The world’s ageing population and the ticking demographic time bomb, with Prof Jane Falkingham
发布时间 2023-02-10 00:00:00 来源
摘要
It was recently reported that China has entered an era of negative population growth, after demographic statistics revealed a drop in numbers for the first time since 1961. And they are not alone, many other countries across the world are also experiencing dramatic falls in birth rates. This had led some researchers to suggest that many countries are facing a so-called demographic time bomb that will leave them with an ageing population and a shortfall of people of working age.
We speak to Prof Jane Falkingham of the University of Southampton’s Centre for Research on Ageing. She tells us more about the world’s ageing population, how we have reached this point and what we can do to lessen its impact.
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Hello and welcome to InstaGES, a bite-sized Masterclass in podcast 4. I'm Jason Goodger, commissioning editor of BBC Science Fagus magazine.
大家好，欢迎来到InstaGES，这是我们第四期的播客，是一堂简短的大师课。我是BBC科学杂志的主编杰森·古德格。
It was recently reported that China has entered an era of negative population growth. After demographic statistics revealed a drop in numbers for the first time since 1961. And they're not alone. Many other countries across the world are also experiencing dramatic falls in birth rates.
最近报道称，中国已经进入了人口负增长的时代。这是自1961年以来首次统计数据显示人数下降。不仅如此，世界上许多其他国家也正在经历人口出生率的急剧下降。
This has led some researchers to suggest that many countries are facing a so-called demographic time bomb that will leave them with an aging population and a shortfall of people of working age. We speak to Professor Jane Falkingham of the University of Southampton's Centre for Research and Aging. She tells us more about the world's aging population, how we've reached this point, and what we can do to let it's impact.
一些研究人员建议，许多国家正面临所谓的人口老龄化时间炸弹，这将导致他们的人口老龄化和缺乏工作年龄人口。我们采访了南安普敦大学老龄化研究中心的简·福尔金汉教授。她告诉我们更多关于全球老龄化人口的情况，我们是如何达到这一点的，以及我们可以做些什么来应对它的影响。
So China has now entered the period of negative population growth for the first time in 60 years. And this has led to many commentators saying that they're facing something called a demographic time bomb. So you hear this term quite a lot, but let's start with saying what exactly does that mean?
中国现在进入了人口负增长期，这是60年来的首次。这导致许多评论家称他们正面临所谓的人口老龄化时间炸弹。你经常听到这个术语，但让我们从说出它的确切含义开始吧。
Yeah, it's a really interesting question. People have used the demographic time bomb to talk about the aging of the population. So the aging of the population has come about really because of fantastic human successes. So we've seen rising life expectancy and falling fertility rates. Fatility rates means the number of children that people have. And what this means is that during the time period where we're moving from having low life expectancy and high numbers of children to having high life expectancy and low numbers of children, we're seeing a change in the shape of our populations in terms of the age structure, which means we're having more older people in the population and fewer people of working age.
是的，这是一个非常有趣的问题。人们使用“人口时间炸弹”来谈论人口的老龄化。因此，人口的老龄化实际上是由于人类取得了惊人的成功。因此，我们可以看到人类寿命的延长和生育率的下降。生育率指的是人们所生育的孩子数量。这意味着在我们从寿命短、孩子数量多的阶段，转向寿命长、孩子数量少的阶段时，我们看到我们的人口结构在年龄结构上发生了变化，这意味着我们将有更多的老年人口，而较少的工作年龄人口。
So the term demographic time bomb has really emerged over the last 20 to 30 years when people have been looking at the ratio of old people to young people in populations. And of course it's not just China that that's happening, it's happening everywhere in the world, but China is an extreme version of population aging.
"人口老龄化这个词汇出现在近二三十年，人们开始关注老年人口和年轻人口的比例。当然，这不仅仅是中国发生的情况，世界各地都在发生。但中国是人口老龄化最极端的国家之一。"
Yeah, so you mentioned that obviously China's got a kind of deep history with this sort of thing because they had the not so long ago, I think less than 10 years ago, they stopped the one child policy. Now they're trying to have more children, yes, which is kind of crazy.
