentage of the overall workforce at Amazon. But it's also a population that is bigger than a lot of towns in the United States. And I'm curious what your thoughts are on the way Jassy and his team are approaching this, because there are certainly those who think if you're going to do layoffs, you only want to do it once. And they've done it twice. And it's, I don't think it's going to surprise a lot of people if there's a third round later this year.
咱们先从亚马逊开始。CEO安迪·贾西在过去几个月宣布了几轮裁员，总计28000个工作岗位，虽然这只是亚马逊整个员工队伍的一小部分，但这个数字已经超过美国很多城镇的人口。我想知道您对贾西及其团队的处理方式有何看法，因为肯定有人认为如果您要裁员，您只想做一次，但他们已经做了两次。如果今年晚些时候进行第三轮裁员，这不会让很多人感到惊讶。
Right, yeah, no, the number might be relatively small, but the significance is high. Amazon has been in growth mode for most of its 30 years. I can point to a couple of years during the dot-com bust where they had some layoffs and slowed hiring, but essentially things have been up into the right.
是的，没错，虽然数字可能相对较小，但意义重大。亚马逊大部分的30年时间里一直处于增长模式。在互联网泡沫期间的一些年份他们曾进行过一些裁员和减缓招聘的工作，但基本上一直是向上成长的。
Now, you know, Jassy has had to deal with some pretty extraordinary circumstances, not just the pandemic, and then the resulting slowed out in e-commerce. But arguably the kind of Jeff Bezos-led over building that preceded the pandemic. And I think he's been in adjustment mode, course correction mode. I also think that, you know, the inflation has thrown another variable into the mix, and probably also a declining stock price down what? 30% over the last 12 months, maybe more. And Jassy probably catering a little bit to shareholders, to investors, to try to write the ship and change the sentiment around Amazon.
"现在，你知道了，Jassy不仅要处理一些非常特殊的情况，不仅是大流行病，以及由此导致的电子商务放缓。但可以说，这种在疫情之前由杰夫·贝佐斯领导的过度建设已经出现了。我认为他一直在进行调整，进行航向修正。我还认为，通货膨胀又引入了另一个变量，而且可能也导致了股价下跌，下跌了多少？在过去的12个月中，可能下跌了30%以上。Jassy可能会稍微满足股东、投资者，试图改变人们对亚马逊的情绪。”
To your point, it hasn't been handled as elegantly as possible. The idea that the latest thing is that they were stopping construction on the second phase of HQ2 is, you know, another black guy for a company and a process that was viewed very skeptically by a lot of people for a long time.
就你说的这点，事情处理得可能不够优雅。最新的想法是，他们正在停止HQ2第二阶段的建设，这对于一个被很多人长期以来持怀疑态度的公司和过程来说是又一个打击。
So this is the handpicked successor of Jeff Bezos. How happy do you think Bezos is with the overall job that Jassy has done for the last couple of years?
那么这就是杰夫·贝佐斯亲自挑选的继任者。你认为在过去几年中，他对贾西所做的整体工作满意吗？
My belief is that if Bezos is doing a full accounting here, then he probably, you know, a lot of the things that have gone wrong over the last two years can't really be laid at Jassy's feet. I think he would have to look at some decisions that he made himself over the past five years.
我认为，如果贝佐斯在这里进行全面核算，那么在过去两年中出现的很多问题不能完全归咎于贾西。我认为他必须审视他自己在过去五年中所做出的一些决定。
Let's look specifically at what Amazon has cut back on or stopped doing over the past in the past two rounds of last. A lot of the physical retail, the Amazon ghost stores, the book stores, those four star stores, you know, that was the Bezos-led initiative. He was pushing the company into physical retail and experimenting and they've rolled it back. Kind of didn't work. The device's business. Alexa, Alexa was originated and envisioned and orchestrated by Bezos himself. And it was an idea that Amazon could be the front-end Genai and that conversational assistance were the way that people would interact with chatbots.
