Tariff Wars in Canada - w/Guest Danielle Smith | The Loonie Hour Episode 173

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您或您的客户是否正在寻找一个能够带来稳定收入的解决方案，以分散您的投资组合，并获得有吸引力的回报？如果是这样，Neighborhood Holdings可能是一个不错的选择。这个播客的听众会明白，公开市场可能不稳定，而好的私人信贷基金也不容易找到。但Neighborhood以其透明的历史记录和与投资者的良好对齐而脱颖而出。在近十年的持续表现中，Neighborhood提供了8-10%的目标净收益率，给投资者带来稳定的月收入，而没有公开市场的波动性。那么，他们是如何做到的呢？在银行投资不超过95%贷款价值比的抵押贷款时，借款人往往需要满足很多要求。许多正在过渡中的借款人无法满足这些要求。Neighborhood与银行和经纪人合作，为优质借款人提供以第一抵押贷款为担保的临时融资，其平均贷款价值比低于60%。其他抵押基金可能会通过支持建筑、裸地或巨额贷款来承受更大的风险，而Neighborhood专注于在社区中拥有普通房屋的普通住宅借款人。此外，他们的浮动利率带有底限，当利率上升时，抵押贷款定价使投资者受益，并降低下行风险。查看描述中的链接或访问neighborhoodholdings.com，查看发行备忘录，或咨询您的财务顾问以获取更多信息，网址是neighborhoodholdings.com/loonyhour。

Before we get started, I want to remind everyone that this information discussed today is not intended to be or construed as investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor before putting a loony in any of these financial markets.

在我们开始之前，我想提醒大家，今天讨论的信息并不构成或被解释为投资建议。在投资任何金融市场之前，请咨询专业顾问。

The secret is that no one's ever going to get paid after half the shortness memory spread runs from the best and the biggest onions in the big one. Hey, there's a bubble.

秘密在于：当记忆短暂的传播已经过半时，来自最优秀和最大洋葱的收益就永远不会兑现。嘿，小心，有泡沫。

Welcome back to the loony hour episode 173. As always, join me with the three amigos. Boomer, Keith Dicker, Rich Diaz, you dressed up. Is that bad? Should I change my shirt? Fancy. What's going on? Not much, man. I'm going to stop talking about the haves and the comment section will be very happy about that because our best defense been got injured. So I think I don't want to jinx it. But otherwise it's good.

欢迎回到第173期的疯狂时刻节目。和往常一样，这次依旧有我们的三个好伙伴：Boomer，Keith Dicker，还有Rich Diaz。嘿，你打扮了一下啊？这样不好吗？要不要换件衬衫？蛮有格调的。最近怎么样？没什么特别的，只是我不打算再讨论那些话题了，评论区应该会很开心，因为我们最好的防守球员受伤了。我不想带来坏运气。不过其他都挺好的。

There's been so much snow in Montreal. I forgot how shit the weather is. Did you see that trade? Yeah, it was crazy. Yeah, it was totally nuts. So the abs are my team. I don't know if anyone knows that. Oh, yeah. That's right. That was happy? No, I was sad. It was a tough day for me. Oh, really? But it's a good player than a nicious player, whatever his name is.

蒙特利尔下了很多雪。我都忘了天气有多糟了。你看到那个交易了吗？太疯狂了。是啊，简直太离谱了。所以，加拿大人队是我的球队。我不知道有没有人知道。哦，对。你那时候高兴吗？不，我很难过。那天对我来说很艰难。哦，真的吗？不过，那位新来的球员挺不错的，不管他叫什么名字。

You can't trade a top five player in the game. You just can't. Those things are not traded. Well, it sounds like they did. So I think you're wrong here. Yeah, well, I wasn't happy about it. Ten years, one Stanley Cup. I think he's like top five in all time franchise points too. Wow. I don't know. Yeah, it was sad. It was sad. They traded PK. I called my sister in hysterics and she thought something horrible. It happened to me. And I was like, Sandy, they traded PK. Sue, but she got really pissed. That guy's career went like just down and all fast. Yeah. Anyways, people don't care about her hockey take anyways.

你不能交易游戏中排名前五的球员。就是不能交易。这种球员是不交易的。但是，看起来他们做了这种事。所以我觉得你错了。是啊，我对此很不满。十年时间，只拿了一个斯坦利杯。我想他可能也是球队历史积分榜前五的球员。哇。我不知道。是的，这很让人难过。他们交易了PK。我打电话给我妹妹，情绪很激动，她还以为我发生了什么可怕的事。我对她说：“桑迪，他们交易了PK。”她很生气。那家伙的职业生涯就这样快速下滑了。反正，人们也不关心她对冰球的看法。

Keith, what's going on with the moose heads? We keep doing this every week. It's like groundhog. I feel like Bill Murray. How far is the arena from where you live? Just out of curiosity. Probably 10 blocks, maybe. Oh, buddy, you got no excuse. You should be there every game. Tarps off. I can hop on my bike and cycle over there in the bike lane, Rich. Yeah, the bike lane. It's glorious bike lanes. You and Gilbo are riding to the game. Yep.

Keith，驼鹿头的事情怎么样了？我们每周都在重复同样的事情。这感觉像《土拨鼠日》里的情节一样。我感觉自己就像比尔·默里。你住的地方离体育馆有多远？只是好奇问一下。大概10个街区吧。哎，老兄，你没有任何理由缺席每场比赛。脱掉上衣。我可以骑上自行车，从自行车道骑到那里，Rich。是的，自行车道。自行车道非常赞。你和Gilbo一起骑车去比赛，是不是？对的。

What do we have today? Anything interesting going on today? The loony hour route? Yeah, we've got very special guests coming on the show this week. We've got Alberta premier Daniel Smith to come on to talk about obviously the tariffs, which is all over the news. Everyone seems like every hour you're getting a new update. Trump has proposed tariffs as of February 1st.

我们今天有什么安排？有没有什么有趣的事情？“疯狂时刻”路线怎么样？是的，我们这周的节目有非常特别的嘉宾。阿尔伯塔省省长丹尼尔·史密斯将会来上节目，谈论新闻上引起广泛关注的关税问题。几乎每小时都会有新消息更新。特朗普提议从2月1日起实施关税。

So important note here. We interviewed Daniel Smith on the January the 27th, Rich. Which was the Monday. So by the time this podcast. It's the 20 hour math. Today's Thursday. You're watching on Friday. So there you go. So I think it's so far it's relevant. We'll see once this thing drops tomorrow on Friday. If it's still relevant. Anyways, I think either way, it's a good lesson. Gives you guys some insights into kind of what's going on behind the curtains. I think she was very open and transparent about all the questions that we asked. We didn't send her an illicit questions ahead of time.

重要提示：我们在1月27日（星期一）采访了丹尼尔·史密斯。所以到我们录制这个播客的时候，时间已经过去了一段。今天是星期四，你会在星期五收听这个播客。所以，目前来看，这里面的信息还是相关的。等到明天，也就是星期五播客上线后，我们再看它是不是依然相关。不过不管怎样，我觉得这是一次很好的访谈。它会让你们对幕后发生的事情有一些了解。我认为她对我们所提的问题非常坦率和透明。我们并没有提前给她发送问题。

So if anyone thinks it's scripted or whatever, it was a very much an open book conversation. And I thought she was awesome. Rich, I don't know if you had any comments before we jump over to interview. No, it was great. We're going to talk about there's some news that came out a couple last night, which will really change the story going forward. Howard Lutnik, which is Trump's trade negotiator.

所以如果有人认为这是有预先编好的、或者是其他什么的，这其实是一次非常开放的对话。我觉得她太棒了。Rich，我不知道你在我们开始采访之前有没有什么要说的。没有，一切都很好。我们要谈谈昨晚出来的一些新闻，这些新闻将真正改变故事的发展。Howard Lutnik，特朗普的贸易谈判代表。

So it's a shame we didn't get her insights on that. But otherwise, I thought it was really, really interesting. Interviewer was really grateful to have her. Yeah, so we got so we'll clip over to Daniel Smith interview. We also will do a recap also, you know, some updates from the Bank of Canada, the Fed, the ECB. We got some data from the US GDP side, Germany GDP side. So there's still a lot going on, including some reactions from the federal government, all the other premiers that have been coming out over the last several days about their plans for tariffs.

所以，很遗憾我们没能获得她对此的见解。但除此之外，我觉得采访真的很有趣。采访者非常感激能邀请到她。好了，现在我们将切换到丹尼尔·史密斯的采访。同时，我们也会进行一个回顾，包括加拿大央行、美联储和欧洲央行的一些最新动态。我们还收到了来自美国和德国的GDP数据。因此，仍有很多内容值得关注，包括联邦政府以及过去几天各省长对关税计划的反应。

So we'll kind of get into all that. But I think without further ado, to provide some context, it'll be good to get some commentary here from Danielle Smith. Can we do like the back in time thing? Yeah, this is kind of a first to Luneon. Normally we try to get our guests on the same day and time that we record the rest of the pod. But obviously given Danielle's popularity these days and the enormous amount of requests, I will say this, that she made a special exemption for the Lune hour to carve out some time. So we're very grateful for that. And I think it's a testament to the podcast and to the listener base. Again, without the listener base, you don't get guests like Danielle. So appreciate all your support. And without further ado, let's clip over to Daniel Smith right now.

好的，我们会慢慢进入所有这些内容。不过我想不再多说了，为了提供一些背景信息，我们可以先听听Danielle Smith的评论。我们能像回到过去一样吗？是的，这对Luneon来说是第一次。通常我们会尽量在录制节目的同一天和同时邀请我们的嘉宾。但显然，鉴于Danielle这些天的受欢迎程度和大量的请求，我想说的是，她为Lune Hour特别破例安排了一段时间。所以我们对此非常感激。我认为这也证明了播客的影响力和听众的支持。没有你们的支持，我们无法邀请到像Danielle这样的嘉宾。因此，非常感谢大家的支持。好了，事不宜迟，让我们现在就切换到Danielle Smith的片段。

Daniel Smith, welcome to the Lune hour. I'm glad to be here. First, first appearance. But I know that you're hard to pin down these days. You're all over the news. And so we appreciate you taking the time to come on to the Luneon. I'm sure our loyal listeners are delighted to have you on the show as well. Well, I'm looking forward to talking to you through. I feel like I'm going to learn as much from you as you learn from me. So let's go.

