Tesla Just Announced Record Deliveries in Q4 2023

Hey everybody Rob Mount, we're here. Happy New Year. Today we are going to be talking about Tesla's Q4 delivery and production report.

大家好，我是罗布·蒙特，我们来了。新年快乐！今天我们要谈一谈特斯拉的第四季度交付与生产报告。

Tesla has just released the numbers and we are seeing a record number for Tesla. 484,500 deliveries, almost 495,000 vehicles produced.

特斯拉刚刚公布了最新数据，我们看到了特斯拉的纪录数字。总交付量达到了48.45万辆车，几乎生产了49.5万辆车。

Tesla says that this was split between 476,777 Model 3 and Model Y, 18,212 Model Sx and now Cybertruck. Usually this line will just be Sx. Tesla now lumping Cybertruck in on that line.

特斯拉表示，这部分销售额中有476777辆Model 3和Model Y，18212辆Model Sx，以及现在的Cybertruck。通常这一行只是Model Sx。而现在特斯拉将Cybertruck也包含在这个统计数据中。

For deliveries, 461,500 Model 3 and Y, almost 23,000 deliveries for other models. So actually a really nice bounce back on this line, the other model line from last quarter. If we look at that quarter, we had just about 13,500 Sx produced just under 16,000 deliveries. So a big sequential increase in those other models. Obviously these are the more expensive models. So that should help out revenue and earnings a little bit as well.

在交付方面，我们交付了461,500辆Model 3和Y以及近23,000辆其他型号的车辆。所以，从上个季度看，其他车型的销售线在实际上有了相当大的反弹。如果我们看一下那个季度，我们生产了大约13,500辆Sx，并交付了不到16,000辆车。所以，其他车型的销售量出现了大幅度的连续增长。很显然，这些是更加昂贵的车型。因此，这有助于提高收入和利润。

So we can see for the year, Tesla produced almost 8, almost 1.85 million vehicles, deliveries of almost 1.81 million vehicles just above the guidance that Tesla established early this year. So nice to see that.

因此，从整年来看，特斯拉生产了近8万辆汽车，交付了将近181万辆汽车，略高于特斯拉今年早期设定的目标。看到这个结果真是太好了。

In terms of the earnings report, Tesla says that this will be reported on Wednesday, January 24th. And they'll have a conference call at 430 Central time 530 Eastern time that day, of course, as well.

关于收益报告，特斯拉表示将于1月24日星期三公布。当天他们将在中央时间下午4点30分、东部时间下午5点30分举行电话会议，当然还会有这个会议。

So compared to consensus, this was just above consensus about 1% higher on the delivery mark. consensus was 480,000 or 500 just about that around there. So nice to see that it looks like the stock is reacting at least right now positively in pre market trading earlier, we were down maybe half a percent to 1%. You can see NASDAQ futures right there are down a little bit today as well. So it looks like the market is reacting relatively positively so far.

相比于共识，该交付结果稍微高于共识，大约比共识高了1%左右。共识是480,000或者稍微多一点，差不多在那个范围内。很高兴看到现在股票在盘前交易中至少表现出积极的反应，之前我们可能下跌了半个百分点到1%。你可以看到纳斯达克期货也稍微下跌了一点。所以目前看来市场反应还算相对积极。

Nice to see the numbers come in a little bit above consensus. Nice to see Tesla achieve their initial guidance for the year, despite of course, challenges throughout the year interest rates, all this stuff that we've talked about throughout the year, Tesla nonetheless, still exceeding consensus.

很高兴看到数字略高于共识预期。很高兴看到特斯拉实现了他们今年的初步指导，尽管当然在整年的挑战中面临了利率等各种问题，而且我们在整年内一直谈到了这些问题，但特斯拉仍然超出了共识预期。

Now one thing else hoping to see a little bit with this was I didn't really expect it but kind of hoped that Tesla would break out the Cybertruck. But since they are lumping it in with other models here, unfortunately, we're not going to be able to, you know, see as clearly, as specifically the Cybertruck ramp as it progresses, we're just going to have to kind of back that out of what we might expect from SNX otherwise. But as we have seen over the last couple of quarters again, that has been a little bit volatile. So it makes it a little bit trickier to exactly know what's going on there with the with the Cybertruck.

