Keiretsu: Why Foreign Companies Struggle in Japan - YouTube
发布时间 2018-06-12 16:00:00 来源
中英文字稿 
Hi everyone, welcome back to Brand 2020. In this series, we examine Japan's attempt to brand itself, to project that brand image outside of Japan, and also inside to Japanese voters and to people who just live here.
大家好，欢迎回到《品牌2020》。在这个系列中，我们探讨日本企图打造自己的品牌形象，将其投射到日本境外以及国内的选民和居民中。我们将深入研究这个话题。
My guest today is David Russell, who is an author and a man about many different facets of how Japan works. David, welcome again. Thank you Tim. Glad to be back.
我今天的嘉宾是David Russell，他是一位作者，对于日本的众多领域都有所涉猎。David，欢迎你再次来到节目。谢谢Tim。很高兴回来。
Today I want to explore a little bit about K-detsu, the Japanese conglomerates that kind of in the past really molded and controlled how the Japanese economy worked. It's a little bit of a dead horse, but it's an issue that you examined a long time ago and quite a bit of depth.
今天，我想稍微探讨一下K-detsu，这些在过去实际上塑造和控制了日本经济工作方式的日本企业集团。虽然这已经是老生常谈的话题，但这是一个你很久以前就深入研究过的问题。
Yes I did. As a matter of fact, it was my very first published book and that goes back a long time. Maybe 25 years ago I did a book called K-detsu and it won all sorts of awards because at that time the K-detsu issue was a huge issue in US-Japan trade release. The structural impediments talks, right? Exactly. People trying to figure out why is this place so hard to crack? How come we've been knocking on the door? We're doing all of the things that the Japanese say we should do. We set up shop there, we hire people, we invest money and it just doesn't seem to work.
是的，事实上，那是我第一本发表的书，已经是很久以前的事了。大概25年前，我写了一本叫做K-detsu的书，因为当时美日贸易被K-detsu问题困扰，这本书赢得了各种奖项。这个K-detsu问题是结构性障碍谈判中的一个巨大问题，对吧？确切地说。人们试图弄清楚为什么这个地方如此难以打破？我们已经敲了那么久的门了，我们正在做日本人告诉我们应该做的事情。我们在那里设置店铺，雇用人员，投资资金，但看起来都不起作用。
So just to start from the beginning, what actually is a K-detsu? That's a good question Tim because K-detsu are not well understood. Even in Japan they're not well understood and overseas they're widely misunderstood and they have been misunderstood for decades. In general, a K-detsu is a group of independent companies. They share a single corporate governance structure in the sense that they have a meeting of the presidents of each of the top companies in a group and maybe once a month all the presidents will get together in what's called a shachokai. They have very often cross share holdings, not the way they used to, but they traditionally have share holdings of each other's shares.
首先，什么是K-detsu？这是个好问题，因为K-detsu没有很好地被理解。即使在日本，人们对它也不太了解，海外也对它存在广泛的误解，并且这种误解已经持续了数十年。一般来说，K-detsu是一群独立的公司，它们共享一个公司治理结构，即每个集团中的顶级公司的总裁将会在一个称为“社长会”的会议上见面，也许每个月总裁们都会聚在一起。它们往往会互相持有股权，虽然现在的方式跟以前不同，但它们传统上持有彼此的股份。
The big horizontal K-detsu always have a bank in the middle of this group and so they're very connected through economic connections as well as interlocking directorships or their personal relationships between the companies and that means it's more than just a sort of happenstance collection of companies. It becomes a real corporate group. It's a unique feature of the Japanese corporate economy isn't it? Or it wasn't one time? We like to think it's unique, it's not as unique as we would wish it. But it's not quite a monopoly either right? No, not at all. It's more like a vertical integration.
