Tesla Stock Downgraded, Cybertruck Details, Giga Mexico Rumor
发布时间 2023-06-27 08:40:50 来源
摘要
➤ TSLA stock downgraded by Goldman Sachs
➤ Deutsche Bank increases delivery estimates
➤ New Cybertruck details
➤ Highland rumors
➤ Giga Mexico report
➤ Spain may be out of factory race
➤ Tesla appears to dip toes into ads
➤ Musk comments on FSD
➤ Starship static fire
➤ Calendar
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Disclosure: Rob Maurer is long TSLA stock & derivatives
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中英文字稿 
We're running around by we're here for what may be the latest episode of Tesla Daily Ever. It's about 3.30 in the morning central time here. It's been a busy day to save the least. It's going to continue to be a really busy week again this week. So please bear with me for both this episode and for the rest of the week. But we do have a number of items to talk about here today, which we've got a Golden Zach's downgrade from Tesla stock.
我们正在忙碌地奔跑，因为我们可能正在录制特斯拉每日新闻的最新一集。现在是中央时间凌晨3:30分，这一天已经非常忙碌了，而这个星期还将继续非常忙碌。因此，请大家耐心等待本集和本周的其余部分。但是今天我们有许多话题要谈论，其中包括高盛扎克对特斯拉股票的降级。
We've got updates on Cybertruck, some rumors on Project Highland, Gigamexico, etc. So let's get right into it. Tesla today, I guess yesterday at this point on Monday was down 6%, closing at $241.05, the NASDAQ down about 1.1% on the day. But as we are moving into Tuesday here, looks like we're getting some nice pre-market action at least for now, up about a percent and a half. So we'll see if that carries through later today.
我们有一些关于Cybertruck、Project Highland、Gigamexico等方面的最新消息和传闻。现在就让我们来了解一下。周一，特斯拉股价下跌了6%，收于241.05美元，纳斯达克当天下跌约1.1%。但随着进入周二，至少从目前来看，我们似乎正在迎来一些不错的盘前交易，涨幅约为1.5%。因此我们将看看今天晚些时候是否能够继续保持这种趋势。
Getting to the downgrade though, so Golden Sachs, Anil's Mark Delaney, saying that quote, We're downgrading shares to neutral from by as we believe the stock now better reflects our positive long-term view of the company's growth positioning. And quote, while the primary reason for the change is that we think the market is now giving the stock more credit for its longer-term opportunities post the recent rally, we're also cognizant of the difficult environment for new vehicles that we think will continue to weigh on Tesla's automotive non-gap gross margin this year. So previously, their price target $185 per share, increasing that significantly now to $248 per share, but downgrading obviously to neutral as the stock sits right around that range.
然而，回到下调的原因，高盛集团的马克·德尼安（Mark Delaney）表示：“我们将股票评级从买入下调为中性，因为我们认为目前的股票价格更好地反映了公司长期增长定位的积极态度。”此外，他还说：“虽然这次变化的主要原因是，我们认为市场现在更加重视该公司最近上涨后的长期机遇，但我们也意识到，我们认为将继续对特斯拉的汽车非盈利总毛利率造成影响的新车环境仍然很困难。因此，之前的股价目标为每股185美元，现在将其大幅提高至每股248美元，但由于股票目前处于该范围内，因此显然需要将评级下调至中性。”
On the other hand, we did see a little bit of an increase in both estimates and price target from Deutsche Bank. They reiterated a buy rating, so no change in their rating, but not, you know, doing the in-vote move lately of increasing price target and downgrading the stock like we've seen now from Goldman and a couple of other analysts last week. But they have reiterated the buy rating $230 price target and upped their delivery forecast for the second quarter to $448,000 vehicles.
然而，我们确实看到了德意志银行的估值和价格目标略微上涨。他们重申了买入评级，评级没有变化，但并没有像我们上周从高盛和另外几名分析师那里看到的那样，提高价格目标和将股票的评级下调。但他们重申了230美元的买入评级价格目标，并将第二季度的交付预测提高到44.8万辆汽车。
So of course, as we head into the final week here in the second quarter, we're going to start hearing a little bit more about deliveries coming up on that probably this weekend, which we'll talk a little bit more about when we look at the calendar.