丹尼尔·史密斯，欢迎来到《月亮时刻》。我很高兴来到这里。这是我第一次出现在这个节目上。我知道最近要约到你可不容易，你的新闻到处都是。所以我们非常感谢你抽出时间来上节目。我相信我们忠实的听众也很高兴能在节目中听到你的声音。我也很期待和你交流。我觉得我们会相互学习很多。那就让我们开始吧。

So my first question, keep it light here. You've been frequenting Marilago, President Trump. Is he serious about Canada becoming the 51st state? I think he's he's he never says anything just as a joke. I think I think I initially thought he was joking, but it kept on being persistent.

好的，我的第一个问题，请保持轻松一点。你常去海湖庄园，特朗普总统。他认真考虑让加拿大成为第51个州吗？我觉得他从不会单纯开玩笑。我起初以为他在开玩笑，但他一直在提这件事。

So you have to ask, what is it that he wants us to do? And there's a couple of things that I would say I'm interpreting from what he's saying. What he's saying is he's going to put tariffs on the world. He believes in tariffs as a policy, as a tool to raise money. And the Americans are in real trouble. They're spending a trillion dollars a year on interest payments alone on their debt. And he wants to be able to maintain his corporate income tax cuts, which I are said to expire, I believe, in 2026. So I think he's looking at tariffs as a tool of government revenue. And his attitude is, well, the only way to avoid tariffs is to be part of America. So do you want to be the 51st state? That's one way of interpreting what he's saying.

所以你得问，他想让我们做些什么呢？根据我的理解，他的话意思是，他打算对全世界征收关税。他把关税视作一种政策和筹资工具。而美国的经济确实面临困境，他们每年光是债务利息就要支付一万亿美元。他希望能维持他的企业所得税削减政策，这项政策我认为会在2026年到期。所以我觉得他把关税当作一种政府收入的手段。而他的态度是，避免关税的唯一办法就是成为美国的一部分。那么，你想成为第51个州吗？这就是对他话语的一种解读。

The other thing is, I think he is when you look at his aspirations around Greenland and Panama, I think he is looking at a fortress North America. And we have to demonstrate that we're taking the border security issues and Arctic security issues seriously and our NATO commitments seriously. And if we don't do that, then I think the Americans are telling us, I guess you want us to do it for you. And I don't think that's a position Canada should be in. And I think Canada needs to meet a NATO target. We need to be serious about border security. We need to be a strong and dependent country and be confident that we're a great trading partner. And so I've taken a little bit of a different approach from my colleagues. I think that we have to address the president's concerns in a meaningful way. And I hope we can get a carboat for Canada. I hope we can do that. But I think he's very serious about imposing tariffs.

另一件事是，我认为他在考虑格陵兰和巴拿马的目标时，是在设想一个北美堡垒。而我们必须展示出对边境安全问题、北极安全问题以及我们在北约承诺上的重视。如果我们不这样做，那我认为美国会告诉我们，说到底就是“你们希望我们来替你们解决这些问题”。而我认为加拿大不应该处于这样的境地。加拿大需要达到北约的目标，我们需要认真对待边境安全，成为一个强大而独立的国家，并自信地证明自己是一个优秀的贸易伙伴。因此，我采取了一种与同事不同的方法。我认为我们必须以有意义的方式回应总统的关切。我希望我们能为加拿大争取到一个豁免，我希望我们能做到这一点。但我认为他对于加征关税是非常认真的。

That's interesting because there's always challenges and problems in the world. But there's always a solution to it. And so first of all, I think you realize you're getting a lot of attention from a lot of the mainstream media sites. Sometimes they're not that flattering, Daniel. They're not being positive about you. Imagine that. I'm not used to that at all. I think they would like a strong woman's voice.

这很有趣，因为世界上总是有挑战和问题。但总会有解决办法。所以首先，我认为你注意到自己受到了很多主流媒体网站的关注。有时候，这些关注不那么正面，他们对你的评价并不总是积极的。想象一下，我对此一点也不习惯。我觉得他们希望能听到一个坚强女性的声音。

I think that anyway, interesting. But what you just opened with, we look at everything. What is the challenge here? And the question is, what is the president asking for? And he wants a stronger border, stronger security up north as well and things like immigration in that line. Is that being recognized in Ottawa? Because what all I see now in different media platforms is not, hey, let's sit down at the table, let's have a conversation, see what the solution is. Because the world has shifted. As long as we recognize it has shifted. And we're not the big guys in the room here. Instead, all I'm seeing and hearing is we're going to fight back. We're going to show Canada that we're there for them. And I think I saw Friedland said, come up with a bi-Canada policy. Mark Kearney has even indicated we should cut off Quebec Hydro to New York. And again, everything I'm hearing is not trying to fund a solution. It's being more of a defensive dig your heels in. And is that the right approach? Or what do you guys see from your desk?

我觉得无论如何这是有趣的。不过你一开始提到的，我们关注一切。那么这里的挑战是什么？问题是，总统想要什么？他希望有更强的边境防御，北部也需要更强的安全措施，还有像移民这样的议题。这些在渥太华被重视了吗？因为我现在在不同媒体平台上看到的并不是说“嘿，我们坐下来谈谈，看看解决方案是什么。”因为世界已经变了，只要我们承认它已经变了。而我们并不是房间里最大的玩家。取而代之的是，我所看到和听到的是我们要反击，我们要向加拿大表明我们在那里支持他们。我想我看到弗里兰德说要提出一个“加拿大制造”政策。马克·卡尼甚至表示我们应该切断魁北克的水电供给纽约。而我所听到的一切都不像是在寻找解决方案，更像是一种防御性的态度。那么这种方式正确吗？或者你们从你们的立场上看是什么样的？

I'll tell you what I see is that if the tariffs come first from the American side, there's no question that there will have to be some kind of proportionate response. That's normally how these kind of trade disputes end up getting resolved. I did have a chance to read Robert Leitheiser's book, No Trade is Free. And it really gives an insight, I think, into that part of his party that is advising him. But you saw that with China that they put in tariffs and then China put in tariffs. And then they relented on some and then China relented on some. So I think you can get a little bit of an idea of how the flow of that sort of thing works if it comes to it.

我告诉你，我观察到的是，如果关税首先由美国方面实施，无疑会有某种形式的对等回应。这通常是这些贸易争端解决的过程。我曾有机会阅读罗伯特·莱特希泽的书《没有自由贸易》，我认为这本书提供了他所在政党对他的建议的一些见解。你可以看到与中国的情况，他们先对中国加征关税，然后中国也加征关税。随后双方都对部分关税做出了让步。我认为如果真的发生这样的情况，你可以大致了解这种事情的发展过程。

My personal view is we should try to avoid tariffs. And that's why I have said, let's lead with diplomacy first. Because I think we've got a great story to tell. So I'll tell you the story that I tell. And it's this, is that we do have an integrated economy. And the Americans benefit from that. I know that we want to be known for something other than our raw materials. But those raw materials are really important, whether it's food products, whether it is critical minerals, whether it's oil and gas, even auto parts, the fact that auto parts go back and forth six or seven times before a car can be built. And that is something that is a strength for us. Because if you add a 25% tariff across the board, what it means is that all those products are going to become more expensive for Americans, which then goes against the other major platform that the president put forward, which is to have lower prices.

我个人认为，我们应该尽量避免关税。这就是为什么我提倡首先通过外交手段来解决问题。因为我相信，我们有一段很好的故事可以讲给对方听。我们目前的经济是高度一体化的，而美国也因此受益。我明白我们希望不仅仅以原材料闻名，但这些原材料确实很重要，无论是食品、关键矿物，还是石油和天然气，甚至是汽车零部件。比如，汽车零部件在汽车最终组装前会在两国间往返六七次。这实际上是我们的一个优势。因为如果对所有产品征收25%的关税，意味着所有这些产品在美国市场的价格都会上涨，这与总统希望降低价格的另一主要政策背道而驰。

And in particular, lower energy prices. So that's one of the points that I make is that the Canada is kind of an integral part of the US supply chain. And if we take out things like energy, we actually buy more goods and services from the US than they buy from us. And so if this trade deficit is the hang up, then let's figure out how to deal with that. Let's maybe cut a different deal for energy and critical minerals, because they need those as raw materials to value add and to also achieve their other objectives. But then let's have a discussion about how we can sell more to the Americans and also buy more from the Americans. That's the approach that I've taken. Again, I don't know if it's going to be successful. It depends. I mean, if the real issue is NATO spending, then we've got to meet our 2% NATO target.

特别是降低能源价格。这就是我提到的一点：加拿大在某种程度上是美国供应链的一个重要组成部分。如果不考虑能源等因素，我们实际上从美国购买的商品和服务比他们从我们这里购买的更多。因此，如果贸易逆差是问题所在，那我们就需要找出解决方法。或许可以在能源和关键矿产方面达成不同的协议，因为美国需要这些原材料来增值和实现其他目标。同时，我们也应该讨论如何能更多地向美国销售产品，同时也更多地从美国购买。这是我采取的方法。不过，是否能成功还不确定，这取决于很多因素。如果真正的问题是北约的支出，那我们就需要达到北约规定的2%预算目标。

If the real issue is Arctic security, then we've got to deal with Arctic security. The real issue is that they don't want a flood of people coming across the border as they're trying to deport them, only to buy their time to then go back across from Canada into the US, then we better deal with that issue. So that's the difficulty that we have. I mean, when you look at what just happened with Colombia, it was pretty clear. You're going to get 25% tariffs unless you accept these deported citizens. Colombia did some labor waggling for a bit, and then they said, OK, we'll do it. And then the tariffs are off. We just don't know what the solution is yet with the United States. I think they lasted five hours. I think that's what that's what it was.

如果真正的问题是北极安全，那么我们就必须解决北极安全的问题。真正的问题是，他们不希望大量移民涌入，因为这些人被驱逐后可能会绕道从加拿大返回美国，所以我们最好先处理这个问题。这就是我们面临的难题。我是说，当你看看哥伦比亚的事例时，这很明显。美国表示，如果他们不接受遣返的公民，就要对他们的商品征收25%的关税。哥伦比亚最初进行了一些讨价还价，然后他们同意接受，这才解决了关税问题。我们仍然不知道美国这边的解决方案是什么。我想那个过程持续了五个小时。

So it's a keep. Go ahead. People like their coffee. I think Colombia and coffee. Can you imagine how cranky the Americans would be if they didn't have coffee? Yeah, they can be cranky for other reasons, too. But the so why to share with us? I mean, we know this and you know, I mean, you're sharing with us. Is this Ottawa know this? Because again, I'm hearing a different perspective. And I know there are some comments out recently. And I know Rich has a great work done on Canadian exports and, you know, an energy specifically that he wants to ask some questions about.