大型横向企业集团通常都有一家银行位于这个集团的中心，因此他们通过经济联系以及交叉任职或公司之间的个人关系十分紧密，这意味着它不仅仅是一群凑巧聚集在一起的公司，而是一个真正的企业集团。这是日本企业经济中的独特特征，不是吗？或者说曾经是吗？我们认为它很独特，但它并不像我们期望的那样独一无二。但它也不是垄断，对吧？不，完全不是。它更像是垂直整合。
It depends. There are different kinds of K-detsu. First of all they're horizontal K-detsu, which I just mentioned, horizontal K-detsu used to be six big ones. They all had a bank at the center and then there would be trading companies and mining companies and metal companies and various companies in the group around the bank and they look like a giant solar system. And then there are vertical K-detsu where individual members of those horizontal K-detsu that were involved in manufacturing. So think of the auto companies, the camera companies, the electronics companies. Underneath each one of those major companies in the horizontal K-detsu there would be a manufacturing, a vertical K-detsu that could go down anywhere from 5,000 to 30,000 companies. So each of those vertical K-detsu was part of a big horizontal K-detsu. We're talking about a huge chunk of the Japanese economy.
这要看情况而定。K组织有不同类型，首先是水平型K组织，我刚才提到了它们，水平型K组织曾经是六个大的组织。它们的中心通常有一个银行，周围有交易公司、采矿公司、金属公司和其他公司，就像一个巨大的太阳系一样。然后，还有垂直型K组织，其中包括那些参与制造业的水平型K组织的个别成员，例如汽车公司、相机公司和电子公司。在水平型K组织的每个主要公司下面，都会有一个可以涵盖从5,000到30,000家公司的垂直型K组织。所以，每个垂直型K组织都是一个大型水平型K组织的一部分。这组织是日本经济的一个巨大部分。
Where did this start? I mean it seems to be something that feels very Japanese when you, like you and I, we've talked about this endlessly for many, many years. The US government has kind of struggled with how to deal with it. Eventually it became out of favor. It was basically outlawed and now we have a different situation. But where did this concept or this kind of design actually emanate?
这是从哪里开始的?我的意思是，当你我像我们这样，已经不断地谈论了多年，这似乎是一些感觉非常日本的东西。美国政府一直在努力应对它，最终它失宠了。它基本上被禁止了，现在我们有了不同的情况。但是这个概念或这种设计实际上是从哪里来的呢？
Well it's fascinating. In one sense the K-detsu were created by the US government and most people don't look at it that way. But the fact is if you go back in history, the K-detsu, it's always said the K-detsu evolved from the old Zai-Batsu. And without going into a long historical explanation, the Zai-Batsu were 19th century conglomerations of businesses that all were started owned by one family. They were family oriented. Where did that idea come from? They just copied it from the US and Europe. They wanted to have Rockefeller style businesses and Morgan and Carnegie style businesses in Japan. And the government liked that idea because it looked like a good way to catch up with the West. So the government was not in the antitrust business in the 19th century.
这很有意思。从某种意义上说，K-detsu是由美国政府创造的，大多数人并没有这样的看法。但事实是，如果你回到历史上，就会发现K-detsu总是被认为是从旧的财阀演变而来。不过，我们不用详细讲解历史，财阀是19世纪由一个家族创立并拥有的企业集团。他们有家族意识。这个想法从哪里来的呢？他们只是从美国和欧洲复制而来。他们想在日本建立洛克菲勒式的企业，以及摩根和卡内基式的企业。政府喜欢这个想法，因为看起来这是追赶西方的好方法。那时候，政府并不打算反垄断。
Okay, you want to put together a bunch of companies, you want money, we'll loan you money, build up an industrial combine, that's great. We think that's terrific. We'll look more and more like the Western countries we're trying to catch up with.
好的，你想把一堆公司集合起来，需要钱，我们将会为你提供贷款，打造出一个工业联合体，这太好了。我们认为这非常棒。我们将会越来越像我们正在追赶的西方国家。
Long story short, the Zai-Batsu grew and grew and grew and they grew more powerful to the point where in World War II they completely control Japanese industry. And again, the government helped them to take over of the industry. Absolutely.
长话短说，企业集团不断壮大并变得越来越强大，到第二次世界大战时它们已经完全控制了日本的工业。政府再次帮助它们接管了工业。毫无疑问。
They had many, many politicians in their pocket. And this became a big point of contention within the government and within other parties in Japan that were not happy with the Zai-Batsu, including the military. But again, long story short, the war ends. They were in the Gulf and the endscap come over here.