嗯，所以你提到了显然中国在这方面有着深厚的历史，因为不久以前，不到十年前，他们停止了独生子女政策。现在他们正在试图要更多孩子，是有点疯狂啊。
Well, that's really why China is going through this, they're going through what we call the demographic transition really, really rapidly in demography or study of populations, I'm a professor of demography. We look at how things like changes in the death rate and changes in the birth rate impact on populations and all countries in the world are actually going through this demographic transition at the moment, but it happened in China much, much faster than anywhere else, precisely because of their very draconian family planning policies.
嗯，这就是为什么中国正在经历所谓的人口转型，而且非常迅速。在人口学或人口研究领域，我是一名教授。我们研究死亡率和出生率的变化如何影响人口，全世界所有国家都正在经历这种人口转型，但是中国的转型速度比其他任何地方都要快，正是因为他们非常严格的计划生育政策。
So in the late 1970s, they had a policy called a few a later longer, which meant have fewer children, have them later and leave a longer interval in between the children you have. And then in 1980, they actually shifted to the one child policy. Now, if you think about two adults and they only have one child and then that one child marries a one child and they have one child, that eventually means that that one child has two parents and four grandparents. But they also have no cousins and no aunts and uncles, so it's a rear, it means that you've moved very dramatically to a change in your family structure. And interestingly enough, I did some research in the 1980s and sat down with some Chinese demographers and said to them, if you carry on with this policy, this is what's going to happen.
所以在 1970 年代末，他们实行了一项政策，叫做“几个后来的孩子”，意思是要减少孩子数量，晚上再生孩子，并且之间的间隔更长。然后在 1980 年，他们实际上转向了一胎政策。现在，如果你想想两个成年人只有一个孩子，然后这个孩子嫁给另一个只有一个孩子的人，他们也只会有一个孩子，这最终意味着那一个孩子有两个父母和四个祖父母。但他们也没有堂兄妹和叔伯，这是一个罕见的境况，说明你的家庭结构已经发生了戏剧性的变化。有趣的是，我在 1980 年代做了一些研究，并与一些中国人口统计学家坐在一起，告诉他们如果继续执行这个政策，会发生什么。
At the time, I think the political expediency in the country was they wanted to reduce their population growth rate. And of course, at global level, we've also been looking at global population growth and saying, oh, can we afford to feed a world of 10 billion, 12 billion. And so we've been kind of looking at ways to slow down well population growth and China did it, but they did it in a very dramatic way without thinking about the medium to long term consequences. And now they're trying to encourage their population to have more children, but of course, the world has moved on, very high rents, Shanghai is very crowded, and rents are high, and people don't really want to have lots of children.
当时，我认为这个国家的政治利害考虑是要降低人口增长率。而在全球范围内，我们也一直在关注全球人口增长，问自己能否养活一亿、两亿的世界。因此，我们一直在寻找减缓人口增长的方法，中国采取了这种方法，但是他们采取了一种非常戏剧性的方式，没有考虑到中长期后果。现在他们正试图鼓励他们的人口生更多孩子，但当然，世界已经变化了，上海的租金很高，人口也很拥挤，而人们并不想要生很多孩子。
Yeah, so it's weird, Luke, because running contrary to this practice, we've recently just passed eight billion inhabitants on planet Earth. So what's the situation globally? Both rates are going down here and there, they're going up there. What's the global situation? Can we even say anything about that?
