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State of auto lending, How the FED works, When will car prices drop? | Danielle DiMartino Booth

发布时间 2023-07-14 08:33:30 来源

摘要

In this episode, I'm speaking with Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of QI Research. 00:00 Intro 01:20 Danielle's background 08:00 Understanding the Federal Reserve 13:20 Dealing with labor shortages 17:10 How QI Research conducts research and analysis 19:25 What's next for inflation? 29:10 The state of auto lending 36:20 Will car prices come down? 42:25 What's next for interest rates 49:20 Best & worst signals in the market right now 53:00 Wrapping up Follow Danielle: Twitter: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com Check out ⁠⁠⁠the website⁠⁠⁠ for more (https://dealershipguy.com) and follow me on Twitter! ⁠(https://twitter.com/GuyDealership⁠) Interested in advertising with CarDealershipGuy? Join the sponsor waitlist ⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠: https://cdgpartner.com This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions.

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In fact, I told a friend of mine, her I walked her through negotiating for a used Jeep Grand Cherokee had like 13,000 miles on it She got it for a song-lung and like just tell the girl you're gonna go by new There's lots of incentives scared the tar to the guy in the used car life

实际上，我告诉了我的一个朋友，我帮她操办一辆行驶路程只有13,000英里的二手Jeep大切诺基。她以非常低的价格得到了这辆车，你可以直接告诉那个女孩说你要买新车。在二手车生活中，有很多激励措施会吓退那个人。

What's up everyone? This is car dealership guy you're listening to the car dealership guy podcast Which is my effort to give you access to the most unbiased and transparent insights into the car market Let's get into today's episode

大家好，我是车行销售员，欢迎收听《车行销售员播客》。这个播客是我努力为大家提供对汽车市场最公正透明的见解的努力。让我们进入今天的节目吧。

Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist of QI Research a research and analytics firm Prior to QI research Danielle spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas where she served as advisor The president Richard Fisher throughout the entire financial crisis In this conversation we discussed Danielle's biggest concern for the US economy The time Warren Buffett randomly reached out to her Danielle's current stance on inflation and what's to come The state of the auto lending market And how the Fed makes decisions and why sometimes it doesn't make so much sense

Danielle DiMartino Booth是QI Research的首席执行官兼首席策略师，该公司是一家研究和分析公司。在加入QI Research之前，Danielle在达拉斯联邦储备银行工作了九年，期间她担任总统理查德·费舍尔的顾问，全程参与了整个金融危机。在这次对话中，我们讨论了Danielle对美国经济最担忧的问题，以及沃伦·巴菲特突然与她联系的事情，Danielle目前对通货膨胀的态度以及未来可能出现的情况，汽车贷款市场的状况，以及联邦储备银行如何做出决策，为什么有时候这些决策不太合理。

We're living through interesting economic times to say the least I hope this conversation helps you make some sense of all of it Here's my conversation with Danielle DiMartino Booth

毫不夸张地说，我们正身处一个有趣的经济时期。我希望这次对话能帮助你更好地理解其中的一切。以下是我与丹妮尔·迪马蒂诺·布思的对话。

All views of car dealership guy and guests on this podcast are solely their opinions None of the views expressed should be treated as financial advice This podcast is for informational purposes only

这个播客中车行销售员和嘉宾的所有观点都仅代表他们个人的意见，不应将其中任何观点视为财务建议。此播客仅供信息目的而提供。

Danielle DiMartino Booth on the pod Danielle welcome Great to be here I'm so excited to talk to you I've met I'm a third generation car guy and my kids are fourth How about how so what's the connection? So my Italian grandfather immigrated in 1923 from Italy The US army trained him to be a mechanic in World War II He was never deployed He was in Great Britain the whole time he came back opened up to Sonoco stations on each side of I-95 outside of New Haven, Connecticut He was a car guy my father was a car guy There's pictures of me with a wrench in my hand and a diaper off And my kids are all car guys so instead of listening to like you know the latest hot topic Whatever we'll go down the highway with my oldest son going you know name that engine Like mom that's the Aston Martin it's not street legal so total car guys I happen to be here I love it well the good thing is we're not talking about car shit at all

丹尼埃尔·迪马蒂诺·布思在播客上，迎接丹尼埃尔，很高兴能来到这里，很兴奋和您交谈。我是一个第三代的汽车迷，我的孩子们是第四代的。那么有什么联系呢？我的意大利祖父于1923年从意大利移民，美国军队在二战期间接受了他的汽车维修训练，他从未被派往前线，一直待在英国，后来回来在康涅狄格州新黑文的I-95公路两旁开设了两家Sonoco加油站。我的父亲也是个汽车迷，有照片显示我手握扳手穿着尿布的样子。我的孩子们也都喜欢汽车，所以他们不听讨论最新热门话题，会带着我最大的儿子一起驶向公路，我们会玩起猜车引擎的游戏，说：“妈妈，那是阿斯顿·马丁，它不合法上路。”所以他们都是彻头彻尾的汽车迷。我很喜欢能在这里，好在我们没有讨论任何与汽车有关的话题。

So well we sort of are but we'll get there Yeah we'll get there Yeah

嗯，我们有点这样，但我们会走到那一步的，是的，我们会走到那一步。

so I think what's really interesting is that I you know I've had this podcast not for about 90 days or so And we really haven't had someone come on and just talk about Lending to a depth automotive lending just you know the markets I have had an economist on the podcast John Smoke from Cox on Motive But that was much more you know focused strictly on a motive And I think zooming out a bit just the market's superfluid right now A lot of change

我认为真正有趣的是，我拥有这个播客已经有大约90天了，但我们真的没有人来讨论汽车贷款，只是探讨一下市场。我曾经在播客中邀请了一位经济学家约翰·斯莫克，他是考克斯汽车集团的成员，但那更加专注于汽车行业。我觉得稍微放大视野一点，目前市场非常流动，变化很多。

I can tell you that dealers are contacting me on a daily basis Asking me many many different things you know specifically because they're assuming that I'm crowdsourcing all this information from the market I would choose certain degree I am but I'm definitely not an economist or an expert in that sense

我可以告诉你，交易商每天都在联系我，询问许多不同的事情，因为他们认为我从市场上集合了所有这些信息。从某种程度上说，我确实在做这样的事情，但我绝对不是经济学家或专家。

And so anyways tons of questions teed up before we even get started on that Can you just give us your background right tell us about you know QI research a company how you got to this point I just think of a very interesting set of experiences so we'd love for people to know about that

所以，总之，在我们开始讨论之前就有许多问题摆在我们面前。你可以简单介绍一下你的背景吗？告诉我们关于你自己、关于QI研究公司以及你是如何到达现在这个阶段的。我觉得你的经历非常有趣，所以我们希望更多人了解这些。

So I'm in New York I'm in New York where I'm up here for media I lived I started my career in New York after I got my MBA in finance I went to an investment bank called Donald's and Lufkine and Gen Rhett There was a huge private equity presence at this bank which made it different than Goldman or Lehman or Morgan Stanley I was truly unique because we helped provide mezzanine finance or leverage buyout financing But it was really cool to be around before private equity was this huge thing I also went to Columbia at night and I got my second degree in journalism

所以我在纽约，我是在纽约，我来这里是为了媒体工作。我在纽约开始了我的职业生涯，我在获得金融学硕士学位后去了一家叫做Donald's and Lufkine and Gen Rhett的投资银行。这家银行有一个庞大的私募股权存在，这使得它与高盛、雷曼或摩根士丹利不同。我真的很特别，因为我们帮助提供中间融资或杠杆收购融资。但真的很酷能在私募股权成为如此重要之前待在那里。我也在哥伦比亚大学晚上上课，并获得了新闻学学位。

I thought when I retired off Wall Street I was going to write for a living That happened earlier than I anticipated after 9-11 so I ended up signing a non-compete leaving the business Giving my mostly at that point junk bond business back to the the junk bond trading desk I learned a lot there about spreads and lending to the lesser credit worthy which will round around to when it comes to cars And I ended up leaving the industry thinking I'd never go back had a daily column within a few months of starting at the Dallas Morning News It was like the oldest unpaid intern they'd ever had because it worked really well with their budget the free part

我原以为当我从华尔街退休后，我会以写作为生。这件事比我预期的要早一些发生，因为在911事件后，我最终签署了一份禁止竞争的协议，离开了这个行业。我把那时基本上只是垃圾债券业务的事情交给了垃圾债券交易部门。在那里，我学了很多关于利差和借贷给信用较差的人的知识，这对汽车之类的事情也会有帮助。最终，我决定离开这个行业，认为自己永远不会回去。开始在达拉斯晨报工作的几个月后，我有了一篇每日专栏文章。就像是他们曾经拥有的最老的无薪实习生一样，因为这对他们的预算非常合适，免费的部分体现得非常好。

When the internet was taking over you know the old fashioned reading the newspaper and Warren Buffett reached out to me He's like you're writing some crazy things and eventually I got to go out to Omaha that was awesome And the Dallas Fed had a new precedent Richard Fisher and he ended up reaching out I ended up being one of his closest advisors on all things macroeconomics monetary policy the market And I was preparing a briefing for him before he would go off to the FOMC needy the Federal Reserve when they went meet eight times a year And when he retired I retired I was no bureaucrat still I'm never going to be a bureaucrat But I followed him into retirement I started QI research and I've published ever since I've published first time I published six days after I left And I said I'm a workaholic but I really love what I do and I just try and provide my clients with as many insights as I possibly can About not just the macroeconomic data not just where the financial markets are but how all of this is going to intersect with monetary policy And what the Fed's going to do next and everybody seems to be interested in that subject so I just keep talking

当互联网开始兴起的时候，你知道以前人们通过读报纸获取信息，沃伦·巴菲特联系了我。他说你写了一些疯狂的东西，最后我被邀请去奥马哈，那真是太棒了。达拉斯联邦储备银行有了新的先例——理查德·费舍尔，他主动联系了我。我最终成为了他在宏观经济、货币政策和市场等领域最亲密的顾问之一。我在他去参加每年八次的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议前为他准备了简报。当他退休时，我也退休了，我从来不是一个官僚主义者，也不会成为官僚主义者。但我跟随他一起退休，开始了QI研究，并自那时起一直在进行出版。离职后的第一次出版是在我离职后的六天，我说我是个工作狂，但我真的喜欢我的工作，我只是尽可能为我的客户提供更多的见解，不仅仅是宏观经济数据、金融市场的走势，还有所有这些与货币政策的交互作用以及美联储接下来将会做什么。似乎每个人都对这个话题感兴趣，所以我就一直在讲述。

And I think that this is probably wondering like when am I going to be able to buy a car for less or you know if you're a dealer, when is my floor planning Tris going to go down and just a lot of questions are going to be super relevant before we get to that. Why did Warren Buffett reach out to you? I didn't want to cut you off on a super treat. No, so I was writing so I wrote that actually Forbes found me after the fact because they were looking for anybody who had written that the subprime housing crisis was going to be both global And it was going to be a nature. So it wasn't going to be contained in the United States. It was going to be a global phenomenon. It was it led into international the international banking system. And what year is this? This was 2000 or 2005 that I was writing about it. And I was watching people take equity out of their homes and use their homes as picky banks that And I was also writing about the dangers of the US government selling so many of its treasury securities to the Chinese. So there was Warren in my inbox one day. And what was his ask? And come see him.