他们掌握了许多政客的利益。这成为了政府以及其他不满于财阀（包括军队）的政党内部的争议点。但长话短说，战争结束了。他们在波斯湾，战争结束回到这里。
And what happens? They see the Zai-Batsu as one of the key factors leading up to the war. Your fault. Right. It's the fault of the Zai-Batsu. Really one of the key players that supported the military in their imperialistic drive overseas. So by definition, the Zai-Batsu are bad and we have to get rid of them. Right.
然后发生了什么？他们认为财阀是导致战争的重要因素之一。这是你们的错。没错，这是财阀的错。他们是军方帝国主义推进的主要支持者之一。因此，从定义上来说，财阀是不好的，我们必须摆脱他们。没错。
But they lost a little bit of their energy, didn't they, halfway through? They got rid of some of the larger ones and then the Korean wars heated up? Yeah.
他们在中途失去了一点能量，是吗？他们除掉了一些较大的问题，然后朝鲜战争加剧了吗？是的。
What happened is they banned the Zai-Batsu. In fact, during the war years, the Zai-Batsu had already become so much out of favor with the military that it were already changing their names. So for example, the big Zai-Batsu banks no longer used their real names.
发生的事情是他们禁止了财阀。事实上，在战争年代，军方已经开始对财阀不满了，他们甚至开始改变他们的名字。例如，大型财阀银行不再使用他们的真实名称。
Mitsubishi Bank became Chioda Bank, things like that. These policies continued. The general headquarters, the occupation forces literally banned the use of the Zai-Batsu names. They squashed all the big Zai-Batsu companies. Some of the biggest ones were the trading companies. Good example. Mitsubishi, shouji, the big trading. Still in existence.
三菱银行变成了千代田银行，类似的政策一直延续下去。总部，占领军直接禁止使用财阀名称。他们压制了所有大的财阀公司，其中一些最大的是贸易公司，三菱、日商等大型贸易公司仍在存在。
But what happened is it was like hitting a giant blob of mercury. They broke up Mitsubishi trading into 170 different companies. And within a few years, all those little pieces of mercury started coming together like the Terminator growing again. All of a sudden, the blob got bigger and bigger. By 1952, the year the occupation basically packed up and went home, there were only four companies of the old Mitsubishi group together.
但是发生的事情就像是撞上了一个巨大的水银团块。他们将三菱贸易分拆成了170个不同的公司。几年内，这些小小的水银碎片像终结者一样重新聚合在一起。突然间，这个团块变得越来越大。到1952年，占领基本上已经收拾行李回家那一年，只有四家老三菱集团的公司在一起。
And of those four companies, basically within a year, they all merged and they called themselves Mitsubishi shouji. It's right back where they started.
这四家公司中的所有公司基本上在一年内都合并了起来，他们称自己为三菱商事。他们回到了起点。
So yes, the occupation did a terrific job for a very short time in trying to break up the Zai-Batsu. And they passed all sorts of laws saying, we should not have too much economic concentration. The year after the occupation goes home, they're passing new laws trying to promote economic concentration in various industries. Sure.
是的，占领时期曾经做了一个非常出色的工作，试图瓦解财阀集团。他们通过了各种法律，说我们不应该有太多的经济集中。占领结束的那一年，他们就通过了新的法律，试图促进各个行业的经济集中。当然。
Well, Japan was still pretty much on its knees at that point. They needed an engine to kind of get things going. The Korean War was kind of in full swing. Exactly. And a lot of material was not a fan.
嗯，那时日本经济还很不景气。他们需要一个引擎来推动经济起飞。而当时朝鲜战争正在全面爆发。确实是这样。然而很多物资都不支持他们。
There was, well, you remember those days clearly. But there was a lot of concern in Washington that after the Communist Revolution in China, that Asia was ripe to go red. People were terrified. And we need Japan as a bulwark against communism spreading.
当年，你清楚地记得那段时光。在中国共产主义革命后，华盛顿很担心亚洲会疯狂走向红色。人们恐惧不已。我们需要日本作为针对共产主义扩散的堡垒。
And so we've already got a good foothold in Japan. We basically controlled their government. We wrote their constitution. Let's make sure that Japan never slips into the Communist arena. So what do we do? We start unwinding some of those overly zealous anti-trust laws that we had and the anti-monopoly laws. Maybe we were just, we went a little overboard on that. And so gradually, well, not so gradually, really, they started unwind a lot of what MacArthur's people had done in 1947.