嗯，卢克，这很奇怪，因为与这个实践相反，我们最近刚刚超过了80亿的地球居民。那么全球情况如何呢？某些地区的速度正在下降，而某些地区正在上升。全球情况怎么样？我们能不能对此发表任何言论？
Yeah, absolutely. So the United Nations actually does really good population forecasts, and they suggested that we reach the eight billion citizen, I think towards the end of November last year. If you unpack that and look at trends across the globe, I mean, it's not just China, which has a reducing population. Many countries in Europe also have a declining population. And I think the United Nations forecast that we will probably end up at the end of this century with about 10, 10 and a half billion people, but then we'll start to have a population decline globally.
是的，完全正确。联合国在人口预测方面做得非常好，他们认为我们在去年11月末达到了80亿人口。如果你解开这个问题并观察全球趋势，不仅仅是中国人口减少，许多欧洲国家也有人口减少。联合国预测，到本世纪末我们可能会达到约100亿人口，但随后全球人口将开始下降。
But of course, whilst that's all happening, you're absolutely right, it's different in different parts of the world. Really the two main areas of the world, which have still rapidly growing populations, are the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa. So most other areas of the world now actually either have slowing down population growth or even negative population growth.
当然，虽然这一切都在发生，你完全正确，不同地区的情况是不同的。实际上，现在世界上仅有中东和撒哈拉以南非洲这两个地区的人口仍在迅速增长。因此，现在世界上的大多数其他地区，人口增长都在减缓，甚至是负增长。
So in order for us to reproduce ourselves, a man and a woman need to have, on average, 2.1 children. You need the extra point one to make sure you get to adulthood yourself. And in the UK, we've been having our total fertility rate, which is the average number of children that a woman would give birth to, if she gave birth according to the average. Our total fertility rate has been much lower than 2.1 since the 1960s. So currently we have 1.8, around 1.8 children.
为了繁衍后代，男性和女性平均需要生育2.1个孩子。这多出来的0.1个孩子是确保你自己能够成年的关键。而在英国，我们的总生育率，即女性平均生育子女的数量，如果按照平均情况下生育，自20世纪60年代以来就比2.1低得多了。目前我们大约有1.8个孩子。
Yeah, so yeah, that's something I didn't know. But how about you mentioned there about population growth? And so a lot of people are saying that the populace of India is going to overtake China in the next couple of decades to become the most popular to country in the world.
嗯，所以，这是我不知道的事情。你提到了关于人口增长的事情，那么很多人都在说印度的人口将在未来几十年内超过中国，成为世界上最受欢迎的国家。
Yeah, not the next couple of decades. I think it's the next couple of years actually. And it may well already have done so. So, but the moment the populations of India and China are very close and it's likely that India will overtake China in the next couple of years. And interestingly though, again, life expectancy in India is improving and fertility is falling, but there are differences between the North and South.
是的，不是下几十年的事。我认为实际上是下几年的事。而且很可能已经发生了。但现在，印度和中国的人口非常接近，很可能在接下来的几年里印度将超过中国。有趣的是，尽管印度的预期寿命正在提高，生育率正在下降，但南北之间存在差异。
Right. So this is comes to the question as if longevity and of developing countries. Like, is it inevitable once the country reaches a certain degree of development that the population begins to age and then eventually that begins to decline?
好的，所以这个问题涉及到长寿和发展中国家的问题。比如说，当一个国家达到一定的发展程度后，人口开始老龄化，最终会开始下降，这是不可避免的吗？
I don't know, that's a complicated question. Yeah, yeah, no. Well, it's precisely the exactly the sort of thing that we're looking at now. And I think, yes, I think that as you reach a certain level of development, then things like public health and nutrition, improve and life expectancy rises. The things that determine whether people have children are slightly more complicated. And so actually you can see in parts of Africa now, which are starting to develop. And so, you're still having large numbers of children. But as you, the society begins to think about education and the costs of children start to rise. Then people start to adjust their child bearing behavior. And of course, if more children are living to adulthood, then then you're slowly adjust it. And then if a country has high infant mortality, then people have a lot of children because they want some of them to survive. So they go hand in hand with each other.
