Markets Weekly January 27, 2024

Hello, my friends. Today is January 27th and this is Markets Weekly. So this week we're going to talk about three things. First, let's talk about what's going on in China. There's been a lot of news this past week and it looks like the government is pulling out all the stops and trying to support the market. Let's talk about what's going on there.

大家好，我的朋友们。今天是1月27日，这是本周市场周报。所以这周我们将谈论三件事情。首先，让我们来谈谈中国的情况。最近一周有很多新闻，看起来政府正在不遗余力地支持市场。让我们来看看那里正在发生什么。

Secondly, this past week we got an amazing GTP print and it looks like the soft landing is fully achieved and it's time to move on and think about what the economic data might look like going forward. And lastly, let's preview what's happening this coming week because it's going to be a huge week for markets. We got the Fed, we got the Treasury, we got big tech earnings and we got the non-form payroll report on Friday. It's going to be exciting.

其次，上周我们获得了一份令人惊喜的GTP报告，看起来软着陆已经完全实现，现在是时候继续前进并思考未来的经济数据可能是什么样子了。最后，让我们预览一下即将到来的这个星期，因为这将是市场上一个重要的星期。我们将有美联储、财政部、大型科技公司的盈利报告以及周五的非农就业报告。这将是令人兴奋的。

Okay, starting with China. Well, first, a little bit of background. Let's look at the Chinese stock market index, the CSI 300. So as you can see, it's not been having a good time. It's been steadily declining for a few years in a big way. In contrast, when you look at the US, when you look at Germany, when you look at India, these stock markets all across the world have been going up and making new highs, Japan and Brazil as well. So China really stands out as having a stock market that's not been doing well. And there are a lot of reasons for this.

好的，我们从中国开始讲。首先，简单介绍一下背景情况。我们来看一下中国的股市指数，即中证500指数。正如你所看到的，它的表现并不好。它在过去几年中一直大幅下跌。相比之下，当我们看美国、德国、印度以及世界各地的股市，这些股市都在上涨并创下新高，日本和巴西也是如此。因此，中国股市的表现确实与众不同，并不理想。这其中有很多原因。

For example, as we all know, the Chinese government kept their COVID policy much more strict than many other governments. So for many of the people there, they were under lockdown for a long time. We also have, say, trouble in the property sector, where as we've all read in the news, property prices have been tanking and property is a big part of their economy. And of course, we have big crackdowns from the government on Chinese big tech, where even stored companies like Alibaba have really been not doing well. And I think there has also appeared where it seems like the founder of Alibaba magically disappeared for some time. So there's been a lot of things going there that have obviously not been stock market positive.

例如，众所周知，中国政府对COVID政策的执行比许多其他国家更为严格。因此，对于许多人来说，他们长时间处于封锁状态。另外，我们也面临房地产领域的困扰，正如我们在新闻中所看到的，房价一直在暴跌，而房地产占据了他们经济的很大一部分。当然，我们还面临来自政府对中国大型科技公司的严厉打压，即使像阿里巴巴这样的知名企业也表现糟糕。而且我认为还有一些奇怪的情况出现，比如阿里巴巴的创始人神秘消失一段时间。显然，这些事情对股市没有带来积极的影响。

But what we're beginning to see now is that there's more and more, I guess, political will over there for the government to try to stem the bleeding and put a bottom on the stock market. So when you're looking at China, I think it's really important to realize that China operates very differently from Western economies. One way of thinking about this that I heard on a podcast recently is that in, say, the US capital directs policy, but in China policy directs capital.

