2 High-Growth Companies to Watch
发布时间 2023-05-06 16:00:00 来源
摘要
Just because a stock is down 50% doesn’t mean that the business is broken. (Or does it?) Ricky Mulvey caught up with Motley Fool Senior Analyst Yasser El-Shimy to talk about some higher growth companies whose stocks have taken a hit. They discuss: - How investors can approach growth stocks with a venture capital lens. - Profitability questions for a streaming data company. - A second look at a space company that went public via SPAC. Companies discussed: CFLT, LMT, SPCE, RKLB Host: Ricky Mulvey Guest: Yasser El-Shimy Engineer: Tim Sparks Production Assist: Alex Friedman
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So you're gonna have your ups and downs in the short and medium terms thanks to interest rates, thanks to fiscal policies, thanks to a lot of different factors, macroeconomic factors, recessions and so on. But guess what? As Peter Lynch once said, we've had historically 13 recessions and we've had 13 recoveries out of those recessions.
在短期和中期内，由于利率、财政政策以及很多不同的宏观经济因素，你会经历起伏。但你猜怎么着？正如彼得·林奇曾经说过的，历史上我们经历过13次经济衰退，而在这些衰退中，我们也经历了13次复苏。
I'm Mary Long and that's Motley Fool, senior analyst Yasser Elchemy. If a growth stock gets cut in half, is it on sale or just less expensive? Ricky Mulvey caught up with Yasser to discuss the macro landscape for high growth companies, a mission critical software company now treating at half its IPO price and a rocket maker with galactic ambitions.
我是Mary Long，旁边是Motley Fool的高级分析师Yasser Elchemy。如果一只成长股票贬值50%，它是在打折还是仅仅是便宜了一些？Ricky Mulvey采访了Yasser，讨论了高成长公司的宏观环境、一家关键软件公司现在以其IPO价格的一半交易和一个有银河野心的火箭制造商。
When others get fearful it's time to do something, I forget the rest of the quote. Anyway, joining us now to talk about some strong, growthy companies in a down cycle is Motley Fool's senior analyst Yasser Elchemy. Thanks for joining us on this journey.
当其他人感到害怕时，就是采取行动的时候了，我忘记了这个引言的其他部分。无论如何，现在加入我们来谈谈一些在衰退周期中表现强劲、成长迅速的公司的是摩莉富的高级分析师雅瑟尔·艾尔开米。感谢您加入我们的旅程。
Hi Ricky, good to be here. When I think about investing in super growthy companies, I almost think of it as like a venture capital approach. Would you agree with that?
嗨，Ricky，很高兴来到这里。当我考虑投资于高速成长的公司时，我几乎将其视为风险投资的方法。你同意吗？
Yeah, so our Motley Fool co-founder and chief rule breaker David Garner has in fact almost coined that term of a VC approach towards public investing. In that approach you look for young, innovative, relatively small companies with massive runways for future growth, great products, invested leadership, and ideally a purposeful mission.
是的，我们的Motley Fool创始人和首席破规者David Garner几乎创造了这种VC投资公共投资的术语。在这种方法中，您寻找具有未来增长潜力、出色产品、投资领导力和理想的使命的年轻、创新、相对较小的公司。
Ideally, also you want to have your portfolio reflect your best vision for the future, and that's kind of like even when you see in the VC world where a lot of investors tend to back companies that they feel strongly about, you may want to also do that with your own personal investment portfolio. One thing we have to keep in mind, also with the VC style of investing, is that VC investors tend to hold their investments over very long periods of time, and even tend to upsize their stakes in those companies that show themselves to be resilient and successful. So as David Garner would say, you should add to your winners, what are your flowers and trim your weeds?
理想情况下，您肯定希望您的投资组合能够反映您对未来的最佳视觉，这有点像在风险投资领域中，许多投资者往往会支持他们认为强烈的公司，您也可以在自己的个人投资组合中采取这种策略。然而，我们也必须记住，像风险投资这样的投资方式，投资者往往会长期持有股票，甚至会增加那些表现出坚韧和成功的公司的股份。所以，正如大卫·加纳所说，您应该加强胜利者，即您的优势，同时修剪您的失败者？
I'd also say that the VC's tend to have a couple of big winners that make up for, in a lot of cases, the majority of losses. When it comes to my style of investing, I like to have a mix of things. Do you go for this high growth approach for all of your stocks?
我也要说，风险投资商们往往会拥有几个大赢家，这些大赢家能够弥补很多情况下的大部分损失。就我的投资风格而言，我喜欢多元化。你所有的股票都采用高成长的方式吗？
No, I don't. You're absolutely right by the way that only a few of the companies that you'd invest in using that VC approach would work out. Most of the companies that you'd invest in may not generate the kind of returns you were hoping for. However, over a very long period of time, those companies, those investments that do work out and those companies that do perform are going to generate hopefully the kind of returns that should more than make up for any losses you've incurred, holding those, let's call them weeds for now.