我不知道，那是一个复杂的问题。嗯，是的，不是的。嗯，确切地说，这正是我们正在研究的事情类型。我认为，是的，当你达到一定的发展水平时，公共卫生和营养等方面会得到改善，寿命会延长。决定人们是否要孩子的因素略微更加复杂。因此，实际上现在你可以看到非洲某些地区正在开始发展，仍有大量的孩子。但是随着社会开始思考教育和儿童成本开始上升，人们开始调整他们的生育行为。当然，如果更多的孩子能够活到成年，那么你会逐渐调整。如果一个国家有高婴儿死亡率，那么人们会有很多孩子，因为他们希望其中一些能够存活下来。所以它们彼此相伴。
It's not necessarily the case that we think that the world population will decline. I think rather it will level out. So we happen to be alive at an amazing time really in human history, where we're going through this transition. By the 22nd century or 23rd century, we're very much used to having populations where you've got quite a lot of old people and less young people. But of course, young people become old people. So we're moving from populations where the age structure looks like a pyramid, where there's more people of young ages and fewer people of older ages to an age structure where it looks more like a tower block.
我们并不一定认为世界人口会下降，我认为它会趋于稳定。所以我们现在生活在一个令人惊叹的时代，人类历史上正在经历这一过渡期。到了22世纪或23世纪，我们已经习惯了有相当多的老年人和少年人的人口。但是当然，年轻人会变成老年人。所以我们正在从年龄结构看起来像金字塔的人口中转变，即年轻人更多、老年人较少，到一个年龄结构看起来更像一座塔楼的人口。
So we're moving from a world of a population pyramid, which I think people who studied geography often heard about these population periods to more of a rectangular shape. And this is just a transition, but we've got to find a way as a society to adapt to that transition. So is it a time bomb? Probably not, but it's definitely gained to cause a disruption to the way we do things. So we have to think about if we're all living longer, maybe we organize our life course a bit differently. And we work a bit longer, but maybe not full time, maybe in different ways.
所以，我们正从人口金字塔的世界中转向更多的矩形形状。我认为学过地理的人常常听到这些人口时期。这只是一个过渡阶段，但我们必须找到一种社会适应这种转变的方式。所以这是定时炸弹吗？可能不是，但它肯定会破坏我们做事情的方式。所以我们必须考虑如果我们都能活得更久，也许我们组织我们的生活轨迹稍微有所不同。我们可以工作更长时间，但也许不是全职，可能是以不同的方式。
It's quite thought provoking what the world's going to look like at the end of this century and how the life course is going to change. Yeah, certainly. I really like your tower block versus pyramid analogy, because in reading this, I think the UN have said that in the sometime in the 28th, the population of the earth is actually going to start declining.
看到本世纪末世界将会是什么样子，以及生活轨迹将如何改变，这真是一个令人深思的问题。是的，确实如此。我非常喜欢你的塔楼和金字塔的比喻，因为根据我的阅读，联合国已经表示在28世纪的某个时候，地球人口实际上将开始下降。
You don't think so? Well, I think it will probably take until the end of this century. I think a lot depends, a lot depends on what happens to fertility rates in sub-Saharan Africa. That's the big question.
你不这么认为吗？我想可能需要到本世纪末时间才能实现。很多事情都要看撒哈拉以南非洲的生育率将如何发展而定。这是个重要的问题。
So what do we know about that? Like sub-Saharan Africa, but everyone here is saying we're having fewer children, our physical fertility rate, not this statistical one. The physical one is declining in the Western world, we're less able to make children less willing. Yeah, and some people actually are making a decision not to have children, either for economic reasons or actually for ideological reasons in terms of climate change, for example.
那么我们对这个有什么了解呢？就像撒哈拉以南非洲一样，但人们都说我们的孩子越来越少了，我们的生育能力下降了，而不是这个统计数据。在西方世界，我们的生育能力正在下降，我们变得不那么能生孩子，也不那么愿意。是的，有些人实际上正在决定不要孩子，因经济原因或实际上出于气候变化等意识形态原因。
In Africa, as I said earlier, it's a complicated picture. I mean, there are parts of Africa, which still have relatively high infant mortality rates, so we have to take that into account. And I think there are also social and cultural differences in how children are valued and the meaning of children.