但是我们现在开始看到的是，政府在试图阻止经济衰退并稳定股市方面，有越来越多的政治意愿。所以当你看中国的时候，我认为很重要的一点是要意识到中国的运作方式与西方经济国家非常不同。最近我在一个播客中听到的一个解释是，在美国，资本主导政策，而在中国，政策主导资本。

Now, what does that mean? So in the US, if you are a big company, then you pay lobbyists, you make political donations and the political class shapes policy that is beneficial to you, maybe giving you permits, tax breaks, and so forth. So industry shapes policy in the US. But in China, the government official there decides, hey, this is our GDP target, this is what we're going to do. And every, all the businesses there then figure out how to make it happen over there. The political class has more power than businesses. And so it seems like the political class is deciding that, you know, stock market is too low, time to make it go up. So what are they doing? And is it going to work?

现在，那是什么意思呢？在美国，如果你是一个大公司，那么你会雇佣游说者，进行政治捐款，政治阶层会制定对你有利的政策，比如给予你许可证、减税等等。所以在美国，产业塑造了政策。但是在中国，政府官员决定了GDP目标，决定了我们要做什么。然后所有的企业都会想办法在那里实现。政治阶层比企业更有权势。因此，看起来政治阶层决定了股市太低，要开始上涨。他们在做些什么？这会奏效吗？

So the first thing that was announced earlier in the week is that they're going to basically buy stocks. So it sounds like they're going to take the offshore earnings of their state-owned enterprises. And there's a few hundred billion dollars worth and plow that into Chinese stocks. And of course, if you have a lot of money buying stocks, that puts upward pressure on the price.

本周早些时候宣布的第一件事是他们基本上要购买股票。听起来，他们将利用国有企业的海外收益，大约数千亿美元，将其投入中国股市。当然，如果大量的资金涌入股市，会对股价造成上涨压力。

So that's one thing. Now, the second thing they're doing, of course, is that they're doing what governments traditionally do when they don't like the stock price going down. They're going to strongly discourage people from short selling. Now, I recall during the European sovereign debt crisis, the European governments basically banned investors from short selling banks because the bank prices keep going lower. And it looks like the Chinese government is also beginning to encourage investors to not short sell stocks.

所以，第一件事情就是这样。现在，第二件他们正在做的事情，当然，是像政府通常在股价下跌时所做的那样。他们将强烈打压做空操作。我记得在欧洲主权债务危机期间，欧洲政府基本上禁止投资者做空银行股票，因为银行股价一直下跌。看起来中国政府也开始鼓励投资者不要做空股票了。

And it seems like the last thing that they're doing the past week is that they are having the central bank try to continue to ease monetary policy. So there's an announcement from the PBOC that they're going to cut the reserve ratio by 50 basis points. And traditionally, they cut about 25. So a 50 basis point cut is quite large. And there is speculation that in addition to that, going forward, the PBOC will also cut their interest rates.

看起来，过去一周他们做的最后一件事似乎是让央行继续放宽货币政策。中国人民银行宣布将降低准备金率50个基点，传统上他们只会降低25个基点。50个基点的削减是相当大的。同时，有人猜测中国人民银行未来还将降低利率。

Now, the way that the banking system in China works is that unlike the US, where we no longer have a reserve ratio, the reserve ratio is still a big part of how they conduct monetary policy. When you reduce the reserve ratio, banks have more capacity to make loans. So in theory, it could increase the amount of lending by commercial banks and thus the amount of cash available to the economy.

现在，中国的银行体系运作方式与美国不同。在美国，我们已经取消了准备金率的制度，而在中国，准备金率仍然在货币政策中扮演了重要角色。当准备金率降低时，银行有更多的能力发放贷款。因此，理论上来说，这可以增加商业银行的贷款规模，从而增加经济中可用的现金量。

Now, this is not the first time the Chinese stock market has not done well. And that authorities have tried to pop it up. This happened a few years ago as well. Now, historically speaking, these interventions, you know, they they work for a period of time and they improve sentiment, but sometimes it's not enough. So going forward, it's going to be really interesting to see whether or not these measures announced last week are finally going to put a bottom on the Chinese stock market. My sense is that even if it's not, the government seems to be very interested in stemming the declines. And so they were just announced other measures until they finally get what they want. Remember, in China, the government has a lot more levers to pull. And so I think that they could make it happen.