我认为这可能是在疑惑，比如我什么时候才能以更低的价格买到一辆车，或者如果你是一个经销商，那么我的库存资金什么时候会减少等等，有很多问题在这之前都会非常相关。为什么沃伦·巴菲特要联系你？我不想打断你的讲述。不，事实上是福布斯找到了我，因为他们在找任何一位曾提出次贷危机将成为全球性自然危机的人。所以它不会被局限在美国，它将成为一个全球现象，并且渗透到国际银行系统中。这是哪一年？这是2000年或2005年我对此进行写作的。我看到人们将住房净资产抵押出来，将房屋用作流动资金。我还写了美国政府将大量的国债出售给中国所带来的危险。所以一天，我的收件箱里有了沃伦的邮件。那他的请求是什么？他请我去见他。

He's like you're writing crazy things. The dangers of America, you know, mortgaging the farm. And what's going to happen one day if, you know, China's not the frenemy that it appears to be. And this was this is almost 20 years ago. And why did he care. Why did he care about what you were saying. I mean, play people say stuff online or that not online at least at that point but play people say something in the newspaper and I was, I was saying things that at the time nobody was saying. Right now everybody knows that China is not our friend. But years and years ago, it was a very symbiotic relationship when Americans first began buying cheaper products that were imported from China. So it was, it was kind of a maverick radical thing for me to write that we might one day regret the fact that we were selling so many of our sovereign bonds off to another major nation that looked like it was going to be the second largest country, the second largest economy in the world at the time it wasn't. And of course now it is. But but Warren appreciated my conservative approach and my concern for the country.

他就像你在胡说八道。那些关于美国的危险，你知道的，抵押农场。如果有一天中国不再是看似的朋友，会发生什么呢？而这几乎是20年前的事了。他为什么在乎？为什么他在乎你说的话？我是说，人们在网上或者至少在那个时候不在线上都会说一些话。但当时，我说了一些当时没有人说过的话。现在每个人都知道中国不是我们的朋友。但很多年前，当美国人开始购买廉价中国进口商品时，这是一种具有共生关系的关系。因此，我写下我们可能会后悔将如此多的主权债券出售给另一个看似将成为世界第二大经济体的国家，这种观点对我来说是一种独立和激进的想法。当时事实并非如此，而现在它确实是真实的。但是，沃伦赞赏我的保守态度和对国家的关注。

So you also mentioned you spend a decade at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Before we even get into the more nitty gritty kind of deeper details explain for us people that are not smart like you. What, why do we have, you know, all these different federal reserves to all the states and specifically like what is the state level Federal Reserve Bank. Like what, you know, level of authority do they have what decisions do they make relative to the, you know, the overall Federal Reserve and what we see, you know, when the Federal Open Market Committee makes their decisions on TV and we see, you know, Jerome Powell in this case, you know, kind of telling us what interest rates are going to be at and blah, blah, blah.

所以你还提到你在达拉斯联邦储备银行工作了十年。在我们深入探讨更详细的细节之前，能否向我们这些不像你那样聪明的人解释一下。为什么我们有这么多不同的联邦储备银行，尤其是州级联邦储备银行是什么。州级联邦储备银行有什么权力，相对于整个联邦储备银行以及我们在电视上看到的联邦公开市场委员会做出决策时，我们会看到像Jerome Powell这样的人告诉我们利率将会如何变化等等。

Can you explain how that whole relationship works. I'll make this as the same, this possible in 1913. The US economy was nothing like it, what it is today. There was justification for a Minneapolis, a St. Louis, a Kansas City and a Chicago Fed at the time. There was so much of the nation's economy that was centered on the manufacturing industrial base that wasn't what we now call the Rust Belt. And that was started by Oh, I don't know, Henry Ford. That's why there were four districts when when the Federal Reserve system was conceived, they said, well, we're going to need information on the national economy. But we also want to make monetary policy for the entire country. So we want to have feedback from from all of the major economic at the centers. And at the time that the 12 district, which was based out of San Francisco was an outpost.

你可以解释一下整个关系如何运作吗？我会将这个解释与1913年所说的相同。美国经济与今天完全不同。当时明尼阿波利斯、圣路易斯、堪萨斯城和芝加哥的联邦储备银行是有理由存在的。当时国家经济的很大一部分集中在制造业工业基地上，这并不是我们现在所称的“锈带”。这一切的起点可以追溯到亨利·福特。这就是在制定联邦储备体系时为何会有四个地区的原因。当时他们说，我们需要了解全国经济的信息，而且我们还想为全国制定货币政策。所以我们希望从所有主要经济中心得到反馈。而当时总部设在旧金山的第12地区则是一个前哨。

There really wasn't that much economic output such that when you look at the map of the Federal Reserve districts, you're like, well, gee, that's like a huge chunk of the country now. Whereas way back when it was really nothing economically and that's why Janet Yellen's district has had so many blowups in her backyard. It's not supervised enough out there. But back in 1913, it was as far as who's voting and when the federal government is voting. So all of the members of the Federal Reserve board their email addresses and in dot GOV. It's a formal federal agency. They have a permanent vote on the federal market committee. The only district that also has a permanent vote is New York. That's because it is the epicenter of the banking and financial system. So the president of the New York Fed has a permanent vote on the federal market committee. Cleveland and Chicago were deemed to be the second and third most important economies in the country. That's why their presidents get to vote every other year. That leaves the eight remaining, excuse me, the nine remaining districts. They rotate in every three years with a vote, which is why last year when Jim Bullard would say something they'll be like, Oh, what's Jim saying now because he was voting. And he doesn't, he's not up for voting rotation for the two years. So he can say something, but it's harder for him to rattle the market because he doesn't have a vote.

实际上并没有那么多的经济产出，以至于当你看着美联储地区分布图时，你会觉得哇，这就是整个国家的巨大一部分了。然而远古时期，这片区域在经济上真的一无所有，这也是为什么珍妮特·耶伦的地区经历了这么多问题。那里的监管并不够严格。但是在1913年左右，联邦政府进行选举的范围就已经决定了。联邦储备委员会的所有成员的电子邮件地址都以.gov结尾。这是一个正式的联邦机构。他们在联邦市场委员会上拥有永久的投票权。唯一拥有永久投票权的地区是纽约。那是因为它是银行和金融系统的中心。所以纽约联储银行的主席在联邦市场委员会上拥有永久的投票权。克利夫兰和芝加哥被认为是全国第二和第三重要的经济体。这就是为什么他们的主席每两年投一次票。剩下的九个地区每三年轮流投票，这就是为什么去年吉姆·布拉德说些什么时，人们会说，哦，吉姆现在又在说什么，因为他拥有投票权。而他在接下来的两年里没有轮到。所以他可以说一些话，但是他很难搅动市场，因为他没有投票权。

And that's kind of how markets view, you know, this group of 17 voters. They put them in a packing order, depending on how close they are to the chair. Are they in Jerome Powell's ear. Do they influence him, or does he not listen to them at all, and or are they not voting. And unfortunately, you know, this is, there are people who are closer to watching every little detail than I am. And I interpreted easily.

这就是市场对这17位选民的看法，你知道的。他们按照他们与主席的亲近程度进行排序。他们与鲍威尔有密切联系吗？他们会影响他吗，还是他根本不听他们的，或者他们根本不参与投票。不幸的是，有些人比我更加关注每一个细节。我则更容易进行解读。

How does Fed policy get, how does it get decided? Like, how do all these things work, right? How do interest rates truly get decided? Yeah, I get that, you know, they're being fed some data but walk us through that process. And that really work you've been so close to it. So if the Fed thinks that the economy could be performing better, or if the economy is being held back by prohibitively high finance costs, and that therefore the unemployment rate is going, or inflation is coming down too quickly. Then they'll say, you know what, it's time to ease monetary policy. Let's lower interest rates. But what do they look at when they're making these decisions? Well, they're looking at the labor market. They're looking at banks. They're looking at what kind of lending is being done. If credit worthy borrowers are being denied credit, they're they're looking at jobless claims. They're they're looking at all of the things that that that say whether or not the United States is in a recession, industrial production. They're looking at inventory levels. Do people have too many too little inventories, whether you're talking about a clothing store or a card dealership lot. They follow every single small all the way down to it. As long as the data series is very long and seasonally adjustable, they follow it. They have 786 at last count PhDs on staff. They probably need about order of them. They've got way too many cooks in the kitchen. And one of the reasons I wrote Fed Up and Insider's Take on why the Federal Reserve is bad for America is because of how monetary policy. is made, which is simply too cumbersome. Sometimes you can just open your eyes, look around and say something's not right here with the economy. And that I think is a major downfall of the Federal Reserve is they don't have more lay people who are part of the leadership.