在非洲，正如我之前所说的，情况很复杂。我的意思是，非洲的某些地区仍然存在相对较高的婴儿死亡率，所以我们必须考虑这一点。我认为，孩子的价值和意义在社会和文化方面也存在差异。
So for example, according to the latest UN data, Uganda, for example, they're still having five children, per woman, but in Kenya, the fertility rate is now falling, and it's about three and a half. So as I say, I think it's one of them interesting questions as to what's going to happen.
例如，根据最新的联合国数据，在乌干达，每个女性仍会生育五个孩子，但在肯尼亚，生育率正在下降，约为三个半。所以，我认为这是一个有趣的问题，我们要思考未来会发生什么。
And of course, with high fertility rates and this mortality continues to improve, that means that the population of countries such as Nigeria and Uganda are going to be growing quite rapidly, which then does link to climate change, because these are countries in the world, which are being more affected by climate change than a pattern. Perhaps we are in the UK. So where are these people going to live? And there are going to be some interesting population movements, I think, in the next 50 years.
当然，由于高生育率以及死亡率不断提高，这意味着诸如尼日利亚和乌干达等国家的人口将会迅速增长，这也与气候变化有关，因为这些国家受气候变化的影响比其他国家更为严重，可能甚至比英国还要严重。那么，这些人要住在哪里呢？在未来50年内，我认为会有一些有趣的人口流动。
Yeah, this is like such a complicated issue. Obviously corresponding with this with birth rates, we also have life expectancy going up because of better medicine, better health care and things. So what are we going to do? Because we're all getting older, obviously, but our population is seems to me. I don't know if I'm wrong. Seems to be skiing to be older, like as the birth rate falls, there are more older people.
嗯，这是一个非常复杂的问题。显然，随着出生率的下降，我们的寿命会因为更好的药物、更好的医疗保健和其他因素而越来越长。那么我们该怎么办呢？显然我们都在变老，但我们的人口似乎也在变老。我不知道我是否错了，但似乎随着出生率的下降，老年人口呈现上升趋势。
So this is another thing that we have to consider, isn't it? Yeah, absolutely. So I think one of the critical things is whether we're ageing healthily or not. And there is evidence that we are pushing up the age at which chronic diseases kick in and whether there is a high risk of mortality. Of course, that's not I'm talking in general terms, rather than in specific terms, because different different groups of people suffer from different chronic diseases.
这是我们必须考虑的另一件事情，是吧？没错。所以我认为关键之一是我们是否健康地老化。有证据表明，我们正在延迟慢性疾病发作的年龄，并且是否有高死亡风险。当然，我说的是泛泛而谈，而不是具体的，因为不同的人群患有不同的慢性疾病。
But that's one of the key things is, are we ageing health in? And if we are, then perhaps we should be thinking about the divisions between work and retirement and other things. I think there was an interesting paper from the resolution foundation last week looking at whether we should have different retirement ages in different parts of the UK, reflecting differences in life expectancy. There's lots, there's lots to think about.
但其中一个关键问题是，我们是否在健康地老化？如果是的话，也许我们应该考虑工作与退休等各方面的区别。我认为，上周resolution foundation发表的一篇有趣论文探讨了是否应该在英国不同地区设置不同的退休年龄，以反映寿命的差异。需要考虑的事情有很多，有很多要思考的。
But in general, I would say the challenge for all of us is we are living in an ageing society. So we and we can't change it. It's inevitable consequence of the demographic changes that we're seeing. So we have to think about how we adapt society to take that into account. And when I say society, I mean all aspects work, home, leisure. I mean, I think this is the fascinating and most interesting and most personal thing that people are going to think about.