那么我们已经在日本建立了良好的立足点。我们基本上控制了他们的政府，书写了他们的宪法。让我们确保日本永远不会滑入共产主义阵营。那么我们怎么办呢？我们开始放松一些过于热衷于反垄断法和反垄断法。也许我们只是有些过分了。因此逐渐地，不是那么缓慢地，他们开始解决1947年麦克阿瑟领导的人们所做的很多事情。
By 1951, it was already starting to come apart. And the Japanese got the message very clearly. What you're telling us not to explicitly is it's okay to reform the Zayabats. And so that's just what they did. The groups came back together. They brought out their old names. Once the occupation packed up and went home, they said, Hey, you know, we're a company that did trading in the old days as Mitsubishi Shoji. Now we're going to call ourselves Mitsubishi Shoji.
在1951年，那已经开始分裂了。而日本人非常清楚你所不明说的意思，那就是改革财阀是可以的。于是，他们就这么做了。这些集团重新联合在一起，并拿出了他们旧的名称。当占领结束后，他们说：“你们知道吗，在过去我们是一个名叫三菱商事的公司做贸易的，现在我们要叫自己为三菱商事。”
Come on, let's get back together. All the other companies in the group say, Hey, we can use our old names. The group's using its old name. The bank is using its old name. Hey, it's the same old guys. Let's all get back together again. We are an independent country once again. We can create the laws. We can make the rules. Let's get back. Let's get business done.
来吧，让我们重新联合起来。集团中的其他公司都说，“嘿，我们可以使用旧名称”。集团正在使用其旧名称。银行正在使用其旧名称。嘿，这仍然是那些老朋友。让我们重新联合起来。我们再次成为了独立的国家。我们可以制定法律，制定规则。让我们重新联合起来，完成业务。
And so in that sense, the American occupation by its, let's say fair attitude, in that sense, or late in 1951, 1950, they allowed the cadets to encourage the cadets to grow. Again, the growth of the cadets, it was a key factor in the growth of the Japanese economy.
因此从这个意义上来说，美国占领军的公正态度在1951年或1950年晚期，允许了军校学员的鼓励和成长。再次强调，军校学员的成长是日本经济增长的关键因素。
Really one of the things that accelerated economic growth. Right after the war, Japan's major business was exporting silk and cotton and importing as much cash as they could get their hands on. Within a decade, they're exporting cars, cameras, electronics. How did all that happen in such a short period of time? A lot of it is because of the power of the cadets who unification. Never in human history has that kind of economic miracle happened with the defeated nation coming back on and coming out with the roar. It's an amazing story. It really is. It's been studied again and again and again and I think we never get tired of it. There are always more wrinkles yet to be brought out. So the K-Retsu had a big hand in that, but it seems like recently it is not a.
真的是加速经济增长的事情之一。战后，日本主要的业务是出口丝绸和棉花，尽可能多地进口现金。在不到十年的时间里，他们就开始出口汽车、相机和电子产品了。这一切是如何在如此短的时间内发生的呢？其中很大一部分原因在于一体化的K-Retsu力量。在人类历史上从未有过这样一种经济奇迹，被打败的国家回来并以咆哮之势崛起。这是一个令人惊叹的故事。它确实是。这个故事一遍又一遍地被研究，我认为我们永远不会厌倦。总是有更多的细节等待被揭示出来。因此，K-Retsu在其中扮演了重要角色，但最近似乎不再如此。
Well, things have changed a lot. The next step in the story, what you were talking about before about the cadets keeping out foreign competition, that was understood even back in the 50s. They were talking about that. As late as 1970, we have someone like Miyazawa Kiichi who later on became prime minister. At that time, he was the meaty minister, minister of international trade and industry. He gets up in front of the diet and says, we need a cadetsification of industry. We basically need to pull the wagons into a circle and keep the foreigners out. We don't want foreign intervention here. We don't want people buying up Japanese companies because in 1960s, 1970s, US companies are starting to get some muscle. They're starting to run into.