所以这是个好主意。继续吧。人们喜欢咖啡。我一想到哥伦比亚就想到咖啡。你能想象如果美国人没有咖啡，他们会有多烦躁吗？当然，他们也可能因为其他原因烦躁。那么，为什么要和我们分享这个呢？我是说，我们知道这些，你也知道，我是说，你和我们分享的是这是渥太华了解的吗？因为我又听到了不同的观点。我知道最近有一些评论。而且我知道里奇在加拿大出口，特别是能源方面，做了一些很棒的工作，他想就此提几个问题。

But we don't even know who the decision makers are in Ottawa. Who's having this conversation. And do they understand how if you exclude oil and energy that, you know, Canada is actually, you know, we were not net net exporting to the Americans. I've made that available to many people as I can. The National Bank did a study on that. And they actually quantified it. They said, taking oil and gas out of the picture, we buy $58 billion more in goods and services from the Americans. And it really is commodity prices that have have widened this gap. If you go back 10 years ago, we actually were the ones, even when you included energy, we were the ones who had the deficit with the United States. So that's what balance trade looks like. Sometimes one's up, sometimes the other is up.

但我们甚至不知道在渥太华是谁在做决定。是谁在进行这些对话？他们是否理解，如果不考虑石油和能源，加拿大其实并不是对美国的净出口国。我已将这一点告知了尽可能多的人。国家银行做过一个研究，他们对此进行了量化。他们说，如果不考虑石油和天然气，我们从美国购买的商品和服务要多出580亿加元。其实是大宗商品的价格加大了这种差距。如果回顾十年前，即使包括能源，我们与美国之间贸易逆差的也是我们自己。所以，那就是贸易平衡的表现。有时是我们盈余，有时是他们盈余。

But certainly when you take commodities out of the picture, we are a very good customer of the United States. They actually, when you think about the fact that we are only 10% of the size of their economy, and that we are their number one customer in the world, that we buy more from the American than any other country in the world, that we buy more than the Germany, the UK, Italy and Japan combined, that why is it, why aren't they the target? Why aren't they saying, hey, maybe you should buy as much stuff from us as Canada does. So that's one of the points that I'm making, because I really do believe that we are a responsible friend and trading partner, that we really are aiming to give the Americans what they need and buy from them what we need. And it is the kind of relationship that they want to have with the rest of the world, whether that's getting through to Washington, I'm not quite sure.

当然，当我们不考虑大宗商品时，我们确实是美国的一个非常好的客户。实际上，考虑到我们经济规模只有美国的10%，但我们却是美国的全球第一大客户，我们从美国购买的商品比任何其他国家都多，甚至超过德国、英国、意大利和日本的总和。因此，为什么美国不要求其他国家像加拿大一样多购买美国的产品呢？这是我想要表达的一点，因为我确实相信我们是一个负责任的朋友和贸易伙伴，我们真的在努力提供美国需要的东西，同时购买我们所需的东西。这种关系正是他们希望与世界其他国家建立的关系，但华盛顿是否意识到这一点，我还不太确定。

I'm surprised it's not getting through in Canada. I'm kind of interested as I make that argument, you say that you've heard something else. What arguments are you hearing? Keith, go ahead. I mean, I think the main challenge that Canadians are facing is that, for example, who's meeting with Letnik? Is it Howard Letnik? But that's the same thing. It is. Well, let me tell you a little bit about what I can see. The Prime Minister is very much like the American system, that if we had tried to start lobbying the American administration on January 19th, we would have been lobbying Biden administration people. They have a law called the Logan Act where they're not allowed to talk to elected officials until they are formally confirmed. And so, January 20th, I mean, this is a president who's obviously in a big hurry, because look at what he's been able to do in just a week.

我很惊讶这在加拿大没有传达过去。我对此很感兴趣，因为我提出了这个观点，而你说你听到了不同的说法。你听到的是什么观点呢？凯斯，请继续。我的意思是，我认为加拿大人面临的主要挑战是，比如说，谁在与莱特尼克会面？是霍华德·莱特尼克吗？但这就是重点。让我告诉你我所看到的一些信息。总理的角色很像美国的体制，如果我们在1月19日试图开始游说美国政府，我们实际上是在游说拜登政府的官员。他们有一条叫做《洛根法》的法律，规定在正式确认之前，不允许他们与民选官员对话。所以说，1月20日就不一样了，这位总统显然很着急，因为看看他在短短一周内完成的事情。

So, most of the secretaries are not even confirmed yet. So, that's one of the challenges that we face is that who do we interact with on the American side? It will become a little bit more clear as those secretaries are put into place, but that's been one of the problems that we've had. On our side, the Prime Minister is up the view that even though he's gone in, I think, it's now 41 days, that he's the Prime Minister until he's no longer the Prime Minister. That being said, Dominic LeBlanc is clearly one of the consistent voices that have been at the table. He was in the last rounds of discussion. He went down with him tomorrow, Lago. He's gone down again with Melanie Jolene. He is as a regular regular relationship. He's building with Howard Lucknowc.

所以，大多数部长还没有确认，这就是我们面临的挑战之一：我们应该跟美国那边的谁进行对接？随着这些部长到位，这个问题会变得稍微明朗一些，但这一直是我们遇到的问题之一。在我们这边，总理的观点是，虽然他上任已经41天，但他仍是总理，直到不再是总理为止。话虽如此，Dominic LeBlanc显然是一直坐在谈判桌上的稳定声音。他参与了上一轮的讨论。明天他会和总理一起前往拉各（Lago），他最近也和Melanie Jolene再次出发。他正在与Howard Lucknowc建立一个固定的关系。

So, Dominic LeBlanc is very key. I think Jonathan Wilkinson was just in Washington as well. And so, he's talking with some of the administration officials that are in his file on energy also. So, I think, if I'm reading between the lines, it does seem to me that Dominic is the key person. And that could give some stability as we go through and see the Liberals end their leadership contest. But then we're, once again, into a general election very likely soon. And we could have a yet another face at the table in May or June or later. So, I think this is why this negotiation is a little bit different and why you've seen the Council of the Federation of the Premiers take on more of a vocal role.

所以，Dominic LeBlanc 是非常关键的。我认为 Jonathan Wilkinson 也刚刚在华盛顿进行了访问，他和负责能源事务的政府官员进行沟通。因此，如果我的猜测没错，Dominic 确实是关键人物。这可能会在自由党结束领导人竞选时提供一些稳定。不过，很可能我们很快又会面临一次大选，到了五月或六月或更晚的时候，谈判桌上可能会出现一个新的面孔。这也是为什么这次谈判有点不同，以及为什么各省长议会在这个过程中扮演了更加积极的角色。

That, again, is also in a little bit of turmoil because Doug Ford is now also holding an election so that he can get a new mandate so that he can face this tariff challenge. And he's the head of cough at the moment. So, I think what you will see is each of the Premiers have committed that we're going to work our networks and our contacts and try to make the Canadian case to as many lawmakers and decision makers as possible in the US. So, I don't know that that answers your question. Maybe it validates your concern that there isn't really a single voice at the moment. But I think. I know Rich has a question. It just validates my concern, actually. Why do you have the question? There's two. One question. Is this the Wilkinson who said that that crude oil demand is going to peak in 2024? Because I just want to be very crystal clear about that. He's wrong. Yeah. Well, yeah. Okay. So, just so you under note, just to lay the land for, lay the give you the lay of the land for many of our looney our listeners, I've been going on and on and on about oil. It's important to our basically our standard of living, our import to our trade balance, specifically the current account balance, the fact that we basically sell oil and gas and to pay for imported goods. This hasn't always been true. This is true now. It's what keeps our current account balance stable. And is why our currency, the looney, is not in the toilet given how much debt we have and the fact that we are in a BOCs words, a productivity emergency.

这段文字大意是说，加拿大目前处于一些动荡中，因为道格·福特在进行选举以获得新的授权来应对关税挑战。他目前是主要负责这一事务的人。加拿大各省长承诺将利用他们的网络和联系，尽量向美国的法律制定者和决策者表达加拿大的立场。然而，目前似乎没有一个统一的声音应对这些问题。接着，讨论中提到有人提到威尔金森是否曾预测石油需求将在2024年达到峰值，并质疑这个预测是否准确。接着，他们解释了石油对加拿大经济的重要性，尤其是在保持经常账户平衡和支持货币价值方面。由于加拿大的高负债和生产力问题，因此石油和天然气出口在经济中的作用尤为突出。

In a similar vein to Keith, I mean, number one, my first question is, do people understand what a current account balance is in Ottawa? And can you tell them? And then my second question is, how frustrating is it for you to sort of hear the words like Canada's energy after years and years of people saying Alberta dirty oil? And then saying they want to use it as a weapon while constraining the investments from east to west, north south, whatever. And the last piece, I know this is a lot, but how does it relate to other natural resources, just parking oil for a second there?

与Keith类似，首先，我的问题是，渥太华的人理解什么是经常账户余额吗？你能解释一下吗？其次，听到“加拿大的能源”这样的字眼，对你来说有多令人沮丧，尤其是多年来人们一直在说“阿尔伯塔的脏石油”？同时，他们一方面想用能源作为武器，另一方面又限制从东到西、从南到北的投资。这是个很大的问题，我知道，但可以暂时把石油放在一边，这和其他自然资源有什么关系呢？

Well, thanks for giving me a bit of that history because I've been wondering why it is we used to have a petrudol or in Canada, didn't we? We still do, excuse me. We absolutely still do. If you excluded outside of the US dollar, but if you related to the Japanese yen, the pound or the euro, it moves lockstep with the WCI. What I've been surprised by is that we used to have a stronger connection with the sale of our oil and gas with the dollar because there was always that tension between, do you have to trade off Alberta doing well on its energy exports with the increase in the dollar to a point where it harms Ontario? And I've wondered why it is. We have this weird scenario where we're doing well because we're selling in our oil and gas, but it doesn't seem to be impacting the dollar to a point where it's harming Ontario. But what you've just told me is that the dollar would be a heck of a lot lower if not for that's alarming.