美联储的政策是如何制定的？就像，所有这些东西是如何运作的，对吧？利率是如何真正决定的？是的，我知道，他们正在接受一些数据，但请为我们解释一下这个过程。你一直很靠近这个工作，所以他们会认为经济可能表现更好，或者经济被过高的金融成本所阻碍，因此失业率正在上升，或者通胀过快，那么他们会说，知道了，现在是时候放松货币政策了，我们降低利率。但是他们在做决策时关注的是什么？嗯，他们关注劳动力市场，他们关注银行，他们关注借贷情况。如果有信用良好的借款人被拒绝贷款，他们会关注失业救济索赔情况。他们关注一切可以说明美国是否处于衰退的因素，工业生产情况，库存水平等。无论是谈论服装店还是汽车经销商的停车场，他们都会跟踪每一个细小的细节。只要数据系列非常长且具有季节性可调性，他们都会追踪。他们的员工中有786名拥有博士学位，按最近统计数据来看，他们可能需要大约这个数量的人才。在厨房里有太多的厨师。我写《Fed Up：联邦储备系统对美国影响有多糟糕》这本书的一个原因是因为货币政策的制定方式实在太过繁琐。有时候，你只需要睁开眼睛，看看周围，就能感到经济出了问题。我认为这是美联储的一个重大缺陷，他们没有更多的非专业人士参与领导层。

Interesting. Yeah, I mean, I will get to labor, but you know, they unemployment 3.7%. Wall Street Journal put out a stat the other day that average auto repair is taking more than 70, 70 days to complete last year. And that's up from around up around 65% from 10.3 days in 2019. I can tell you that hiring to technicians, auto technicians at the dealership has never been tougher. How do you how do we reconcile all this with interest rates have gone up? I don't know, like 45% or so in the last year, year and a half. How do we reconcile all this? So that, you know, there are several factors that plan to this. I we we paid for our lifelong housekeeper son to go through a Toyota training program. It was also partial associates degree to where he got out. He was automatically working as a mechanic. There are a lot of great programs like that, not enough. Such that you have a deficit of the skilled workers you need, whether you're talking about auto technicians or you, or you're talking about electricians HVAC plumbers in the current dynamic. People bought so many lemons during the pandemic that the demand for auto repair is multiples of what it's been historically. Because you've got so many more people out there paying loans, put their upside down on these loans, and these cars are breaking because they paid way too much money for high mileage cars that now have to be repaired as any older, the older the car is, the more repairs it needs. And that's why you're seeing this massive demand supply mismatch between the number of technicians you have and the amount of demand you have for their services.

有趣。是的，我是说，我会去劳动，但你知道，失业率是3.7%。《华尔街日报》前段时间发布了一项数据，去年平均汽车维修需要超过70天时间完成。这相比2019年的10.3天增加了65%左右。我可以告诉你，在汽车经销商雇佣汽车技术人员从来没有那么困难过。在利率上升的情况下，我们如何解决这一切呢？我不知道，过去一年半左右利率上升了大约45%左右。我们如何解决这一切呢？因此，对此有几个因素起到了作用。我们为我们家佣人的儿子支付了学费，让他参加了丰田培训计划，这也是一个部分副学士学位课程。他毕业后就直接成为了一名汽车技工。有很多像这样的好项目，但不够。这导致你们在需要熟练工人的地方出现了不足，无论是汽车技术人员还是电工、暖通空调工或水暖工等。人们在疫情期间购买了很多瑕疵车，因此对汽车维修的需求是历史上的倍数。因为有更多的人负债累累，他们为高里程的车支付了过多的钱，而这些车辆因为年限过长而需要维修的次数更多。这就是为什么你们看到了技师数量与服务需求之间出现了巨大的供需不平衡的原因。

So, do you think you do not think this is representative of the broader economy. No, I don't know. I mean, when was the last time you waited too long in a restaurant. I don't anymore. It was pretty fascinating once you saw the emergency, the public health emergency. Reversed months ago, and, and the food stamp program therefore. It's emergency injection. I think the average household was getting, I think, an extra $100 a month. A lot of Medicaid funding that was deemed part of the public health emergency. And all of a sudden you see this huge spike in the labor force participation rate of unskilled limit.

所以，你觉得你并不认为这代表了更广泛的经济情况。不，我不知道。我的意思是，你上次在餐厅等得太久是什么时候？我已经不再遇到这种情况了。一旦你看到紧急情况，公共卫生紧急情况，它就变得非常引人入胜。几个月前就已经逆转了，食品券计划也是如此。这是一种紧急注入。我认为普通家庭每月会多得到大约100美元。很多被视为公共卫生紧急情况的医疗补助资金。突然间，你会看到不熟练工人的劳动参与率出现了巨大增长。

And that's, you know, if you pay people enough to not work, they're not going to work. People can do math. When when the cares act was first passed, a single working mother of two. Her income was 61,900. Let's just say theoretically she was a home health aide. Making $25,000 a year. Why in the world would she ever go back into the workforce until she was forced to do so because what the state and the federal government were paying or wasn't enough for her to put food on the table and or my husband lost his job.

这就是说，你知道的，如果给人们足够的报酬让他们不工作，他们就不会工作。人们可以算一算。当第一次通过《关爱行动法案》时，有一个两个孩子的单身母亲。她的收入是61,900美元。我们就假设她是一名家庭护理助理，年薪25,000美元。她为什么要回到工作岗位上呢？除非她被迫这样做，因为国家和联邦政府支付的报酬不足以让她养家糊口，或者是我丈夫失业了。

There are a lot of businesses closing left and right. And we're seeing that, especially with small businesses, but we're also seeing large bankruptcies companies with $50 million or more in liabilities. We're seeing more of those at the outset of 2023 in the first six months that we've seen since 2000 and nine. So there are a lot of job losses going on right now. But I think what you're looking. out right now is a skills mismatch that is being kind of hyper driven by all of the lemons on the roads.

目前有很多企业纷纷倒闭。尤其是小企业，但我们也看到有规模的公司因负债超过5000万美元而宣告破产。从2023年初到现在的前六个月，我们看到的这种情况比2009年以来都要多。因此，目前存在很多失业的问题。但我认为你现在关注的是一个技能不匹配的问题，而这个问题正受到所有困境的推动而变得更加严重。

What's the core data sets that you use as part of your company. What data set do you rely on? Where do you get your information from? Oh gosh, I mean, we have hundreds of data sources. You know, one that I look at very closely was was one that came out of the pandemic, light cast. They have weekly job postings. So, you know, when you're in a pandemic first hit job postings for individual individuals with minimal levels of education, went through the roots, you could not pay people enough to work in a hotel. You know, change of bed, clean a bathroom, bus tables, you couldn't pay people that that's where you saw the fastest wage inflation. And that number is now negative. Benchmarked against January 2020. We have a little replenishment of the deficit of workers that we had in the lowest skilled lowest paying jobs. We've also had a white collar reception going on. That's going to be very problematic when student loan repayments resume, the white collar recession aspect because the biggest, the biggest bills out there are among those who would be considered a white collar profession. And they're about to get shellacked if they don't have a job, if they're paying too much for their car loan, if they have a fat mortgage, and then they get the student loan on top of it.

你们公司使用的核心数据集是什么？你们依赖哪些数据集？你们的信息从哪里获取？哦天哪，我的意思是，我们有成百上千个数据来源。其中一个我特别关注的是疫情期间出现的一个数据集，叫作 "light cast"。他们每周发布职位招聘信息。所以，在疫情初期，很多教育水平较低的个人在职位招聘方面遇到了困难，你无论如何也找不到愿意在酒店工作的人，无论是整理床铺、清洁浴室还是擦桌子，都无法雇佣到人。这就是你看到最快速的工资通胀，现在这个数字已经变成了负数，与 2020 年 1 月相比。我们在最低技能和最低薪酬的工作岗位上有一点点补充了我们之前缺人的情况。我们也有一个白领招聘危机正在进行中。当学生贷款偿还恢复时，这可能会带来很大的问题，因为白领衰退的影响最大，而目前正在白领职业中的人中有很多人面临困境。如果他们没有工作，如果他们为汽车贷款支付得太多，如果他们有一笔巨额的抵押贷款，再加上学生贷款，那么他们将会遭受巨大打击。

How do you define a white collar recession. You define a white collar recession by by looking at the, the, the pay, the pay levels of the fastest growing levels of unemployment. Professional and business services. And then there's a lot of openings in that particular area, which would be considered to be management. Good paying jobs. Job openings are down 40% over January of 2020. Because you have so many people in Silicon Valley. So many startups that people just threw money at them. Oh, you said, Jen, January of 2020. January 2020 is your benchmark. So job postings in business and professional services are down 40% since January of 2020. You're seeing it play out. It's like a microcosm or a macrocosm of Silicon Valley bank. You know, it doesn't matter what your business model is. We have billions and billions of dollars because the Fed's but interest rates down to the zero bound. We're going to fund any startup that can fog a mirror.

你如何定义白领衰退。你通过观察失业率增长最快的工业领域，即专业和商务服务，来定义白领衰退。在这个特定领域有很多职位，被认为是高薪的管理岗位。自2020年1月以来，职位空缺减少了40％。因为硅谷有很多人，有很多创业公司，人们只是把钱扔给了他们。哦，你说了，詹，2020年1月。2020年1月是你的基准。自2020年1月以来，商业和专业服务的工作岗位减少了40％。你会看到这样的情况。这就像硅谷银行的一个缩影或整体。无论你的商业模式是什么，我们都有数十亿美元的资金，因为联邦把利率降至零限制。我们将为任何能立即开始创业的公司提供资金支持。

So piggyback you off that topic. What's next for inflation? And I'll tell you where I'm coming from car prices, record highs, service department prices, record highs, interest rates, multi deck and highs. What's the deal here? Right. I know on one hand, you know, so like cost to produce a new car has also gone up. But what do you think is happens next when it comes to inflation?

