FSD Beta’s “Final Piece”, Powerwall Install Speed, Tesla India Lease

Hey everybody Rob Manward here and today we are going to be talking about some new comments from Elon Musk on FSD beta. We've also got an interesting demonstration from Tesla on Powerwall installation, some news on Tesla in India and a couple other items as well.

大家好，我是Rob Manward。今天我们将讨论一下埃隆·马斯克关于FSD测试版的一些新的评论。此外，特斯拉还进行了一个有趣的Powerwall安装演示，关于特斯拉在印度的一些消息，还有其他几个话题。

Looking at the stock, rough day for the markets, Tesla down 2.67% closing at $254.11 while the NASDAQ was down about 2.2% on the day. Not too bad of an underperformance from Tesla given the beta, obviously a tougher day in the markets today, probably largely stemming from the downgrade from the FSD beta from the United States long term debt rating to AIA plus from AAA.

看着股市的表现，市场经历了艰难的一天，特斯拉股价下跌2.67%，收盘价为254.11美元，而纳斯达克指数当天下跌约2.2%。特斯拉的表现并不算太差，考虑到其所具有的波动性，今天市场的情况更加艰难，很可能主要原因是美国长期债务评级被下调为AIA plus（较原来的AAA评级）造成的影响。

So they still have a stable outlook on this debt, but interesting to see this downgrade, they say that this reflects the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing general government debt burden and the erosion of governance relative to AAA to AAA rated peers over the last two decades that has manifested in repeated debt limit standoffs and last minute resolutions. So of course we had the debt ceiling drama happen recently, it's interesting that this downgrade has happened, I think it's hard to argue with at least this summary point here, but a little bit beyond the scope of what we're talking about here for Tesla daily, but interesting nonetheless.

所以他们仍对这笔债务持有稳定的展望，但这次降级很有意思，他们说这反映了未来三年预期的财政恶化，高且不断增长的政府总债务负担，以及过去二十年中与AAA级别同行相比，治理能力的减弱，这已经体现在了一次次的债务限额僵局和最后一刻的解决方案上。所以当然我们最近发生了债务上限闹剧，降级的发生很有意思，我认为至少这个总结论点是难以反驳的，但它略超出了我们这里讨论的特斯拉日报的范围，但还是很有意思。

And then we did also have a jobs report number today that came in a lot higher than expected. So that may have influenced a little bit of the reaction in the stock market today as of course higher job growth might lead to a little bit more leeway for increased interest rates from the Fed as we head into the next meeting. Of course, it'll be a while in September.

今天我们还发布了一个工作报告数字，比预期高得多。因此，这可能在股市的反应上产生了一些影响。当然，更高的就业增长可能会导致联邦储备系统在下次会议上有更多的加息余地。当然，这将是在九月以后的一段时间。

So still plenty of economic reporting to come out before then, but that could probably, you know, lead the market to believe that there's a little bit more flexibility for further increases or crates from the Fed.

在那之前仍有许多经济报告将会发布，但这可能会使市场相信美联储在进一步加息或降息方面有一些灵活性。

All right, so getting into the Tesla news, probably the most interesting comment today coming from Elon Musk on the progress for FSD. So they've talked about, you know, integrating neural networks into the planning portion of FSD of FSD beta. Elon commenting a little bit on that today saying that quote, vehicle control is the final piece of the Tesla FSD AI puzzle that will drop greater than 300,000 lines of C plus plus control code by about two orders of magnitude. It is training as I write this, our progress is currently training compute constrained, not engineering constrained end quote.

好的，现在讨论特斯拉的新闻，也许今天最令人感兴趣的评论来自于埃隆·马斯克关于全自动驾驶（FSD）的进展。他们谈到了将神经网络集成到FSD测试版的规划部分中。今天，埃隆就这个问题发表了一点评论，他说：“车辆控制是特斯拉 FSD AI 拼图中的最后一块，通过减少约两个数量级的 C++ 控制代码超过30万行。他正在训练中，我们的进展目前受限于计算资源，而不是工程资源。”

So a little bit more context on what Elon has mentioned before of kind of end to end neural networks or end to end AI, which, you know, we've talked quite a bit about. And hopefully this is what would comprise FSD beta version 12, which Elon has said that he has now tested the alpha version of. So obviously they've got, you know, a long way to go from where they're at today with this 300,000 lines of C plus plus code into neural network coding. But hopefully that can happen relatively quickly. And because they do have that alpha version out out already to Elon, that does seem to be happening at least to an extent already.