当然，进入第二季度的最后一周，我们将开始听到有关交付的消息，可能会在本周末公布，我们在查看日历时会再进一步讨论。
All right. So before we get into some of those rumors that I mentioned, we do have a fair amount of new details here on the Tesla Cybertruck. So it was out at the Peterson Auto Museum, as we can see in the background there. And a couple new details from that. Chris Blackmore on Twitter showing a photo of the truck bed with a little bit of extra storage space. So kind of what we see in, you know, most Tesla vehicles where you've got kind of that under trunk area, it looks like that will be persistent on the Cybertruck as well.
好的，那么在我们深入讨论我提到的那些谣言之前，我们确实有一些有关特斯拉Cybertruck的新细节。正如我们在背景中看到的一样，它正在彼得森汽车博物馆展出。其中有一些新的细节，克里斯·布莱克莫尔在Twitter上发布了一张卡车货箱的照片，显示出了一些额外的存储空间。所以就像在大多数特斯拉车辆上看到的那样，在Cybertruck上似乎也会有那种储物箱的区域。
So not only do you have a ton of storage there, you've got that under trunk area plus, of course, the frunk. So going to be again, continued to see, continue to be excited to see all the features that Tesla's packed in here, but nice to see a little bit of a sneak peek on one there. And then another one that we have seen previously, but a little bit more in action is the rear wheel steering apparently functioning here on this prototype. As you can see with the wheel pretty askew there as the vehicle makes the turn, I'll play the short clip here.
因此，你不仅有大量的存储空间，而且还有后备箱下面以及前备箱。我们将继续看到特斯拉所装载的所有功能，并且感到兴奋，但很高兴能在其中看到一些窃取的信息。另外一件我们之前看到的事情，但这个原型机更为实际，就是后轮转向的运作。你可以看到，车辆转弯时车轮相当歪斜，我会播放一个短片段。
And as you can see, pretty obvious and pretty tight turning radius from this video that was shared on on Reddit by RealPokePop. So great video there to show that feature off. And then the tonneau cover right here. Not sure who originally posted this video. I think this is on probably Gregor Trucks Twitter feed. You can see pretty hefty weight to the tonneau cover there and some smooth operation, obviously. You know, this is probably in very clean and ready to go conditions, things like that, but still kind of fun to see the tonneau cover in action.
您可以从RealPokePop在Reddit分享的视频中看到，车辆拥有非常明显而紧凑的转弯半径，这非常明显。这是一个很好的视频，可以展示这一功能。另外，我们还可以看到这里的行李箱盖。我不确定是谁最初发布了这个视频。我想这可能是Gregor Trucks的Twitter动态。您可以看到行李箱盖的重量非常重，并且操作非常顺畅。当然，这可能是车辆非常干净和准备好上路的情况，但看到行李箱盖还是非常有趣的。
And then lastly on the cyber truck list, as we had previously seen the opening for the trunk, some, you know, debate or conversations on that, pretty clearly in this photo from some of the New Zealand testing that this entire front area is opening up. So should be very easy to access that front trunk on the cyber truck.
最后，在这辆独特的电动皮卡车名单中，我们之前已经看到了特别的后备箱，一些人对它展开了争论和谈话，但从新西兰测试的照片上可以清晰地看到，整个前部空间都能打开。因此，在使用电动皮卡车时，很容易进入前置行李箱。
Moving into some rumors on high land. So of course these have been pretty rampant over the last couple of weeks, but we were on Twitter here saying that according to several Chinese media sources, the new Tesla Model 3 will be confirmed for release next month. Mass production will officially start in September and will launch volume deliveries in 2020 for so kind of an interesting update, you know, mix of timelines here confirmed for release.
有一些传言称，特斯拉将在高地上推出新款车型。当然，这些传言在过去几周里已经非常猖獗了，但我们在 Twitter 上看到，根据多个中国媒体消息来源称，新款特斯拉 Model 3 将在下个月正式发布。大规模生产将在9月正式启动，并在2020年推出批量交付。这是一个相当有趣的更新，你知道，将不同的时间线混在一起，确认发布。
I think the other interpretations that I've seen of this is, you know, sort of displayed or announced next month in July. That would still be obviously a couple of months potentially and maybe, you know, six weeks or so from the start of production, a sort of mass production rather in September. But we've had previous rumors that, you know, Tesla is maybe starting to spin up production before this.