不，我没有那么想。顺便说一下，您是对的，用风险投资的方法只有少数几家公司会执行成功。您投资的大多数公司可能不会产生您期望的回报。然而，在非常长的时间内，那些成功的公司，那些成功的投资将产生希望的回报，这些回报应该能够弥补您可能遭受的任何损失，而持有那些我们现在称为杂草的公司。
But back to your bigger question, which is kind of investing strategy here, I would say that the rule-breaker style of investing or the high growth style of investing that I follow does not represent the entirety of my portfolio. I tend to try and invest across many different strategies as someone who thinks of investing in terms of decades as opposed to years. I do lean more towards the rule-breaker style of investing because I know that I have the stomach to hold those companies over very long periods of time and stomach the volatility. But not everybody can do that obviously. It's a really hard thing to do. But even so, even if I can't stomach those kinds of churns, those kinds of gyrations and those stocks, I still like to hold companies that are more stable or established. They own my fair share of what I consider to be balanced growth companies, small mid cap profitable growth, even value sometimes.
回到你的更大的问题上，也就是投资策略，我想说的是，我遵循的破规者投资风格或高增长投资风格并不代表了我投资组合的全部。作为一个把投资考虑在十年时间而非几年时间内的人，我倾向于尝试在多个不同的策略上进行投资。我更倾向于破规者投资风格，因为我知道我有耐心，在很长的时间内持有这些公司并承受波动。但显然，并不是每个人都能做到这一点。这是一件非常难的事情。但即使如此，即使我不能承受那些公司的这种翻江倒海的变化，我仍然喜欢持有更稳定或更成熟的公司。它们持有我认为是平衡增长公司，小型中型盈利增长，甚至有时会有价值投资的公正份额。
So I don't say that I'm an ideologue when it comes to investing philosophy. Being an ideologue and an investor seems to not work out for many of them. Being a growth investor was much, much easier a couple of years ago.
因此，当谈到投资哲学时，我不会说自己是一个教条主义者。许多人发现同时成为教条主义者和投资者并不奏效。几年前，成为增长投资者要容易得多。
The aphorism don't fight the Fed is carrying out right now. As earlier this week, while the Fed signaled that it's going to pause its interest rate hikes, the risk-free rate of return right now is above 5%. Feel free to disagree. But I think this matters for growth investors because not caring about Fed actions was a lot easier a few years ago. And now it would seem that growth investors have to pay a lot more attention to it.
这句箴言“不要与美联储作对”现在正在得到实施。本周早些时候，美联储表示将暂停加息，但风险无息收益率现在已经超过了5%。如果不同意，可以表达。但我认为这对于成长型投资者来说是很重要的，因为几年前不关心美联储的行动还容易得多。现在似乎需要更多地关注它。
Yeah, you're definitely right. I mean, if you just take a look at Twitter and in bull markets, everybody's a growth investor. In bear markets, everybody wants to park their cash in the bank, just get that interest or even go after dividend paying stocks. But here at the fool, we are fundamental bottoms up investors. We'll like love to look at companies. And we think that fundamental company performance is the main determinant of returns over time.
是的，你完全正确。我的意思是，如果你只是看看 Twitter 上的情况以及在牛市中，每个人都是成长投资者。在熊市中，每个人都想把钱存入银行，只是获取利息，甚至追求分红支付的股票。但在这里，我们是基本面投资者。我们喜欢关注公司，认为公司的基本表现是长期回报的主要决定因素。
So you're going to have your ups and downs in the short and medium terms thanks to interest rates, thanks to fiscal policies, thanks to a lot of different factors, macroeconomic factors, recessions and so on. But guess what? As Peter Lynch once said, we have had historically 13 recessions and we've had 13 recoveries out of those recessions. And if you zoom out and do not get consumed by the headlines of the day, you're likely to do well over time.
短期和中期，由于利率、财政政策、宏观经济因素、经济衰退等各种因素，你会经历起起伏伏。但猜猜怎么着？正如彼得·林奇曾经说过的，我们历史上经历了13次经济衰退，从这些衰退中我们也经历了13次复苏。如果你将目光放长远，不被当天的头条所迷惑，你很可能在长期中做得不错。
As long as of course you put all of your energy and focus into selecting companies that you fundamentally believe in that you think can outperform the market and make money over time. So let's dive into some of those growthy companies that have been hit, not just Carvana, one of them that you brought to the table is Confluent ticker CFLT.
当然，只要你将全部精力和注意力投入到选择那些你基本上认为能够在市场上表现出色、并且能够长期赚钱的公司中，就可以了。因此，我们来了解一些增长型公司，它们受到了打击，不仅仅是Carvana，你提到的其中一个是Confluent股票代码CFLT。
This is one that has been cut in half since its IPO, despite a bump on surprising earnings. This is a tricky company to describe even from watching YouTube videos and tutorials about it. So to set the table, what does this company do? Yeah, you wouldn't be the only one to have difficulty to kind of fully understand what they do.