我们具体看看亚马逊在过去两轮裁员中削减或停止了哪些业务。其中很多是实体零售业务，比如亚马逊的幽灵店、书店、那些四星级店，你们知道的，这是贝佐斯领导的计划。他推动公司进军实体零售，并进行试验，但是他们已经在收缩这个业务。这个设备业务也一样。Alexa这个概念是贝佐斯自己想出来并策划的，他认为亚马逊可以成为前端Genai，而对话助手是人们与聊天机器人互动的方式。
And now over the past few months, we've seen that that may not be true, that there's this technology called chat GPT that is much more interesting than Alexa. It'll be interesting how Amazon pivots there, but they've had to, they've certainly had to take account of that. And then everything in this fulfillment center is Amazon subleasing out space that it bought and didn't need. You know, that's a lot of.
过去几个月，我们看到不一定是真的，有一种叫做Chat GPT的技术比Alexa更有趣。亚马逊现在的转向将是很有趣的，但他们必须要考虑这个技术。此外，这个配送中心所有的空间都是亚马逊购买但不需要的，然后再次出租。这可真是太多了。
So, I guess my answer is, my guess is that Bezos is in second guessing, Jesse. My view is that he's probably not as involved, even as maybe Jesse and the other board members might have hoped that Bezos has really moved on and that this is firmly Andy Jassy's company. So the speculation that he might pull a bob-ig or pull a Howard Schultz and come back for another run as CEO, you're not betting on that. It's fanciful. He has moved on.
那么，我猜我的答案就是，我猜测Bezos正在对Jesse进行第二次猜测。我的观点是，他可能没有参与得像Jesse和其他董事会成员希望的那样多，Bezos确实已经放手，这已经是Andy Jassy的公司了。所以，关于他可能像Bob-ig或Howard Schultz一样回来再次担任CEO的猜测，你不应该押注。这是想象的，他已经前进了。
The name of the yacht, the super yacht crest, he might remember. The yacht is called Kauru and it means reinvention. And that's what Bezos has done right in front of our very eyes, physically, romantically, and lifestyle-wise. And he has moved on. We may find out soon that he bid for the Washington commanders. That process is ongoing as we speak. He has bought property in Hawaii. He's got the yacht now. He is fully involved in his climate philanthropy. He's got a set of headaches to deal with at the Washington Post. So no, he's not one to revisit previous decisions.
那艘豪华游艇的名字是“Kauru”，意思是重生。贝索斯在我们眼前进行了身体、浪漫和生活方式上的转变，就像他重新定义了自己一样。他已经前行了。我们可能很快就会知道他是否为华盛顿指挥官竞标。这个过程正在进行中。他还购买了夏威夷的房产，并拥有了那艘游艇。他全力投入于他的气候慈善事业。他在《华盛顿邮报》上有一系列问题要处理。因此，他不是那种重新考虑之前决定的人。
If anything, if you were to ask me to guess, I would say that we'd be more likely to see him drop the executive title in his role as executive chairman that much more likely than to see him return to data to operations at Amazon. Well, since I'm coming to you from the Greater Washington DC area and it is a regular topic of conversation in these parts with the expectation that Dan Sider is going to sell his NFL team, how serious do you think Bezos is about becoming an NFL owner? I think he's serious.
如果你要问我猜测，我认为他更有可能在执行董事长的职务时放弃执行职务的头衔，而不是回到亚马逊的运营部门。嗯，由于我来自华盛顿特区，这是我们这里的常规话题，人们期望丹·西德将出售他的NFL球队，你认为贝佐斯成为NFL球队的所有者有多严肃？我认为他很严肃。
There's enough smoke here. I mean, we know that he hired Allen & Company, I think the New York Post reported that. We know that Sider, at least early on, blocked him from bidding because of enmity around the post coverage of Sider's tenure as owner. We don't know if that's still true. I'm sure he would love Bezos to bid it up a little bit. I don't know if Bezos has come back to the table after being rebuffed. But all this indicates to me that he sees this as another fun adventure for him to have in the stage in his career. So I think if it's not the commanders, it's likely that when the Seattle Seahawks comes through the state process that it's currently in, that he could be a bit of a team. I definitely think he's interested.