总的来说，我认为我们所面临的挑战是我们正生活在一个人口老龄化的社会中。我们无法改变这种情况，因为这是人口结构变化的不可避免的后果。因此，我们必须考虑如何使社会适应这种情况。当我说社会时，我指的是工作、家庭、娱乐等所有方面。我认为这是人们将要考虑的最迷人、最有趣和最个人化的事情。
So for example, some provinces in China have been offering, for example, financial incentives to couples to have a second third child, despite their previous history. I mean, that seems a bit crazy. I mean, is there any evidence of that kind of policy working? I think that the evidence is very mixed and pretty weak actually that people don't tend to have children for financial reasons. So I think that there may be at the margins, some people who will go on, if they've wanted to have a second child anyway, then it might bring it forward, might encourage them to do so. But I think that evidence, certainly the evidence from China that I've seen recently is that it's not having a very big impact.
有些中国的省份，例如，尽管他们的个人经历，提供经济激励给夫妻生第二或第三个孩子。我觉得这有点疯狂。这种政策是否真的有效？我认为证据非常混乱，而且很弱，人们通常不会因为经济原因而生孩子。所以我认为可能在边缘上，如果一些人本来就想要生第二个孩子，这可能会提前，可能会鼓励他们这样做。但我认为最近我看到的来自中国的证据表明，它并没有产生很大的影响。
So there was recently, I can't remember who it was, but some let's say, politicians said them, taxing the childless and the UK could help. What are your opinions on that? So we're jumping now from China to the UK. And I do recall that interesting idea. And I think that that was in the context of long-term care. And of course, I would say that the taxes of the childless have gone to pay for the education of the children of people who've had children. So it's not a straightforward as that particular politician.
最近有一些政治家，我忘记是谁了，他们说对无子女的人征税可以对英国有所帮助。你对此有何看法？
我们现在从中国跳跃到英国。我记得这个有趣的想法。我认为这是在长期护理的背景下提出的。当然，我要说，无子女的税款用于支付那些有孩子的人孩子的教育。所以并不像那位政治家说的那么简单。
So probably, and we know from some research that some of our economists, colleagues have done, that the wages of women who don't have children are higher than the wages of women who do. And they're also a penalty to childbirth. So those childless women have already been paying higher taxes on their higher earnings. Interesting proposition, probably not one that I would support without digging into it a little bit more. It's always more complicated.
那么，我们从一些我们经济学家同事所做的研究中知道，未生育的女性的工资比有孩子的女性更高。而且生育也会受到惩罚。因此，那些未生育的女性已经在比赚更多的税。这是一个有趣的命题，可能需要更深入地挖掘才能支持。事情总是更加复杂。
Yeah, that's exactly what I was going to say. This sort of thing is such a thorny problem. It's so difficult. Thankfully, it's not for me to figure out.
嗯，这正是我想说的。这种事情是一个非常棘手的问题。它非常困难。谢天谢地，我不需要去想出解决方法。
So do you think like just governments making more what would you call them family, friendly policies, such as money to cover nurseries? I know from not me personally, but from my friends. I know that they've really struggled with finding the money to do that. Do you think that could help?
那么，你认为政府制定更多的家庭友好政策，比如资助托儿所，会有所帮助吗？我知道我的朋友们曾为这个问题苦恼过，虽然我个人没有。你认为这可能会有帮助吗？
Yeah, there is evidence that countries which have family friendly policies also have higher birth rates. And the classic example is actually some of the Scandinavian countries. So they have the highest fertility rates in Europe at the moment. And they also have the most family friendly policies, both in terms of thinking around child care, but also parental leave and shared parental leave between the father and the mother. I think all of these things do do impact at the margins. Yes.