这家公司自IPO以来股价下跌了一半，尽管因意外收益而有所回升。即使通过观看YouTube视频和教程，描述这家公司也很棘手。那么，这家公司具体做什么呢？是的，你可能不是唯一一个难以完全理解他们业务的人。
So think of the movie, everything everywhere, all at once. Before Conflent, companies used to collect data, store it either in data center or on premise or in the cloud, and then analyze it and act on it. Conflent founders, they thought that system was inefficient, slow and full blind spots. And so they invented Apache Kafka, which is an open source data streaming platform that lets you move and process data in real time.
想象一下电影中的场景，一切都在同时向各个方向发生。在Conflent之前，公司通常会收集数据，将其存储在数据中心、本地或云端，并对其进行分析并采取行动。而Conflent的创始人们认为这个系统效率低下，速度慢且存在视野盲区。因此，他们发明了Apache Kafka，这是一个开源的数据流平台，可以让您实时地移动和处理数据。
Now, as soon as data is received from the source, it is immediately transmitted across the entire tech stack of the business, analyzed by all applications and software programs and acted upon again in real time. Now Conflent as a company was built to fully maintain, manage and improve on Apache with what they called Conflent Kafka. So let me give this analogy and maybe this is one that only train enthusiasts can fully appreciate, but I'll make it anyway.
现在，一旦数据从来源处收到，就会立即传输到企业的整个技术堆栈中，在所有应用和软件程序中进行分析，并再次实时执行。现在，Conflent作为一家公司，旨在完全维护、管理和改进Apache，并称之为Conflent Kafka。因此，让我举个比喻，也许只有火车爱好者才能完全欣赏，但我还是要说一下。
If Apache was a train cart that moved products from point A to point B, Conflent is a whole rail network with autonomously driven trains that takes stuff everywhere all the time. Now, companies of course have the option to use the open source Apache Kafka version, but they will unfortunately need to maintain or dedicate many members of their IT team to operate and sustain that program. And that takes them away from doing the kind of work that they can actually be valuable to the company's core product or value added. So the ROI for many companies using Conflent Kafka is significant as it cuts down on these operating expenses by a large margin.
如果说Apache只是一个从A点到B点运输货物的火车车厢，那么Confluent就是一个拥有自主驱动列车的整个铁路网络，随时随地将物品运送到各处。当然，公司可以选择使用开源的Apache Kafka版本，但不幸的是，他们需要维护或专门指派多名IT成员来运营和维护该程序。这会让他们远离可以为公司的核心产品或附加值做出实际贡献的工作。因此，对于许多使用Confluent Kafka的公司来说，投资回报率非常显著，因为它大大减少了这些运营支出。
So I know the train analogy, the train network, the train cars, data and motion, I'll pretend that I got it, but what's a real life example where one might see Conflent's technology and action? So actually chances are you have used the technology even though you may not have actually realized you are using the Kafka technology, but one good example of that is Instacart.
我知道火车的比喻，火车网络，火车车厢，数据和运动。我会假装我已经明白了，但是能否给一个现实生活中的例子来说明Confluent的技术和应用呢？实际上，你很可能已经使用过这项技术，尽管你可能没有意识到你正在使用Kafka技术，但其中一个很好的例子就是Instacart。
The service like Instacart needs to have real-time visibility and instantaneous analysis of everything that's happening all the time. Where the shoppers are at all times, what products are they collecting, what products are missing and therefore they need to suggest replacements for and give customers a time estimate for the order arrival and so on. That's just one example. Another example is if someone uses your debit card in an unusual location for an unusual purchase or withdrawal, the transaction can immediately be flagged as fraudulent. The bank puts a hold on the card. It notifies you. All of this happening instantaneously and across the board.
像Instacart这样的服务需要实时的可见性和即时分析，时刻了解购物者的位置，他们正在收集哪些产品，哪些产品缺货需要建议替代品，并为客户提供订单到达时间的估计等等。这只是其中的一个例子。另一个例子是，如果有人在不寻常的地点进行不寻常的购买或取款，他们使用的借记卡交易会被立即标记为欺诈行为。银行会冻结这张卡，并通知您，所有这些都是即时发生并跨部门进行的。
Another example could be a stock exchange where millions of buy-in cell orders are constantly flowing through and you need to execute in those in the most efficient and transparent manner possible. And so we'll find like a stock exchange like you're next, for example, in Europe deploys the confluent Kafka technology. So I could go on, but Kafka is essentially what enables a lot of this real-time action and it quickly becomes mission-critical, not just a nice to have software. It's when you don't have time to go back and forth from database to action with whatever that action might be in a stock exchange, inventory at a grocery store for Instacart or debit cards when someone's using it in an unfamiliar place.