这里烟雾很浓。我是说，我们知道他聘请了Allen＆Company，我想《纽约邮报》报道过这件事。我们知道Sider至少在早期因为对《邮报》报道他担任业主的不满而阻止了他的竞标。我们不知道现在是否仍然是这样。我相信他会很高兴贝索斯能够提高竞标价格。我不知道贝索斯是否已经重新回到谈判桌前。但所有这些都表明他认为这是他职业生涯中的另一个有趣的冒险。所以我认为如果不是指挥官，那么当西雅图海鹰队通过当前的州立程序时，他可能会成为其中的一员。我绝对认为他很感兴趣。
Here this week, Alibaba announced it's going to be splitting itself into six separate companies. How seriously do you think companies like Amazon and Alphabet are considering some version of a similar move if they are even considering it at all? Yeah. Well, let me take Amazon because Alphabet does not necessarily as much in my strike zone, nor do I think the activist pressure would be as intense. And I'll get to that in a second.
这个星期，阿里巴巴宣布将分拆成六个独立公司。你认为像亚马逊和Alphabet这样的公司是否正在认真考虑采取类似的行动，如果他们有考虑的话？
嗯，我来谈谈亚马逊，因为我认为Alphabet并不是我关注的领域，也没有那么强烈的激励压力。我一会儿会解释。
But Andy Jassy is a first generation Amazonian. He feels ownership over the entire thing. He started his career in the retail side of Amazon selling CDs and DVDs. He was on the advertising business and marketing business. And then he was basically the founding CEO of AWS before Bezos made him CEO of the whole thing. He's much likelier to have the Bezos view that this business is stronger together.
但安迪·贾西是一位Amazon新一代的员工。他对整个业务都感到有所拥有。他的职业生涯始于Amazon的零售业务，销售CD和DVD。他曾担任广告业务和营销业务的职位。接着，他基本上是AWS的创始CEO，之后贝佐斯让他成为整个公司的CEO。他更有可能持有贝佐斯的观点，即这个业务在一起更强大。
Now the key point here is activist shareholders who are noting the huge run up in Alibaba stock and all the excitement around the IPOs of the particular six divisions. And I think that's got to be, you know, people are noticing that. And I just do wonder if activists come to Amazon and advocate for something like this. All kind of defense that they could have after a two year period where the stock performance has been so dismal.
现在关键点在于激进的股东，他们注意到阿里巴巴股价的大幅上涨以及对六个特定部门的IPO（首次公开募股）所产生的所有兴奋。我认为人们必须意识到这一点，我也开始想，如果激进派到亚马逊提出类似的建议，会怎样。在经历了股票表现如此糟糕的两年之后，他们可能会采取各种防御措施。
Historically, it's been Bezos the founder and his credibility that has protected Amazon. But with the distracted and detached Bezos, I'm not sure the defense is as strong. I don't think they're considering it to answer your question directly. I just don't feel like that's something that Jassy would want to spend time on. But the question is, if the current stock performance continues and the Alibaba split up as seen as a great success, will activist force Amazon to consider it. And I think it's possible. It's likely.
从历史上来看，亚马逊的保护者一直是创始人贝佐斯以及他的信誉。但是现在的贝佐斯显得有些分心、疏离，我不确定这种保护力度是否仍然强大。直接回答你的问题，我认为他们并没有考虑过这个。我只是觉得，贾西不会想要花时间去考虑这件事情。但问题是，如果目前的股票表现持续不断，并且像阿里巴巴的拆分一样被视为巨大的成功，那么激进分子是否会强迫亚马逊考虑这个问题。我认为这是有可能的。也有很大可能发生。
I want to move on to something that you and I were chatting about during the break. And it's, you know, as hot a topic in the tech world as there is. And it's chat GPT. I mentioned OpenAI is based right there in San Francisco. Where do you think all of this is going in the near term? The next six to 12 months. What are you hearing from people you talk to and what are you going to be watching for in terms of business achievements or milestones to give you a sense of what the next 12 months looks like for chat GPT and AI in general?
