Markets Weekly May 13

Hello my friends, today is May 13th, my name is Joseph and this is Markets Weekly. This week we're going to talk about three things. The first thing we'll talk about is the most recent senior loan officer survey. Many market participants have been focusing on this because it gives us insight as to how badly if any the panic in March impacted the banking sector's willingness to make loans. Secondly, we'll talk about the Fed's most recent financial stability report. In it there's an interesting tidbit that suggests that the impact from commercial real estate to the banking sector may not be what we expected it to be. And lastly we'll talk about the Fed's fight against inflation. The Fed is slowly getting inflation under control but maybe too slowly and that might impact how it behaves in the coming months.

大家好，今天是5月13日，我是乔瑟夫，欢迎收看本期的《市场周报》。本周我们将会谈到三个话题。首先，我们会讨论最近的高级贷款官员调查。许多市场参与者一直关注这个调查，因为它能揭示三月份的恐慌情况是否对银行业的贷款意愿造成了严重影响。其次，我们将谈论美联储最新的金融稳定报告。其中有一个有趣的片段表明，商业房地产对银行业的影响可能不像我们预期的那样严重。最后，我们将讨论美联储对抗通胀的努力。美联储慢慢地控制着通胀，但可能有点太慢了，这可能会影响它在未来几个月的行动方式。

Now let's start first with the senior loan officer survey. So for those of you who don't know, the Fed's survey is about 60 commercial banks periodically to try to figure out whether or not they're tightening their lending standards. Now this indicator has been pretty useful over the past few decades in determining whether or not the economy will fall into every session. Now this chart here I show the lending standards to commercial and industrial middle market and large firms and commercial and industrial small firms. You'll notice that there are two lines but they basically go the same way. Over the past few decades you can see that this line goes up and down. It oscillates like a sine wave. It usually goes up that is to say banks are tightening their lending standards heading into a recession and as the economy comes out of recession this indicator shows that banks tend to loosen lending standards.

现在让我们先从高级贷款主任调查开始说起。对于那些不知道的人来说，联邦储备的调查是关于60家商业银行定期进行的，旨在确定它们是否正在收紧贷款标准。过去几十年，这个指标一直很有用，可以确定经济是否会陷入衰退。现在，我在这里展示了商业和工业中等规模和大公司的贷款标准以及商业和工业小企业的贷款标准的图表。你会注意到有两条线，但它们基本上是同向的。在过去的几十年里，你可以看到这条线上下波动，就像一个正弦波一样摆动。通常情况下，它会上涨，也就是说银行正在在经济衰退时收紧贷款标准，并且随着经济走出衰退，这个指标会显示银行倾向于放松贷款标准。

Now there's a couple ways to think about this. One is that banks have a pretty good grasp as to what's happening in the economy. They have lending relationships to a vast amounts of businesses. They also see the chicken counts of a lot of people so they can get a sense whether or not the economy is doing well or poorly and perhaps when they sense that the economy is slowing down they become more conservative in who they make loans to. After all they don't want to make loans to someone who is unable to repay them. So you can think of it as perhaps a banks were willing to make a loan to someone with a 650 credit score. Now as they tighten conditions maybe they're only willing to lend someone with a 770 credit score. Another way to think about this is that as banks reduce their lending borrowers have less money to spend. So there's less money to buy stuff, miss money to make investments and that naturally slows the economy down. So there could also be a causal relationship where less bank loans means that economic growth slows down.

有几种思考这个问题的方式。其一是，银行对经济状况了解得相当清楚。它们拥有众多企业的贷款关系。此外，它们还能见到很多人的账户情况，因此可以感知经济是好是坏，或许在它们觉察到经济在放缓时，会更保守地从哪些人手里贷款。毕竟，它们不希望贷款给不能偿还贷款的人。因此，你可以这样想，银行可能愿意向信用评分为650的人提供贷款。现在条件变严格了，可能只愿意向信用评分为770的人贷款。 还有一种想法是，随着银行减少贷款，借款人的可用资金减少。因此，购买东西的资金减少，投资的资金也减少，这自然会减缓经济发展。因此，银行贷款减少也可能导致经济增长减缓，存在因果关系。

So I'm sure there's some truth to both these angles. Many people were particularly interested in the most recent loan officer survey because it's the one that was conducted after the regional bank panic in March. Now just for some context as you can see in the chart here the banks have been tightening their lending conditions for almost a year. So for the past several months they've already been steadily tightening. Now the question was whether or not what happened in March significantly impacted their lending standards. Did they significantly retrench because you're afraid of further big runs and so forth? And the survey was actually pretty clear that it didn't that they did not significantly retrench.