现在，这不是中国股市表现不佳的第一次了。当局在过去几年也曾试图刺激市场。历史上来看，这些干预措施在一段时间内确实能提振市场情绪，但有时仍不够。因此，未来将非常有趣地看到上周宣布的这些措施能否最终稳住中国股市。我的感觉是，即使无法做到，政府似乎也对遏制股市下跌非常感兴趣。因此，他们会一直宣布其他措施，直到达到他们的目标。请记住，在中国，政府可以操作的手段更多。所以我认为他们有能力实现这一目标。

Now, one other thing that I would like to mention is that this past week, there was a very interesting letter from a hedge fund manager who basically lost 20% this month and is closing his fund. Now, this person, this hedge fund manager, basically went long China and short Japan. He looked at the world through the lens of valuation metrics and thought that these two markets would converge and they did not. The Nikkei continued to go higher and the Chinese stocks continued to go lower. And so they so he lost a lot of money and wrote a very, I think a very candid and heartfelt letter explaining how why he's shutting down his fund. And if you make your living off the markets, I'm sure many of you can relate to that, that sometimes we just have traits that we think should work but don't work. But what really stood out to me is this line where he thinks, where he talks about how the world doesn't seem to work the way that he thought it did. And it seems like his experience is becoming a liability. Now, this really, I think it's really important to realize because in markets, relationships change. It's not like physics. We have different regimes. Now, in from my perspective, the great financial crisis was a big regime change. For example, after the great financial crisis, everyone was thinking that the Fed would quickly raise rates to about 4%, which is what rates were beforehand. They were thinking that quantitative easing would be very inflationary, which it wasn't. And so those guys who were thinking about the past got things wrong. Now, I think COVID was another regime change. And for example, when people were looking at interest rates going higher, they were thinking that, you know, we're going to have a housing implosion thinking about the past world, how the world used to work. But instead, housing was fine. Prices continue to go higher. Many people were thinking that we would have a banking crisis because that's what happened in 2008. And the banking sector, with exception, a few banks that you've never heard of going under is by and large fine. So we have these regime changes. And it's important to be able to recognize how things change. Otherwise, you know, our experience is going to be a liability.

现在，我想提一件事，就是在过去的一周里，有一封非常有趣的来自一位对冲基金经理的信，他在这个月亏损了20%，并且要关闭他的基金。这个对冲基金经理实际上在中国市场看多，日本市场看空。他通过估值指标看待世界，认为这两个市场会趋同，但事实并非如此。日经指数继续上涨，中国股票继续下挫。所以他亏了很多钱，并写了一封非常坦诚和真挚的信，解释他为什么要关闭基金。如果你靠市场谋生，我相信你们中的许多人都能理解，有时候我们有些交易策略认为应该有效，但实际上不起作用。但是，其中一句话真的让我印象深刻，他认为世界似乎不是他以为的那样运作。而且他的经验似乎正在变成一种负担。现在，我认为这一点非常重要，因为在市场中，关系会发生变化。它不像物理学那样稳定。我们有不同的体制。在我的观点中，大规模金融危机是一个重大的体制改变。例如，在大规模金融危机之后，每个人都认为美联储会迅速将利率提高到之前的4%，这也是之前的利率水平。他们认为量化宽松政策将导致通货膨胀，但事实并非如此。那些只考虑过去的人就会犯错。现在，我认为COVID-19也是另一个体制改变。例如，当人们预计利率会上升时，他们认为我们会出现房地产崩盘，这是根据过去世界运作的思维。但是事实上，房地产市场依然不错，价格继续上涨。许多人认为我们会面临银行危机，因为2008年就发生了这种情况。除了一些你从未听说过的银行倒闭之外，整个银行业基本上都很好。所以我们有这些体制改变。识别事物如何变化非常重要。否则，我们的经验将成为一种负担。

Okay, now let's talk about the second thing now. So the second thing was, of course, the huge, huge positive GDP data we got the past week.