我想谈谈咱们休息时讨论的一件事。这可是科技界最热门的话题之一 - 聊天GPT。我提到过OpenAI就在旧金山。在近期内，您认为这一切会走向何方？接下来的六到十二个月里，您从您的交谈对象那里听到了什么，您将关注哪些商业成就或里程碑，以了解聊天GPT和AI在一般范畴内接下来12个月的发展趋势？
I don't apologize by the fact that the emergence and popularity of chat GPT and Dolly before it took me by surprise. It took the industry by surprise. Google was taken by surprise. But the attention, the hype around it has been extraordinary. So I don't have a crystal ball. I think that very soon we're going to start to see a litany of competitive responses from the likes of Amazon. In terms of how AWS extends some of these capabilities to its customers, to developers.
我不因聊天GPT和之前的Dolly突然出现并流行而道歉，这也让我感到意外。整个行业都感到意外，甚至包括谷歌。但是，它所引起的注意和炒作是非常惊人的。所以，我没有水晶球。我认为不久之后，我们会看到像亚马逊这样的竞争对手开始推出一系列的反应，以扩展AWS对客户和开发人员的能力。
Google I.O. is coming up in the spring. I think it's going to be wholly AI focused. This is Google's conference. And we're going to see a litany of announcements. And we're going to see Sundar Pachai and maybe what could be almost considered a job saving campaign because the critics are out for him now. Talking about his personal view and philosophy on AI and why Google is set to recapture the lead. Arguably, it has the deepest bench, but OpenAI really did take it by surprise.
谷歌 I.O.将在春天举行，我认为会完全集中于人工智能。这是谷歌的会议，我们将看到大量的公告。我们还将看到 Sundar Pachai，也许可以说是一场拯救工作的运动，因为批评者现在对他很不满意。谈论他的个人观点和哲学，以及为什么谷歌为重新夺回领先地位而做出努力。可以说，谷歌拥有最深厚的阵容，但 OpenAI 确实给它带来了意外。
And I think we're going to see more conversation about some of the scary possible ethical implications of these technologies and what it means for jobs and for society and education when kids have access to get AI to do their homework and write their papers for them. And then the next incarnation of these things, GPT-5. We just saw GPT-4, just came out. Subscribers to OpenAI can access it. It's a remarkable leap. The next incarnation will be even more interesting. So I think, to me, it's exciting. It's one of these stages in Silicon Valley where the tech is surprising us and forcing us to reconsider our assumptions about, frankly, how we're doing our jobs and living our lives and what it means that this technology is now available. So it's an exciting and unpredictable time.
我认为，我们将会看到更多关于这些技术可能带来的可怕的伦理影响的讨论，以及当孩子们可以使用人工智能来完成作业和写论文时，它对于就业、社会和教育的意义。接着就是这些技术的下一个版本，GPT-5。我们刚刚看到了GPT-4，它刚刚发布。OpenAI的订阅者可以访问它。这是一个显著的飞跃。下一代将会更有趣。所以我认为，这对我来说是激动人心的。这是硅谷的一个阶段，在这个阶段，技术正在让我们感到惊讶，强迫我们重新考虑我们对于如何做我们的工作和生活，以及这项技术现在可用的意义的假设。所以这是一个令人兴奋和不可预测的时期。
In addition to your reporting and writing, you are also involved with the podcast Foundering a show that takes a closer look at drama in the tech industry. What about the latest season? Oh, yeah. Thanks, Chris. I appreciate the opportunity to talk about it. We've now done four seasons of Foundering. I did a season actually on Amazon. That was season three. And season four, we wanted to mix it up a little bit, is the rise and fall of John McAfee. And he's the cybersecurity pioneer who almost invented the industry in the late 80s, early 90s. And I would say right off the edge into the world of drug experimentation and violence and crypto scams. There was a presidential run in there. He was on the lamb and then died under mysterious circumstances. So it's a wild story. And my colleagues did a great job with it. You can check out the Foundering podcast wherever you get your podcasts and pick up a copy of Amazon Unbound Jeff Bezos and the invention of a global empire. It is a great read. And one of the best business books I've read over the last few years, Brad Stone, appreciate the time.