是的，有证据表明那些有家庭友好政策的国家也有更高的出生率。经典的例子实际上是一些斯堪的纳维亚国家。他们目前欧洲生育率最高。同时，他们在关心儿童看护和父母育婴假期等方面也拥有最为友好的政策。我认为所有这些都会在边缘影响。是的。
So if we think about the age in population, we, one of the big questions comes up with the shortfall in the younger workforce. What's this going to look like? How are we going to solve this problem? Do you think is it is technology going to help us or is it policy or something?
那么，如果我们考虑人口的年龄，其中一个重要问题是年轻劳动力短缺，这会是什么样子呢？我们该如何解决这个问题？你认为技术、政策或其他什么因素能够帮助我们吗？
It's a classic academic answer. It's always a little bit of everything, isn't it? But I think it definitely technology will play a role in terms of changing the productivity per worker. So at the moment, we've actually seen productivity in the UK stalling, if not falling. And so we do need to really understand what is going on there and how we can reverse that and increase productivity.
这是一个典型的学术答案。总是有一点点各种因素，不是吗？但我认为技术肯定会在提高每个工人的生产力方面发挥作用。目前来看，英国的生产力实际上已经停滞不前，甚至有下降的趋势。因此，我们需要真正了解发生了什么，并找到逆转这种趋势、提高生产力的方法。
The thorny question in the UK, particularly in the context of Brexit, is thinking about at a national or a regional level, of course, you can change the number of people you have at working age through migration policies. Do that globally, because globally we don't have people migrating from Mars yet. So globally, the number of workers, older people in the world is, I mean, it is decreasing globally.
在英国，在Brexit的背景下，一个棘手的问题是考虑是在国家层面还是在地区层面思考，当然，您可以通过移民政策来改变您的工作年龄人口数量。在全球范围内进行这样做，因为全球尚未有来自火星的移民。因此，在全球范围内，全球的工人和老年人口数量正在减少，我是说全球。
So at the moment, I think we have around six people age 20 to 64 for every one person age 65. And by 2050, there'll be 3.5 people age 20 to 64 for every person age 65 globally. That's a big challenge. And then your toolkit has to start thinking about, well, how many of those 20 to 64 are working? Can we bring more of them into the workforce, particularly women? So in a lot of the world, particularly outside of Europe, I'm thinking classically right now, Afghanistan is banning its women from working. Well, you know, bring them into the workforce, make them economically active. But also, why do we stop working at 65 if we're going to live to 90?
目前，我认为每位65岁以上的人口，我们有大约六位年龄在20岁到64岁之间的人口。到2050年，全球每位65岁以上的人口将对应3.5位年龄在20岁到64岁之间的人口。这是一个巨大的挑战。那么，你的工具包必须开始思考，有多少20岁到64岁的人在工作？我们能否将更多人纳入劳动力市场，特别是女性？在许多世界各地，特别是在欧洲之外，我现在在经典地思考，阿富汗正在禁止妇女工作。那么，让她们参与到劳动力市场中，使她们成为经济活跃分子。但是，如果我们能够活到90岁，为什么在65岁时停止工作呢？
So I know the French are on strike at this, you know, trying to get the retirement age reduced. But so all of these things, I think, things we're going to have to think about as a society over the next 20 to 30 years.
我知道法国人正在罢工，试图降低退休年龄。但是我认为，我们作为社会在未来20到30年中需要考虑所有这些事情。
Yeah, well, I think, as in the being taught recently that the retirement age is going to be raised to 68 here in the UK, like how do you feel about that? Is that a good thing?
嗯，我认为，最近被教育，退休年龄在英国将会提高到68岁，你对此有何感想？这是好事吗？
I think it's probably something we need to do to recognize the changes in life expectancy and issues we've been talking about. You know, our politicians have been on the front foot, we're thinking this through because these population changes aren't a surprise. I mean, someone who's going to be 65 this year was born 65 years ago, so we can kind of work it out.