稍微多介绍一下埃隆之前提到的端到端神经网络或端到端人工智能的背景，我们已经谈论过这个问题。希望这将成为全自动驾驶(FSD)测试版12所包含的内容，埃隆表示他已经测试过了alpha版本。显然，他们离今天的这300,000行C++代码转换成神经网络代码还有很长的路要走。但希望这能相对快速地实现，因为他们已经提供了alpha版本给埃隆测试，看起来至少在某种程度上已经实现了。

And on the training piece of it, of course, as we have talked about, Tesla's training capabilities are about to expand very, very dramatically as you know, July marked the start of dojo production as we have previously talked about over the next quarter, we should see Tesla's training compute power increase by, you know, probably three fold. And then in the next six months from there, probably 10 fold roughly from where we're at right now.

就培训部分而言，当然，正如我们之前谈论的那样，特斯拉的培训能力将会大大扩展，正如你所知道，七月份标志着dojo生产的开始，接下来的一个季度内，我们应该能看到特斯拉的培训计算能力增加三倍左右。然后在接下来的六个月内，可能从目前的基础上增长大约十倍左右。

So hopefully a lot of these things correlate with some pretty dramatic progress in FSD over that period of time. It's probably going to take longer than what Elon hopes than what all of us would hope. But I think it's exciting to see the path that they are on. And a lot of reasons to feel confident in that path with what we have seen Tesla do so far with neural networks on the perception piece of FSD beta, which these days does seem to be performing pretty extremely well. So hopefully that can then carry over into the planning system. And we can start to see or I guess continue to see some pretty dramatic step changes in FSD beta. So looking forward to that, interesting to hear these continued comments from Elon on that progress.

希望在这段时间里，这些事情能够与全自动驾驶系统（FSD）取得一些相当惊人的进展相吻合。这可能会比埃隆和我们所有人都希望的时间要长一些。但我认为，他们目前所走的道路令人兴奋。我们有很多理由对这条道路感到有信心，因为根据我们目前所见，特斯拉在FSD beta的感知部分中的神经网络表现得相当出色。因此，希望这种表现能够延续到规划系统中。我们可以开始看到，或者继续看到FSD beta中的一些相当惊人的改进。因此，期待这一点，很有意思听到埃隆对这些进展的持续评论。

All right. Next, we've got an update from Tesla from Tesla Energy's Twitter account today talking about power wall installations and the way that they've been able to pretty dramatically reduce installation times for power wall with part of the part of the power wall component set called backup switch.

好的。接下来，我们从特斯拉能源的Twitter账号上获得了一份更新，关于Power Wall的安装情况以及他们通过Power Wall组件集中的备用开关部分，成功地大大缩短了安装时间。

So it's a little bit beyond my understanding in terms of the, you know, electrical work that needs to be done. But they do show a demo video that just shows two side by side installations happening, one with the gateway component of power wall and this, you know, on the right with the backup switch. And on the left, they have a four hour installation to, you know, install it in that way. But with backup switch, they were able to cut the installation down to just 21 minutes. So more than a 10 fold improvement in terms of the installation time with the backup switch.

所以就电气工作而言，这超出了我的理解范围。但是，他们展示了一个演示视频，展示了两个并行的安装过程，一个是带有电池墙的网关组件，另一个是带有备用开关。在左边的安装需要四个小时，而有备用开关的安装只需21分钟。所以备用开关在安装时间上带来了10倍以上的提升。

So Tesla does give us a little bit of details on this. I'm not sure how long this product has been out, but I don't remember talking about it previously. Tesla does say that it's a new component in the Tesla power wall system that facilitates backup power functionality by quickly and safely disconnecting your home from the grid when a power outage is detected. The system then automatically shifts your home energy use to backup power from her power wall.

所以特斯拉确实提供了一些详细信息。我不确定这个产品已经推出多久了，但我记不起之前有没有谈论过它。特斯拉确实表示，这是特斯拉Powerwall系统中的一个新组件，通过在检测到停电时迅速而安全地将家庭与电网断开，实现备用电源功能。然后，系统会自动将您家庭的能源使用切换到Powerwall提供的备用电源。

They do say that this is a whole home system. So it isn't possible to integrate in this way with partial backup systems. And they also say, you know, comments on the installation time, although the video was, you know, four hours to 20 minutes, they do talk about in this the possibility of dropping installation time from in some cases, 10 hours for a power wall system down to about one hour, presumably in, you know, a little bit more complex scenarios in those cases.