好的，谢谢你告诉我这些历史，因为我一直在想为什么我们在加拿大曾经有过一种与石油挂钩的货币，不是吗？其实我们现在仍然有，抱歉，我说错了。我们确实仍然有这种情况。如果不考虑美元，而是与日元、英镑或欧元相关的话，它与世界石油价格指数（WCI）的变化是步调一致的。我感到惊讶的是，我们以前在石油和天然气的销售与美元之间有更强的联系，因为经常存在这样的紧张关系：是否必须在阿尔伯塔省的能源出口表现良好与加元上涨到伤害安大略省之间进行权衡。而我一直在想为什么会有这样一种奇怪的情况，就是我们通过出售石油和天然气表现良好，但这似乎并没有影响加元到影响安大略省的程度。但你刚才告诉我的是，如果不是因为这个，加元会低得多，这很令人担忧。

Canada is one of the most indebted countries in the world and we have a zero productivity growth, we're mired in sort of the sort of real estate bust, sorry Steve. And right now, if you look at our current account balance, if it wasn't for oil, you know, we pay effectively, we just trade oil for important goods. But my question really is, how do people understand this and what do we have to do as citizens to make it clear that that's really important for us right now?

加拿大是世界上负债最高的国家之一，而且我们的生产率增长为零。我们目前深陷房地产低迷的困境，对不起，史蒂夫。如果不是因为石油的话，我们的经常账户余额可能会更糟。我们实际上是通过石油来换取重要商品的。但我真正的问题是，人们如何理解这一点？作为公民，我们应该怎么做才能让大家明白这对我们现在来说非常重要？

Well, I thought that formula had been broken. So I, if I didn't understand that our dollar would be, I don't know what, 50 cents if we didn't have a willing gas export? That's a bit too high. That's a bit too high actually. Yeah. But it is alarming. No, I think it's probably up to me to make that point. One of the things that I think is as the auto sector, I think has conveyed to the country that they are the driver, that they are the largest export and they're not. I mean, it's oil and gas. It's about $150 billion that alone, that Alberta exports and then you also have other exports in the other part of the country. And you also have a lot of imports that are coming in into especially eastern Canada. So there's no question that oil and gas are the lubricant between our two economies. But I think what has happened in the last 10 years is that there's been a fiction that has been proposed, this fiction that somehow we can operate our industrialized economy on wind and solar and batteries and nothing else.

好吧，我原以为那个模式已经被打破了。所以，如果我不明白我们的美元会变成什么样——如果我们没有愿意出口的天然气，我不知道会变成50美分吗？那其实有点夸张，不过确实让人担忧。我认为可能需要由我来指出这一点。有一件事我觉得很重要，就是汽车行业一直向国家传达他们是驱动力，是最大的出口产业，其实不然。实际上，石油和天然气才是最大出口行业，仅阿尔伯塔的出口就高达1500亿美元，此外还有全国其他地区的出口。而且，加拿大东部还有大量进口商品。毫无疑问，石油和天然气是连接我们两国经济的润滑剂。但我认为在过去的十年中，有一种虚构的观念被提出来了，即认为我们可以仅凭风能、太阳能和电池来维持所有工业化经济的运行。

And we've had to confront that since I got elected two years ago, because we have a power grid that has failed nearly 18 times because of the uncertainty that happens when wind and solar come off in a rush. And we've had to start actively going out and soliciting bids for base load power for natural gas. So there is a bit of a reckoning coming that I think we've been living in an alternate reality for the last 10 years. And this is part of the problem that we're facing. That has recalibrated in the United States overnight. There's been a 180 degree turn. And we're still left with the legacy decision makers who I think are stuck in an older paradigm that is not in sync with the Americans right now.

自从我在两年前当选以来，我们不得不面对一个问题，因为我们有一个电网几乎18次失灵，原因是当风能和太阳能突然减少时，产生了不确定性。我们已经开始积极招标，寻求天然气的基础负荷电力。所以，我觉得我们在过去的十年中一直生活在一个另类的现实中，现在我们正面临问题的部分原因就是这样。美国的情况已经在一夜之间调整，发生了180度的转变。然而，我们仍然受到一些旧有决策者的影响，他们似乎停留在一个与当前美国情况不符的旧有模式中。

One of the things that I think is important to understand is, yes, it's frustrating that my neighbors, after having done nothing to stop the attacks of the current federal government on our industry, which is, I think there was a recent text that Pierre Paulio sent out $175 billion worth of projects that were canceled. Imagine where we'd be. Everyone talks about the Trans Mountain pipeline. We're grateful. The coastal gasoline, we're grateful. Imagine if we'd had 175 billion additional projects that had gone ahead. What where would Canada be now? So that to me, the Trans Mountain and coastal gasoline shows how vitally important it is for us to have more than one customer and be able to sell and diversify our markets.

我认为重要的一点是，确实，让人感到挫败。我的邻居们在面对联邦政府对我们行业的打击时没有采取任何措施。比如，最近Pierre Paulio提到，有价值1750亿加元的项目被取消。想象一下，如果这些项目能够进行，加拿大现在会怎么样。大家都在谈论横山输油管道和沿海天然气项目，我们对此表示感激。但如果我们当时还多了1750亿的项目呢？这让我意识到，横山输油管道和沿海天然气项目显示出，有多个客户并能拓展市场是多么重要。

It's equally true on the East Coast. We when you look at where the American where Canada on the East Coast is right now, they're almost they're 100% dependent on oil and gas that come from another jurisdiction, whether it's it's shipped in or whether it comes by way of pipeline. And that's why I sort of shook my head when Melanie Jolie was saying, well, just cut off the energy. Okay. Well, if you cut off line five, it cuts it off to Sarnia, which means you're cutting up Ontario and you're cutting off Quebec. So there's no understanding of how integrated our markets are and how reliant the Americans are. But I'll just say one more thing. I think I got all three. The last one you talked about is the the other options that we have to to sell products to the United States. One of the I watched the Doug Bergum confirmation hearing of the bulk of it anyway. And I think it's important for everyone to watch that to understand the paradigm that the Americans are in.

在东海岸，这同样是真实的。当你观察目前美国和加拿大在东海岸的情形时，会发现他们几乎100%依赖从其他地区运来的石油和天然气，无论是通过船运还是管道。这也是为什么当梅拉妮·乔利建议切断能源供应时，我感到很困惑。好吧，如果切断第五号线，那就等于切断了通往萨尼亚的能源，这意味着你切断了安大略省和魁北克省的能源供应。这显示出对我们的市场是如何整合的，以及美国的依赖程度缺乏理解。但我还想再说一点。我想我已经涵盖了所有三点。你提到的最后一点是我们可以向美国出售产品的其他选择。最近我观看了Doug Bergum的确认听证会的大部分内容。我认为大家都有必要了解这场发展格局，以便理解美国人所处的形势。

They do not want to lose energy dominance. That's one part. And they do not want to lose AI dominance to the Chinese in particular. Imagine what the world would look like if the AI race is won by a totalitarian communist regime instead of a liberty and democracy loving regime. That's what's at stake. The Chinese are building coal plants on spec. They're building coal plants and not turning them on in anticipation of the power they're going to need to AI to have AI. And look at where we are. We've got a four year delay in being able to get gas turbines because nobody's making them anymore because we all thought we were going to need wind turbines and solar panels.

他们不想失去能源主导地位。这是一方面。此外，他们尤其不想在人工智能领域输给中国。想象一下，如果人工智能竞赛被一个极权主义的共产政权而不是一个热爱自由和民主的政权赢得，世界将会是什么样子。这就是当前的关键问题。中国正在大规模建设煤电厂，他们在为人工智能所需的能源做准备，建好了煤电厂并没有马上使用。而看看我们这边的情况，因为没人再生产燃气轮机，我们现在要等四年才能得到，因为大家都以为我们需要的是风力涡轮机和太阳能板。

So you can see there's a sense of urgency in the United States of having energy dominance, which they cannot have without Canada, quite frankly, because if they want to export their WTI oil, they have to import our. We've made that very clear. We've made very very percent. And then of course, we're kind of the loony hour if you're not already. Oh, truly. The numbers are very clear. The Americans, they consume 21 million barrels a day. They produce 13 million barrels a day. They're exporting and part of the reason they're exporting is because of because of us. So that's that's one part. But you can make that same argument on uranium. Saskatchewan provides 20% of the world supply of uranium. The Americans are still getting a lot of the uranium from Kazakhstan and Russia. If you look at what the what China, China just did, they identified three critical minerals, essential for the defense supply chain. So we're not going to export them to the United States anymore. Genanium and Timonium and gallium, we have the ability to develop those two. We have the ability to develop lithium. So every single province has a value proposition to provide the critical minerals to support the US national defense, energy security, AI dominance. And that's what I'm leading with. And I think it's a great story to tell. Is there just go ahead and do sorry. Is there any conversations like I'm sure you chat with, you know, all these, you know, executives and CEOs at these major, you know, oil firms in in Alberta there? What's the what do they tell you over the last, you know, eight to 10 years of just overall sentiment investment about the current government, obviously, the federal level? I have to say, what I find so interesting is, is even with this anti energy, keep it in the ground, government that we've had at the federal level, we still managed to overtake Saudi Arabia as the largest exporter to the United States in 2014, and it's continued to grow. Even though we had big projects that got canceled, Keystone, Northern Gateway energy, we did still manage to get some that were built in that has allowed us to increase our production. So our energy sector is, they are so innovative when when they see a problem, they find a solution. Oh, you won't let me build another pipeline. That's okay. I'll do a loop or I'll do compression or I'll find some way to widen what I've got so that I don't have to do a new project. It's still not enough capacity. That's okay. I'll put it on a train and we'll transport it that way. So our energy industry has found multiple different ways to continue to increase their export. But my goodness, I mean, when I got elected, I said, why don't we be truly aspirational? Why don't we talk about doubling our oil and gas production? We should be able to do that. But it does require us working with our partners in Canada to recalibrate and realize that the East is better off if they can get a secure supply from a friend in Alberta, and the West is better off as well if they can if we can supply that way and help to support our friends in in Asia. So those are the arguments that I make. And I think that what I have seen is everybody is dusting off old plans. I think there were three oil sands companies announcing that they wanted to expand production. You've got I did a press conference with Enbridge. They've got a pretty significant multi-part proposal that would increase egress to the United States if they're interested. I know that TC is looking at plans. I know that Pembona is looking at plans. So I would say that there's a a real appetite to to dig into this problem if we can get the political factors right to make it work.