另一个例子是股票交易所，数百万的买入单不断流动，你需要以最高效、最透明的方式执行这些单子。因此，我们会发现像欧洲的下一个股票交易所一样，部署了Kafka技术。所以我可以继续讲下去，但Kafka基本上是使得许多实时操作得以实现的关键，它很快变成了不仅仅是必要的软件，而是必不可少的。当你没有时间在数据库和行动之间来回跳转时，它就变得非常关键，无论是在股票交易所、Instacart的也门库存或是当有人在陌生地方使用借记卡。
I want to talk about the financials a little bit with Confluent because I like it has high-inside ownership. That's good. It's a sticky product. That's mission-critical. That's good. But it also loses gobs and gobs of cash. And it's latest quarter. It's operating loss about equal its total revenue. And this seems to be a habit of having a massive operating loss. Maybe it's because Confluent gives out a lot of free software. What's it need to do to be profitable?
我想稍微谈一下Confluent的财务状况，因为我喜欢它具有高内部所有权。这很好。它是一款粘性产品。这是关键任务。这也很好。但它也亏损了很多钱。在最新的一季中，它的营运亏损大约等于总收入。这似乎成为一种拥有巨额营运亏损的习惯。也许这是因为Confluent提供了很多免费软件。它需要做什么才能盈利呢？
Well, you're absolutely right. They have been burning through a lot of cash. But it's important to put things in context.
嗯，你说得完全正确。他们一直在烧掉大量的现金。但是把事情放在正确的背景下是非常重要的。
First, I would say that Confluent is still a relatively young company less than 10 years old. And even within those nine years of existence that they've been at, not even fully nine yet. But even during those years, they've started out with a Confluent program, which is an on-premise offering.
首先，我想说Confluent是一家相对较年轻的公司，成立不到10年。即使在这九年的存在中，他们也没有完全到达九年。但是即使在这些年中，他们已经开始了Confluent计划，这是一项本地提供的服务。
And they've moved from that to Confluent Cloud, which is a hybrid or cloud first offering that any company can use. And so they're still kind of introduced, still in the part of introducing the market to what this product is and the full capability of how this product can be used to transform the business and give good returns on investment.
他们已经从那个过渡到了Confluent Cloud，这是一个混合或云先的产品，任何公司都可以使用。因此，他们仍然是在向市场介绍这个产品，以及这个产品的全部功能，以及如何将其用于改变业务并获得良好的投资回报。
So understandably, they have prioritized growth over profitability in this young age. Now, secondly, the company has shown it understands that the 0% interest rates are not coming back anytime soon. And the time has come to prioritize self-funding.
显而易见地，他们在这个年幼的阶段更注重增长而忽略了盈利。其次，这家公司已经展示出他们明白零利率不会很快回到我们身边。他们现在必须优先考虑自我融资。
And so they've guided towards reaching adjusted EBITDA profitability this year and positive free cash flow next year. All while growing sales by nearly 30% year over year, they have been also rationalizing their workforce, optimizing their sales, focusing on high return projects.
因此，他们已经制定了计划，希望在今年达到调整后的EBITDA盈利，并在明年实现正面的自由现金流。在年复一年将销售额增长近30%的同时，他们也在精简员工、优化销售业务、专注于高回报项目。
And some of their expenses have been going towards going to prospective clients, demonstrating what Confluent can do for their business and signing them up. That is still important, but not maybe top of the list anymore. And maybe some of the existing big clients can provide higher profitability for Confluent. And that's what they're going to prioritize.
他们的一些开支用于前往潜在客户展示Confluent可以为他们的业务做些什么，并签约。这仍然很重要，但可能不再是首要任务。或许现有的一些大客户可以给Confluent带来更高的利润率，他们将优先考虑这些客户。
I got two pushbacks for you. From the latest call CEO, Jay Krepp said quote, the Confluent has less than five Kafka engineers on call for tens of thousands of production in Kafka clusters. That gives us a cost structure for operation that we believe is a 1000 times better than our customers end quote. So it seems like they're being efficient on labor costs from the call.
我给你带来了两个讯息。最近一次CEO的电话会议中，Jay Krepp表示：“在数以万计的Kafka集群中，Confluent只有不到五名Kafka工程师实时待命。”这样一来，他们的运营成本结构比我们的客户要好1000倍。从电话中我们可以看出，他们在劳动力成本方面非常高效。
But I haven't seen that reflected in the company's operating margins. And also, while the company is young, it's already had a huge adoption cycle more than more than half of Fortune 500 companies use Confluent software as of 2021. So that's one reason I'm a or two reasons I should say I remain a little skeptical and hesitant.
但我没有看到公司的营收利润反映出这一点。此外，虽然该公司年轻，但它已经经历了巨大的采用周期，2021年超过一半的财富500强公司使用 Confluent 软件。因此，这是我保持怀疑和犹豫的一个或两个原因。
So let me start with the last part of your question first about the use the wide adoption of Kafka. Now it's important to actually kind of make clear that when we say that 75% of Fortune 500 companies use Kafka, they're in fact using Apache Kafka, which is the free version, the free open source version of the software. So this in fact gives Confluent an opportunity to sell them on its flagship product and move them into that self-managed or fully automated, I would say, data streaming platform that Confluent offers.