好的，现在让我们来谈谈第二件事。所以第二件事当然是我们上周获得的巨大的、巨大的积极国内生产总值（GDP）数据。

Now heading into this print, of course, we've been talking about the Atlanta Fed. Now GDP now passed, that has been printing at, let's say, mid two's. Now, if you look at the commentary, I think many people were thinking that, you know, fourth quarter last year probably wasn't a good quarter for GDP, because GDP in third quarter was a bonkers 4.9%. I'm sure we have to give some of that back in the fourth quarter. After all, maybe people just put for their expenditures from the fourth quarter to the third quarter, goosing that number. Now, to my surprise, the GDP data, again, first cut, and it's going to be revised going forward was actually 3.3%, which was really, really strong. And I think even above what the Atlanta Fed now GDP was indicating. So I thought that was very surprising. So remember, for the US economy, trend growth is estimated to be about 1.8%. So we are comfortably growing above trend and have been for the for the 2023 as a whole. So that is positive.

现在进入这份报告中，当然我们一直在谈论亚特兰大联储。现在，GDP现在的数据已经公布，大概在低两位数。根据评论，我觉得许多人认为去年第四季度的GDP可能不是一个好的季度，因为第三季度的GDP高达惊人的4.9%。我确信我们在第四季度必须有所回落。毕竟，也许人们只是把他们的支出从第四季度转移到第三季度，提高了那个数字。然而，令我惊讶的是，GDP数据（初步数据，将来可能会修订）实际上是3.3%，非常强劲。我认为甚至超过了亚特兰大联储现在GDP的指标。所以我觉得这非常令人惊讶。要记住，美国经济的趋势增长被估计为约1.8%。所以我们的增长幅度远远超过趋势水平，并且在2023年整体上一直如此。这是积极的。

Now, the second thing that was also very positive is inflation. Now, this GDP period shows that core PCE over the fourth quarter of last year was 2%, which is bang on the Fed's target. It was also 2% in the third quarter as well. So all in all, you have to look at this past six months of data and conclude that, you know, self-landing is already here. It's all done. Now, remember, a couple years ago, Chair Powell was on TV telling you that inflation is too high. He wants to cause a recession. There's going to be some pain. And he was thinking that the way to get inflation under control was to cause a recession and thus bring down inflation.

现在，另一个也非常积极的事情是通货膨胀。这个GDP时期显示，去年第四季度核心个人消费支出物价指数达到了2%，与美联储的目标完全一致。第三季度的数据也是2%。所以总的来说，你必须看着过去六个月的数据得出结论，你知道，自动降落已经到了。都结束了。现在，记得几年前，鲍威尔主席在电视上告诉你通胀太高，他想引发一场衰退，会有一些痛苦。他认为，控制通胀的方法是引发一场衰退，从而降低通胀水平。

Now, the soft landing path, of course, was to get inflation down without causing a recession. And we've already had that happen. That's just, we have enough data about that, right? We have a whole year where we continue to grow above trend and inflation over the past six months, core PC already at 2%. So from my perspective, we got to close the chapter on that soft landing is already done. We got to look forward.

现在，当然，软着陆的路径就是在不引发经济衰退的情况下控制通货膨胀。而我们已经实现了这一目标。我们有足够的数据来证明这一点，对吧？我们有整整一年的数据，经济持续高于趋势增长，过去六个月的核心个人消费价格已经达到了2%。所以从我的角度来看，我们必须结束对软着陆的讨论，这已经完成了。我们需要展望未来。