事情发生了很大的变化。故事的下一步，就是你之前所说的士官学校阻止外国竞争，这在上世纪50年代就已经明确了。当时就在讨论这个问题。直到1970年，我们有了像宫泽喜一这样的人，他后来成为了日本首相。当时他是贸易工业大臣。他在国会上发言说，我们需要行业的“士官学校化”。我们基本上需要把车厢拉到一起，让外国人无法进入。我们不希望外国人干涉此事。因为在20世纪60年代和70年代，美国公司开始崭露头角。他们开始进军我们的市场。
They have some cash and then want to start buying companies around the world. We don't want any M&A here in Japan. If we're going to have M&A, we'll do it ourselves. We don't need foreigners. So the word was, let's use the cadets to keep people out. In that sense, yes, the cadets were exactly what they were being charged as by the US government 10 years later. You see a little bit of an echo of that even now when we're studying a lot of different things about contemporary Japan, immigration, for example, labor law policies, the treatment of women and bringing them into the workforce. It seems like there's an overlay here that is about being Japan and protecting Japan and promoting the Japanese spirit in spite of the constant invitations of foreigners to participate to.
他们手头有一些现金，想要开始在全球范围内购买公司。我们不希望在日本进行任何并购。如果我们要进行并购，我们自己会这样做。我们并不需要外国人。因此，我们的想法是利用学员让人们保持距离。从这个意义上说，确实是美国政府在十年后指控学员时所说的。即使现在，当我们研究与当代日本有关的许多不同事物时，例如移民、劳动法政策、妇女的待遇和将她们带入劳动力市场，我们仍然看到这种覆盖，即保护日本、推广日本精神，尽管外国人不断邀请参与。
Yes, well, that's a much bigger issue. But yes, absolutely. There's always been a sense of cultural protectionism which is bled over into economic protectionism. And that's been. I mean, as long as Japan has known there's an outside world. And I don't think it's ever going to go away. It's an island country. It's perfectly natural for them to feel like, you know, we're a small country. We have no resources. We need to protect ourselves any way we can. And there's a sense of very strong sense of cultural identity that you don't find in, for example, a country in the middle of Europe that's bordered by 20 other nations. That's true. They're floating along in the Pacific. And yes, there's a very strong cultural identity that they want to protect.
嗯，这是一个更大的问题。但是，绝对是这样的。日本人一直有保护自己文化的意识，这也流露在了经济保护主义上。这种情况一直存在，就像日本知道外部世界的存在一样长久。我不认为这种情况会消失。日本是一个岛国，他们觉得保护自己是理所当然的，因为他们是一个没有资源的小国。同时，他们有强烈的文化认同感，这种认同在欧洲中部一个被20个国家包围的国家是没有的。是的，他们漂浮在太平洋上有着非常强烈的文化身份认同，他们希望保护这一点。
Right. So from Zaibatsu to Keide, it's not a clear step. But a lot of the main corporations here, they still bear their names. I mean, not Santori, not Sony because those were created in the recent past, but Mitsui's Okura, a lot of these houses, and they're basically, they were formerly houses, you know, family owned, have kind of transitioned in. They're huge conglomerates. Certainly. And they participate in Japanese economy in a huge way. Even the old Zaibatsu groups still exist. They're still a Mitsubishi group. One of the big differences that I should have mentioned earlier in the transition from the Zaibatsu to the Keide is that the Zaibatsu were originally, I say, in the 19th century, they were family owned and family run.