在美国，他们迫切希望实现能源主导地位，而坦率地说，没有加拿大这是无法实现的。因为如果他们想出口他们的WTI原油，就必须进口我们的资源。我们已经非常明确地表达了这一点。在某种程度上，如果你还不明白的话，我们在某些方面是疯狂的。数据非常清晰：美国每天消耗2100万桶石油，生产1300万桶，他们的出口部分原因是因为我们的支持。在铀方面也可以这样说。萨斯喀彻温供应了全世界20%的铀，而美国仍然从哈萨克斯坦和俄罗斯进口大量铀。看看中国，他们最近确定了三种对国防供应链至关重要的矿产，他们决定不再向美国出口这些矿物：锗、锑和镓。我们有能力开发这些矿物，包括锂。每个省都有提供关键矿物的价值主张，以支持美国的国防、能源安全、人工智能优势。这就是我所强调的，我觉得这是一个值得分享的故事。 关于加拿大与美国的能源合作方面，我和很多大公司的高管和CEO交流过，他们对联邦政府的投资环境有他们的看法。尽管我们在联邦层面上遇到了一些反对开采能源的政策，我们仍然在2014年超过沙特阿拉伯成为美国最大的出口国，并继续增长。虽然有一些大项目被取消了，比如Keystone和Northern Gateway，但我们仍然有一些项目建成了，这让我们能够增加产量。我们的能源部门非常创新，遇到困难时总能找到解决方案。即使不能建新的管道，他们也会找到其他办法，比如采用环绕方式或加压生产，甚至通过火车运输。 我当选时提议我们应该志存高远，讨论将石油和天然气产量翻倍。要实现这一目标，需要我们与加拿大的合作伙伴一起重新调整，认识到如果东部能从阿尔伯塔获得可靠的供应，情况会更好，而西部也能受益。这些是我提出的论点。许多公司正在重新启动旧计划，三家油砂公司已宣布计划扩大产量。我与Enbridge召开了新闻发布会，他们有一个相当重要的多部分提案，增加输往美国的通道。我知道TC和Pembina也在计划中。所以我认为，如果我们能解决政治因素，大家都很有兴趣深入解决这个问题。

No, just just adding on. Yeah, sorry, just adding on to I mean, we're all sort of saying the same perspective here on energy, but another way to look at it Danielle from our side. The more energy that we're exporting, the more foreign currency is coming in, which is US dollars, the world operates in US dollars the way it is. The more US dollar currency is coming in, it makes our currency, Canadian dollar stronger. If we're able to shift our view and outlook and production and already in yours in the energy space, the opportunity for Canada to simply blast off. We can have this economic catapult coming up here. And the other thing to think about because you mentioned earlier in the conversation, you know, the American things have changed and they're not going to change back for a while. But if you look at, you know, what's happened with government spending in the US, it's going to get better.

不，不好意思，我只是想补充一下。我们在谈论能源问题时，其实都持有相同的观点。不同的角度是，丹妮尔，从我们的角度来看，我们出口的能源越多，进来的外币就越多，比如美元。世界经济主要是以美元运作的。美元收入的增加会使我们的货币加元更强。如果我们能够在能源领域调整我们的看法、展望和生产，加拿大就有机会实现经济的腾飞。这可能成为促进我们经济的跳板。你之前提到美国情况变化了，而且暂时不会恢复原样。不过如果你看看美国的政府开支问题，情况会有所好转。

Canada is getting worse. You'll get red tape in the US. It's going to get better in Canada. It's getting worse taxes in the US. It's going down. Canada going up. If we have this slight change in Canada with overall policy and towards natural resources, the amount of foreign investment that's just going to gush into Canada is going to go through the roof. And then, you know, obviously, Alberta would benefit from that directly. But the rest of Canada would benefit from it as well in terms of a strengthening dollar, more jobs, increased productivity, which everyone should understand in high school. It should be tough. I don't think it is. But again, like, you know, we have a lot of challenges coming up as a country.

加拿大的情况正在变差。你在美国会遇到繁文缛节，但加拿大的情况会好转。美国的税收情况变得更糟糕，而加拿大在改善。如果加拿大在整体政策和自然资源方面有些微变化，那么涌入加拿大的外国投资就会大幅增加。这将直接使阿尔伯塔省受益，同时加拿大其他地区也会从中受益，比如货币升值、更多的就业机会和生产力的提高，这些在高中就应该理解。虽然可能有些难，我不认为会如此。但同时，我们作为一个国家也面临很多挑战。

But the fruit, it's very low hanging. This is incredibly easy to fix. If the decision makers here or people are going to the table, they're able to understand, you know, what the other side is asking for. I think Rich has something to show you on his shirt as well. But some of that.

但这些果实是非常低垂的。这是非常容易解决的问题。如果这里的决策者或与会者能够理解对方的需求，我认为Rich也有一些东西要给你看，就在他的衬衫上。

To mind if I get rich to educate me a bit, because I understood that our balance of payments, if you look at the whole picture, including investment outflows, that we're actually in the deficit, that we have $400 billion in investment flowing out to America. Is that the kind of thing that you're, I mean, so when you're talking about reversing that flow, yes, I agree, that's going to be very important. But maybe you can just that those are the numbers I've been told. Is that accurate?

你介意我通过了解一些知识来致富吗？因为我了解到，从整体来看，包括投资流出，我们的国际收支实际上是逆差，我们有4000亿美元的投资流向了美国。你是这个意思吗？是的，我同意，逆转这种流向确实很重要。但也许你可以确认一下，这些数字是否准确？

Well, those are two, there's two things going on. There's that's the financial, that's just financial or capital account. So when you think about investment flow, that's the capital account. That's how you fund a specific purchase of anything. That concludes sort of your investment position. And that's sort of that's like on one side of the ledger. The side of the ledger that I spend a lot of time on and focus on is the current account balance with the trade balance. And that includes a trade in services.

好吧，有两件事情在进行中。一个是关于金融的，也就是资本账户。当你考虑投资流动时，那就是资本账户。它是用来为任何特定购买提供资金的，这构成了你的投资立场的一部分。这就像账本的一边。而我花很多时间关注的账本的另一边是经常账户余额，它包括贸易余额以及服务贸易。

And then something called primary and secondary income, which is just nerdy stuff for like dividend payments or like, let's say IMF and stuff, repatriations, things like that. But both of the matter, does it not does not not for a rich country, primary and secondary incomes don't really matter for services, Canada, it's basically we're slightly positive. The financial capital account, the real issue for Canada is not so much that we don't have inflows. So you'll hear the liberal party talk about financial direct investment is at a record level coming into Canada. The problem is Canadians are investing more and more money outside of Canada. So that deficit is growing and it's not growing. It's growing because Canadians are seeking greener pastures for their money, which is eminently sensible.

然后是所谓的初级收入和次级收入，这些只是一堆专业术语，比如股息支付，或者说像国际货币基金组织（IMF）那样的资金回流之类的东西。不过这些对富裕国家来说是否重要呢？基本上对服务业来说，初级和次级收入并不太重要。在加拿大，我们这方面基本上是略有盈余。真实的问题在于，加拿大并不是资金流入不足。你会听到自由党说，进入加拿大的金融直接投资达到了创纪录的水平。问题在于，加拿大人在越来越多地把资金投往国外。因此，这种赤字不断增长，但并不是因为我们缺少流入资金，而是因为加拿大人为了获得更好的投资回报选择在国外投资，这完全是可以理解的。

And so what we what I've argued over and over and over again, is we need to make Canada a more appealing place to invest for Canadians, which is why when I hear them wanting to mess around with the pension funds and make it to basically force their hand to own Canadian companies, I'm just like, they all they do is treat the symptom and not the cause. And for someone like me who is just, you know, nerd, you know, knee deep in the numbers, it just drives me absolutely nuts. And so that that's really where I come from. But you're right, they are absolutely connected.

我一直不断地在强调，我们需要让加拿大对投资者，特别是加拿大人来说，更有吸引力。这就是为什么当我听到有人想要干预养老金基金，基本上迫使它们购买加拿大公司时，我感到非常无奈，因为他们只是在治标不治本。对于像我这种深陷于数据分析的人来说，这让我感到非常沮丧。这就是我的立场。但你说得对，这些问题确实是紧密相关的。

But in this case, it's, is that is that a point of argument I can make with the Americans? Oh, look how much Canadian Canadians are asking to charge? I can send you the charge. I can send you the chart right now on WhatsApp. I'll take it. I mean, I'll send you my chart deck, I'm sure. Keep on mind. We'll get you a ticket to Mar-a-Lago. I'd love to. I'd love to. But yeah, I think the thing that like just so you understand, I've made this case over and over again, and we've gotten some pushback.

但在这种情况下，我可以用这个作为与美国人争论的理由吗？哦，看看加拿大人要收费多少？我可以通过WhatsApp发送给你收费表。我会发送给你我的图表资料，我确定。请记住，我们会给你一张去海湖庄园的票。我很愿意去。但我想让你明白，我一再提出这个理由，也遇到了一些反对意见。

And I think the other thing that I was just wondering your view, it's like Canada has really expensive energy. And I think that that's the other mistake people often make. It's like, it's not just about exporting energy. It's about exploiting the energy we have to make things cheaper here. Right? So there's every, every country is in a state of competition. And I get, I just wondering like how you feel about the, like, there's a lot of hope and Keith lays out an opportunity. But the reality is, is our capital, gross fixed capital formation in terms of mining aspirations at a 30 year low. And so what would you need from the next sort of administration of this country to see, for to unlock that investment? Like, what do we need to, like, let's forget about this lame duck administration that we have now. It's going forward over the next two, three years. What do you need as, and what does Quebec need? What does Ontario need to sort of unlock this potential?