Now, the forward, looking forward, I think the question is, again, does inflation come back? Which is my view? Or do we fall into recession as the view of, I guess, fewer and fewer people going forward? Now, we also have some interesting, I guess, more leading data that we came out last week. And that is the PMI indicators. So recall, PMI is a diffusion index. What that tells you is that Arthians getting better or worse compared to the last month. Now, these diffusion indexes have been misleading a lot of people over the past year, because they've been showing that things are getting worse. The direction of travel is lower. But I think what they fail to, no, I think what many people will point to this and think it's not doing well, fail to realize is that we were growing far above trend. For example, let's say that you're a car company and you're making, let's say, 100 cars a year, and you think that's a pretty normal year. Let's say one year, you suddenly have a huge surge in orders because your competitor will go into bankrupt. Then you're making 200 cars a year, hugely, hugely more than what you're used to. And then in the third year, a new competitor enters and then you start making 100 cars a year again. Now, compared to your baseline, things haven't really changed. You're still thinking 100 cars a year, and that's normal for you. But compared to last year, when you were making 200 cars, you're showing that things are not as good as it used to.

现在，展望未来，我认为问题又来了，通胀是否回归呢？这是我的观点。或者我们会陷入衰退，就像越来越少的人认为的那样？现在，我们也有一些有趣的，我猜都是较前向性的数据，上周我们公布了PMI指数。所以回想一下，PMI是一个扩散指数。这告诉你的是，与上个月相比，经济是在变好还是变差。过去一年里，这些扩散指数误导了很多人，因为它们显示情况在恶化。趋势向下。但我认为许多人没有意识到的是，我们的增长远远超过了趋势水平。例如，假设你是一家汽车公司，每年生产100辆汽车，并且认为这是一个相当正常的年份。然后有一年，由于你的竞争对手破产了，你突然订单激增，年产量增长到了200辆，远远超过你的惯常水平。然后在第三年，一家新竞争对手进入市场，你的年产量又恢复到100辆。现在，与你的基准相比，情况并没有真正改变。你仍然认为每年生产100辆汽车是正常的。但与去年生产200辆时相比，你显示的情况并不如以前那么好。

And so I think that's what's been happening with the PMI data over the past year, where PMI data has been showing things are not as good as it was the last month. But that's because you are merely normalizing. And so now that we've normalized, it looks like the recent PMI data is showing that things are actually picking up again. So PMI data from the S&P shows that services above 50 and manufacturing above 50 as well, that is to say, businesses are saying that the more recent month is better than the last month. So it seems like we are again heading towards, so we've normalized back to trend. And now it seems like we're going up again. So that's, I think, a positive indicator for the economy going forward and recall we still have a lot of momentum.

所以我认为过去一年来，采购经理人指数（PMI）数据所显示的情况就是这样，PMI数据显示事情并不像上个月那样好。但这只是因为你在进行归一化处理。现在我们已经归一化了，最新的PMI数据表明事情实际上正在再次好转。标准普尔公司的PMI数据显示，服务业超过50，制造业也超过50，也就是说，企业表示最近一个月比上个月好。所以看起来我们又回到了趋势之中。现在看起来我们又要上升了。所以我认为这对于未来经济来说是一个积极的指标，而且需要注意的是我们仍然具有很大的势头。

Now, the second thing that I will note is, as we all know, the U.S. economy is largely based on consumer spending. Now, wages have been growing, say, four or five percent, higher than they were pre-2020, but inflation has also been coming down. So real incomes have been growing, and we can see that in the data as well. Now, as people continue to have higher wage growing gains and inflation seem, inflation moderates, they're going to have more purchasing power and they're going to be able to spend more. And we see that in the data as well. So again, I think these are tailwinds. And I think that there is, I think that U.S. economy continues to do well throughout the year. And as we have financial assets continue to inflate, you know, that's more purchasing power as well. So all in all, like I said, like we've been talking about for the past few months, soft-learning was becoming more and more reality. Now, it's, all said and done. It's done. Let's move on. And moving on, I think things still look pretty good.