我认为这可能是我们需要做的事情，以认识到我们一直在谈论的预期寿命和问题的变化。你知道的，我们的政客一直在前线，我们正在仔细考虑这个问题，因为这些人口变化并不令人惊讶。我的意思是，今年将要65岁的人是65年前出生的，所以我们可以大致算出来。
But there are some issues that not everybody has benefited from the improvements in health equally. So we do still see big differences in life expectancy by different social groups, by different occupational groups, by different ethnic groups in the UK. So I think going forward, we might need to be a bit more nuanced about the changes in retirement age, because not everybody is going to actually live to 65 or live a long time after that.
有一些问题是并不是所有人都能从健康改善中受益。所以我们仍然能够看到在英国不同社会群体，职业群体和不同族群之间寿命的巨大差异。因此，我认为在未来我们可能需要更加细致地考虑退休年龄的变化，因为并非每个人都能活到65岁或之后很长时间。
Yeah, that's a raise a big question with the NHS or healthcare globally. How do we take care of, you know, as people age, they get ill, how do we take care of them?
哎，这引起了NHS或全球医疗保健的一个大问题。随着人们年龄增长，他们会生病，我们该如何照顾他们呢？
Yeah, oh, we're back. Are we local or global? I think either way, I guess the challenges are still there. I mean, one of the key things, I think, is for us to be thinking much more proactively about informing people of how they can improve their own health and reduce their risks of ill health as they move through the life course.
嗯，哦，我们回来了。我们是本地还是全球的？无论哪种方式，我想挑战还是存在的。我的意思是，我认为其中一个关键的事情是我们要更积极地考虑怎样告知人们如何改善自己的健康，以及在他们穿越人生过程中减少患病风险。
So thinking about prevention, first and foremost, public health, getting people to adapt more healthy behaviors, reduce screenings. So thinking about how we promote healthy living, get people moving more, that's the first thing, and then of course dealing with ill health.
所以我们考虑预防时，首先要考虑公共卫生，让人们适应更健康的行为，减少筛查。思考如何促进健康生活，让人们更加活动，这是首要的事情，然后当然也要处理疾病问题。
We have had amazing medical breakthroughs over the last 100 years, and we probably still have some more going forward. So like, by way of summing up, you know, what do you think? Are you optimistic that we're going to be able to cope with the issues that are caused by our age in population?
过去100年来，我们取得了惊人的医学突破，而且可能还会有更多。所以，总之，你认为怎么样呢？你对我们是否有信心应对由人口老龄化带来的问题？
You know, we can get there. I think I have to be optimistic. I think the aging of the population has come about because of the advances in society. And I think we have, it's not going to be easy. We're going to have to think about how we rise to the challenge. It's going to probably mean changing the way we do things.
你知道，我们能够达成目标。我认为我必须要保持乐观。人口老龄化是社会发展的必然结果。我们需要面对这个挑战，这并不容易。我们需要思考如何应对，可能需要改变我们的做事方式。
So we're not all going to be able to consume quite as much as we used to. We're not all going to be able to retire as early as we want to. But then the life course is changing. So it's something to be celebrated that we're living longer. We need to celebrate it and try and find a way to get through it.
所以我们不能像过去一样消费过度了。我们不能按我们的意愿那么早退休。但是生命历程正在改变，所以我们应该庆祝我们活得更长了。我们需要庆祝它，试图找到一种度过它的方法。
That was the University of Southampton's Professor Jane Falkinham. Thank you for listening to this episode of Instant Genius, brought to you from the team behind BBC Science Fakers magazine. The current issue of BBC Science Fakers is out now. Pick up a copy wherever you buy your favourite magazines or download a digital copy from your preferred app store. You can of course also find us online at sciencefakers.com.
那是南安普顿大学的珍妮·福金汉教授。感谢收听这期由BBC Science Fakers杂志团队带来的《Instant Genius》。BBC Science Fakers当前的问题已经发布，可以在您买常读杂志的地方获取一份纸质副本或从您喜欢使用的应用商店下载数字版。当然，您也可以在sciencefakers.com上在线找到我们。