翻译如下： 我在想，您怎么看待这样一个问题，加拿大的能源非常昂贵。我觉得这是人们常犯的另一个错误。实际上，不仅仅是关于出口能源，更重要的是如何利用我们现有的能源来降低本地的成本。每个国家都在竞争之中。我想知道您对这样一个情况有何感想：虽然有很多希望，Keith指出了一个机会，但现实是，我们在矿业投资方面的固定资产投资增速达到了30年来的最低点。那么您认为下一届政府需要做些什么才能释放这样的投资？让我们暂时不谈论现在这届无作为的政府，着眼于未来的两三年。您认为需要做些什么？魁北克和安大略又需要做些什么来释放这个潜力？

Well, I think what we need is an end to the carbon tax. I mean, I don't, what you think that that is just a soundbite. It matters a lot in our economy. Because if you buy a, a leader of gasoline in Alberta, 35 cents of it is one federal tax or another, whether it's their fuel tax, their carbon tax or the GST on tax. That's significant on the cost of everything that we transport. It's even worse when you get to looking at our energy sector, our electricity is typically 85 to 90% fuel by natural gas. And our home heating is almost 100% natural gas. And they've set the rates so high that with such a low price of gas, the carbon tax is actually four times the cost of the base fuel. So you're home heating, your home electricity, and your transportation fuel. If those keep on adding on to the cost of everything, it's no, it's no wonder we have an inflation crisis.

我认为我们需要取消碳税。你可能觉得这只是一个口号，但它对我们的经济影响很大。在阿尔伯塔省，买一升汽油，其中35分钱都要缴各种联邦税，包括燃油税、碳税和商品及服务税（GST）。运输的成本因此大幅增加。更严重的是，我们的能源领域，电力几乎85%到90%依靠天然气，而家庭供暖几乎是完全依赖天然气。因为税率设置得太高，即便天然气价格很低，碳税的费用实际上是基础燃料成本的四倍。因此，你的家庭供暖、电力和交通燃料的费用都在不断增加，难怪我们会出现通货膨胀危机。

The other part is the, the permitting delay. When you look at the permitting delay, they're having permitting reform, bipartisan permitting reform conversation in the United States. And that's why the interior minister is also sort of the head of this energy council. He's going to be coordinating between the seven or eight different ministries and agencies that touch a project to be able to fast track the approvals on it. How wants to take to get something built in this country? When you're looking at energy east, they pulled the plug after a billion dollars of some cost on the regulatory side, because they saw no avenue to be able to get it approved.

另一部分是许可延迟。当你观察许可延迟时，你会发现美国正在进行两党合作的许可改革对话。这就是为什么内政部长也担任了能源委员会的负责人。他将协调涉及一个项目的七到八个不同的部委和机构，以便能够加快审批的速度。在这个国家，想要建成一个项目需要多长时间？以“能源东线”项目为例，他们在监管方面已经投入了十亿美元，却最终中止了项目，因为他们看不到任何可以获得批准的途径。

So that's one of the things we're going to have to perhaps learn from the Americans on is how do they address the indigenous issues, the difference in the jurisdictions for different levels of government, as well as all the environmental concerns. And these are some things that we can borrow. When I was, I went up and visited my friend, Range Pillay up in Nadi, Yukon. He hosted the premiers up there. That gold rush was in 1898, 1899. They managed in that day to build an entire train in the course of about 18 months to be able to support the gold rush. How could they do that when things were being moved around by barge for heaven's sakes? Why could they do that in the late 1800s? And we can't do that today. That's the question that is on my mind. And that's the question we've got to solve.

所以，我们可能需要向美国人学习的一件事就是他们如何处理土著问题、不同政府层级的司法管辖差异以及所有环境方面的担忧。这些都是我们可以借鉴的东西。当我去拜访在育空地区纳迪的朋友Range Pillay时，他在那里接待了各省长。淘金热发生在1898至1899年间，当时他们竟然能在大约18个月内建成一条完整的铁路，以支持淘金热。为什么在那个时候，他们能在用驳船运输物资的情况下做到这些？为什么他们在1800年代末能做到，而我们今天却不能？这个问题在我心中挥之不去，也是我们必须解决的问题。

Danielle, we know you got a hard stop here. We want to thank you so much for taking your time to come on the loony hour. We appreciate all the hard work effort that you're you know, doing not only for Alberta, but for all of Canada. And yeah, we again, thank you so much for coming on the loony hour.

丹妮尔，我们知道你时间有限。非常感谢你抽出时间来参加这次节目。我们十分感激你为阿尔伯塔省乃至整个加拿大所付出的辛勤努力。再次感谢你参加我们的节目。

Well, thank you. If you're making all of these arguments, the more voices added to this, the better. I hope we can avoid terrorists and get back to talking about what a great partnership we have with the Americans and try to solve some of our own problems here. So we can get some of those investment dollars back. Thanks for the work you do. Absolutely. Thank you. It was a yeah, Keith.

好的，谢谢你。你提出的所有这些观点，增加越多不同的声音越好。我希望我们可以避开恐怖分子，回到讨论我们和美国人的良好合作关系，并努力解决我们自己的一些问题。这样我们就能吸引一些投资回来了。感谢你的工作。真的谢谢你。是的，Keith。

Now we're back in current time. Back in current time. Great interview with Danielle Smith. Hopefully everyone, you know, found some insights out of that. You know, she's been working hard. She's taking a lot of heat from all sorts of Canadians and different policy makers, etc. But I think she's done a great job. And you know, it's interesting, right? We had a lot of net coming out this just what yesterday, Rich, saying that you know, there might not be any tariffs so long as the Canadians can secure their border and you know, commit to cracking down on the drugs.

现在我们回到了当下。回到当下。对丹妮尔·史密斯的采访非常棒。希望大家都能从中获得一些见解。你知道，她一直在努力工作，面对来自各类加拿大人和不同政策制定者的各种压力。但我觉得她做得很出色。而且很有趣，对吧？就在昨天，Rich说如果加拿大能够保证边境安全并承诺打击毒品，那么可能就不会有任何关税。

And so I think that's a reasonable request. Now there, you know, I heard some commentary as well, Rich, that the tariffs might be sort of phased in two stages. Yeah. So basically, there might not be any tariffs for now and they're going to review it again in April and kind of see where things are at and figure out how they want to implement them. But I think we could potentially avoid the first round of tariffs so long as we actually commit to securing the border and clamping down on, you know, the fentanyl that is coming into the United States. I don't know if you have any thoughts on that.

我认为这是一个合理的请求。Rich，我也听到一些评论，说关税可能会分两个阶段引入。也就是说，目前可能不会立即实施关税，他们会在四月份再次审查情况，并决定如何实施。我认为，只要我们真正承诺加强边境安全，遏制芬太尼流入美国，我们就有可能避免第一轮关税。不知道你对此有何看法。

I mean, I certainly do. There's a lot going around on Twitter. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I just do I think it's you know, it's funny because as you know, we've had the interview, we've the interview has been able to sort of marinate on our hard drives and in our hearts and minds. But also just, you know, it really reiterates, I think Danielle Smith's original take on this from a couple weeks ago, which is, you know, there's a lot of room to work together with the United States.

我的意思是，我当然同意。在推特上有很多相关讨论。是的，是的。我的意思是，我觉得这很有趣，因为正如你知道的那样，我们进行了采访，这次采访可以说一直在我们的心中和我们的硬盘中沉淀。但是，这也确实重申了几周前Danielle Smith的最初观点，那就是与美国合作还有很多空间。

And the view that I think a lot of the media and much of the Canadian political class have taken is sort of an antagonist view sort of confrontational view. You know, the Trump is the enemy and we're on the right side of history, etc, etc. And instead of what I think what she laid out for us in our interview and in many others, that there's actually scope for work. There's loads of sort of common ground. And I think that I think that that's we're seeing that with Howard Lutt next comments.

很多媒体和加拿大的政治阶层抱有一种对立的观点，这种观点可以说是有些对抗性的。他们认为，特朗普是敌人，而我们站在历史的正确一边，等等。然而，我认为她在我们的采访中以及许多其他采访中所阐述的观点是，其实存在合作的空间，有很多共同点。我认为我们在Howard Lutt最近的评论中也看到了这种情况。

I think people don't like it. I know one of my best friends and I had a huge sort of dust up over it. But this is the real the only economic stick that they have to get policy goals that they've laid out and frankly that they have the mandate for. And you know, some people might not like it. I know my best friend hates it. But so I think it's a question with a question. What is your friend's name? What is he there? Ball him out. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, serious.

我觉得人们不太喜欢这样。我和我最好的朋友之一因为这个发生了一次大争吵。但这是他们为了实现已经制定的政策目标而唯一能使用的经济杠杆，坦率地说，他们有这个权力这么做。虽然有些人可能不喜欢，我知道我最好的朋友就很讨厌这个。所以我认为这是个值得探讨的问题。你朋友叫什么名字？他在吗？不，不，不，我不是开玩笑，真的。

What was the view of of your friends? I hear a lot of conversations as well. And I'm sure it might represent up, you know, yeah, I think he makes a very valid argument that he thinks it's outrageous that our biggest ally and trading partners should be so antagonistic towards us and that you basically try to affect our sovereignty. And that Canadians should absolutely be defending our sovereignty and put our own interests first. And that we shouldn't take any shit from this guy.

你朋友们是怎么看的？我听到很多讨论，但我觉得ta的观点可能代表了一些人的想法。ta认为我们的最大盟友和贸易伙伴对我们态度如此敌对，实在令人愤怒，并试图影响我们的主权。加拿大人绝对应该捍卫我们的主权，把自己的利益放在首位，不能听任这个人对我们颐指气使。

And regardless of whether he's right or wrong, ultimately on that policy decision that Canada should be united and confront this sort of this policy tone that is sort of against, you know, a more cordial collective action. And other side of that, his view, isn't that what the Americans are doing? Yeah, I mean, yeah, I mean, we had a death of it. I mean, objective about it. I mean, Americans are saying, hey, we're looking at ourselves. We don't like this arrangement and the result from it.

无论他在政策决定上是对是错，加拿大最终应该团结起来，对抗这种不利于更加友好的集体行动的政策基调。另一方面，他的观点是：难道这不是美国人正在做的事情吗？是的，我的意思是，我们在这方面经历过一些问题。美国人是客观地看待这个问题的，他们在说，我们在审视自己，对这种安排及其结果不太满意。

And we need to have it fixed. Yeah. And the Canadian saying, we don't like what you guys want to do. So we're going to fight you guys. And it's this is where the difficulty is. Well, Keith, I agree with you. And that's what I think a lot of the comments Daniel Smith exposes, which is I think that there's some people in this country who are you you're finding political use out of this. It's useful for them to have an enemy.