现在还有一件事，希望在这方面能看到一些东西，我并不是真的期望它，但希望特斯拉能推出Cybertruck。但由于他们将它与其他车型放在一起，不幸的是，我们将无法清楚地看到Cybertruck的推出情况。我们只能从其他车型的表现中推测出Cybertruck的情况。但正如我们在过去几个季度中所看到的，情况一直有些波动。所以这使得我们难以准确知道Cybertruck的局势如何。

In terms of production, this definitely a little bit lower than what I expected. My forecast was somewhere around 509,000. So it looks like there was at least to me either lower production at Gigabir land or gigataxis, or maybe some downtime at Fremont, we do expect model three Highland updates here at some point, likely in this quarter. Remember initially the motor trend review article of the Highland had said that January was the expected release for the Highland and then they had corrected it and said that Tesla told them to update that to sometime in Q one. So it's possible that we did actually see a little bit of downtime for the Highland model three in Fremont this quarter, which would have definitely impacted the production side for the three in the Y, which was the majority, you know, more than the majority of the forecasting this on my end. So hopefully that leads to a quicker refresh for the for the Highland obviously we'll keep close eye on that. But in terms of the other models and certainly gigashang high, we'll see the production number for gigashang high here and about a week or so. And that'll give us a little bit of a better feel for again, those other factories and Fremont as well.

在生产方面，这明显低于我预期的水平。我预测大约在509,000左右。所以看起来在Gigabir land或gigataxis可能生产减少了，或者弗里蒙特厂在某些时间停工了一段时间。我们确实预计在本季度内会对Model 3高地进行更新。请记住，最初的《Motor Trend》评论文章提到，高地车型的预计发布日期是一月份，然后他们进行了更正，说特斯拉告诉他们将其更新为在第一季度的某个时间。所以有可能我们在弗里蒙特工厂在本季度确实看到了一些对高地车型的生产停工，这肯定会对三号和Y型车型的生产产生影响，而这两款车型在我的预测中占据了绝大多数。所以希望这能带来对高地车型更快的更新，我们当然会密切关注这个情况。但是在其他车型和肯定还有Gigashang高地车上，我们将在大约一周左右时间内看到Gigashang高地车的生产数量，这将使我们能更好地了解其他工厂以及弗里蒙特厂的情况。

Right, so let's flip over and take a look at this in Excel real quick.

好的，那么让我们快速地在Excel中翻转过来，看一下这个。

So I have updated this with the production number of 494,800, 989 rather. So you can see 3% below what my production forecast was. I didn't give a delivery estimate specifically, but you know, right in the range of kind of expectations, I think, and coming in a little bit above consensus.

所以我已经更新为生产数量为49.48万，989个。所以你可以看到，比起我的生产预测要低3%。我没有具体给出交货估计，但你知道的，在期望的范围内，我想，并且略微超过共识。

So I'll get deliveries in a second. Again, we should get Shanghai deliveries or rather production here in about a week or so, that'll allow us to get a better feel for Berlin and Texas and Fremont. My forecast here were 10,000 higher across Berlin and Texas. So I've taken those down a little bit and then taken Fremont down as well.

所以我会在一秒钟内收到货物。再说一次，我们应该在大约一周左右在上海收到货物，这将让我们对柏林、德克萨斯和弗里蒙特有更好的了解。我之前的预测是在柏林和德克萨斯多出了10,000个单位。所以我将它们减少了一些，还有弗里蒙特也减少了。

Fremont I lowered even though we did see again, SNX and cyber truck production now, we'll have to break out this a little bit differently in the future production reports. But I had about 12,500 in here for SNX production for cyber truck. Maybe we see a few hundred other for cyber truck, but it's not going to be a huge factor of course, of course, yet. So those coming in maybe 6,000, 5,000 or so higher than my expectations, which means that three and why somewhere else came in a little bit lower, so likely from Fremont as well there.

弗里蒙特，在我们再次见面时，我降低了期望值，SNX和Cybertruck正在进行生产。在未来的生产报告中，我们将不得不对此进行一些调整。但是我在这里的SNX生产量大约为12,500辆，Cybertruck可能还会有几百辆，但当然不会是一个巨大的因素，当然，还没有。所以，这意味着进来的车辆可能比我预期的多出大约6,000至5,000辆，这也意味着其他地方的产量略有下降，很可能也来自弗里蒙特工厂。

So production, you can see up 15% quarter over quarter, up 13% year over year for the fourth quarter. And then if we do hop over to deliveries and take a look at kind of how this fits into the year, as well as for inventory, you can see I've got the 484,500 vehicles delivered in there. Again, 1.1.81 million for the year. Q4 then was up 11% quarter over quarter, 20% year over year. And this puts the total year up 38%. As we can see the consensus, that was 1% below the actuals that we end up seeing here. The consensus for 2024 is 2.167 million. So I'm going to just do the quick math on that since I had this but had forgotten it, it is 542,000 per quarter.