那么，先回答你关于 Kafka 广泛应用的问题中的最后一部分。现在，需要明确的是，当我们说 75％ 的财富 500 强公司使用 Kafka 时，它们实际上是使用 Apache Kafka，也就是免费的开源软件版本。因此，这实际上为 Confluent 提供了一个机会，将客户转移到其旗舰产品，并使其进入 Confluent 提供的自我管理或完全自动化的数据流平台。
Now, you know, they actually estimate their total addressable market at $60 billion, whereas in fact, their trailing 12-month sales came at just over $600 million. So, so, you know, a lot of green growth left. Now, going to your first question about their operating expenses, I would say that that's not managing the data streaming platform has not been where Confluent expenses have gone.
现在，你知道了，他们实际上估计其总可寻址市场价值为600亿美元，而实际上，他们过去12个月的销售额只有略超过6亿美元。因此，可以说还有很多绿色增长空间。现在，回答你第一个关于他们运营费用的问题，我认为Confluent的费用并没有花在管理数据流平台上。
They've gone mostly towards building servers, for example, which is part of the value proposition that they're offering to their prospective customers. When you go to a modern enterprise that has potentially hundreds of different servers with dozens of tech staff, IT staff, who is literally manning the data streaming platform, the Apache Kafka, the open source version, and you're telling them, you don't need to worry about any of this.
他们主要朝向建立服务器，这是他们向潜在客户提供的价值主张的一部分。当你去现代化的企业，那里可能有数百个不同的服务器和数十名技术人员、IT人员，他们实际上操作数据流平台，Apache Kafka的开源版本，你告诉他们，你不需要担心这些。
You don't need the servers. You don't need, you know, most of the IT people to dedicate all of their time and energy towards, you know, managing this platform. We will do all of this for you from the back end. So, the value proposition here is very clear to prospective customers that the total cost of ownership here, the return on investment from migrating towards the Confluent product, the fully automated managed product is going to actually save them a lot of time and a lot of money.
你们不需要服务器，也不需要大部分 IT 人员将全部时间和精力用于管理这个平台。我们将从后端为您完成所有这些工作。因此，对潜在客户来说，这里的价值主张非常明确，即采用 Confluent 产品进行迁移的总拥有成本、投资回报将通过完全自动化的托管产品节约大量时间和金钱。
So, that to me is definitely one of the strong points that Confluent has. Let's move to a bleeding edge tech company or more bleeding edge, which is Rocket Lab USA. This launches satellites and is working on a neutron rocket. It is a space startup that went public via SPAC.
对我来说，这绝对是Confluent的优势之一。让我们移步到一家更先进的技术公司——Rocket Lab USA。该公司发射卫星并正在研发中子火箭。这是一家太空初创公司，通过SPAC上市。
Unfortunately, that gives me vibes and memories of Virgin Galactic. What does this company do? What's the case for Rocket Lab? Oh boy, you don't want to be in the same sentence as Virgin Galactic, if you're a space company. I personally have never understood the case for space tourism.
不幸的是，这让我想起了维珍银河公司的氛围和回忆。这家公司是做什么的？Rocket Lab公司的情况如何？哦，天啊，如果你是一家太空公司，你不想与维珍银河公司被放在同一句话中。我个人从来没有理解过太空旅游的案例。
I mean, who would spend hundreds of thousands of dollars to fly just to the edge of the earth and come back down in a few minutes, but I'm probably not the targeted audience here.
我的意思是，谁会花费数十万美元飞行到地球的边缘，只为在几分钟内回来呢？但我可能不是这里的目标受众。
Yeah, so Rocket Lab is not one of those companies. Yes, it came public via SPAC and that will forever tarnish any company that that ever did so after the painful experience of 2021-2022. But, you know, I think there is something here.
是的，Rocket Lab不是那种公司。是的，它是通过SPAC上市的，这将永远玷污在2021-2022年的痛苦经历之后所做的任何公司。但是，你知道的，我认为这里有一些东西。
This is a company that is focused squarely in the commercial government and research space use cases. It has a long and flawless record of successful rocket launches. It has plenty of serious customers including NASA, the US Space Force, and many universities and communication companies across the world.
这是一家专注于商业、政府和研究领域的使用案例的公司。它拥有漫长且无瑕疵的成功火箭发射记录。它拥有许多严肃的客户，包括美国宇航局、美国空军，以及世界各地的许多大学和通信公司。
So, you know, why do I think it's a good investment? Well, you know, the company is fast becoming another top dog with SpaceX and the commercial space industry. Launching rockets carrying satellites and returning them successfully is not easy as it sounds. It is literally rocket science.
所以，你知道，我为什么认为这是一个好的投资呢？嗯，你知道，这家公司正在与SpaceX和商业太空行业一起迅速成为另一个领头羊。发射运载卫星的火箭并成功返回并不像听起来那么容易。这真的是一门火箭科学。
We have had and we have seen so many field launches by so many new entrants and new comers into this space, including the likes of relativity space, firefly, astrospace, and I could go on even SpaceX. They just had a field launch with their starship a couple of weeks ago. So, rocket lab can in fact be proud of its pristine launch record here.