除了报道和写作，你还参与了播客节目Foundering，这个节目对科技行业的戏剧性事件进行了更深入的探讨。最新一季呢？噢，是的。谢谢，克里斯。我很感激有机会谈论它。我们已经做了四个季节的Foundering。我实际上在第三季节做的是关于亚马逊的。而第四季节，我们想要有所变化，是讲述网络安全先驱约翰·麦克菲的崛起和衰落。他几乎是在80年代末90年代初创立了这个行业。但后来沉迷于毒品、暴力和加密诈骗。他还竞选总统时被通缉，然后在神秘的情况下去世了。这是一个疯狂的故事。我的同事们做得非常出色。您可以在任何您获取播客的地方听Foundering节目，并阅读Jeff Bezos和全球帝国的创造，这是我在过去几年里读过的最好的商业书籍之一。Brad Stone，感谢您的时间。
Always great to talk to him with you. Thank you, Chris. Appreciate it. Coming up after the break, Matt Argusinger and Ron Gross return. They got a couple of stocks on their radar. So stay right here. You're listening to Motley for money. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about. And the Motley for may have formal recommendations for or against an on buyer's health stock space solely on what you hear.
总是和你和他谈话很棒，谢谢你，克里斯。非常感谢。广告后，马特·阿尔古辛格和罗恩·格罗斯回来了。他们有几只股票在他们的雷达上。所以请继续留在这里。您正在收听摩利为钱。像往常一样，节目中的人可能对他们谈论的股票感兴趣。摩利为可能会对买家健康股票领域有正式的推荐或反对意见，完全基于您所听到的。
Welcome back to Motley for money. Chris Hill here in studio once again with Matt Argusinger and Ron Gross. You can hear Motley for money every weekend on radio stations across America. You can also listen seven days a week on your favorite podcast app. For example, we have a conversation with Motley for co-founder David Gardner coming up on the podcast. So take out your phone, open up your favorite podcast app. And with one click of a button, you can follow Motley for money and never miss an episode.
欢迎回到《摩利赚钱》。我是主持人克里斯·希尔，今天和马特·阿古辛格以及罗恩·格罗斯一起在工作室中。请记住，每个周末您都可以在美国各地的广播电台中听到《摩利赚钱》，而且您还可以在您最喜欢的播客应用中一周七天听我们的内容。比如，我们即将在播客中与《摩利赚钱》联合创始人大卫·加德纳进行访谈。所以，请拿出您的手机，打开最喜欢的播客应用，只需点击一个按钮，您就可以关注《摩利赚钱》，永远不会错过任何一期节目。
Our email address is podcast at full.com. Question from Tim and Wisconsin who writes about shares of Moderna in the summer of 2019 after listening to your show. I'm interested in your thoughts about continuing to hold this stock versus selling for other opportunities. What do you think, Ron?
我们的电子邮件地址是podcast at full.com。蒂姆和威斯康辛来信，谈到在听完你们的节目后，于2019年夏季购买了Moderna公司的股份。我想知道你对于继续持有这支股票还是卖出去寻找其他机会有何想法，罗恩？
Good question, Tim. So it is a recommendation on our rule breaker service and that the recommendation is partially based on the excitement around mRNA medicines, which use the patient's own body to manufacture proteins that heal or prevent disease. And that is actually the technology that allowed them to create the COVID vaccine so quickly. They got $18 billion in cash. It will allow them to develop their 46 drugs that they have in their pipeline. But it's not all good news because the COVID vaccine demand is significantly down. There's going to be a 73% decline likely in revenue from that this year. Future revenue beyond 2023 could be even less.
汤姆，好问题。那么这是针对我们的违规服务的一项推荐，部分基于在mRNA药物周围的激动，这些药物使用患者自己的身体制造能够治疗或预防疾病的蛋白质。事实上，正是这种技术使得他们能够如此迅速地创造出新冠疫苗。他们得到了180亿美元的资金，这将使他们能够开发他们正在研究的46种药物。但并不是所有的消息都是好消息，因为新冠疫苗需求大幅下降。预计今年其收入将会下降73%。2023年以后的未来收入可能更少。
But at seven times earnings with strong technology, strong balance sheet, probably fine as part of a well-diversified portfolio. I just personally wouldn't want it to be an outsized position.