我认为我看到的其他解释是，这将在下个月七月展示或公布。这可能需要几个月的时间，可能需要从生产开始的六周左右才会进行大规模生产。但我们之前有过传闻，特斯拉可能在此之前已经开始了生产。
So you know, it's tough to say. And then the difference between mass production and volume production, not 100% clear there either unless this is sort of commencing the towards mass production in September. But again, then what, what about the rumors of things happening in June? So things that are a little bit conflicting with each other, but I think in general with these kind of rumors being out there, people should prepare for probably a long time horizon still before we really see high land out there in mass.
你知道的，很难说清楚。而且批量生产和大规模生产的区别，也不是很清楚，除非9月份开始朝着大规模生产的方向进行。但是再说，6月份的传言怎么样呢？有些事情彼此有点冲突，但我认为一般来说，随着这些传言流传，人们应该准备好长期的目标，才能真正看到大量推出高地的情况。
And you know, it's kind of frustrating that it does take that long. But you know, this is obviously the first hopefully major revision for the Model 3 since it's introduction. So for it to be down for three to six months or something like that would probably beat, you know, the the s and the x refresh time, if that does end up being the case. And if that does end up being the case, it's probably a really good time for it to happen right now when there is probably some softness in the vehicle market with high interest rates, a lot of volatility in the economy and things like that.
你知道，等待那么久真的挺令人沮丧的。但是，这显然是Model 3自问世以来的第一次重大修订。所以，如果它停产三到六个月左右，可能会超过S和X车型的升级时间。如果真是这样，现在可能是很好的时机，因为目前汽车市场存在高利率、经济波动等问题。
So you know, if you got to pick a period where you're going to do that, one like this probably makes a pretty good sense with as minimal opportunity costs as as possible. And then we've got another rumor here kind of similar to what we've heard before shared by Berliner G on Twitter. This was coming from somewhere in China, but saying that the new Tesla Model 3 is basically this, the front is straightens a little more atmospheric.
如果你要选择一个时期来这样做，那么像这样的时期可能是有最少机会成本的一个不错的选择。另外我们在Twitter上看到了一个类似之前听到的传言，由Berlin G分享。这是来自中国的消息，但说新的特斯拉Model 3基本上就是这样，前面略微有些大气。
I'm not sure exactly what that adjective would mean, but they say the gear shift is really in the screen. So like we see in the refresh model, S and X, the suspension has been tuned for better handling a unibody die cast chassis as you use. That would be a pretty interesting update. The battery layout has been tweaked. And most importantly, the price remains the same. So you know, mostly stuff that we've heard before, I don't think we've heard potentially the unibody die casting, die casting chassis before, battery layout being tweaked tough to interpret what that would mean. And then the pricing, you know, we'd kind of heard from Tesla scope that they expected it to be in the similar range as before.
我不确定这个形容词的确切含义是什么，但他们说变速杆真的在屏幕上。就像我们在刷新的S和X型号中看到的那样，悬挂已经被调整以获得更好的操控性，一体型压铸底盘就像你所使用的一样。这将是一个相当有趣的更新。电池布局已经进行了微调。最重要的是，价格保持不变。因此，大部分都是我们以前听过的东西，我认为我们以前可能没有听过压铸一体化底盘或电池布局被微调，这些都很难解释意思。然后是价格，你知道，我们从特斯拉的范围来看，他们希望它在与以前相似的范围内。
And this would seem to be perhaps another source with similar information there. Thank you, John, for the super chat. I appreciate that. All right. So the Gigamexico rumors then we do have also out of China more rumors here. This is apparently from a media site called late post that has exclusively learned that the latest plan for the Gigamexico factory is for a typically completed input into production in the first quarter of 2025.
这似乎又是另一个提供类似信息的来源，谢谢你的超级聊天，John。我很感激。好的。所以关于Gigamexico的传闻，我们在中国也有更多的传闻。据称是一个叫"晚邮报"的媒体网站独家了解到，Gigamexico工厂的最新计划是在2025年第一季度完成并投入生产。
Sounds sounds like that's about one to two quarters behind original expectations. Again, like like we talked about Thailand, we've kind of seen timelines that have been a little bit all over the place, I think as Tesla probably works to get everything in place, there's been a lot of talk out of China about suppliers and how Tesla is wanting them to co-locate in Mexico, which obviously makes a lot of sense. And giving them deadlines to do that, otherwise be cut out of that supply chain.