他们确实说这是一个整体的家庭系统。所以不可能以部分备份系统的方式进行整合。他们还提到了安装时间的评论，尽管视频显示从四小时减少到20分钟，但他们在这里谈论了将安装时间从某些情况下的10小时降低到大约一小时的可能性，可能是在一些更复杂的情况下。

And then of course, if you want a little bit more information on what exactly the backup switch is, Tesla does break it down a little bit in terms of the pieces of that component of the system on the website. So plenty of information. There's also more information on this in the owner's manual if you're someone that's interested in power wall and potentially thinking about implementing one of these systems. Obviously that would result in some pretty big savings, at least on the installation cost side. So nice to see Tesla continuing to make progress there. Hopefully we hear a little bit more about, you know, progress with power wall. And if there's maybe a power wall three on their horizon, I think that's been teased a couple of times, particularly at investor day where Tesla had a couple of energy products on their roadmap that were sort of covered. So hopefully we get a little bit more information on some of those things pretty soon.

当然，如果你想要更多关于备份开关是什么的信息，特斯拉在其网站上对该系统组成部分进行了一些详细解释。所以有很多信息可供参考。如果你对Powerwall感兴趣并考虑实施这类系统，你也可以在用户手册中找到更多信息。显然，这将在安装成本方面带来相当大的节省。很高兴看到特斯拉在这方面持续取得进展。希望能听到更多关于Powerwall的进展情况。如果可能的话，也许会在未来出现Powerwall 3，这已经在一些地方有所预告，特别是在投资者日，特斯拉在其路线图上介绍了一些能源产品。所以希望能尽快获得一些关于这些事情的更多信息。

All right. Next, we do have a little bit more information out of India as we continue to do. But this is a report out of India saying that Tesla has leased some office space in Pune. And this office space is about 6,000 square feet located in a relatively prestigious or prominent commercial hub in Pune. So interesting to see this. Obviously the business there is, you know, sort of pre pre launch, I would say. But for Tesla to now start implementing spot for space, we've talked previously about some hires that have been made. Elon has said directly that they are hoping to make investments in India, sort of as soon as possible. So all signs are continuing to point to progress there in India. So interesting to see that report and hopefully one of many that we'll see in the future.

好的。接下来，我们在继续进行的过程中对印度有更多信息。这是一份关于特斯拉在普纳租赁一些办公空间的报道。这个办公空间约为6,000平方英尺，位于普纳一个相对著名的商业中心。这非常有意思。显然，他们在那里的业务还处于“准发布前”的阶段。但是，对于特斯拉来说，现在开始租用办公空间，我们之前已经提到了一些新招聘。埃隆直接表示，他们希望尽快在印度进行投资。所以所有的迹象都在继续指向印度取得的进展。很有意思地看到这份报道，并希望将来还会看到更多类似的报道。

And then sort of relatedly, I guess not really, but in terms of Tesla's expansion, there is an update from the Los Angeles Daily News that Tesla has filed a permit for transforming what used to be a pretty significantly sized movie theater into a new service center for vehicles. So maybe not as exciting for the general public, but exciting for Tesla. This is going to be 118,000 square foot facility for automotive repair and service that it would be replacing again, this movie theater. So we've seen a number of these types of facilities pop up of this scale and even a little bit larger scale over the last few months. So kind of interesting or exciting to see those types of things continue.

然后再说，与此相关的是，特斯拉在扩张方面有一个更新，根据《洛杉矶日报》的消息，特斯拉已经提交了一个许可申请，将一个原本规模相当大的电影院改建成一个新的车辆服务中心。对于普通公众来说可能不那么令人兴奋，但对于特斯拉来说是令人兴奋的。这将是一个占地118,000平方英尺的汽车维修与服务设施，将取代这个电影院。在过去几个月里，我们已经看到了几个这种规模甚至更大的设施出现。所以看到这种类型的事情继续进行是相当有趣和令人兴奋的。

All right. Next, we've got an update on Model 3 wait times in Europe. Tesla channel on Twitter noting today that wait times have extended. I'm not sure exactly what they were previously, but now they're all the way out into Q4 and in some cases, even extending into potentially early Q1 on the Model 3 performance, which is interesting given, of course, the talk of downtime happening this quarter from the earnings call.

好的。接下来，我们有一则关于欧洲Model 3等待时间的更新。特斯拉的Twitter频道今天指出等待时间已延长。我不确定之前的等待时间具体是多久，但现在它们一直延伸到了第四季度，甚至在某些情况下延伸到了可能是第一季度初的Model 3性能版，这很有趣，尤其考虑到在财报电话会议中有关本季度停产的讨论。

And we've hopefully seen a little bit of that already at Fremont. Of course, Europe would be supplied by Gigashang Highs production. And what's been happening there with Model 3 has been a little bit unclear. We had the previous rumors that there were shutdowns for highland and that didn't really seem to materialize in Q2. But perhaps now that is contributing to maybe a lower projected inventory flow of Model 3 from Gigashang High in Europe, which then could lead to extended wait times showing in the design studio. So interesting to see that.