我确信这两种角度都有一定的真实性。许多人特别关注最近的贷款官调查，因为这是在三月地区银行恐慌之后进行的。现在仅仅为了一些背景，你们可以看到这里的图表，银行已经收紧贷款条件将近一年了。因此，在过去几个月中，它们已经在稳步加紧了。现在的问题是，三月份发生的事情是否对它们的贷款标准产生了重大影响？它们是否因为担心进一步的大规模抢购而明显缩减了其贷款额度？该调查实际上相当清楚地表明没有，它们没有明显缩减贷款额度。

Now here is the lending standards for to large and middle market firms. And you can we can look at the middle of the lending standards for small firms later as well and it's about the same. And in this survey it showed that overall 54% of banks reported that their lending standards were unchanged and 43% they had tightened quote unquote somewhat. So banks continue to tighten their lending standards but it doesn't seem like they reacted very strongly to what happened in March. What was particularly interesting to me though is when they break the survey down between large banks which includes some large regional banks and other banks which are the thousands of small banks most of us have never heard of and many were most concerned of that they would face deposit runs.

现在这里是针对大型和中型市场企业的贷款标准。我们稍后可以看一下小企业的中间贷款标准，它们大致相同。在这项调查中，总体上有54％的银行报告称，它们的贷款标准没有改变，而43％则表示它们有所紧缩。因此银行继续加强它们的贷款标准，但似乎并没有对三月份发生的情况做出非常强烈的反应。最令我感到有趣的是，当他们将调查分为包括一些大型地区银行在内的大型银行和其他银行时，这是成千上万的我们从未听说过的小银行，他们中的许多人最担心自己会面临存款流失。

Now the large banks 52% of them reported that their lending standards to large and middle market firms were unchanged. For the small banks 57% reported that their lending standards were unchanged. So it was actually the larger banks that tightened their lending standards slightly more than the smaller banks which is pretty interesting. So this measure seems to me to suggest that banks continue to tighten their lending standards but it doesn't seem like the panic with Silicon Valley bank had a big impact on their on them tightening. They were already doing so and continue to steadily do so.

现在，52%的大型银行报告称，它们对大中型企业的贷款标准没有改变；而57%的小型银行也报告称，它们的贷款标准没有改变。因此，实际上，较大的银行比较小的银行更加略微地收紧了它们的贷款标准，这是非常有趣的。因此，这个指标似乎表明，银行继续收紧其贷款标准，但看起来硅谷银行的恐慌并没有对它们的收紧产生很大的影响。他们已经这样做了，而且继续稳步做下去。

Now the next thing we want to talk about is the financial stability report which is the Fed's report that it releases twice a year that goes over what the Fed thinks of as potential vulnerabilities in the economy. This report is really interesting because the Fed has access to a lot of confidential data so they're able to see things that most market participants are not able to see.

现在我们要谈论的是美联储的金融稳定报告，这是美联储每年发布两次的报告，对经济中可能的脆弱性进行分析。这份报告非常有趣，因为美联储拥有许多机密数据，因此能够看到大多数市场参与者无法看到的事情。

As I went over the report it struck me as pretty mild there wasn't anything that really stood out except this box here on commercial real estate. Now many of us have read in the press that commercial real estate is a source of major concern. But before we become too alarmed though I think it's important to note that commercial real estate isn't really really broad segment.

当我仔细查看报告时，我发现它相当温和，除了商业房地产方面有一个突出的盲点。现在，我们很多人都在媒体上读到商业房地产是一个主要的问题来源。但在我们过于警惕之前，我认为重要的是要指出商业房地产并不是非常广泛的领域。

Commercial real estate includes things like hospitals, so medical, so it includes warehouses, it includes multi-family. And also of course includes office space and retail and things like that. Now obviously the fundamentals that drive say industrial space are going to be very different from the fundamentals that drive office space in downtown San Francisco.