我们已经看到很多新进入者和新人在这个领域进行了很多现场发射，包括relativity space、firefly、astrospace等，甚至还有SpaceX。他们在几周前刚刚进行了星际飞船的现场发射。因此，火箭实验室实际上可以为自己在这里的完美发射记录感到自豪。
Second, I would say that we have we actually have a global shortage anticipated global shortage of launch capacity in the coming years. We may currently have over 100,000 licenses obtained to launch satellites in into space, but nowhere near enough capacity to get them there. And that is even if we assume the likes of blue origin and united launch alliance will be successful to get their rockets off the ground and back safely.
其次，我想说的是，未来几年我们预计将会出现全球发射能力短缺的情况。尽管我们目前已经获得了超过10万个卫星发射许可证，但我们没有足够的能力把它们送上太空。这还是在假设像蓝色起源和联合发射联盟能够成功地将他们的火箭安全地升空的情况下。
So, you know, finally, you know, just looking even at the numbers, I could tell you that the consensus analyst estimates on S&P cap IQ are for sales to quadruple over the next five years and for rocket, rocket lab to become profitable in two years.
那么，你知道，最终，即使只看数字，我也能告诉你，S&P cap IQ上的分析师共识估计是，Rocket Lab在未来五年内的销售额将增长了四倍，并且在两年内将实现盈利。
I can also tell you that when I build my model, lower assumptions and those but the analysts have, I find the shares to offer plenty of upside opportunity. And just one thing I keenly look for in rule breaker type high growth investments is that I want to find them at evaluation that is reasonable against expected future earnings and less than 10 times 2026 EV EBIT multiples for such a high growth and young company with clear competitive advantages. Sounds good to me as a patient long term investor. So much has to go right, of course, for these earnings to flow through and for this investment to be successful. And that's why, you know, trust in management, product and business strategy becomes key. But of course, things could go wrong like with many of these kinds of companies. Yeah, I'm really knocking on wood after you said flawless launch record and clear something up EV to EBIT basically means the enterprise value of the company, how much it's worth compared to the company's earnings before interest in taxes.
我还可以告诉你，在建模时，我发现股票提供了大量的上涨机会，只要我的假设比分析师更低。在寻找规则突破类型的高增长投资时，我特别关注合理估值相对于预期未来收益和不到2026年10倍EV EBIT多重的股票。对于一个高增长且年轻的公司来说，具有明显竞争优势，这听起来对我这个有耐心的长期投资者很有吸引力。当然，这需要很多事情顺利才能实现这种收益，投资才会成功。因此，信任管理、产品和业务战略变得至关重要。但当然，像许多这样的公司一样，事情也可能出错。是啊，在你说毫不出错的发射记录和清晰的EV to EBIT之后，我真的在敲木头。EV to EBIT基本上意味着企业价值与公司利润前利息和税收相比。
Startups are great, but it seems like size matters in this case can rocket lab reasonably compete against the aforementioned SpaceX against Boeing, which builds jet engines as well. Yeah, well, size does matter, but not in the way you think. This field has been dominated by very large rockets carrying very large payloads. SpaceX is a top dog here. No question about it.
创业公司很棒，但在这种情况下似乎大小很重要，火箭实验室能否合理地与上述的 SpaceX 和同样生产喷气发动机的波音公司竞争呢？是的，大小确实很重要，但不是你想的那样。这个领域一直被搭载很大有效载荷的巨型火箭所主导，SpaceX在这里是一家顶尖企业，毫无疑问。
Rocket lab, however, has carved a niche of launching reusable small rockets because they cost less to launch and are faster to schedule for takeoff. The electron has a sticker, which is made by Rocket Lab, has a sticker price of $7.5 million compared to SpaceX's Falcon 9, which will cost you $60 million. That's a big difference.
Rocket Lab已经在发射可重复使用的小火箭方面开辟了一个市场，因为它们的发射成本较低，启动计划更快。Electron火箭上有一个由Rocket Lab制作的标签，售价为750万美元，而SpaceX的猎鹰9则需要6千万美元。这是一个很大的差距。
Also, Rocket Lab, unlike SpaceX is a one-stop shop for most space needs, including satellite building, components, software, operations command center, radios and solar panel systems, etc, etc. And this is why we have seen defense companies like Lockheed Martin, placing orders with Rocket Lab for these kinds of systems.
与SpaceX不同，Rocket Lab提供了大多数空间需求的一站式解决方案，包括卫星建造、组件、软件、操作指挥中心、无线电和太阳能电池系统等。这就是为什么我们看到像洛克希德·马丁这样的国防公司向Rocket Lab订购这些系统的原因。
You know, in defense, the ability to launch quickly is critical, and Rocket Lab can offer that thanks to its three launch pads, including in New Zealand, where there are fewer airspace restrictions on launches than here in the US, and because they can, or they're working towards refurbishing the rockets and launching them pretty quickly soon after.