生产方面，你可以看到季度同比增长15%，同比去年第四季度增长13%。然后，如果我们来看交付情况，以及库存情况，你可以看到我在这里提到了48.45万辆车辆的交付量。再次强调，全年创下了110.81万辆。第四季度同比增长11%，同比去年增长20%。这使得全年同比增长了38%。我们可以看到，这一共识相对于实际情况低了1%。2024年的共识预估为216.7万。所以让我做一下简单的计算，因为我这里有这个数据但是忘记了，每个季度约为54.2万辆。

So that's actually a decent size step up from where Tesla is at right now. Obviously, we're going to have a cyber truck contribute to that. And of course, we're going to have, you know, if there was any downtime this quarter relating to Highland, hopefully that can come out and help boost the quarterly production numbers as well. And then for Fremont, or sorry, for Berlin and Texas, it does appear that both of those factories, again, we'll get a little bit more clarity when we have the Shanghai number, but it does appear that both of those factories right now are a little bit below capacity to where they could be. So if those can continue to ramp up further in 2024, that'll put this number, you know, in a more attainable position, a quarter over quarter.

那实际上是从特斯拉目前的水平上来看一个相当大的进步。显然，我们将有一个Cybertruck为此做出贡献。当然，如果本季度与Highland相关的任何停工时间能够消除，希望能帮助提升季度生产数量。然后针对柏林和德克萨斯，目前看来这两个工厂都略微低于其可能水平。因此，如果2024年能够进一步提高这两个工厂的产能，这将使这个数字在每个季度中更加可实现的位置上。

This year though, 2024, it's going to be about the ramp of the cyber truck, it's going to be about, you know, cost efficiencies in Tesla's factories, and working towards the next generation of vehicles, right with the cyber truck. And of course, the, you know, not model to you whatever ends up being so very happy with the delivery number here. Again, a little bit disappointing, relative to my forecast, at least on production. But hopefully we'll be able to determine a little bit more what caused that. And if there is something related to Fremont with Highland, then certainly that would change, you know, my reaction or how I feel about the production number here. So, take a look at the comments, see what people are thinking. But overall, looks like a pretty good report for Tesla here.

今年，2024年，主要将集中在塔斯拉的电动卡车上的加速推进，以及在特斯拉工厂中降低成本效率，并致力于下一代车辆的研发，其中包括电动卡车。当然，对于交付数量，我对于任何型号是否满意还不确定，可能会让我对产量感到有点失望，至少相对于我的预测来说。但希望我们能够更深入地了解是什么原因导致这种情况。如果这与弗里蒙特和海兰有关，那么肯定会改变我的反应或对产量感受的态度。因此，请浏览评论，了解人们的想法。总体来说，特斯拉的报告看起来相当不错。

Let's talk about inventory actually real quick. So as you can see days of inventory, this is just calculated based off of the previous quarters inventory that Tesla reports in their earnings report. So they give that in terms of days of inventory, we can roughly turn that into about 93,000 vehicles, not a lot of significant digits there for us to work from, but it gets us to you about there. And then this quarter, we're seeing of course 10,500 vehicles or so, more produced than delivered, which will increase that to a little over 103,000 vehicles in inventory. But if you run that same days of inventory calculation, we're going to be right around 16 days again. That calculation is based off of the quarterly delivery number. So as that quarterly delivery number increases, that increases what one day of inventory is going to be, which leaves us right around that same 16 days of inventory level, which as you can see has pretty much been the inventory level throughout the entire year, the last three quarters at 16 days, Q1 at 15 days.

让我们简单讨论一下库存。所以你可以看到，库存天数是根据特斯拉在财报中报告的上个季度的库存计算出来的。他们按照库存天数来提供这个数据，我们可以大约算出大约有93000辆车，不是很多有效数字给我们参考，但是我们可以大致知道数量。而在这个季度，我们看到生产的车辆大约比交付的多10500辆，这将使库存增加到略多于103000辆。但如果我们按照同样的库存天数计算，我们大约又回到了16天左右。这个计算是基于季度交付数量的。所以随着季度交付数量的增加，一天的库存增加，这使得我们的库存天数保持在同样的水平，你可以看到整个年度的库存水平几乎都保持在16天，一季度是15天。

So I think it's a positive to see that holding study. As we approached the end of the year, we didn't really see too many additional discounts from Tesla. We've got used vehicle prices that were reduced throughout the quarter, or sorry, new inventory vehicles that had been reduced in terms of the discount offered from Tesla towards the end of the quarter. But we didn't really see any major promotions happening, some free supercharging here and there and things like that, but nothing too crazy from Tesla to end the quarter. So hopefully that means that with this record production and delivery report, we should see better cost amortization across those deliveries. Hopefully that means pretty good things for margin if Tesla wasn't doing a ton of discounting or special promotions towards the end of the quarter.