没错。从财阀到经营方式的改变并不是那么清晰明了的。但是，在这里很多的主要公司仍然沿用自己的名字。我的意思是，不是三得利，不是索尼，因为它们是最近新创建的，但是三井的大仓，许多这样的公司，它们基本上曾经是一个家族所有的房产，现在已经实现了转变。它们现在是一个巨大的企业集团。当然。它们在日本经济中扮演着至关重要的角色。甚至连旧的财阀集团还存在着。三菱集团就是其中之一。我应该提早说一下，在财阀到经营方式从财阀到经营方式的转变中，最重要的区别之一是，财阀最初，我说的是19世纪，是由家族所有和管理的。
In the 20th century, they were family owned, but they were run by professional managers, which is a big change. And that was carried over into the Keide-Zure. What they said was, we're not going to be family owned, and we're not going to be run by family members. There's not going to be a handing down from father to son. So what happens is these companies are now managed by professional managers. And that's the system that we have today. But they still have, even as independent managers of independent companies, they still have this sense of group identity. And group sharing is much easier than competing. And so many, many years ago, I talked to a representative from a Mitsubishi Motors, was saying to me, we never have to worry about our sales figures, because anytime our sales look like they're a little low, everyone in the group will buy our cars. We just ask, we go to the bank and tell the bank, we're a little short this year, and they tell everybody in the group, buy some cars, order some cars from the car company.
在20世纪，公司大多由家族所有，但由专业经理人经营，这是一项重大改变。这种现象延续到了Keide-Zure。他们说，我们不再是家族所有，也不由家族成员经营。不会有父亲传给儿子的情况。因此，这些公司现在由专业经理人管理。这就是我们今天的系统。但即使作为独立公司的独立经理人，他们仍然有着团体认同感。群体共享比竞争容易得多。因此，许多年前，我曾与一位三菱汽车代表交谈，他告诉我说：“我们从不担心我们的销售数据，因为每当我们的销售看起来有点低时，团体中的每个人都会买我们的车。我们只需要去银行告诉他们，今年我们有点短缺，他们就会告诉团体中的所有人，从汽车公司订购一些车辆。”
Right. So in understanding this, for many foreigners, they describe trying to be comfortable and acculturate themselves to Japanese society. It's like going through an onion. You keep going through these layers. And there are some layers that are just kind of impenetrable, but you can still live, you can still have a business.
正确。对许多外国人来说，了解日本社会意味着试图让自己感到舒适并融入其中。就像剥洋葱一样。你不断地剥掉这些层，有些层是很难渗透的，但你仍然可以生活，仍然可以经商。
But I get this sense that you're dodging the issue about Keide-Zure and where they've gone and how they've evolved now. So what's the story now? What's your take on? Well, the Keide-Zure has changed a lot. There's no question. The basic structures remain in place, but there have been so many changes in Japanese business. You know very well. In the last 20 years, the landscape has changed dramatically.
我感觉你回避了对于Keide-Zure及其去向以及现在的变化的问题。现在情况怎样？你的看法是什么？
嗯，Keide-Zure已经发生了很大变化。基本结构依然存在，但是日本企业发生了许多变化，你非常清楚。在过去的20年中，整个格局发生了巨大的变化。
So of the original Big Six K-Datsu, the Big Six K-Datsu were basically Zaybatsu, oriented. The Mitsubishi, the Mitsui, and the Sumitomo families that ran the Zaybatsu and later the Keide-Zure, what happened? Well, Mitsui and Sumitomo, back at the beginning of the century, merged. Two ancient rivals merged to form one major bank, right? One of the big megabanks now.
最初的六大砍断派基本上是财阀企业，以三菱、三井和住友家族为主导。随后这些财阀企业转化为经营细化企业。那么，后来执掌财阀企业和细化企业的家族如三菱、三井、住友发生了什么呢？在世纪之初，三井和住友合并了。两位古老的竞争对手合并成为了一个重要的银行，对吧？如今成为了一家大型超级银行之一。
And what did they do? Obviously, Sumitomo was a very, what should we say, strictly run group. Didn't go so well, did it? Well, there's still growing pains. Well, Sumitomo's had its challenges, but Sumitomo's a very well organized, very tightly run group.
他们做了什么？很明显，住友集团是一个非常，我们应该说，严格管理的集团。情况不太好，不是吗？好吧，还存在一些成长烦恼。住友集团有面临过挑战，但是它非常有条理，管理严密。
And back in the bubble days, Sumitomo bank was run by a very, very strong, what some would say, draconian kind of chairman. And the bank had total control over the Sumitomo group. The group members still maintained their group name, their company names. Sumitomo did that, and the other thing. Very, very strict thing. But they merged with Mitsui, and just the bank merged with Mitsui. And then of course, Sumitomo being Sumitomo, they said, okay, now all the other related companies in the group, they have to merge as well.