你知道，在防御方面，快速发射的能力非常关键，而Rocket Lab能够提供这个能力，原因是他们拥有三个发射台，其中包括新西兰，那里的发射空域限制比美国少一些，而且他们可以或正在努力修复火箭并很快发射它们。
Finally, Rocket Lab is working on neutron, which is a larger rocket capable of carrying up to 13,000 kg payload into the lower Earth orbit, 2000 kg to the Moon, or 1500 kg to Mars and Venus. It should also be capable of human space flight, but the primary goal of this one is to compete with SpaceX on launching very heavy satellites and mega constellations of satellites.
最后，Rocket Lab 正在研发一种名为“中子”的更大型火箭，能够将重达13,000公斤的有效载荷送入低地球轨道，2,000公斤的有效载荷送至月球，或1,500公斤的有效载荷送至火星和金星。它还应该能够进行载人航天任务，但其主要目标是与 SpaceX 在发射非常重的卫星和卫星超级星座方面进行竞争。
Paragraph 1: One potential yellow flag about Rocket Lab that our colleague Alex Friedman brought up is that it has some, like, pretty poor reviews on Glassdoor, I think just 50% of the employee base would recommend working there to a friend. Is that a yellow flag for you? So, yes and no. I mean, it definitely gives me pause.
第一段：我们的同事亚历克斯·弗里德曼提出了Rocket Lab的一个潜在缺点，就是它在Glassdoor上的评价相当糟糕，我认为只有50%的员工会推荐朋友在那里工作。这对你来说是一个黄旗标吗？是的，也不是。我的意思是，这确实让我有所顾虑。
Paragraph 2: When I look at Glassdoor for ratings, I do obviously want to see the higher ratings, more positive ratings for the CEO, for the company culture, and so on. But it's not the complete picture. Again, if we take a step back, here we have a management team that hails from a fairly impressive group of companies and organizations, including General Dynamics, NASA, SpaceX, Broadcom, Airjet, Rocket Island, among others.
当我在Glassdoor上查看评级时，显然我希望看到更高的评级，更积极的CEO评价，更积极的公司文化评价等等。但这不是全部的画面。再次回归到我们的管理团队，他们来自一些相当出色的公司和机构，包括通用动力公司、NASA、SpaceX、Broadcom、Airjet、Rocket Island等等。
Paragraph 3: We also have very strong ownership by Cion Founder, Peter Beckwell, around 11.5% of the company. And even more confusingly, when you look at other company review websites, in this case, comparably, for example, they have much higher scores. So they give a CEO rating of 90 out of 100 and, you know, executive rating of 75 out of 100.
第三段：我们还有一个非常强大的创始人，彼得·贝克威尔，持有公司11.5%的股份。更加令人困惑的是，在其他公司评论网站上，比如comparably，他们的评分要高得多。比如他们给CEO的评分是100分中的90分，高管评分是100分中的75分。
Paragraph 4: So it's kind of a mixed picture. I would say where it comes to these websites can never really tell how accurate they are, what methodology they're using. And therefore, I just want to kind of like follow closely and see what's going on there. And if there's anything to that.
这是一个比较复杂的情况。我想说，针对这些网站，我们永远无法确定它们的准确性和使用的方法。因此，我想要密切关注并观察其中的情况。如果有任何问题，我会尽快了解。
Paragraph 5: But ultimately, you know, if you are working in the space industry, if you're in the business of making rockets, you're probably overworked, you're probably working log hours, very high chances of failure, very cutting-edge research projects you're working on. So I can imagine it be a stressful environment. Yeah, a lot of the complaints are about overwork, work life balance, that kind of thing. And I'm not trying to sound cold or dismissive, but like I don't see how you I don't see how a space company has run without just an absolute maniac in charge. And I'm not accusing Peter Beck of being a maniac, but I think you will wear that badge with honor.
但是最终，如果你从事太空行业，如果你从事火箭制造业，你可能会过度劳累，工作时间可能很长，非常容易失败，你正在从事非常前沿的研究项目。所以我可以想象这是一个很有压力的环境。是的，很多抱怨是关于超时工作、工作与生活平衡等问题。我不想听起来冷酷或不屑一顾，但我不明白如何在没有一个绝对疯狂的负责人的情况下经营太空公司。我不是在指责彼得·贝克是个疯子，但我认为你将以荣耀的名义佩戴那个标志。
Paragraph 6: Fair enough. Let's do a quick, quick check on the numbers before we wrap up. Rocket Lab is unprofitable on an operating business and launching rockets, sure sounds expensive. You mentioned that they can reuse some engines, but is that enough of the story for this company to scale into profitability?
好的，没问题。在我们结束前，让我们快速核对一下数据。Rocket Lab在运营业务和发射火箭方面都没有盈利，听起来成本很高。你提到他们可以重复使用一些引擎，但这对于让这家公司实现盈利是否足够呢？
Paragraph 7: Yeah, so just to be clear, they have not started reusing their engines. Just yeah, they have run tests to check whether they can. And so far, they report that they have been able to to get their engines to work after they have landed back on earth. But yeah, see, I think he raised a very important point here, which is kind of the profitability or like they're off for this business and operating basis.