听起来好像跟最初的预期相比，要延迟一到两个季度。和我们之前谈论泰国一样，时间表似乎有些混乱，我认为特斯拉正在努力让所有事情就位，中国也有很多讨论关于供应商，特斯拉希望他们一起到墨西哥，这显然很有意义。并给予厂商在规定期限内要达成要求，否则他们将被从供应链中剔除。
So I think that's probably where these things are coming from. And as much as I would like it to be earlier, my best guess is that there is probably some, you know, pretty strong basis in reality to the rumors that we're hearing here. But hopefully we'll get some more comments from, you know, Tesla on that on the Q2 call or somewhat, somewhat soon.
我认为这些事情可能正是由于这个原因而产生的。尽管我希望它能够更早一点出现，但我最好的猜测是我们所听到的谣言可能有一定的现实基础。但希望我们会从特斯拉那里得到更多的评论，在Q2电话会议上或者很快的某个时候。
So we're about probably three, four weeks out now from, from that Q2 call. And again, another rumor here, I know we've got a lot of rumors today, but this one is on a possible factory in Spain, Gigafactory in Spain. And apparently Tesla is pulled out of negotiations here. And the reason that they allegedly pulled out of negotiations was due to an internal leak that made Tesla very angry is what the report says here.
大概距离第二季度电话会议已经三到四个星期了。又有一条传言，我知道今天有很多传言，但这条是有关西班牙可能建设的超级工厂（Gigafactory）。据说，特斯拉已经退出了这项谈判。报告称，他们之所以退出谈判，是因为内部泄露事件让特斯拉非常生气。
So that seems like a pretty, I don't want to say like insignificant, but that would be, you know, a pretty devastating leak if that causes a potential, you know, $5 billion or factory or something like that, that could have been in your country to then go elsewhere. Wouldn't want to be in that situation as that leaker. But obviously there could be more to the story. Tesla could have decided to make a different decision anyway, kind of regardless of that. But interesting to see that report.
那看起来像是一个相当——我不想说不重要，但那可能是个相当破坏性的泄漏，如果导致潜在的五十亿美元或工厂逃离你的国家，那将是相当严重的。那个泄漏者肯定不想置身于那种境地。但显然还有更多的故事。无论如何，特斯拉可能会决定采取不同的决定。但看到这篇报道还是很有趣的。
Obviously, there's been a lot more focus on, you know, France and Italy in probably the last couple of weeks. And of course, India still remains in the conversation. So maybe not super surprising, but still interesting to see update there on Spain.
显然，最近几周人们更加关注法国和意大利，而印度仍然是讨论的焦点。所以西班牙的最新情况可能并不是特别令人惊讶，但仍然很有趣。
And the next year we've got an update from the Tesla Motors Club community. A user UK Northampton shared an interesting post here that it looks like when he was doing some googling about market share in the UK, that there was a sponsored link from Tesla and did some investigating and it looks like it is coming from Tesla. It's always a little bit hard to see, you know, this actually happened a few years ago, where people would actually advertise Tesla referral codes on Google. And it looked like it was coming from Tesla because it's like a Tesla.com link.
在接下来的一年，我们从特斯拉汽车俱乐部社区获得了更新。一位名为 UK Northampton 的用户在这里分享了一篇有趣的帖子，说他正在谷歌搜索英国的市场份额时，发现了一份特斯拉的赞助链接，并进行了一些调查，发现它确实是来自特斯拉。你知道，几年前人们会在谷歌上发布特斯拉推荐代码，这样很难看出它是否来自特斯拉，因为它看起来像是特斯拉的链接。
But not sure that's the case in this scenario. So if not, because it doesn't seem to be linking to a referral page or anything like that, it could be Tesla maybe starting to dip their toes a little bit into the advertising game, obviously very regionally and perhaps in sort of a test mode right now. But something to definitely keep an eye on. And if you are kind of in that region, you know, let me know if you're seeing anything similar.
但不确定在这种情况下是否是这样。如果不是，因为它似乎没有链接到推荐页面或类似的东西，可能是特斯拉开始稍微涉足广告领域，显然非常区域化，也许目前处于测试模式。但绝对值得关注。 如果你在那个地区，让我知道是否有类似的情况。
So this report here, obviously don't want to go too far based on one instance of it, but you know, something to keep an eye out for if other people are seeing something similar.