所以，我认为参加这项研究是一个积极的事情。随着年末的临近，我们并没有看到特斯拉提供太多额外的折扣。在本季度中，我们看到二手车的价格降低了，或者说特斯拉对新车库存车提供的折扣也有所减少。但我们并没有看到任何重大促销活动，只有一些零散的免费超级充电等活动，但特斯拉在季末并没有进行什么太疯狂的促销。希望这意味着随着这份创纪录的产销报告，我们将会看到交付的成本分摊更好。希望这对于利润率来说是个不错的事情，如果特斯拉在季末没有进行大量的折扣或特殊促销活动的话。

So of course, ahead of the delivery report on the 24th, or sorry, of the earnings report on the 24th, we'll go through expectations for margins and revenue and things like that with this number. But as you can see here, relative to Tesla's history, this is about 20,000 vehicles more than the previous record. So again, hopefully that helps with some of those things in the earnings report, and certainly Tesla's strongest production quarter so far also about 15,000 vehicles ahead of the previous record from Q2.

所以，在24日的收益报告之前，我们将对利润率、收入等方面的预期进行审查。但正如您在这里可以看到的，与特斯拉的历史相比，这比之前的记录多出大约20,000辆车。所以，希望这对收益报告中的某些事项有所帮助，而且这也是特斯拉迄今为止最强的生产季度，比第二季度的先前记录多出约15,000辆车。

All right, so let's take a look again at the stock. Let me flip back over to the browser and the recovery from premarket earlier premarket continues. Tesla now up about 1%. So again, happy to see a nice reaction here. If nothing else hanging around the levels that we've been at, that's that's nice considering if we all remember last year around this time, I guess it was a little bit before year end that the big drop to the $100 share price range had happened. So nice to see us starting off this year in a stronger position, and hopefully beginning the day or beginning the year here with a nice day for Tesla following this report.

好的，让我们再来看看股票。让我切换回浏览器，之前市前市场的复苏仍在继续。特斯拉目前上涨约1%。所以，在这里看到一个不错的反应真是令人高兴。如果不考虑其他，我们仍在维持原来的水平，考虑到去年大约在这个时间，也就是年末前一段时间，特斯拉股价跌到了100美元附近，这种情况真是不错。很高兴看到我们今年以一个更强势的位置开始，希望特斯拉在本次报告后能有一个美好的一天，也为今年新的开始打下良好基础。

All right, so let's see. Just going to take a quick look at the comments. I think we mostly mostly covered things here.

好的，那么我们来看看。我只是快速浏览一下评论。我认为我们在这里基本上都涵盖了大部分内容。

So there is no, let's just double check here, but there is no guidance or anything for for 2024 here. You know, Tesla just sang grew deliveries 38% group production 35%. Thank you to all customers, employers, suppliers, shareholders, and supporters who helped us achieve a great 2023. And then of course we get the earnings date.

所以我们这里没有任何指引或其他关于2024年的内容，请再核实一下。你知道，特斯拉在2023年交付量增长了38%，推出生产量也增长了35%。感谢所有的客户、雇员、供应商、股东和支持者们帮助我们取得了辉煌的2023年。当然，接下来我们会发布盈利日期。

But yeah, no, no delivery guidance, not that I would have expected that here. It'll be interesting to see what Tesla says for the 2024 guidance, presumably we'll get that with the earnings report. I don't know that Tesla's going to give us a super specific number. Maybe they say something like more than 2 million or, you know, something in that range, but it'll be interesting to see what Tesla guides for as well.

是的，没有交付指导，不过我也没指望会有。看看特斯拉在2024年的指引会说些什么将会很有意思，我想他们会在财报中公布。我不知道特斯拉会不会给出一个非常具体的数字，也许他们会说超过200万或者在那个范围内的数字，不过看看特斯拉的指引会是什么样子也挺有意思的。

With the production number being a little bit lower, again, we don't have the analyst consensus production, but I assume this is a little bit lower than people would have thought on some of the production figures that we looked at, you know, Piper Sandler was even a little bit higher than my forecast in terms of production, I believe.