第7段：是的，为了澄清一下，他们还没有开始重新使用他们的火箭引擎。但是，他们进行了测试，以检查他们是否能够这样做。到目前为止，他们报告说在火箭返回地球后，他们已经能够让引擎工作了。但是，我认为他在这里提出了一个非常重要的问题，即该业务的盈利能力或运营基础。
Paragraph 8: Again, like Confluent, like I was saying was Confluent earlier, this is a relatively young company, still long path of growth ahead. And for this business to generate a lot of operating profits, it's going to have to first launch more rockets more frequently reuse the missiles, including the engines, become a vendor of choice for most space needs. And more importantly, it's going to need for the new neutron rocket to actually work.
再次强调，就像之前提到的 Confluent 一样，这是一家相对年轻的公司，未来还有很长的发展道路。为了让业务产生大量的运营利润，该公司需要首先更频繁地发射更多的火箭，重复使用导弹包括引擎，并成为大多数空间需求的首选供应商。更重要的是，新的中子火箭必须真正可行。
Paragraph 9: One of the worst things that could possibly happen, and for this company and for this as an investment idea is for the neutron to fail. If that was to happen, that's that's going to be a serious blow to this company's balance sheet and future prospects. Now, zooming out beyond operating expenses, we should see CapEx peaking this year as a lot of the spending on new manufacturing facilities, new launch pads, and the neutron program kind of is undertaken and we get to towards the end of that.
第九段：最糟糕的事情之一就是中子计划失败，而对于这家公司和作为投资理念而言，这将是一个非常严重的打击。如果发生这种情况，这将对公司的资产负债表和未来前景造成严重影响。现在，除了经营开支之外，我们还应该看到投资支出在今年达到峰值，因为许多新制造设施、新发射平台和中子计划的开支正在进行中，并且我们已经接近其结束阶段。
Paragraph 1: Welcome to Industry Focus, the podcast that dives into a different sector of the stock market every day. It's Monday, October 25th, and we're discussing the space industry. I'm your host, Mary Long, and I'm joined remotely by Motley Fool contributor Yasser El-Shimy.
欢迎来到《Industry Focus》，这是一个每天深入探讨不同股市领域的播客。今天是10月25日星期一，我们将讨论太空产业。我是您的主持人Mary Long，今天远程加入我们的是摩托利富投稿人Yasser El-Shimy。
Paragraph 2: Yasser, thank you for joining us today to talk about the space industry. Can you give us an overview of what's been happening in this sector?
雅瑟，感谢您今天加入我们谈论太空行业。您能概述一下这个行业最近发生了什么吗？
Paragraph 3: Sure, Mary. It's been an exciting couple of years for the space industry. A lot of private companies are getting involved, and we're seeing more innovation in this field than we've seen in the past fifty years.
当然，玛丽。对于航天行业来说，这是一个激动人心的几年。越来越多的私营公司加入其中，我们在这个领域看到的创新比过去五十年来更多。
Paragraph 4: One area that's really taking off is satellite launches. Companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Rocket Lab are all offering cheaper and more frequent launches than traditional government contractors like United Launch Alliance.
卫星发射是一个真正起飞的领域。像SpaceX、Blue Origin和Rocket Lab这样的公司都提供比传统的政府承包商如United Launch Alliance更便宜和更频繁的发射服务。
Paragraph 5: Another area of interest is space tourism. Virgin Galactic is a notable company in this space, but we're also seeing companies like Blue Origin and SpaceX express interest in this area of business.
另一个有趣的领域是太空旅游。维珍银河公司是该领域的一家著名公司，不过我们也看到像蓝色起源公司和SpaceX这样的公司表达了对这个业务领域的兴趣。
Paragraph 6: Another thing to keep an eye on is SpaceX's Starlink project, which aims to provide high-speed internet to rural and remote areas around the globe. This project has already launched over 1,500 satellites and plans to launch as many as 42,000.
另一件值得关注的事情是SpaceX的Starlink项目，旨在为全球的农村和偏远地区提供高速互联网。该项目已经发射了超过1,500颗卫星，并计划发射多达42,000颗卫星。
Paragraph 7: In addition to these companies, we're also seeing more traditional defense contractors like Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman get involved in the space industry.
除了这些公司之外，我们还看到更多传统的国防承包商像洛克希德马丁、波音和诺斯罗普·格鲁曼参与到太空产业中来。这意味着太空产业的规模和影响力越来越大，吸引了更多的投资和关注。同时，这些公司的参与也将带来更多颠覆性的技术和新颖的商业模式，进一步推动太空产业的发展。
Paragraph 8: Overall, there's a lot of excitement and innovation happening in this sector, and it's definitely an area that investors should be paying attention to.
总的来说，这个领域正在发生很多令人兴奋和创新的事情，这绝对是投资者应该关注的一个领域。
Paragraph 9: Thanks for joining us today, Yasser. It's been great having you on the show to talk about the space industry.
感谢您今天的加入，Yasser。 很高兴能邀请您来谈论太空产业。