我们需要解决这个问题。是的。加拿大人说，我们不喜欢你们想做的事情，所以我们要反对你们。这就是困难所在。嗯，基思，我同意你的看法。我认为很多丹尼尔·史密斯所揭露的评论都说明，国内有些人正在从中寻找政治利用价值，对他们来说，有一个敌人是有用的。

You know, it's useful to have somebody to blame to then do whatever you want on the fiscal side, which we'll talk about in a second. So I comment, yeah, but a world like as long as you know, the world has existed, when you have a domestic or internal challenge with anything, you know, what you immediately have to do is to find an outside influence to, you know, to redirect, you know, the unhappiness or anger or unpleasant media about anything. And that's, you know, that's what's happening here. Because I've been reading the media is all week. And it's just, again, it's not right or wrong. It's just what it is. But it seems like what I'm reading mostly, I don't mean 51%, it's like 99%.

在财政方面，找一个替罪羊确实很有用，这样就可以随心所欲地采取行动。我们稍后会讨论这个问题。我想说，自从世界存在以来，当国内或内部出现挑战时，通常需要寻找外部因素来转移不满、愤怒或负面媒体的注意力。这就是这里正在发生的事情。我这周一直在读媒体报道，发现它们大多是这样。不是说这种做法是对的或错的，而是事实就是如此。而这些报道几乎占据了我阅读内容的绝大多数，不是51%，而是接近99%。

You know, you're getting the movements together, you know, do not travel to the USA when you're buying anything to see where it's made. And if it's made in the USA, you know, don't buy or catch up. Do you hear about that? But suing him, apparently, anyway, sorry. I actually, yeah. I don't know that one. What's happening with the Heinz? You said you should use true. You came out. Yeah. You like you should buy, I don't know, was it French's or how do you even know what it is with any one of the two catch ups? He was like, don't buy Heinz catch up. It's American by French's. And then Heinz was like, what the hell? These are, we manufacture the catch up in Canada with Canadian tomatoes. And it's like 10 minutes away from his constituency. So it's, it's complicated. Let's just say that.

你知道的，现在有些运动倡导不要购买美国制造的产品，所以如果你在购买东西时发现它是美国产的，就不要买。这件事你听说过吗？他们好像还因为这个问题打算起诉他。抱歉，我其实不是很了解这个事情。你提到过关于亨氏的事，你应该说的是买另一种番茄酱，比如French's。有人说不要买亨氏番茄酱，因为它是美国品牌，应该买French's。结果亨氏回应说，他们的番茄酱是在加拿大用加拿大番茄生产的，工厂距离那个人的选区只有十分钟的路程。所以情况有点复杂。

But back to the, yeah, the whole thing here, you know, I think we, you know, we go back in time a few days ago, I, I believe, you know, we try to go down the road, the conversation is, you know, sit at the table and say, okay, what is it you guys, I'm referring to America, what do you America, what do you want? Right. You don't want to put on terrorists. I mean, that's a response to something else. And as Steve, you brought up, you know, it's a curiosity at the border and drugs and rich, you talked about the Arctic and everything. And then all our response up here has to be is simply, okay, well, how do we make this better? And then, you know, you throw it back at them. And that's how you have a negotiation.

好的，让我们回到正题。几天前，我们曾试图沿着这个方向讨论，也就是说，坐在谈判桌前，对美国说：“你们想要什么？”你们不想要关税吧，那只是对其他事情的回应。而正如Steve提到的，关于边境、毒品的问题，Rich则谈到了北极等等。我们的回应很简单，那就是“我们怎么能把事情变得更好？”然后再把问题抛给他们，这就是谈判的方式。

And I think what everyone needs to understand, they appreciate this world that we've all lived in over the last 30, 40 years, where we've been, that's gone. Like that doesn't exist anymore. And it's going to be a little bit different going forward. And as soon as we accept that, then we can all move on. You'll have a better path here. But we have another response that could potentially come from this for political reasons. This seems to be an awful lot of people out of Ottawa, the feds in Ontario now as well. They're itching for a fight with us. They want to fight back. They want to tax more and everything.

我认为大家需要明白，我们过去30或40年间生活的这个世界已经不复存在了。未来的情况会有些不同。一旦我们接受了这一点，就能更好地前行。然而，由于政治原因，可能会有另一个反应。似乎有很多来自渥太华和现在安大略省的联邦政府官员，他们跃跃欲试地想和我们对抗。他们想反击，想加税等等。

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Can I just jump in there for a sec? Because I think what's interesting, this is between rich and low-tech stuff. A lot of niggas saying, again, secure the borders, clamp down on the drugs, whatever. There's a whole bunch of Canadians that are like angry about that. Even if that wasn't part of the tariff thing, is that a bad thing if we tighten up our borders and clamp down on all the fentanyl? I think we can all agree, Canada's got a good fentanyl problem. If you look on to end. Drug problem and border problem and a money-wandering problem and a China problem and a rare earth problem, keep going, sorry.

翻译成中文： 我可以插一句吗？因为我觉得有趣的是，这涉及到了富人和低科技的东西。很多人又在说，要保卫边境，加强打击毒品等等。许多加拿大人对此感到愤怒。即使那不是贸易关税问题的一部分，如果我们加强边境管理，打击芬太尼，这会是坏事吗？我想我们都同意，加拿大确实有芬太尼问题。如果继续看下去，还有毒品问题、边境问题、洗钱问题、中国问题和稀土问题，等等。抱歉，我继续说。

Yeah, if you go into any major city in Canada today in a downtown core, the drugs and homelessness and obviously the rampant fentanyl problem, it's been well documented. So, Steve, why are they saying it's not a problem? You said that Twitter, other people are defending it saying, hey, everything is fine. I think the problem is, there's some misleading charts out there, which is if you look, it was in the globe of mail, says drug seized by US authorities at land borders in kilograms by fiscal year. So, the Southwest border is obviously seizing a lot more drugs than the Northern border. There's been hardly any drug seized. So, people are saying, well, because of this chart, I mean, we don't have a drug problem in Canada. But I think that's completely misleading. I think that if you look at what's happening- Like the goalie is not stopping anything? Totally.

是的，如果你今天去加拿大任何一个大城市的市中心，你会发现毒品、无家可归以及泛滥的芬太尼问题，这些问题已经被大量报道。那么，Steve，他们为什么说这不是个问题呢？你说在推特上，还有些人在维护这种说法，说一切都很好。我认为问题在于，一些具有误导性的图表存在，比如《环球邮报》上有一个图表显示按财年计算美国当局在陆地边界查获的毒品数量（以公斤计算）。显然，西南边境查获的毒品数量远远超过了北部边境。在北部几乎没有毒品被查获。所以，有人就说，嗯，因为这个图表，我们在加拿大没有毒品问题。但我认为这是完全误导的。我觉得如果看看实际情况，就好像守门员什么都没挡住一样，根本没起作用。

So, go to Canada. So, Canada and Q4, just recently, right? We just, this is all over the news. There was a lab bust in BC here, which was producing about 4% of the volume that was seized at the US borders. There's a massive bust. You just had another huge bust in Alberta, which was producing about 1% of the volume that was seized at the US border. So, like, there's these massive, like, we're seeing some of the largest lab busts in history right now, in some of these Canadian provinces. So, like it's clearly out there. Like I said, we've had Sam Cooper on the show. I think we'll either get him back on or we'll get another guest that has an expertise or a specialty in sort of security and borders and things of that nature.

所以，去看看加拿大。最近，加拿大和第四季度的情况，这个消息到处都是。在不列颠哥伦比亚省这里，有一个实验室被查封，这是一个大规模的破获案件，其产量大约占被美国边境截获量的4%。除此之外，在阿尔伯塔省也发生了另一起大型的实验室查封事件，其产量约占被美国边境截获量的1%。这些加拿大学省的实验室查封案是历史上最大的之一。这显然是个问题。就像我之前提到的那样，我们有请过Sam Cooper做节目嘉宾。我想我们可能会请他再次上节目，或者邀请另一位在安全和边境事务方面有专长的嘉宾来讨论这些问题。

But I think it's well known. I mean, the joke is, you know, Canada's Arctic Mexico. I mean, like, it's well documented the money laundering that's been going on here. You know, again, I think Sam Cooper wrote a brilliant book. I mean, we had people were walking into casinos in Richmond, BC with hockey bags of cash. It's so well documented. And people wondered like, what happened at the real estate boom in 2015, 2016, all the illicit funny money coming in. I mean, and then to say, to say, well, we don't like Trump, we don't like this lotnik guy. It's not a probably who cares. Even if he's not saying it, I think we can all agree that, hey, maybe it's a good idea to clamp down on fentanyl. Maybe it's a good idea to sort of get this under control. So forget Trump and forget all this other stuff. Like, just you should be doing it anyways. They're just providing you a carrot to say, hey, if you do it, you know, we'll let you off the hook. So I don't know.

但是，我认为这是众所周知的。我是说，大家常说的玩笑是，加拿大是北极的墨西哥。我是说，这里的洗钱活动早就有记录，比如，Sam Cooper 写了一本很棒的书。比如，过去人们带着装满现金的冰球包走进位于BC省列治文市的赌场，这些事情都有详细记录。人们曾经很好奇为什么2015年和2016年的房地产市场突然繁荣，背后有多少不义之财流入。这说明，即使我们不同意特朗普或其他人员的意见，至少我们都能认同，解决芬太尼问题可能是个好主意，控制这种情况也是必要的。因此，无论如何都应该采取行动，他们只是提供了一个诱因，说如果你这么做了，他们就不会追责。所以，我不太清楚。

I mean, that's just kind of like, wouldn't that destroy jobs in the drug industry? I mean, the economy, that's a right. I heard Vancouver real estate prices. So maybe we should just let it keep going. Actually, I wouldn't be shocked if somebody in Ottawa, when the provinces actually use that as an angle. But just one throwing in there, one little tiny little tidbit was remember the TV just a couple of months ago, TD Bank. I'm hopefully don't know the name. They got the biggest fine, TD is the 10th largest bank in America. So the TD subsidiary of TD Canada is this 10th largest bank in America and was given the largest fine ever for a bank for money laundering, all to do with drugs, basically. Yeah, to say the word, allegedly, sorry, allegedly. And not TD Bank was yes, TD Bank was fine. Three billion US after pleading guilty in a historic US money laundering case.