由于生产数量稍微下降，我们没有分析师共识生产数量，但我认为这比人们对我们分析的一些生产数据预期的要低一些，你知道，Piper Sandler在生产方面甚至比我预测的要高一些，我相信。

So with this being a little bit lower again, depends on the reason. But if this is because of Berlin and Texas and maybe Tesla keeping those production levels a little bit lower, then we could see even though the delivery beat here, if production's lower than expect, than expected, maybe we see this delivery consensus for the next year come down. But of course, that'll depend a lot on what Tesla says as well.

所以，如果这个原因是因为柏林、德克萨斯和特斯拉将产量保持在较低水平，尽管交付量超过预期，我们可能会看到产量低于预期，导致下一年的交付共识下调。但当然，这也将很大程度上取决于特斯拉的表态。

All right, let's see. I'm just going to again take a quick look at any comments. Somebody asked, what is my guidance for 2024? I wouldn't have guidance. I would have a forecast. I'm sure that's the question.

好的，让我看看。我只是再次快速浏览一下任何评论。有人问，对于2024年我有什么指导？我不会有指导，而是会有一个预测。我确定这就是问题。

I'm going to, you know, put this into my model. I haven't updated that with these numbers yet. Again, production was a little bit lower than I expected here. So hopefully we can try to figure out what that reason is the hopefully hopeful transition to highland from Fremont. We'll give us our best clue at that along with the Shanghai numbers when we get those as well.

我打算把这个数据输入到我的模型中。我还没有用这些数字来更新它。再次，生产量比我预期的要低一些。所以，希望我们能尽力找出原因，希望从弗里蒙特转移到高地能给我们提供最好的线索，当我们得到上海的数据时也是如此。

So of course, you know, when we do get a little bit more information, we'll go through some more longer term forecasts.

当然，你知道，当我们获得更多的信息时，我们会进行更多的长期预测。

All right, just going to see if there's any quick questions. But again, I think that mostly wraps it up. So yeah, in general, I think to kind of sum things up, a pretty nice delivery number here 1% above consensus expectations, as we can see about 4,000 vehicles above.

好的，我只是要看看是否有任何快速的问题。但再说一遍，我认为基本上都已经结束了。所以，总的来说，我认为可以概括一下，交付数量还不错，比共识预期高出了1%，大约比预期多了4,000辆车。

And as we go into the Q4 delivery, sorry, the Q4 earnings reports in a few weeks, again, this is going to be a record for Tesla, which hopefully yields record, certainly at least revenue. We've also had nice energy numbers to look forward to Tesla at one point had mentioned, maybe they would start including energy in this delivery report. We're not seeing that yet. Maybe that'll change in 2024.

在几周后的Q4财报中，很抱歉，我要再次提到这对特斯拉来说将是一个创纪录的季度，希望能带来创纪录的收入，至少是创纪录的收入。我们还期待着特斯拉令人满意的能源数字。特斯拉曾经提到可能会在本次交付报告中包括能源，但目前还没有看到。或许这种情况会在2024年改变。

But a lot to be excited about with energy. Hopefully we see a record there as well, which could mean pretty good things on the revenue line. So you know, where we go from here, we'll look for continued progress for Berlin and Texas, if not on actual raw production numbers, at least on cost. And then also continue to see the cyber truck ramp and start to contribute more meaningfully to these numbers in the quarters in 2024.

但在能源方面还有很多令人兴奋的事情。希望我们在那方面也能创下纪录，这可能对收入产生不错的影响。所以，你知道，我们将继续关注柏林和德克萨斯在实际生产数量上的持续进展，至少在成本方面也需如此。此外，我们还将继续观察赛博卡车的生产扩张，并在2024年的季度中对这些数字做出更有意义的贡献。

All right, that'll wrap it up for today. So as always, thank you for listening. Make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications. You can also find me on X at Tesla podcast. And we'll see you tomorrow for the Wednesday, January 3 episode of Tesla daily. We'll see you as then. Thank you.

好的，今天的节目就到这里了。一如既往地，感谢你们的聆听。请确保已经订阅并开启了通知。你也可以在X平台上找到我，搜索Tesla podcast。明天我们会再见，在1月3日星期三的节目里。谢谢大家。