所以插播一下这个话题。通胀接下来会怎样？我会告诉你我的观点是从汽车价格、创纪录的高点开始的，服务部门价格也是如此，利率一直处于多层高点。这里面的情况是怎样的呢？我知道一方面，新车生产成本也在上升。但是你认为接下来通胀会发生什么？

So it's interesting you ask. I follow this metric called trueflation TRU. It's been around for a few years here. And I learned about it from bond traders. So I actually reached out to the company and asked if I could use their historical data to run a correlation and see what is that 2.2% that is based on 30 million prices in real-time compared to 4.0% for the CPI headline. What is the correlation between these two data sets? 97% with 100 being perfect.

所以你问这个问题很有趣。我遵循一个叫做真实通胀率（TRU）的度量标准，它在这里已经存在了几年。我是从债券交易员那里了解到这个度量标准的。因此，我实际上联系了这家公司，并询问他们是否可以提供历史数据给我，以便我可以运行相关性分析，看看基于3000万实时价格计算的2.2%与CPI总指数4.0%之间的关联性。这两个数据集之间的相关性是97%，100%表示完美相关。

In other words, inflation is coming down inflation is coming down quickly. We're seeing incentive spending at OEMs on a nationwide basis double over last year. You're seeing used car prices come down much more rapidly than anybody would have thought. I think there's there's a fresh Manheim data. coming out to that effect as well, despite the fact that there still aren't enough cars coming off lease. So, and add that to the fact that you're seeing ordinary events.

换句话说，通胀正在迅速下降。我们看到全国各地的汽车制造商的激励性支出与去年相比翻了一番。二手车价格下降的速度比任何人预期的都要快。我想曼海姆的最新数据也证明了这一点，尽管仍然没有足够的租赁车辆到期。因此，还有一个事实需要加入其中，那就是您正在看到普通事件。

American households in the aggregate are spending less money year over year on food. Then they were 12 months ago. Food, you have the CEO of Tyson Corporation come out and say, we've never seen beef pork and chicken sales down at the same time. But here we are today. All three of them. Households are increasingly squeezed, especially those in the middle. So you think why is this going to be inflation can do.

美国家庭在整体上每年在食物上的花费都在减少。与12个月前相比，他们的花费更少了。食品方面，泰森公司的首席执行官出来说，我们从未见过牛肉、猪肉和鸡肉销售同时下滑。但是今天我们却出现了这三者都下降的情况。家庭负压越来越大，尤其是中产家庭。所以你可以想一下，这可能是由通货膨胀所导致的。

Yeah, I think on the car front, just to just to double click on that, I think that with used cars, what I've been seeing is that putting putting that data aside because I don't think that that is. It's a perfect picture. I think we're seeing that on the on like the higher end cars. We're definitely seeing an accelerated decrease there. I think what you're looking at the really kind of bread and butter stuff that I just needed, you know, something to get me from A to B. That's definitely there's like almost no movement at all. Those things are staying very steady. So I think, but definitely, we are seeing an acceleration on the luxury segments. You know, when you started to get to 40, 50, $60,000 cars, I would agree with you there. We saw what Hyundai sales went up. 9.9%. I think in June, I think Pia sales went up like 11%. So your point A to point B. That's happening in the real world.

是的，就车辆方面来说，我认为对于二手车的情况，根据我所见，就先别管数据的问题，因为我不认为那是一个完美的画面。我认为我们看到的是那些高端车型在减少方面加速了。对于那些让我从A点到B点的基本车辆，我看到几乎没有什么变动，它们保持非常稳定。所以我想，肯定地说，我们确实看到了豪华车型的销量加速下降。你要说的40、50、60万美元级别的汽车，我同意你的观点。我们看到了现实世界中现代汽车销量增加了9.9％，我记得皮亚杰也增加了11％。也就是说，从A点到B点的基本需求依然存在于现实世界中。

Yeah, well, I think again, if we're looking at new cars, even the price today of like, you know, you look at a, like, you know, the Kia carnivals, the Kia tell your eyes, very hot cars and they're not, you know, they're not, they're not cheap anymore, relatively speaking. But, but again, putting all that together. So what do you think using inflation at this point is just like, it's behind us. The feds, the data is maybe a bit late in or they're just, you know, they're not.

是的，嗯，我再想一下，如果我们正在看新车的话，即使是像凯亚嘉年华、凯亚探索这样的热门车型，它们的价格也越来越高了，相对而言已经不便宜了。但是，综合考虑所有因素，你认为通胀现在已经过去了吗？联邦储备系统的数据可能有点滞后，或者他们根本没有意识到。

Right. I think the data are playing catch up. If you, if you incorporate. Morgan Stanley put out some interesting data this morning that showed that we've. We've caught back all of the jobs that we lost and then some. So we've recouped all job losses. And in addition to that, if you look at. Average income across the entire income spectrum, the United States, all workers. You're actually back to 2019 levels.

好的，我认为数据正在追赶。如果你，如果你加进去的话。摩根士丹利今天上午发布了一些有趣的数据，显示我们已经。我们已经弥补了所有失去的工作，而且更多。所以我们已经恢复了所有的工作损失。此外，如果你看一下。整个收入范围内的平均收入，美国，所有劳动者。实际上已经回到了2019年的水平。

So at this point, again, because companies continue to close because the Fed has no intention. Of stopping any time soon. What do you mean by that? No relief in sight. Because that's the case. You're going to see continued business closures. Companies, but it's not accurate. Is that accurate? I mean, just like they told us, hey, inflation was transitory. I didn't lower behold, great started skyrocketing. Like how accurate do you really think that is?

所以在这一点上，因为公司继续关闭，而美联储无意马上停止这一切。你的意思是什么？没有任何缓解的迹象。因为情况就是如此，你将会看到持续的业务关闭。但这是否准确？我是说，就像他们告诉我们一样，通胀只是暂时的。没等我们注意到，它却开始飙升了。你真的认为这个准确吗？

Well, you know, I mean, I know for a fact that the minutes from the Fed meeting can be massaged after the fact. Today we learned that there were, there were descents threatened by people who were. Who did not agree with pausing at the June meeting. That's the message that they chose to convey. And I know it surprised me. What's something that surprised me as an outsider here, right? Like I'm absolutely not from this space. I was just surprised to see that the way rates went up so quickly. So, you know, consistently. I don't know. I found that bizarre. I just figured that, you know, the boards of these, you know, massive banks would have some more poll with the government. Not saying that it should be that way. I'm just saying that I was thinking is it's called me a little bit off-cars at how like they're like, Hey, look, to your point, SVB, first republic, all these banks that they just got decimated by some, you know, you could say there was, you know, better reasons than others. I don't wish I'd upon anyone. But nonetheless, I just found it very surprising how quickly they were able to pull that off.

嗯，你知道，我的意思是，我知道事实上联邦储备会议的记录可以在会后进行一些润色。今天我们了解到，在6月份的会议上，有一些人威胁要表示不同意暂停加息。这是他们选择传达的信息。我知道这让我吃了一惊。作为局外人，有些事情让我感到惊讶，对吧？像我完全不属于这个领域。我只是吃惊的是利率上升得如此迅速，如此一贯。我不知道。我觉得这很奇怪。我只是认为，你知道，这些大银行的董事会应该在政府方面有更多的影响力。我并不是说应该这样，我只是说，我想这让我有点困惑，他们就像是说，嘿，看，正如你所说，SVB、第一共和国，还有所有这些银行，它们受到了一些严重的打击，可以说一些原因比其他原因更好。我不希望任何人遭此厄运。但无论如何，我只是发现他们能够如此迅速地做出反应非常令人惊讶。

Well, the Fed is supposed to be an independent and a political institution supposed to be supposed to be. Wall Street has always had undue levels of influence. Big banks have as well. The fact that Jerome Powell has for as long as he has managed to stay higher for longer is a shock. It's a shock to the banks, to the bankers, to the investment community, to borrowers, to lenders. It's a shock to everybody unless he's got what I call a higher colleague, if he's trying to break the tail wagging the dog syndrome, where in the banks and the private equity firms would influence monetary policy. If you're trying to say that that relationship no longer exists, that the rules of engagement have changed that the Fed's truly going to go back to being an independent entity that then you've got to stay higher for longer. You've got to prove your point, which, you know, Alan Greenspan took office in August of 1987. You know, it hadn't happened since then. This live experiment that we're witnessing.

嗯，美联储本应是一个独立而且政治中立的机构。华尔街一直以来都有过度的影响力，大银行也是如此。杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）能够长久地保持高位是令人震惊的。对银行、银行家、投资界、借款人、贷款人来说都是一种震动。除非他有一个我称之为更高级的同事，他试图打破犬尾巴摇狗的情况，即银行和私募股权公司会影响货币政策。如果你想表达的是这种关系已不复存在，协作规则已经改变，美联储真正打算恢复成一个独立实体的话，那你必须长时间保持高位来证明你的观点，就像艾伦·格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）在1987年8月上任后那样。我们正在见证的就是这一实时实验。

You tweeted about 5th, 3rd, a few days ago, pulling out of certain areas. The entire western region. The third just pulled their entire wholesale mortgage division just close down today. So, you know, do you think that's a proactive measure or do you think that's a really active measure? I think that if banks can't do math in terms of what the Supreme Court's just said, if banks don't understand that in the aggregate, you know, S&P global has told us that if you add up, not, it's not just a subprime phenomena. If you will get across the entire spectrum from super prime to to subprime. That that the starting point from a 3.7% unemployment rate is the highest in history. That was data that came out last week, I want to say that's your starting point. So, banks see the writing on the wall. They know that charge-offs are going to be historic. They know that people are going to be walking away from their cars. And they know that people are going to be able to walk away from their cars and do just as you said months ago and get another car loan.