回到泡沫时期，三菱银行由一位非常强硬的主席管理，有些人甚至称之为龙头。银行对三菱集团拥有全面的控制权。集团成员仍保留其集团名称和公司名称。三菱什么都管，非常严格。但他们与三井合并，只有银行合并了。然后，当然，作为三菱，他们说，好吧，现在集团中的所有其他相关公司也必须合并。
So what's happening is two cadets who are like two giant galaxies coming together and slowly becoming one giant organization. So that's a big change. DKB, Daiichi Kongo Bank, used to be one of the major cadets who, and Sanwa Bank used to be one of the major cadets who, what happened? You know, Sanwa became part of what's now Mitsubishi UFJ, and DKB became part of what is now Mizuho. And so the whole landscape is changing.
现在发生的是两个学员像两个巨大的星系一样融合在一起，逐渐成为一个巨大的组织。这是个大变化。DKB（大一富士银行）曾经是主要的学员之一，而三菱三和银行（Sanwa Bank）也曾经是主要的学员之一，但发生了什么？你知道，三菱三和银行成为了现在三菱日联银行的一部分，而DKB则成为了现在的瑞穗银行的一部分。所以整个景象正在发生变化。
Right. If these big cadets are centered on a bank and the banks now merge with a rival bank, what do you do? So things have changed dramatically, and I think they're going to continue to change. Another big change is because of the economic problems Japan faced in the 1990s, the banks were not able to continue this long-term massive cross-shareholding.
好的。如果这些大型学员把重心放在一家银行上，而现在这些银行与竞争对手银行合并了，你会怎么做？事情已经发生了巨大的变化，我认为它们将继续变化。另一个重大变化是由于日本在上世纪90年代面临的经济问题，银行不能继续进行长期大规模的交叉持股。
They needed to sell shares to raise money. And so one of the key glues that held together, these cadets, was the bank owns our shares. We've got to own the bank shares. The bank started saying, you know, we don't need that many of your shares. We're going to dump about 50% of our holding. That's a radical change.
他们需要出售股票来筹集资金。因此，将这些军校新生凝聚在一起的关键之一是银行拥有我们的股票，我们必须持有银行股。银行开始表示，我们不需要那么多的股票。我们将抛售大约50％的持股。这是一个激进的变化。
And so as the whole shift of cadets who becoming a little bit less strict, a little bit less by the book, and I think we're still friends, we're more like a club now, and we're a little less like Tywin Lannister is running the organization. Things have become a little looser now. But there are still cadets of connections.
整个班级的转变，每个学员都变得不那么严格，不那么按照书本来做事，尽管我们仍然是朋友，但我们更像是一个小团体了。我们不再像泰温·兰尼斯特那样严苛管理。现在情况变得有点松散了，但仍有联系的学员存在。
And coming back to your other point, yes, when foreigners come over here, they very often don't understand that. And they don't understand the historical connections behind these companies. You know what? If I want to do business with Keaton Beer, what do I need to know about Mitsubishi? Nothing. They think, well, that's a huge mistake, in Japan. Why should I know that Nikon belongs to such in such a corporate group? It makes no difference. I'm only doing business with Nikon. Well, that's again a big mistake.
回到你之前提到的另一个观点，是的，当外国人来这里时，他们往往不理解这一点。他们不理解这些公司背后的历史渊源。你知道吗？如果我想跟“Keaton Beer”做生意，我需要知道三菱公司吗？不需要。但是在日本，他们会认为这是一个巨大的错误。为什么我需要知道尼康属于哪个企业集团呢？这没有任何区别。我只是和尼康做生意。这又是一个错误。
Right. Right. Students of contemporary Japanese politics and industry like David and I are always wondering and interested in how things are today, where they came from. The cadets of system is one of those that you need to understand to figure out how things are working today. A lot of these issues we're going to continue to explore here on Brand 2020. Stay tuned.
没错。现代日本政治和产业的学生，像我和David一样，总是想知道事情是如何发展至今天的，以及它们的根源在哪里。制度学是其中之一，你需要了解它才能弄清楚今天事情的运作方式。我们将继续在Brand 2020中探索这些问题。敬请关注。