以七倍盈利率、强大的技术和稳健的资产负债表来看，该公司可能是一个良好多样化投资组合的一部分。但我个人不希望它成为过大的持仓。
This year Pepsi will celebrate its 125th anniversary. And as part of that, the company unveiled an updated logo this week. Pepsi will start using the new logo this fall in the US and Canada and then roll out to the rest of the world in 2024. Matt, they've been working on this for literally years. I would love to know as a shareholder how much money they spent on this new logo.
今年百事可乐将庆祝其125周年。作为庆祝活动的一部分，这家公司本周推出了更新的标志。百事可乐将从今年秋天在美国和加拿大开始使用这个新的标志，并计划于2024年在全球推广。马特，他们已经在这个上面工作了好几年了。作为股东，我很想知道他们在这个新标志上花了多少钱。
I like it. I've seen the logo. It looks good. But if they come out and say we spent $200 million developing this, I'm going to be chagrant. Well, you know, it's, it's, their brand is everything. And I have to say I like it as well. I'm a much more navy blue guy than a royal blue guy. So I like that color. If I had to go mad bit on it, I would say I don't, I think the Pepsi name is a little too bold. But otherwise I like it. It's probably worth every penny. I'm just going to say it's a circle. And it's red, white and blue. And it says Pepsi. I could have gotten that for much cheaper than they fade. Next time Pepsi wants to update their logo, they should get in touch with Ron Gross.
我喜欢它，我看过了这个标志，看起来很好看。但是如果他们说我们花了两亿美元开发这个，我会感到非常不爽。好吧，你知道，它们的品牌就是一切。我必须说，我也喜欢它。我更偏向于深蓝色而不是皇家蓝色。所以我喜欢那个颜色。如果要我啰嗦一下，我会说百事可乐的名字可能有点过于醒目了。但除此之外，我喜欢它。它可能值每一分钱。我只想说它是一个圆形的，是红白蓝的，并且上面写着百事可乐。他们花的钱太多了，我认为我只需要花比他们更少的钱就能做出来了。下次百事可乐想要更新他们的标志，他们应该联系Ron Gross。
All right, let's get to the stocks on our radar, our man behind the glass, Dan Boyd is going to hit you with a question. Matt Argusinger, you're up first. What are you looking at this week?
好的，让我们来谈谈我们关注的股票，我们的玻璃幕后人员Dan Boyd将向您提出一个问题。Matt Argusinger，你先来。你这周在关注什么？
All right, I'm going with EPR properties. The ticker is EPR. It's a real estate investment trust. That focuses on experiential properties. So you got resorts, restaurants, bowling alleys, top golf is a major tenant. Places where people go to enjoy fun experiences. But they get 45% of the revenue, Dan, from movie theaters. And by the way, one of their movie theaters, tenants is Regal, whose parent company just filed for bankruptcy. So immediately they say, they're in trouble. But not really. All the rent continues to be paid even by Regal. This could be your record year for the box office. And by the way, Amazon, Apple are looking to spend quite a bit of money putting out films that they want to go to cinemas first. So if you're an investor who can tolerate some risk, Dan, EPR's div and yield is almost 9%. Well covered by the company's operating cash flows, balance sheets and decent shape, and the other parts of the business, non-theater parts are doing just fine.
好的，我要选择EPR的房地产投资信托，股票代码是EPR。它专注于体验性物业，包括度假胜地、餐厅、保龄球馆和热门的高尔夫球场等人们享受乐趣体验的场所。但是，45%的收入来自电影院。顺便说一句，他们其中一个电影院的租户是Regal，而其母公司刚刚申请破产。所以人们会认为他们很麻烦，但实际上并非如此。甚至Regal也继续支付租金。今年可能会刷新票房纪录。此外，亚马逊和苹果正在考虑投资大量资金推出电影，希望先在电影院上映。如果你是一位能够承受一些风险的投资者，那么EPR的股息和收益率几乎达到了9%。公司的运营现金流、资产负债表都处于良好状态，并且其他业务部分也很好。
One question about EPR properties. Matt, I want you to guess the last, the year, the last time I was in a movie theater. 2019. You're correct. What movie did I see, Matt? Oh my gosh. I saw cats and it was terrible. I would have never guessed that. Wow. You must have had that theater to yourself. It was like a Saturday afternoon. It was empty. It was, it was great and also terrible because the movie is real bad.