您几天前在推特上发表了关于第五、第三银行的言论，称他们正从某些地区撤离，包括整个西部地区。第三银行甚至刚刚关闭了他们的全部批发抵押贷款部门。所以，您觉得这是一种积极主动的措施还是一种真正积极的措施呢？我认为，如果银行们不能理解最高法院刚刚做出的判决所涉及的数字，不能明白整体来看，标普全球指数已经告诉我们，这不仅仅是次贷危机的问题，它涵盖了从超级优质贷款到次级贷款的整个范围。而从3.7%的失业率开始计算，这是历史上最高的数据。这是上周公布的数据，这将是我们的起点。所以，银行们看到了问题的迹象。他们知道坏账会创纪录。他们知道人们会放弃他们的汽车。他们也知道人们能够放弃他们的汽车，并像您几个月前说得那样，再次获得一笔车贷。

But do you think do you think that gets us to a point where it's like a crisis or do you think it just gets us back to like a mean reversion, right? Because we definitely had very low the fall three possessions over the last couple of years. People were flush with cash. So, like, to what point does that pendulum swing? Where do you think? And based on what? So, I think we do overcorrect when it comes to repossessions. And that has more to do with the fact that I speak to people in the world of boats and ATVs and everything else that everybody was able to get access to way too much credit for after the pandemic because lending standards. They more than collapsed. I mean, you don't walk off of a lot with a new car. Excuse me, they used Carlo with 140% LTV. I mean, like on planet Earth, that should be impossible. And yet, here we are. So, charge-offs, what people lose on car loans is going to reset history. And if you're prudent and you want to be well positioned to come back in when this party is over because at last check, you know, monthly payments are still setting new records. So, people are still falling down this rabbit hole. They just, you can't tell the average person who wants a car that they need to wait. They're not going to do it. Cars are emotional purchases. And as long as the financing's there, people are going to buy them. You can say, but hey, commercial and industrial lending is declining. That means that businesses are going to keep closing. If they don't, if businesses don't have access to financing, they're going to close. They're going to have people as a result get laid off. And the ability to, you know, to hold up the economy is going to become increasingly impaired. People don't care if they want a car. I want a car, I want a car. Somebody will finance it for me even better. Give us the status quo on auto lending, right? What's your current perception of auto lending and what also what happens next? Tell us about that.

你认为这会导致危机，还是只会回归到平均水平呢？因为过去几年，我们明显经历了非常低的收回三项。人们手头有很多现金。那么，这个问题会演变到什么程度呢？你怎么看？依据是什么？我认为，在回收方面，我们确实存在过度矫正的情况。这更多是因为我与船只、全地形车等领域的人交谈时，每个人都能得到过多的信贷，尤其是在疫情之后，因为放贷标准严重下滑。我是说，你不可能带着一辆全新的车从车场上走下来，抱歉，他们用140%的贷款额度向你出借车子。在地球上，这是不可能的。然而，我们却置身其中。因此，坏账，也就是人们在汽车贷款上的损失将重新定义历史。如果你很谨慎，并且想在这场狂欢结束时重新进入市场，因为据最新消息，月供仍在创新高。所以，人们仍然在陷入这个兔子洞。但你无法告诉普通人想要一辆车他们应该等待。买车是基于情感的决策。只要有融资，人们就会购买。你可以说，但是，商业和工业贷款正在下降。这意味着企业将继续关闭。如果企业无法获得融资，它们就会关闭，从而导致人员裁员。支撑经济的能力将越来越受影响。人们并不在乎，如果他们想要一辆车，他们就会买。我想要一辆车，我想要一辆车。如果有人能为我提供融资，那就更好了。给我们关于汽车贷款的现状，你对汽车贷款的当前看法是什么？接下来会发生什么？请告诉我们。

So it's interesting because just today there was an article out that said subprime auto ABS investors can get burned for the first time, possibly since 2009. There was a little chart that went with it.

所以很有意思的是，就在今天有一篇文章指出次贷汽车资产证券（ABS）投资者可能自2009年以来首次亏损。文章还附有一个小图表。

I think, I think because securitization itself and you have to look at commercial mortgage backed securities, which. Issuance is down, I think, 85% you over a year on commercial mortgage backed securities. I think you have to be able to see over the horizon after student loan repayments are resumed that you're going to see a similar phenomenon in terms of auto-backed asset-backed securities, auto loan backed, also being similarly impaired. And I think that that's why a lot of banks are stepping back from saying, you know what, I don't want to play that warehouse space. I want to try to sell off that bundle of car loans. I'm just going to sit this one out and wait and see where the dust settles. But I think you will see lending increasingly impaired as we approach this student loan cliff.

我认为，这是因为证券化本身，你必须看商业按揭支持证券的情况。商业按揭支持证券的发行量在一年内减少了85%。我认为，在学生贷款还款恢复后，你将会看到类似的现象发生在汽车资产支持证券中，汽车贷款支持证券也将受到类似的影响。我认为这就是为什么很多银行都在回避说，你知道吗，我不想参与那个仓储空间。我想尽量把这一批汽车贷款卖掉。我只是会坐在一旁等待灰尘落定。但我认为，随着我们接近学生贷款危机的临界点，贷款将越来越受到影响。

Do you think that's going to have a big impact on auto loans. I think it's going to have a big impact on delinquencies and therefore lending capacity. I still have a red cup for 4th of July for for the audience that doesn't see the video on holding a red. Cut out in it yesterday. Not quite just some plain and good old water, but there you go. That's the cameo for the red cup.

你认为这会对汽车贷款产生很大影响吗？我认为这会对拖欠贷款和因此贷款能力产生很大影响。我还有一只为了国庆节而准备的红色杯子，是为了给那些看不到视频的观众展示的。昨天杯子上有个剪切口。虽然不只是普通的水，但就是这样。这就是红杯的客串角色。

Okay, so I mean, I think we can all agree dealing with this will rise, but the question is how much. And again, you as, you know, having watch a space very closely like what's your prediction there and why.

好的，我的意思是，我认为我们都可以同意处理这个问题将会上升，但问题是上升的程度。而且，你作为密切关注这一领域的人，你对此有什么预测，以及为什么会这样预测呢？

You know what I can't tell you where delinquencies are going because the starting place is record highs. And again, this is not a record eyes though, because like what I saw. Yeah, and S&P it is this was fresh data. And this what what that are you would that are you looking at. Standard and poorest. Sorry, what's specific.

我告诉不了你失信行为正在走向何方，因为起点已经创下了纪录高位。虽然这并不是纪录之最，但从我看到的情况来看，情况不容乐观。是的，标准普尔提供了最新数据。你是在问关于什么具体数据？标准普尔。对不起，你在询问什么具体内容？

Like, for example, when last I looked was a just auto securitization data in the public markets. I saw that the all the 60 days, 60 day past two loans that were deep subprime were above. Oh, nine levels, right. But then I saw that, you know, when we looked at the other. The other delinquencies across the table, it seemed really it has been rising for sure last year and a half two years. But it's still not. It still wasn't above 2019 levels. It was sort of it looked like a mean reversion. What's your take on that.

举个例子，比如说，最近一次我查看公共市场的汽车证券化数据时，我看到所有60天期的次级次级贷款都高于九级水平。但是随后我发现，当我们查看了其他表格上的逾期情况时，似乎在过去的一年半到两年里确实有所上升。但它还没有超过2019年的水平。它看起来有点像均值回归。你对此有什么看法？

So I think what S&P is looking at is auto loan as opposed to ABS. So you're not getting it. Different tranche of explain the difference just to the audience. There are there are some banks that make auto loans. There are some banks that sell loans that are made such that they're pulled into securitizations and sold off as separate securities. Those separate securities are going to be divided up into your absolute most pristine buyers with the highest FICO scores all the way down tranches in between two year, you know, super subprime whatever the heck, whatever the least credit where the borrower is. As you go down that tranche ladder, the yield investors get is much higher. And it is very rare to see losses on these securities, even in the least credit-worthy tranches. Yet here we are today, mainly because so many student loan borrowers a new study came out showed have taken on additional forms of household debt. While this large line item in their budget has been on on hold for all these years. They've taken on incremental debt. So it's not like they've been setting aside that $400 a month. And they're ready to resume payments with the extra savings. They've gone the other way. They've taken on extra debt. And that's why you see 65% of people who bought homes in 2022 and 2023. Say, I can't I bought my house. I can't afford it. I didn't know about all this. What what percent. 65% of home buyers who bought their homes in 2022 and 2023. Peak prices for homes. Now say, I'm struggling to make my payment.

所以我认为S&P所关注的是汽车贷款而不是资产支持证券。所以你没有理解。不同层级的解释仅适用于听众。有一些银行提供汽车贷款。有一些银行出售贷款，这些贷款被纳入证券化并作为独立证券出售。这些独立证券将被分为不同层级，最高信用评分的最可靠买家，最下层级的，不管借款人的信用情况如何。随着你进入这个层级的下方，投资者的收益率将会更高。即使在信用最差的层级，损失也是非常罕见的。然而，如今我们所面临的问题主要是因为众多学生贷款借款人承担了额外的家庭负债。一项最新研究显示，尽管多年来他们的预算中存在这一巨额的款项，但他们承担了额外的债务。并非像他们一直存放每月400美元，准备在额外的储蓄上恢复还款。他们反而走向了另一个方向，承担了额外的债务。这就是为什么你会看到在2022年和2023年购房的65%的人说，我买了房子，但我负担不起。我不知道这些问题。有多少百分比？在2022年和2023年购房的人中，有65%表示，我难以偿还我的贷款。

And where's that? Where did that survey come from or the data? Well, I, it came from a Bloomberg story that I read that cited the survey data. I'd have to go back and look. Yeah, no problem. But another one at the same time said 62% I think specifically of millennials couldn't afford their house payment. I don't think people quite understand what's happening in the States of Florida, where these insurance premiums are going up for their homeowners insurance, quadrupling, but doubling. People don't understand the cost of replacing a new air conditioning system. So for a lot of first-time homebuyers who bought at the highest home prices in the history of mankind. These, it's a huge rude awakening to have to carry the cost of the home. Property taxes have gone through the roof. Got to pay them.