现在，我要注意的第二件事是，正如我们所知道的，美国经济在很大程度上依赖消费支出。现在，工资一直在增长，比2020年前高出四到五个百分点，但通胀也在下降。因此，实际收入一直在增长，我们在数据中也能看到这一点。现在，随着人们继续获得更高的工资增长和通胀趋缓，他们将拥有更多的购买力，能够消费更多。我们在数据中也能看到这一点。所以，我认为这些都是有利条件。我认为美国经济在全年都将表现良好。随着金融资产不断膨胀，这也意味着更多的购买力。总而言之，正如我所说，就像我们过去几个月一直在谈论的那样，软着陆正在变得越来越真实。现在，这一切都结束了。让我们继续前进。而且，继续前进，我认为情况仍然看起来相当不错。

Okay. And the last thing I want to talk about is previewing this really, really big week. First, of course, we have the Fed. Now, going into this meeting, let's just look about look at the expectations. So right now, the expectations for this year is that the Fed is going to cut, let's say five to six times, where that's very aggressive in the Fed in their most recent dot plot themselves only penciled in three cuts this year. So I think what the market will want to see is how Chair Powell handles the discrepancy between what the market is pricing and what the Fed has indicated. Now, in my most recent work, I have suggested that the Chair Powell will not push back against any of this, I guess, aggressive easing priced into the market. Now, the second thing that we want to focus on is how Chair Powell will handle the ongoing discussion of when to taper quantitative tightening. In another piece that I wrote, I talked about the ongoing debate within the Fed as to what the Fed should do with quantitative tightening. Right now, we have three perspectives as to when to taper. Now, Chair Powell, I think, is going to give us more clues as to where he is sitting on this debate. And that could inform us when we think about the supply and demand of Treasury securities going forward. And earlier taper would be more bullish because that suggests that the Fed is going to potentially even stop QT earlier than expected. And that's fewer treasuries that the private sector has to digest.

好的。我想谈谈的最后一件事是预览这个非常非常重要的一周。首先，当然，我们有美联储。现在，让我们来看一下市场对此次会议的预期。目前，今年市场对于美联储的预期是，他们将进行5到6次降息，这在美联储最近的点阵图上只标注了今年三次降息，可以说是非常激进的。我认为市场希望看到的是鲍威尔主席如何处理市场定价与美联储的指示之间的差异。在我最近的工作中，我建议鲍威尔主席不会反对市场上定价的任何激进的宽松政策。我们所关注的第二个问题是鲍威尔主席将如何处理有关何时削减定量紧缩的持续讨论。在我写的另一篇文章中，我谈到了美联储内部对于何时削减定量紧缩政策的辩论。目前，我们有三种观点关于何时削减。我认为，鲍威尔主席将会给我们更多关于他在这个辩论中的立场的线索。这将有助于我们对未来国债供求情况的判断。较早的削减将更有利，因为这意味着美联储可能会提前停止QT政策，这就意味着私人部门需要吸收的国债数量更少。

Now, the second big thing is that what's happening with the Treasury. This week, the Treasury is going to have their quarterly refunding announcement. And over the past two QRA's, this has been a market moving event. In August, after the QRA, the tenure yield sewed off a lot. That is because the QRA suggested a much larger increase in supply of treasuries than the market had anticipated. In November, after the QRA, the tenure yield declined a lot. Why? Because the Treasury was announcing that they're going to increase issuance less than expected, and they're going to continue to increase the share of bills that they're issuing. So this QRA, I think, was also going to be market moving. And I will write about it in my blog this week, what I think is likely going to happen. And I think this is going to particularly interesting because there's an opportunity here for Treasury to take some control of monetary policy away from the Fed.