商业房地产包括医院、医疗中心、仓库、多层住宅等。当然，也包括办公空间和零售空间等。显然，驱动旧金山市中心办公空间的基本因素与驱动工业空间的基本因素会非常不同。

So if one segment of commercial real estate is doing poorly that doesn't necessarily mean that everything else is doing very poorly as well.

因此，如果商业房地产的某个细分市场表现不佳，并不意味着其他方面的表现也非常糟糕。

Now we've all heard that commercial office space in downtown areas of big cities have been doing very poorly. Many companies went to work from home but they're not fully back yet. That means lots of vacant office space. That potentially might always be vacant because perhaps some people are moving to permanent work from home. And in connection to that retail space that was dependent upon all these downtown workers is also suffering.

我们都听说过大城市市中心的商业办公空间表现很差。许多公司开始在家办公，但他们还没有完全回到办公室。这意味着很多的空置办公空间。这种情况可能会一直持续，因为一些人可能会永久地在家办公。与此同时，依赖这些市中心工作人员的零售空间也在遭受损失。

So if you don't have workers going down to work in downtown offices that means a restaurant in downtown is not getting as many customers as it used to. So those segments of commercial real estate are segments that are doing very poorly and are people are rightly concerned about it. So the Fed took a look at that segment of commercial real estate and wanted to figure out just the potential of contagion from that segment of sense of commercial real estate to the broader banking sector.

因此，如果你没有工人前往市区办公室工作，这意味着市区的一家餐馆所拥有的顾客不如以前那么多。因此，这些商业房地产的部分正在表现非常糟糕，人们正确地关注着它。因此，美联储对商业房地产的这一部分进行了审视，并想要找出这一方面对更广泛的银行业存在的潜在传染性质。

Many media reports report that commercial banks, particularly smaller banks are big lenders to commercial real estate investors. And so that would suggest that if the commercial real estate segment is not doing well then maybe these banks will not do well as well. Again, as we noted commercial real estate is broad. So let's just focus on the sense of aspects of commercial real estate.

很多媒体报道称，商业银行，特别是较小银行，是商业房地产投资者的大贷方。这意味着，如果商业房地产行业表现不佳，那么这些银行也可能表现不佳。但需要注意的是，商业房地产行业是广泛的，因此，我们需要关注商业房地产的某些方面。

That of holdings of office in downtown retail commercial real estate. Now according to this Fed study it comes with a very surprising result. Now the reports breaks down exposures of commercial banks to the second segment by the size of the commercial banks.

这篇报道涉及到在市中心零售商业房地产拥有的办公室财产情况。根据美联储的研究，这篇报道给出了一个非常出人意料的结果。该报告按商业银行的规模划分，详细阐述商业银行对第二段的风险敞口。

So they said that the category one banks, the biggest, biggest banks, the JPMs, the US G-Subs had pretty small exposure to this segment. Only collectively 100 billion, which sounds like a big number but is actually a pretty small part of the assets of these banks. Next the Fed broke it down to exposure by category two to four banks. Now these banks are the large regionals. So you can think Huntington or M&T banks like that. And another pretty surprising result.

他们说，一级银行，最大的、最大的银行，像JP摩根银行、美国联邦储备系统都没有很大的暴露于这个部分。只有总共1000亿美元，看起来是一个很大的数字，但实际上只占这些银行资产的很小一部分。接下来，美联储将2-4级银行的风险暴露情况进行了详细的分析，这些银行包括大区域性银行。如汉廷顿银行和M&T银行等。还有一个令人惊讶的结果。

These regional banks only have about 110 billion in exposure to office in downtown retail commercial real estate. So that's also a pretty small exposure. However, when you go beyond the regional banks to the legitimately small banks, remember in the US we have over 4,000 banks and most of them are very small and you've never heard of those really small banks, like community banks have collectively 510 billion in exposure to this sensitive sector of commercial real estate.

这些地区性银行对位于市区的零售商业房地产只有1100亿的暴露度，因此其暴露度也相对较小。然而，当你去超越这些地区性银行，去到真正的小型银行，要记住在美国我们有超过4,000家银行，其中大多数都非常小，而你可能从未听说过这些非常小的银行，例如社区银行合计暴露在这种敏感的商业房地产领域有5100亿的暴露度。

Now I think that was pretty surprising to me because reading from the news, you'd expect the regional banks to be big investors in the space but it turns out they aren't. It's really just these small banks. And you know that that that's pretty concerning to me because small banks collectively are not that big and $500 billion would be a meaningful part of their total assets.