那在哪里？那份调查是从哪里来的，或者数据是怎么得到的？嗯，我是从一篇我看到的彭博新闻报道中得知的，报道引用了该调查的数据。我得回去再查一下。是的，没问题。但与此同时，另一份调查显示大约62%的千禧一代支付不起他们的房屋贷款。我不认为人们完全理解佛罗里达州正在发生的情况，那里的房主保险费用飙升，甚至增长了四倍。人们不明白更换新的空调系统的成本。所以对于很多首次购房者来说，他们购买的房价是有史以来最高的。这对他们来说是一个巨大的惊醒，必须承担房屋的成本。房产税也飞涨，不得不付款。

So, given all that, I mean, what's next for consumption? I think I've heard you speak about de-stocking. But what's your thoughts there? How does all this kind of trickle down and impact actual consumption in the market?

那么，考虑到这一切，我的意思是，消费接下来会怎样？我记得你提到过去库存。但你对此有何看法？所有这些如何渗透并对市场实际消费产生影响？

Paragraph 1: So this is, to be continued. a de-st... I've been doing this for a long time. De-stocking is not a word I ever had to use. What does it mean? It means companies are taking inventory levels below where they need to continue running the same levels of production. And where is this happening? Where are you seeing this happening? Across the industrial sector.

所以，这是一个持续进行的去库存行为。我已经做了很长时间了。去库存不是我曾经需要使用过的一个词。它是什么意思呢？它意味着公司将库存水平降低到低于他们需要维持相同生产水平的程度。这种情况发生在哪里？你在哪里看到这种情况？在整个工业部门都有出现。

Paragraph 2: It was interesting. There was a German company that reported a few days ago, German Chemicals Company. Chemicals are considered to be the very forefront of the production process. Because chemical through your rawest input. But this German company said we thought de-stocking was going to end by the second quarter. It's not. So we're going to cut our workforce slashing our forecast, taking down our estimates. And you're hearing the same word de-stocking, whether you're talking about any of the regional Federal Reserve Manufacturing Surveys. And you're even hearing services firms say, we don't have enough of a backlog. We don't have enough demand to justify having all these lawyers on staff. So we're going to push through and fire some lawyers because we don't have enough casework. So it's not simply an industrial manufacturing factory floor phenomenon where you're seeing this.

这很有趣。几天前有一家德国公司报告了一些消息，那就是德国化工公司。化工被认为是生产过程的最前沿。因为化工能改善原材料。但是这家德国公司表示，我们曾以为去库存将在第二季度结束。然而情况并非如此。因此我们会削减工作人员，调低预测，降低估值。而且你会听到同样的词汇“去库存”，无论你是在谈论任何地区的联邦储备银行制造业调查，甚至在服务公司中也会听到，我们没有足够的积压订单。我们没有足够的需求来证明我们需要所有这些律师在员工队伍中。因此我们将继续推进并解雇一些律师，因为我们没有足够的案件工作。所以这并不仅仅是在工业制造工厂车间中出现的现象。

Paragraph 3: Do you think car prices will actually deflate? I mean, we under-produced, again, I think S&P or an experience, but I want to say, but we under-produced around like 8.6 million cars, new cars over the last three to four years. Now, you could say, well, did we really under-produced because people are now keeping the cars longer? So I think there's definitely some margin of error there. You could say, okay, well, deduct some percentage from that. But there's no doubt about it. We have under-produced cars and car prices went up and there was a shortage. Do you think that there is a world where car prices deflate meaningfully? And we can define meaningfully as, let's say, 25% to 30% more than expected? Or do you think just given the fact that new cars are cost more to produce nowadays, we've achieved a new baseline and we may see some accelerated depreciation versus what we've come to expect over the prior decade, but it's unlikely that these cars will really depreciate or the prices will deflate a meaningful amount. What's your thought on that?

你认为汽车价格会真的下降吗？我是说，我们再次产量不足。我觉得是标准普尔或一种经验，但我想说，过去三到四年里，我们的新车产量大约少了860万辆。现在，你可能会说，我们真的产量不足吗，因为人们现在更加倾向于保留汽车更久了？所以我想这里肯定有一些误差的余地。你可以说，好吧，从那个数字里扣减一些百分比。但无疑的是，我们确实产量不足，汽车价格上涨并且出现了短缺。你认为会有一种情况，汽车价格会有明显的下降吗？我们可以把明显定义为比预期多25%到30%？或者你认为，考虑到现在生产新车的成本更高，我们已经建立了一个新的基准，我们可能会看到比过去十年所期望的更加加速的折旧，但是这些车辆真的会有明显折旧或价格下降的情况是不太可能的。你对此有什么看法？

Paragraph 4: So you're asking me how long and how deep the recession is going to be? You're asking me, how many people are going to lose their jobs? How much demand is going to be destroyed? How many more adult males are going to move back in with mom and dad? It's a really hard question to answer. Using a year ago with Mary Barris said she was going to hold the line, and the minute her competitors started doing incentive pricing, that's about how long her resolute stance lasted, because you can only do that unless you're willing to simply sell less than your competitors. Otherwise, you got to follow them down that rabbit hole.

所以你问我，这场经济衰退会持续多久，会有多深？你问我，有多少人将失去工作？多少需求将被摧毁？还会有多少成年男性搬回父母家？这是一个非常难回答的问题。以一年前玛丽·巴里斯说她要坚持立场为例，当她的竞争对手开始实行激励定价时，她的坚定立场也只持续了那么长时间，因为除非你愿意简单地卖出较少数量，否则你必须跟随他们走进那个死胡同。

Paragraph 5: Ford Motor is an interesting case study right now. They're trying very hard to be EV compliant because they want to get their hands on all these low in the government that are cheaper than they otherwise would be. But every time they do this, they're having to like, we just cut off, we just fired more engineers. We just fired more salaried workers. You know, I mean, I wouldn't want to be like at a foreign downtown deer board today at all, because of the steady drumbeat of layoffs. And I think we're going to increasingly see this. A lot of people, and maybe it's my age, a lot of people have no intention of ever buying an EV. But my point is we are going into a very, their car loans with 125, 140% loan devalue ratios never existed. Used car loans never, ever. And you're seeing it. This is COTS data. And you're actually seeing the same phenomenon on the used cars. I'd your average used cars got 104, 105% loan value ratio. It's just extraordinary.

福特汽车现在是一个有趣的案例研究。他们正在努力成为电动车合规的公司，因为他们希望能以比原来更便宜的价格购得政府提供的所有低排放车辆。但是每次他们这样做时，他们都不得不解雇更多的工程师和薪水员工。你知道的，我是说，我真不想在今天参加外资公司的董事会，因为我们会不断听到裁员的消息。我认为我们将越来越多地看到这种情况。很多人，也许是因为我年纪大了，根本没有购买电动车的打算。但我的观点是，我们正在进入一个非常困难的时期，汽车贷款的贷款价值比例达到了125%、140%，这在过去是从未有过的。二手车贷款也是如此。这是官方数据。而且你在二手车市场上也能看到同样的现象，平均二手车的贷款价值比例高达104%、105%，真是不可思议。

Paragraph 1: I mean, your average new car buyer comes in upside down anyways, especially from my home state of Texas, where we come, Texas is like, whoo, for the most upside down car buyers on the planet. It's always been number 51. Is that so? Oh, yeah. Texas loves to live beyond their wall. Well, about what they do. Well, it's all trucks and stuff. So I guess it doesn't surprise me that much. And these trucks are costing like $60,000 plus nowadays. Plus, more McLarens are sold in the city of Dallas and then they're sitting on the planet. People are like, show off in Texas. They like to afford.

我的意思是，普通的新车买家本来就是负债的，特别是来自我的家乡德克萨斯州的人，德克萨斯是全球最多负债汽车买家的地方。它一直排名第51位，这么说是真的吗？哦，是的。德克萨斯人喜欢过着墙外的生活。他们喜欢的东西就是卡车之类的。所以我也不太惊讶。现在这些卡车的价格超过了6万美元。此外，达拉斯市销售的麦克拉伦超跑数量超过了全球其他地方的总和。德克萨斯人喜欢炫耀，他们喜欢过得有面子。

Paragraph 2: But you sent out, I think, the most telling of all statistics, you know, it's not a small hiccup to go from 500,000 to 400,000 auctions. Cars bought an auction. Oh, that was an auction. That was actually a, it's a peer to peer, a dealer to dealer marketplace. Yes. Whatever it was, it was naked. And that means that what the dealers are seeing on the ground is demand being destroyed and a lack of financing. Yeah, I think lack of financing is the biggest one. I think that's, well, it's also inventory. I would say both of them. But like margins are holding strong. Margins are great. Arguably, they're even a little bit better, arguably.

但你发出的，我认为，最具有说服力的统计数据，你知道，从50万辆汽车拍卖到40万辆，并不是个小问题。哦，那是一个拍卖会。实际上，那是一个点对点、经销商之间的市场。是的。无论是什么，都是赤裸裸的。这意味着经销商们在现场看到需求被破坏，缺乏融资。是的，我认为融资不足是最大的问题。我认为，这也是库存问题。我会说两者都是。但利润空间保持稳定。利润空间很好。可以说，它们甚至略微更好，可以这么说。

Paragraph 3: But the problem you're running to, it's sort of a, it's sort of a survivorship bias, though, because if I sold all the cars that I did not sell because the margin was not there because their financing was so trash and not competitive, then my margins would be lower. So it's, it's not really accurate because you have that survivorship bias where you're just selling a lot less cars. And then what you are selling is holding its margin. And again, I want to be very clear. Like this is not new car.