现在，第二大事情是财政部正在发生的事情。本周，财政部将发布他们的季度退款公告。在过去的两个季度退款公告中，这都是一个会影响市场的事件。在8月份，季度退款公告后，十年期国债收益率大幅下降。这是因为季度退款公告表明国债供应量的增加要比市场预期的多得多。在11月份，季度退款公告后，十年期国债收益率大幅下降。为什么呢？因为财政部宣布他们将增加的发行量比预期要少，并且他们将继续增加国库券的比例。因此，我认为这个季度退款公告也将对市场产生影响。本周我将在我的博客中写下我认为可能会发生的事情。我认为这将特别有趣，因为这里有一个机会让财政部从美联储手中获得一些货币政策的控制权。

Okay, so those are two big events, which in of itself would have been really big for a week, but we also have two other events happening. We have, of course, big tech earnings from Google, from META, from Apple, and basically a lot of the Mac 7 that we know have been a big driver of the market rally and way heavily in the major indices are going to report their earnings.

好的，所以这是两个重大事件，单单这两个事件已经足够让一周非常重要，但我们还有另外两个事件正在发生。当然，我们有来自谷歌、Meta和苹果的大型科技公司收益报告，基本上我们知道的“Mac 7”这些公司一直是市场反弹的重要推动因素，会对主要指数的走势产生重大影响。

Now Tesla, last week, in report of their earnings, and they were down a lot on Friday. Now, so it's looking like earnings now, you know, have been listening very violent reactions from the market. So if we have positive earnings from these big tech sectors, we can continue, I think we can continue to see the major indexes continue to power higher simply because big tech is such a big component in them. And conversely, if they disappoint like Tesla, then we could have a lot of volatility.

现在，特斯拉在上周的收益报告中显示他们的业绩下滑，导致周五股价大幅下跌。所以现在看来，市场对收益报告的反应非常激烈。如果这些科技巨头的收益报告是正面的，我认为我们可以继续看到主要指数持续上涨，因为科技巨头在其中占据了很大比例。相反地，如果像特斯拉这样的公司让人失望，那么可能会出现很多波动。

And I have new view on these individual stock earnings. I don't follow them. But I think that there's potential for large volatility here. And of course, the last major event next week is the nonform payroll report. People are going to be continuing to follow NFP for clues as to whether or not we have persistent labor market strength, or maybe we have labor market weakness. And of course, we're whether wage growth will moderate.

对于这些个股收益，我有了新的看法。虽然我不追踪它们，但我认为这里存在巨大的波动潜力。当然，下周的最后一个重要事件是非农就业报告。人们将继续追踪非农就业数据，以确定劳动力市场是否持久强劲，或者可能存在劳动力市场疲软。当然，我们也在关注工资增长是否会趋于平缓。

Now, as we all know, what happens in the labor market is going to have a big impact on monetary policy. As inflation has moderated towards the Fed's target, the Fed is going to be also focused on employment, their other mandates. Now weakness in the nonform payrolls will argue for a more dovish approach towards monetary policy, and maybe more rate cuts and more rate cuts and maybe sooner than expected on in the event, maybe weak nonform payroll spread.

现在，正如我们所知道的，劳动市场的情况将对货币政策产生重大影响。随着通胀逐渐接近美联储的目标，美联储也将关注就业，他们的另一个职责。现在，非农就业数据的疲软将对货币政策采取更加温和的态度进行论证，可能会有更多的降息和更多的降息，而且可能会比预期的更早，在情况发生时，也许是非农人员的增长疲软。

So next week is going to be a very, very exciting week. And as usual, I will be back after the FOMC meeting to give you guys my debrief as to what I think happened. Okay, so that's all I prepared for today. Hope that was helpful. And as usual, check me out at my blog, fedguy.com. And if you're interested in learning more about how markets function, check out my courses at centralbanking101.com. Talk to you all soon.

下周将是一个非常非常激动人心的一周。和往常一样，在FOMC会议后，我会回来给大家讲述我对所发生的事情的看法。好的，今天我准备的就是这些。希望对你们有帮助。和往常一样，可以在我的博客fedguy.com上找到我。如果你对了解市场运作更多感兴趣，可以去centralbanking101.com参加我的课程。很快再和大家交流。