我认为这相当令人惊讶，因为从新闻中看来，你会期望地区银行是这个领域的大投资者，但事实证明他们并不是。实际上只有这些小银行。这让我感到相当担忧，因为小银行总体来说并不是很大，而5000亿美元对他们的总资产来说是一个很重要的部分。

But before we panic though, we have to, of course, keep in mind that we don't really know how well underwritten they are. Perhaps the commercial perhaps the small commercial banks were very conservative and they were lending to very low, low into value. We don't know. But the good news is of course small banks by definition are not systemically important. So it's probably not going to have a big impact on the financial system as a whole. Again, this study was not very granular. They don't have a lot of detailed data but it's something to keep in mind whenever you read about panic in the commercial real estate sector impacting the banking sector.

在我们惊慌之前，当然要记住我们不知道这些银行的贷款有多好。也许商业银行或者小型商业银行非常保守，他们只贷款给非常低风险的客户。我们不知道。但好消息是小型银行被定义为非系统性重要银行。所以这可能对整个金融系统没有太大的影响。再次强调，这项研究不是非常详细。他们没有很多详细的数据，但无论何时在商业地产领域出现恐慌影响银行部门的新闻时，这是应该记在心中的。

Now the last thing I want to talk about is the most recent CPI print which was actually pretty promising. So as we know inflation has been very high for the past couple of years and the Fed has been trying hard to get it under control.

现在我想谈论的最后一件事是最近的CPI打印，它其实是相当令人兴奋的。正如我们所知，通货膨胀在过去几年非常高，并且美联储一直在努力控制它。

CPI this month is showing some moderation in some pretty important segments, specifically shelter. So shelter, so let's say rentals and housing, stuff like that, that is about 30% of CPI and over the past few months it's been steadily decelerating. So a few months ago it was at 0.7 and then 0.6 and then 0.8 and now most recently it's at 0.4% month over month. So there's a very clear deceleration in shelter.

本月CPI在一些相当重要的领域，尤其是住房方面，显示出一定的缓和。因为住房租赁等占CPI的约30％，在过去的几个月中，它一直在稳步减缓。因此，几个月前它为0.7％，然后是0.6％和0.8％，现在最近的数据为每月0.4％。因此住房方面的减速非常显然。

Now we always knew that this would happen though. One way to think about this is that when rents go up it doesn't impact everyone at the same time. If rents went up today then the people who had to renew their lease today would report higher rental expenses. But the other people though they would continue to pay their current rent until their lease was up for renewal, let's say next month or a few months later. So in a sense this shelter inflation was something that was slowly feeding in to CPI and we always knew that over time it would gradually slow down because the most leading indicators of rent, so rents being rent increases right now have been decelerating for some time. It seems that that deceleration is finally here. So that's good news.

我们一直知道这种情况最终会发生。可以这样考虑，租金上涨不会立即影响所有人。如果租金今天涨了，那么今天必须续租的人会报告更高的租金支出。但是其他人会继续支付他们当前的租金，直到他们的租约到期为止，比如下个月或几个月之后。因此，这种住房通胀在某种程度上是逐渐反映在CPI中的，我们一直知道随着时间的推移，它会逐渐减缓，因为租金的最前沿指标，即租金增长现在已经开始减缓了一段时间。似乎这种减速现在已经到来了。这是个好消息。

But the bad news though is that when you think about the Fed's fight against inflation it's not just eventually getting inflation down to 2%. There's also a time component to this which is a framework that I learned from Bob Elliott which is a really smart guy on Twitter. In the sense that if you take a long time to get inflation under control you potentially could lose control of inflation expectations.

但不好的消息是，当你考虑到美联储抗击通胀时，不仅仅是最终将通胀降至2%。这也有一个时间因素，在推特上非常聪明的Bob Elliott教授的框架中可以了解到。如果你需要很长时间来控制通胀，可能会失去控制通胀预期的可能性。

Now the Fed being largely run by economists like to think about inflation through the lens of inflation expectations. The theory is that a big driver of actual inflation is the expectations of future inflation. So from a consumer standpoint if consumers expect prices to be 10% higher next year then obviously they're going to go out and buy stuff today. And if they all go out and buy stuff today that pushes up inflation because everyone is going to buy stuff. Another way you can think about this is that if you are a big business and you expect prices to go up 10% next year well then obviously you have to raise your prices 10% too. So that's why the Fed pays close attention to inflation expectations.