但你所遇到的问题，可以说是一种存活偏差，因为如果我卖掉了所有由于利润空间不足而没有卖出的汽车，因为它们的融资非常差，竞争力不强，那么我的利润率就会更低。所以这种观点并不准确，因为你有这种存活偏差，所以你卖出的汽车更少。而你正在销售的汽车保持了其利润率。再次强调，这不是指新车。

Paragraph 4: Like new car, especially the Japanese companies are just killing it. It's like 2021 still. They are flooded with business. They have no supply. And everyone in their mother wants to drive, you know, whatever, like a Toyota. It's when it's starting, we're seeing most of it on the luxury side on the more expensive vehicles. Also on the vehicles that just don't have the type of demand that these, you know, bread and butter Japanese do. So like Jeeps, they have crazy incentives that are continuing rising and stuff like that. But again, it's just very important that, you know, my goal is I want to share like very transparent view of the market. And it is, I call it like a tale of two markets right now because if you go to Toyota dealership, those salespeople are super happy. They're still getting their markups. Now, try going to a Jeep dealership. It's a very different story.

就像新车一样，尤其是日本公司，简直大红大紫。感觉就像还是2021年一样。他们的业务都水涨船高。供不应求。每个人都想开着丰田车之类的。我们看到的大部分情况是奢侈品市场以及更贵的车型上出现了这种情况。还有那些并没有像日本车那样大牌子的车型。像Jeeps，他们一直在提高价格并提供疯狂的激励措施之类的。但是，非常重要的一点是，我希望给大家展示一个非常透明的市场情况。现在的车市就像是两个市场的故事，如果你去丰田经销商，销售人员会非常开心，他们仍然可以保持高额利润。现在试试去Jeep经销商，情况就会完全不同了。

Paragraph 5: No, absolutely. In fact, Cox runs a chart, you know, a few weeks that shows incentive spending by OEM and cheap. The tallest bar. In fact, I told a friend of mine, her. I walked her through negotiating for years Jeep Grand Cherokee had like 13,000 miles on it, something barely anything. She got it for a song lump. I'm like, just tell the girl you're going to go by go by new. There's lots of incentives. Scared the tar to the guy in the used car lot. And I'm like, and take the financing and then pay it off tomorrow. Oh, Danielle, you're bad. I have never, I have never financed a car in my life.

不，绝对不是。实际上，科克斯有一张图表，你知道，几周显示了原始设备制造商和廉价设备的激励支出情况。那个最高的柱形图。实际上，我告诉一个朋友，她。我给她讲解了如何协商购买一辆拥有大约13,000英里里程的Jeep Grand Cherokee，几乎没有什么问题。她以很低的价格买到了它。我说，告诉那个销售员你打算买一辆新车。有很多激励措施。那个家伙在二手车场吓坏了。我说，然后使用分期付款，明天就把它还清。哦，Danielle，你太坏了。我这辈子从来没有贷款买车。

Paragraph 6: Tell me, tell me you mentioned earlier about, you mentioned about a fat hikes. So, you know, some things that we're seeing more specifically, again, on the use side. Definitely on the new side right now. But we saw that the used only chain of Echo Park stores just closed, like, I think, seven, eight, nine locations. Earlier in this year, we saw American car center and another company called US auto sales shut down. Those reasons were for, you know, one of them failed to securitize their auto loans. Another one failed to maintain their inventory floor plan. All roads sort of seemed like it leads back to interest rates. In a way, again, I could also make the argument for the use car stores.

告诉我，告诉我你之前提到过的，你提到过一个大幅度的增长。所以，你知道，有些事情我们特别是在使用方面看到的。目前确实在新方面也有不少情况。但我们看到了Echo Park的二手车连锁店刚刚关闭了，好像是七八九个分店。今年初，我们看到了美国车中心和另外一家叫做US auto sales的公司也关闭了。其原因是，其中一家未能确保其汽车贷款的证券化，另一家则未能维持其库存平面图。从某种意义上说，所有的问题似乎都与利率有关。而且，我也可以为二手车店提出相同的观点。

Paragraph 1: And I think it's going to be a very close with all that said, what do you think is next for interest rates? I know you mentioned like the term higher for longer. Well, what is what do you think is going to happen next? Where are we heading from here?

我认为这个问题将非常棘手，所有这一切都说完了，你认为接下来的利率会怎样？我知道你提到了“长期较高”。那么，你认为接下来会发生什么？我们会朝何方发展？

Paragraph 2: So I think barring Armageddon with the next jobs report, we definitely see another quarter percentage point hike at the end of July. And then I think it really becomes data dependent. To see if we see a subsequent one in September, but the key is the Fed intends to continue shrinking its balance sheet. And that really speaks to, you can't do one. You can't shrink your balance sheet. You can't run this quantitative tightening policy. While you're lowering interest rates. Doesn't work. Why? You can't tighten and ease at the same time. They're inherently conflicting policy levers. Either you're in a tightening stance or you're in a loosening stance. You can't be both at the same time. Then you're like, you've got multiple personality disorder. Got it. So pretty much you're saying like you're not like you're not really. chattling towards like a targeted outcome. Like if you were to do that, it doesn't even make sense. You're saying no, it makes no sense at all.

所以我认为除非下次的就业报告带来了世界末日，否则我们肯定会在七月底再次加息百分之一刻。然后我认为，接下来就要看数据了，要看九月份是否会有进一步的加息。但关键是美联储打算继续缩减其资产负债表。这实际上说明，你不能仅仅做一项操作，即在降息的同时收缩资产负债表是行不通的。为什么？因为你不能同时进行紧缩和宽松的操作。它们是本质上相互冲突的政策杠杆手段。要么你采取紧缩立场，要么你采取放松立场，不能同时两者都进行。否则你看起来就像有多重人格障碍。明白了。所以基本上你的意思是你并不是在追求特定的结果。如果你这样做，根本没有意义。你的意思是，不，根本没有任何意义。

Paragraph 3: But the minutes from the June meeting reiterated today, we have every intention to plow forward with plans to reduce our balance sheet, which means that's that Fed code speak for. We're going to get them up to five and a quarter, maybe five and a half percent on the overnight rate and they're going to stay there for a long time. Yeah, I think we. I just think we can all debate, you know, what's going to happen for a long time to future. That happens. They have to back off. Yeah. Pretty simple.

但是6月份会议的会议记录重申，我们有意继续推进减少资产负债表的计划，这意味着这是美联储的代号，也就是说，我们打算将隔夜利率提高到5.25%甚至5.5%，并且将会保持在这个水平上很长一段时间。是的，我认为我们可以一直就未来会发生什么进行辩论。当发生那种情况时，他们必须退缩。是的，非常简单明了。

Paragraph 4: But again, I never in a million years thought that the stock market wouldn't perceive the fastest run rate of chapter 11 filing since 2009 is not being a bad thing. But yet, as long as the stock market is up, as far as J. Cowell's concerned, he's got license to continue tightening policy or at least keep policy tight.

然而，我千万没有想到股市会对自2009年以来最快的第11章申请的增长速度不视为一件坏事。但是，只要股市保持上涨，对于J. Cowell来说，他就有权继续收紧政策，或者至少保持政策的紧缩。

Paragraph 5: I think the most important question that I've been waiting to ask you this entire time is what would you need to see to change your mind. Right. What data, what indicators would you need to see to come back on this podcast and give me the entire just do a complete 180. So I think I would need to see a spike in the unemployment rate, which given it how corrupted the official data is right now. I'll be surprised to see that. But I would need to see a spike in the unemployment rate or I would need to see some stop gap measure, not come through for these student loan repayments. If that really happens come October, watch out.

我想我一直等着问你的最重要的问题是，你需要看到什么才能改变你的想法。对。你需要看到什么数据、什么指标，才能回到这个播客中，彻底改变立场。所以我认为我需要看到失业率飙升，鉴于目前官方数据的篡改程度，如果真的看到这一点，我会感到惊讶。但我也需要看到一些权宜之计无法解决这些学生贷款偿还问题。如果真的发生在十月份，那就小心了。

Paragraph 6: No Christmas. No stop gap measure, no spike in unemployment rate. If we were to see the markets fall out of the credit markets fall out of it. Something really bad happening. Like what, what caused Powell to pivot. The last time he did was the no junk bond were sold for a record 41 days in a row. That caused a pivot. That is a complete freezing up of your financial system. That means credit. When was that? When was that? It began November the 14th, 2018 on Halloween, 2018, October the 31st, 2018, the death of general electric was downgraded by Moody. And all hell broke loose. Why? No, we're how we have the most over leveraged corporate sector on the planet. And it looked like that was the aha moment. If you're if you're going to stop issuing debt in a system that requires constant issuance of debt, it's called a part of these things. I mean, we should. I'd say whatever I like. I'm the boss. But if you ever stop issuing the debt, replace the debt, game over. And Powell had to pivot.

没有圣诞节。没有权宜之计，也不会出现失业率的激增。如果市场崩溃了，信贷市场也随之崩溃，那就意味着发生了非常严重的事情。什么样的事情会导致鲍威尔转变立场呢？上次他转变立场是因为连续41天没有售出垃圾债券，这造成了转变。这意味着金融系统完全冻结，信贷中断。那是在什么时候？何时开始的？它开始于2018年11月14日，也是在2018年的万圣节，也就是2018年10月31日，当时穆迪将通用电气的评级下调，一切陷入混乱。为什么？因为我们拥有全球杠杆率最高的企业部门，似乎那是一个重要时刻的启示。如果你停止发行债务，而这个系统又需要不断发行债务，那就等于游戏结束了。我是老板，我可以说我喜欢的任何话。但是如果你停止发行债务并替代债务，那就完蛋了。鲍威尔不得不改变立场。

Paragraph 7: Now, that hadn't happened yet. We haven't woken up to see, you know, the largest to hide high yield exchange traded fund in the world is no longer taking redemption. And it's not just a thing like that. So far, the term that I use with the most regularity is it's a controlled demolition, which is reflected in the stock market. And as long as that's the case, as long as nothing really breaks, he can he can maintain higher for longer. So you think as a dealer, you think I should expect my floor plan line to be a little bit higher for a little bit longer at the minimum.

现在，这种情况尚未发生。我们还未醒来意识到，你知道的，世界上最大的高收益交易基金已经停止了赎回。而且不仅仅是这样。到目前为止，我最经常使用的词是“有序拆除”，这在股市中体现出来。只要这种情况持续存在，只要没有真正的崩盘发生，他就能够保持更高的水平更长的时间。所以作为一名交易商，你认为我应该期待我的底线水平在最低限度上会持续升高一段时间。

Paragraph 1: So I think that the as prudent as you possibly could be. Okay. And your inventory for the love of God, move your inventory, always always prudent advice there. I'm not going to argue with that one. Expect rates to be a bit higher.