希望我们在弗里蒙特（特斯拉工厂）已经看到了其中的一点。当然，欧洲将由Gigashang High的生产供应。关于Model 3在那里所发生的事情还有点不清楚。之前有传言说高地（特斯拉位于美国内华达州的工厂）会停工，但在第二季度似乎并没有真正发生。但现在这可能导致来自Gigashang High在欧洲的Model 3预计库存流量较低，这可能会导致设计工作室的等待时间延长。很有趣，我们将拭目以待。

And we'll continue to keep an eye on Model 3 wait times in general as that could happen in other markets and could be indicative of something similar.

我们将继续关注Model 3的等待时间，因为这可能在其他市场也会发生，并且可能预示着类似情况的发生。

And then the last couple of things. Interesting update on Rivian and Tesla today. So the most recent news between these two companies, of course, was Rivian's adoption of NACS as their charging standard, which they'll integrate into the vehicles starting in 2025. But everything is not rosy between the two quite yet because Tesla's lawsuit of Rivian and some former Tesla employees continues over potential breaching of non-disclosure agreements. And I don't know if it's poaching or how specifically Tesla is framing it in the lawsuit. But basically claiming that Rivian is essentially stolen trade secrets through the process of hiring these employees, particularly relating to Tesla's next gen battery systems. And of course, there were also some things about Tesla's organizational structures and processes and things like that that were a part of this lawsuit as well.

然后，还有最后的一些事情。关于Rivian和特斯拉的最新消息令人感兴趣。这两家公司之间最近的消息，当然就是Rivian采用了NACS作为他们的充电标准，将从2025年开始将其整合到他们的车辆中。但是两者之间并不完全和谐，因为特斯拉对Rivian和一些前特斯拉员工的诉讼仍在继续，原因是可能违反了保密协议。我不知道特斯拉在诉讼中具体是以招揽员工还是其他方式来表述，但基本上声称Rivian通过雇佣这些员工，尤其是涉及特斯拉的下一代电池系统方面，实际上是窃取了商业机密。当然，这次诉讼中还涉及了特斯拉的组织结构和流程等方面的一些问题。

So anyway, there's a ruling on this today that denied the employee's request for a summary adjudication, summary adjudication ruling, which would have dismissed the claims. So this is for now at least proceeding. I think that ruling still needs to be confirmed, but if that is confirmed, it sounds like this would be on track to then potentially go to trial.

总之，今天有一项裁决否决了员工的速审请求，速审裁决将会驳回相关索赔。所以，目前至少会继续进行。我认为该裁决仍需确认，但如果得到确认，似乎会按计划进入潜在审判阶段。

So that will continue to be a story that will continue to stay updated on.

所以这将是一个持续更新的故事，而我们将继续关注。

And then the last item is that unrelated to Tesla, but for XAI, kind of an interesting development here, AI.com, which had previously pointed to chat GPT, now redirects to X.AI, which is a little bit unclear. I'm not sure exactly if anyone knows exactly what's happening with this. If Elon had this domain and had previously been pointing it, for some reason to chat GPT as kind of a result of his past involvement with open AI, and maybe that was just something that never really got updated or fixed. And now is being corrected. Or perhaps Elon acquired this from open AI, which I don't know why open AI would then be willing to sell that to Elon because obviously he's starting a competitor here, which he was clear that he was doing on that Twitter space.

然后最后一件事与特斯拉无关，但对于XAI来说，这是一个有趣的发展。之前AI.com曾指向聊天GPT，现在却重定向到X.AI，这有点不清楚。我不确定是否有人确切地知道发生了什么。如果埃隆拥有这个域名，并且之前将其指向聊天GPT，可能是因为他过去与开放AI有过合作，也许这只是一些从未更新或修复的东西。现在正在进行纠正。或者埃隆可能是从开放AI手中获取了这个域名，我不知道为什么开放AI会愿意将其出售给埃隆，因为明显他正在这里开办竞争对手，这一点在他的Twitter空间中是明确的。

So kind of an interesting dynamic that I'm not exactly sure how it transpired, but interesting to see AI.com, which is a like X.com pretty prominent domain name now pointing to X.AI.

这其实是一种有趣的关联，我不确定具体是怎么发生的，但是看到AI.com，这个和X.com相当知名的域名现在指向了X.AI，实在是很有意思。

All right, that'll wrap it up for today then. As always, thank you for listening. Make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications. You'll also find me on X at Tesla podcast. And we'll see you tomorrow for the Thursday, August 3 episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.

好的，今天的节目就到这里了。一如既往，谢谢你们的收听。记得要订阅并开启通知。你也可以在特斯拉播客中找到我。明天我们将在8月3日（星期四）的特斯拉每日播报中与你再见。谢谢。