现在，美联储主要由经济学家运作，他们喜欢通过通货膨胀预期来思考通货膨胀。这一理论认为，实际通货膨胀的一个重要驱动因素是未来通货膨胀的预期。因此，从消费者的角度来看，如果消费者预计明年物价将上涨10％，显然他们会在今天购买东西。如果他们都去购买东西，那么由于每个人都要购买，这将推高通货膨胀。您可以将其另一个角度是，如果您是一家大型企业，并且预计明年物价将上涨10％，那么显然您也必须将您的价格提高10％。因此，这就是为什么美联储会密切关注通货膨胀预期的原因。

Now this is a graph of the University of Michigan's fiber and the survey of consumers fiber inflation expectations and you can see that it's spiking higher. It looks like it's reaching highs not seen for quite a few years. Now we have had high inflation for a couple years. The Fed is getting it under control but very slowly. And it might be so slow that inflation expectations are steadily rising and that's going to scare the Fed a lot because from their framework if you lose control of inflation expectations you can lose control of actual inflation.

这是密歇根大学和消费者通胀预期调查的光纤图表。你可以看到图表上的通胀预期正在飙升，并且似乎已经达到了几年没有见过的高点。我们已经经历了几年的高通胀率，尽管美联储正在缓慢地控制它，但进展非常缓慢。这可能导致通胀预期继续上升，这将使美联储非常担忧，因为根据它们的框架，如果失去了通胀预期的控制，实际通胀也会失去控制。

And this week though we also had some interesting Fed speak from Governor Bowman who is a voting member. Now the market has largely expected that the last rate hike to be the last and it was looking forward to future rate cuts. Now Governor Bowman came out with this speech and actually suggested that she might want to hike rates again in June. Here I read a couple of lines from this speech to give you a sense of how she's thinking about this. She says, should inflation remain high and the labor market remain tight, additional monetary policy tightening will likely be appropriate to attain a sufficiently restrictive stance in monetary policy. So again she's saying that if themes continue as they were have been I want to hike again. And later on in the speech she says in the same paragraph, in my view the most recent CPI and employment reports have not provided consistent evidence that inflation is on a downward path.

本周，我们也听到了美联储委员鲍曼的有趣讲话，她是一名投票委员。市场普遍预计，最后一次加息将是最后一次，它正期待未来的降息。现在，鲍曼委员发表了这篇演讲，实际上暗示她可能想在六月份再次加息。在这里，我摘录了她演讲中的几句话，让你了解她的想法。她说：“如果通胀率保持高位，劳动力市场保持紧张的话，加强货币政策的措施很可能是适当的，以达到货币政策的足够紧缩”。因此，她再次表示，如果事情继续如之前一样，她会再次加息。在演讲的后面，她在同一段落中说：“在我看来，最近的消费者物价指数和就业报告未能提供一致的证据，证明通胀正在下降的趋势”。

So here's a voting member up there for them to see telling everyone that she wants to hike rates again in June. So again when I think about the markets as I've been telling you for some time is that so far it's like this it's been this one big bet that the Fed is going to cut rates later so the dollar weekends and you got to buy a tech stocks. Now I don't think that's actually going to happen and the Fed is again pushing back in that narrative. When the market finally realizes that maybe the Fed is actually serious that they may might actually hold rates higher for longer throughout the year that's when you can get some volatility and probably a bit of a correction in the equity markets.

这里有一个投票成员，她表示希望在六月份再次提高利率，市场上的人们可以看到。正如我一直告诉大家的那样，目前市场上的情况是：大家打赌美联储会在后面降低利率，因此美元会走弱，而科技股则会上涨。但我认为这种情况不会发生，而美联储也在推翻这种说法。当市场最终意识到美联储可能会在今年长期保持较高的利率时，股市可能会有一些波动和一定程度的调整。

Okay and my best guess is we're close to that part. Okay so that's all I have for today. Thanks so much for tuning in and I'll talk to you all next week.

我的最佳猜测是我们快要接近那个部分了。好的，今天就讲到这里。非常感谢收听，下周再和大家聊。