这份报告显然不能根据一个实例就做出过于远大的结论。但如果其他人也发现了类似的情况，我们需要密切关注。
And then the last couple of things here, Elon, early this morning, late overnight, whatever you want to call it, replying to whole Mars, talking about FSD beta 12 coming maybe later this year, which I'm not actually sure where this original comment is coming from. Maybe it's a Twitter space or something I missed. It's very possible right now.
然后这里还有最后几件事情，埃隆今天早些时候或深夜回复了有关火星的话题，并谈到FSD beta 12可能在今年晚些时候推出。我不知道这个原始评论来自哪里，也许是某个我错过的Twitter空间。但现在这种可能性是非常大的。
But Elon replying to that saying that version 12 won't be beta, which is exciting to hear, but also probably not super meaningless when we're on versions such as 11.4.4 or 11.3.6. Actually, it can be as many of those point releases as Tesla wants until we get to a true version 12. So although it sounds cool, I'm not putting a whole lot of of stock in that comment.
埃隆回了复述说版本12不会是测试版，听到这个让人很兴奋，但在我们使用版本11.4.4或11.3.6时，可能并没有很大意义。实际上，它可以是一个点版本，直到我们到达真正的版本12。因此，虽然听起来很酷，但我并不太相信这个评论。
And then we've also got an update here on SpaceX, just kind of wrap things up. We'll take a look at the calendar too. But SpaceX did do a static fire today, six engines static fire test of the next Starship. So ship 25, which, you know, exciting to see them start to make some more progress towards possible another orbital test flight, which Elon previously said in about six weeks, which we'll see on that timeline, but starting to see some action there, which is very exciting.
然后，我们在这里也有一则关于SpaceX的更新，来总结一下现状。我们也会看一下日历。但是今天，SpaceX进行了下一艘“星舰”的六个引擎静态点火测试。所以第25艘星舰，让人兴奋地看到他们朝着可能再次进行轨道测试飞行取得更多进展，而埃隆之前曾表示这将在六周内完成，对这个时间表我们拭目以待，开始看到一些行动，这非常令人兴奋。
So lastly, then just a quick look at the calendar. You can see here for this week, we talked about this on Friday, but we will have PCE coming up on Friday, this next Friday. And then as we head into the weekend, more importantly, we will have the Q2 delivery and production report. So later this week, I'll go through my estimates there for both production and deliveries. We should get those numbers probably early on Sunday.
最后，让我们快速地看一下日历。本周我们在周五已经谈过了，但接下来的星期五，我们将会有PCE发布。接着，我们将进入周末，更重要的是，我们将有Q2的交付和生产报告。所以，这个星期晚些时候，我会对生产和交付作出估计。我们可能会在周日早些时候获得这些数字。
Usually it comes out on the second of the month. So keep an eye out for that. It's going to be, it's always a little bit hectic with like Fourth of July and stuff like that, but I'll do my best to be available to, you know, do a live stream of those results as they come out as well.
通常它会在每个月的第二天发布。所以请留意它。由于有美国国庆节等等活动，这通常会有些忙碌。但我会尽力保持可用，以便在发布结果时进行直播。
So let's look forward to over the next couple of weeks. And that is where we'll leave it for tonight. All right. So thanks for sticking up, staying around with me. I guess probably most people are in Europe watching this right now, but if you are elsewhere, appreciate it. And again, this week might be a little bit crazy. I'm doing my best here. Doing my best. Keep trying to do my best, but any flexibility this week would be very much appreciated.
让我们期待接下来的几周吧。今晚就到这里吧。好的，感谢大家陪伴我到现在。可能大部分观众在欧洲，但如果你在其他地方观看，也感谢你。这周可能会有点疯狂，我会尽我所能。我会一直努力做到最好，但这周如果你能多一点灵活性，我会非常感激。
So hopefully we'll see you tomorrow. I'll do my best to try to do an episode tomorrow for I guess today, for the Tuesday, June 27th episode of Tesla Daily. In the meantime, you can also follow me on Twitter at Tesla podcast and hopefully we'll see you then. Bye. All right.
希望明天能看到你们。我会尽力在6月27日星期二的“特斯拉日报”节目中为今天做一集。同时，你也可以在Twitter上关注我的特斯拉播客账号，希望明天能再次见到你。拜拜。好的。