马特，我有一个关于EPR属性的问题。你猜猜我上一次去电影院是什么时候。是2019年。你猜对了。那你知道我看的是什么电影吗？哦天啊，我看的是《猫》，真的很糟糕。我从没想过会是那部电影。哇，你应该独自一人在电影院看吧。那是一个周六下午，没有人。这真是太棒了，但电影真的很烂。
Ron Gross, what are you looking at this week? I'm looking at Westco International, WCC, originally formed in 1922 as the in-house distribution arm of Westinghouse Electric. You remember Westinghouse? Leaving provider of business to business distribution, logistic services and supply chain solutions. They're capitalizing a lot of exciting growth trends, grid modernization, green energy, automation, digitalization. And then more than a typical distributor, they offer a strong service component to their business and to their customers. So they have those competitive advantage. They have scale, distribution and service. Their backlog is at an all-time high. Free cash flow is set to increase significantly over the years.
Ron Gross，你这周在看什么？我在看Westco International，简称WCC，最初于1922年作为Westinghouse Electric的内部分销部门成立。你还记得Westinghouse吗？他们是商业分销、物流服务和供应链解决方案的领先提供商。他们正在利用许多令人兴奋的增长趋势，包括电网现代化、绿色能源、自动化和数字化。除了一般分销商，他们还提供强大的服务组件来支持自己以及客户的业务，因此他们有竞争优势。他们拥有规模、分销和服务。他们的积压订单创历史新高，自由现金流预计未来数年会大幅增长。
My friends over at Value Hunter Service that we have here at the full thinks that it has meaningful upside at current prices.
我这里的价值猎人服务团队认为，这家公司当前的股价具有有意义的上涨潜力。
Dan, question about Westco International? Not really a question, Chris. That's more of a comment. You know why I love it when Ron is on the show because he brings a company that I've never heard of and it's huge and super important to the entire world. There you go.
丹，关于Westco International有问题吗？其实不是一个问题，克里斯。更像是一条评论。你知道我为什么喜欢罗恩上节目，因为他带来的公司我从未听过，但它却是全世界重要的巨型公司。就是这样。
That's kind of a nice thought. I can't tell if he's being sarcastic. I'm not. I'm being earnest. I love it. I've never heard of this company and it seems like they're, well, if they disappeared tomorrow, a lot of businesses would be in trouble.
这个想法还蛮不错的。我不知道他是不是在挖苦我。但我是认真的。我喜欢它。我从没听说过这个公司，但它似乎很重要，如果它明天消失了，很多企业会受到影响。
What do you want to add to your watch list, Dan? I'll tell you what I don't want to add to my watch list, Chris. That's movie theaters. All right. That's fair.
丹，你想把什么加入你的观影列表呢？克里斯，我可以告诉你我不想加入观影列表的是电影院。好的，那很公平。
That's it. That's it.
这就是了。这就是了。
Ron Gross, Matt Argusinger. Thanks for being here. Thanks, Chris.
感谢你们来到这里，Ron Gross和Matt Argusinger。谢谢，Chris。
Yes. Drop us an email podcastatfool.com. That's podcastatfool.com. Keep sending us your questions about stocks and investing.
是的。给我们发送一封电子邮件到 podcastatfool.com。就是 podcastatfool.com。继续向我们发送有关股票和投资的问题。
That's going to do it for this week's Motley Full Money Radio Show. The show is mixed by Dan Boyd. I'm Chris Hill. Thanks for listening. We'll see you next time.
这就是本周的Motley Full Money电台节目了。节目由丹·博伊德混音。我是克里斯·希尔。谢谢你们的收听。我们下次再见。