所以我认为你应该尽可能谨慎。好的。当谈到你的库存时，天哪，移动你的库存，总是要谨慎。我不会反对这个建议。预计利率会稍微高一些。

Paragraph 2: Friend who watched some Tahoe used Tahoe sit on a lot for 120 days. Yeah, it's. Look, I think people have gotten more efficient. If you just look at the auto just, you know, inventory analytic software. You know, days on days in stock has come down. I don't know. I don't have exact numbers. And also, you know, turn time is. You need to have. Yeah, you got to move the cars. Yeah. And then as a consumer, I guess, you know, be similar type of advice.

我有个朋友在一个停车场里看到一些凯罗拉（Tahoe）车停放了120天。是的，确实如此。看，我觉得人们已经变得更有效率了。只需看看汽车库存分析软件，就可以明白。我不清楚具体数字。而且，库存周转时间也有所改进。你需要有。是的，你得卖出这些车子。对于消费者来说，我想这也是类似的建议。

Paragraph 3: You know, you're basically be on what you're saying is don't expect rates to come down on financing that vehicle. But potentially you're thinking that we're going to see more incentives prices will come down. Yeah, I think so. I mean, look at what the home builders are doing. You know, you can, you can get into a mortgage for three and a half, one half percent with a new home builder. They're buying down the rate. A lot. Wow. I should have known them. And that's, you know, but they're keeping prices high. Yeah. So if you start to see more zero percent financing, but prices not come down much. You know, God help those buyers.

你知道，你的意思基本上是不要指望购车贷款利率下降。但是你可能认为我们可能会看到更多的优惠，价格会下降。是的，我认为是这样。我是说，看看房地产开发商在做什么。你知道，你可以通过与新房地产开发商贷款来支付百分之三点五。他们降低了许多利率。哇，我本应该了解这些的。但是，他们仍然保持价格高。是的。所以，如果你开始看到更多的零利率融资，但是价格没有太大下降。那些买家可真是可怜了。

Paragraph 4: What's the best signal you're seeing right now? If we can, you know, call it best. And what's the worst signal? I kind of want to juxtapose this before we wrap up here. So what are you seeing that you're saying? Okay, this is a glimpse of hope versus what concerns me the most.

你目前看到的最好的信号是什么？如果可以称之为最好的话。而最差的信号又是什么？在我们结束之前，我想对比一下这两者。所以你现在看到了什么让你感到希望的迹象，又有什么让你最担心的事情。

Paragraph 5: So the glimpse of hope is it really a glimpse of hope as much as it is. There is a huge IRS run program called the employee retention credit. Get refunds.com innovation tags. It's pumping about June set a record 28.8 billion in one month. To put that in perspective, your food stamp program is about 10 billion. So it's pumping in the month of June, which was a record of pumped about three times as much money into the economy as the entire federal food stamp program. Going into the hands of well to do. It's supporting, especially international travel. So your planes to Paris and London are full. Because a lot of this money is being spent. It's a massive, far-fysical stimulus. Oh, interesting. Levitating the US economy. I mean, this has been going on since July of 2020. Humping billions and billions and people always talking, you know, there's this hand up between good spending and services spending. Well, I can tell you why. It's Uncle Sam's still writing some pretty big checks and the IRS doesn't know what to do because now people who don't qualify. Everybody's filing claims. People are forming businesses to file claims. Yeah, I get I get these emails every single day. It's just spam at this point. It's crazy. But what do you get $20 billion in the month of June? There's a lot of money. So that is really helping to support consumption in America in a big way. But at the end of the month, you're not receiving end of this. Your life's getting a lot more painful. And that's why you're reading more and more about the middle getting squeezed. Because they're the ones getting hurt the most because their car insurance is. I mean, just we just change car insurance companies because we put a night, our 19 year old boy on it. Oh, excuse me, our car insurance company dropped us. Wait, just add to go get new car insurance because we had an 19 year old or a policy. Those in the middle are really getting squeezed as long as they keep the slush fund up and running. It's going to help prop up consumption. Is it real? No.

因此，所谓的希望只是一个真实的希望的一瞥。有一个名为雇员保留税收抵免的大型IRS管理计划。它在一个月内创下了创纪录的每年288亿美元。以此来看，你们的食品券计划大约是100亿美元。所以在六月份，它将创下的纪录是每年投入到经济中的联邦食品券计划的三倍。这些资金主要流向富人手中，尤其是国际旅行。所以巴黎和伦敦的飞机飞满了。因为有很多钱被花掉了。这是一种巨大的、实质性的刺激。很有趣的是，美国经济从2020年7月以来一直处于飞速增长。投入了数十亿美元，人们总是在讨论好的支出和服务支出之间的平衡。我可以告诉你为什么。因为联邦政府仍然发放了一些相当大额的支票，而税务局不知道该怎么办，因为如今没有资格的人都在申请。人们甚至成立公司来申请。是的，我每天都收到这些垃圾邮件。这真的太疯狂了。但是，六月份获得200亿美元，这是一大笔钱。因此，这在很大程度上有助于支撑美国的消费。但是在月底，你们并没有受益。你们的生活变得更加痛苦。这就是为什么你们越来越多地听到中产阶级面临挤压的新闻了。因为他们受到的伤害最严重，他们的汽车保险。我是说，因为我们把19岁的孩子加入保险，我们刚刚换了保险公司。哦，对不起，是我们的保险公司取消了我们的保险。所以我们只能换新的汽车保险，因为我们有一个19岁以下的保单。在这个中产阶级中，他们真的受到了很大的挤压，只要他们保持这个摇钱树的运转。它将有助于支撑消费。它是真实存在的吗？不是的。

Paragraph 6: And then talk to me about the second part, which is like, what's what's the biggest concern or most concerning indicator that you're following. So in September of 2022. So last September, there was not a single state out of. The 50 plus Washington DC. Every state in the nation had declining continuing with jobless claims. You're a very that's what you want to see. We have fewer people collecting an appointment. Great. Wonderful. Now we have five states that are still down year over year. 91% of the US population. However, as of June lives in a state with rising continuing jobless claims year over year. And the biggest states are the highest up on that list like California and Texas. Most popular state. So. 91% of the US population is living in a state with rising continuing jobless claimants. That's, and it's been going on for three months in a row. And I'm just going to tell you, one month does not make a trend. Three months does. So we've got that going for us.

然后跟我讨论第二部分，也就是最大的担忧或者你正在关注的最令人担忧的指标是什么。所以在2022年9月，也就是去年9月，除了华盛顿特区以外，全国50个州没有一个州的失业救济申领人数在减少。这是一个非常值得关注的现象。我们希望能看到更少的人申领失业救济金，这很好。现在有5个州的失业救济金申领人数依然在同比下降。然而，截至6月，美国91%的人口居住在同比上升的州。其中，像加利福尼亚和德克萨斯这样的大州最为突出。虽然只有91%的美国人口生活在同比上升的州，但这种情况已经持续了三个月。我要告诉你的是，一个月不能形成趋势，三个月可以。所以我们目前处于这样的情况。

Paragraph 1: I like to do a side. This has been fun. I can't say that the content is too much fun because it's never, you know, it's, we definitely want things to go well, but.

我喜欢做这个工作。这是很有趣的。我不能说内容太有趣，因为你知道，我们肯定希望事情顺利进行，但是。

Paragraph 2: It seems like you really, you really think we're about to take some medicine. That's for sure. You're, you're giving the future survivors the right guidance and that's what's important. Right. Lift tell your, look, you're much younger than I am, but, but the whole idea is live to tell. Horn your business through scenario analyses, plural, and make sure you come out on the other end and watch your competitors go away and know that, you know, when we come into recovery, you're going to be that much stronger. I might have to call you for some card negotiating advice.

看起来你真的，你真的认为我们即将接受药物。那是肯定的。你为未来的幸存者提供了正确的指导，这才是最重要的。没错。告诉你，你比我年轻得多，但总的来说，活下来才是最重要的。通过多种场景的分析来磨砺你的业务，确保你在最后脱颖而出，看着你的竞争对手离开，并且知道，当我们走出困境时，你会变得更强大。也许我得给你打个电话，取一些关于卡片谈判的建议。

Paragraph 3: Yeah, it's pretty simple for me. Take the financing, get the price lower, add up the next day. There you go. All the alpha you need. David, this has been awesome. Where can, where can the audience learn more about you and QI intelligence? So come to dmartino booth.substack.com or follow me on Twitter at dmartino booth or Google QI research. Many ways to find me, but love to have you read my research. We get deep down in the weeds. We look at all kinds of data sets that a lot of people don't. Every single day we publish 13 times a week and I'd love to have, love to have some of your listeners come on and join me.

是的，对我来说很简单。进行融资，降低价格，第二天加总起来。这样就可以获得所有你需要的收益。大卫，这真是太棒了。观众们可以在哪里了解更多关于你和QI Intelligence呢？请访问dmartino booth.substack.com，或者在Twitter上关注我的账号dmartino booth，或者搜索QI Research。有很多途径可以找到我，但是我希望你能阅读我的研究报告。我们深入研究各种数据集，很多人都没涉及过。我们每天发布13次，我很希望你的听众能够加入并与我一起交流。

Paragraph 4: I love it. Danielle, thanks so much for coming on. This has been great. Thank you. Thank you for having me. All right. Hope you enjoyed that episode. Please give the podcast a rating. Consider subscribing to the show and check the show notes for links to what we talked about. Thanks for tuning in. I'll see you guys next time.

我太喜欢了。Danielle，非常感谢你能来。非常好。谢谢你。谢谢你邀请我。好的。希望你喜欢这一集。请给这个播客评分。考虑订阅节目，并查看节目备注中我们谈论的链接。感谢收听。下次见。