这句话的大意是：如果采取某些措施，那不是会对制药行业的就业造成影响吗？我听说温哥华的房地产价格很高，所以也许我们应该让事情继续发展下去。实际上，我不会感到惊讶，如果有一天在加拿大的渥太华，有人以此作为一个理由来采取行动。顺便提一下，几个月前在电视上看到道明银行（TD Bank），希望你不知道具体名称。道明银行是美国第十大银行，并因涉嫌与毒品有关的洗钱活动而被罚款——这是银行史上最大规模的罚款之一。据称，道明银行同意支付30亿美元罚款，以了结这次洗钱案。

It's funny because I think like the fine in Canada was like, it's like tiny. Well, HSBC, I think they were fined four or five billion. Yeah, maybe five or six years ago. One of the reasons why they shut up shut up shop. But anyway, I think the TDC. Anyways, so clearly, I think, you know, we might not like what the US is doing to us, but I think they might have a point that maybe we should. There's, I don't know, I don't see any bad reason to clamp down on that, but we shall see. So February 1st is the looming deadline. You know, you're probably listening to this on the 31st. So, you know, we'll see. We'll see what happens. But what's interesting out of all this, right, is you've got the US saying, okay, you know, clamp down on that and we'll kind of let you off the hook. And then we've got the government. So we've got the federal government. We have most of the premiers coming out. We had BC's David Eby. We had Doug Ford. I think there was maybe another guy in there too, but all coming out and saying they're all preparing behind the scenes or preparing a pandemic style stimulus. Pandemic style stimulus is being drafted up right now for if we get hit with these tariffs stuff, the helicopter money is coming.

这很有趣，因为我觉得在加拿大的罚款很小。而汇丰银行在大约五、六年前被罚了四五十亿美元，这也是其关停的一大原因。不过，不管怎么说，我认为可能美国对我们的指责有一定道理，我们也许应该采取些措施。我看不出有什么不好的理由来对此进行打击控制。不过，到2月1日是个关键日期。你可能在1月31日听到这个消息，我们会看到会发生什么。有趣的是，美国表示，如果我们采取行动控制住这个问题，他们可能会放我们一马。同时，加拿大联邦政府和大多数省长也参与了进来，比如BC省的David Eby、Doug Ford等。他们都在幕后准备一种类似于疫情时期的经济刺激计划，以备我们受到关税影响时能使用。直升机撒钱的计划正在制定中。

The choppers are circling. One word. Oh, dear. Oh, dear. So what do you thoughts on that? Like, why don't you run through I mean, what potential impact it could have on the Canadian economy from an aggregate perspective and also from an international global. Hey, Red, start go about there buying your pre sales now, buddy. I think it's a tough one though, right? Because I don't policy first. Yeah. I don't the fiscal policy. I mean, it would just be, I guess they I don't know how they do. They provide loads of loan guarantees. There would be some make work projects I imagine. I've seen and I've seen articles where they would literally just be sending checks to people. Where would they get the money? Where would they get the money for this? Oh, where would they get the money? They'd get the money. They would issue debt and that debt was almost would almost certainly be purchased by the Bank of Canada. And of course, we've seen this story before in 2020. This happened.

直升机在盘旋。一个词：哦，天哪，哦，天哪。你怎么看这件事？比如，为什么不分析一下从整体上和国际全球角度来看，这可能对加拿大经济产生的影响呢？嘿，Red，赶紧去买预售吧，兄弟。我觉得这个问题很棘手，对吧？因为我首先想到的是政策问题。我不知道财政政策，他们可能会提供大量贷款担保。我想会有一些就业项目。我看过一些文章，说他们可能真的会给人们寄支票。他们哪里来的钱？他们会从哪里得到这笔钱？哦，他们会从哪里得到这笔钱呢？他们会发行债务，而这些债务几乎可以肯定会被加拿大央行买下。当然，我们在2020年也见过类似的情况。

They would do that because if they issued debt in this size, into this circumstance without having this gentle bank print money, yes, they're printing money, not literally with a frickin, you know, paper parchment and ink, but like, boop, boop, boop on a computer, they're printing the money. If they didn't do that, it would send yield soaring, which they're already pretty high, by the way, but it would send yields absolutely soaring. And so in order to prevent to control the yield curve when they issue boat loads and boat loads and boatloads of debt, the central bank would come in and effectively sterilize or purchase that debt, which would keep the yield curve down. So that's kind of interesting because yesterday, what are the Bank of Canada now? Yeah, they stopped. What would they stop? They stop quantitative tightening, which is the opposite of quantitative easing, right, easing, not easing, easing to some reasoning.

他们这么做是因为如果在这种情况下发行大量债务，而没有央行来印钞（是的，他们确实印钞，但不是用纸和墨水，而是在电脑上按按键打印），那么收益率将会飙升。目前收益率已经相当高了，但如果不这样做，收益率会激增。为了控制他们发行大量债务时的收益率曲线，央行会介入，购买这部分债务，从而保持收益率曲线的稳定。这很有趣，因为昨天，加拿大央行停止了缩表操作（量化紧缩），而这与量化宽松正好相反。

Yeah. But the main gist here, what we're getting, if we get all this stimulus coming through from the provincial level, to say it's Ontario, for example, Ontario province has to issue a boatload of debt. Yeah, they all did all the profits. Yeah, and then the feds will do the exact same thing. And that means the deficit, you know, the whisper number was 70 something billion. I think that's going to be for the year, right, when it was when we finish here. I mean, so you know, COVID style, I think was a 490 billion. Yeah, I mean, that was the first chunk. I mean, it was more than 10% of that. So say an extra 40 or 50 billion. That could be reasonable. And that will never be repaid. Well, I mean, well, it won't. Yeah, it's never been paid.

好的，这里主要的意思是，如果安大略省（举个例子）从省级层面获得大量刺激措施，那么安大略省可能需要发行大量债务来支持这些措施。各省可能都在赚取利润，而联邦政府也会采取类似的行动。这意味着赤字可能会达到70多亿，这只是一个估计数字，我觉得这是今年的预期。当我们完成这一年时，赤字可能会增加到大约490亿，比如疫情期间的数字。这只是最初的部分，可能会超过这个数字的10%，也就是额外增加40到50亿左右。这些欠债很可能永远不会还清，其实，确实很难偿还。

So it's going to be one of these, you know, let's hand out, you know, so-called free money, you know, it's one of the political leaders said once we've taken on the debt. So you wouldn't have to. So nuts. The same God, they said the budget will balance itself and really, you know, monetary policy to the bankers and everything. But we're, we are caught up in this political game. Right. And we have to absolutely acknowledge this. And we are now potentially set up, you know, the liberal leadership race that I assume would be in theory over pretty soon. It looks like it's going to be Mark Hearney. And he's already demonstrated before and what kind of policies he would support. And I think, Steve, your friend, Jack Meade, he's going to support it as well. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, that's actually big news. I didn't really think about that. But yeah.

所以这就变成了那种情况，你知道的，就是发放所谓的“免费”资金。正如某位政治领袖所说，我们承担了债务，这样你就不必承担。简直是疯了。他们曾经说过预算会自动平衡，还说把货币政策交给银行家等等。但我们被卷入了这种政治游戏。我们必须清楚地认识到这一点。现在，自由党的领导权争夺战可能很快就会结束，看起来马克·卡尼可能会成为领导人。他之前已经展示了他会支持什么样的政策。而且我觉得，史蒂夫，你的朋友贾格米特也会支持。这真的算是个大新闻，我以前没怎么考虑过，但确实是这样。

So Jack Meade was out, I was all over the news headlines saying that he would, you know, strongly consider supporting basically the helicopter money, right? If tariffs come in and the economy gets hit hard and people start losing jobs. When Parliament resumes, he would, he indicated that he would consider supporting a stimulus package, basically, which, which means you can't vote no confidence, right? You can't, you can't vote against that budget and force the election. So essentially, by Jack Meade supporting, let's say, a liberal cash infusion, it would delay the fall of Parliament or the fall of government and push an election further out. So he's kind of going back to October basis. I mean, yeah, nine more lines, potentially.

所以杰克·米德已经表态，他会认真考虑支持所谓的"直升机撒钱"政策。就是说，如果关税开始实施，经济受到严重冲击，人们失业加剧的话，他会考虑支持一个刺激措施。米德在议会复会时表示，他可能会支持一项刺激计划，这也意味着他不能对这个预算投不信任票，迫使举行选举。因此，基本上， 如果杰克·米德支持这种比如说更自由的现金注入计划，这将推迟政府的垮台或议会的解散，从而把选举进一步往后推。所以，他有点回到了十月的立场，可能还会多延长九个阶段。

But boy, it's just to like take the, take the other side of this to be the devil's advocate here. I mean, like, what there wouldn't have to be some, let's say, like, let's just play this out. Like Liberal Party is obstinate. They said, we love fentanyl. We love our sovereignty. You shouldn't tell us what to do. The US says, okay, screw you, we're going to put a tariff. We know most of the inflows to America are oil. We know that they have a trade surplus with goods and services. And it would be extremely disrupted. Twenty five percent is an enormous amount. It would, it would be extremely disruptive. There's lots of uncertainty. Should the government not then react? And wouldn't it be responsible to react? And I would submit, yeah, it would be, they would, it would be actually a sensible idea to at least to create, try to sort of cushion some of that uncertainty to do absolutely nothing, I think would be wrong also. Yeah, I mean, I disagree. Share with you an idea here first.

但是，让我们换个角度，从唱反调的角度来看这个问题。假设，自由党非常固执，他们说，我们喜欢芬太尼，我们珍视我们的主权，你们不应该告诉我们该怎么做。于是美国说，好吧，那随便你们，我们要对你们加征关税。我们知道流入美国的大部分是石油，我们知道他们在商品和服务上有贸易顺差。这样的关税将会带来极大的破坏，25%的税率是个很大的数目。应该会带来很大的不确定性。政府不应该采取行动吗？采取行动难道不是负责任的做法吗？我认为，没错，采取行动是明智的做法，至少应该努力缓解一些不确定性。什么都不做也是不对的。我不同意，你怎么看这个想法。

So the reason I disagree is that why would both sides willing to accept and endure financial, social, political pain for a couple of weeks or a month or three months when it's inevitable, a solution has to be found? Because it cannot continue indefinitely. Right. So therefore, why even go through that period with pain and suffering? And my view is there are some groups that want to do that. Well, I agree with you on that. They have just trying to see it from the other side. I'm just trying to see it from the other side because I think sometimes we get in down a rabbit hole. But like, but just to just to play sort of neutral basis here, Pierre Pauli.

我不同意的原因是，为什么双方会愿意在几周、一个月或三个月的时间里忍受经济、社会和政治上的痛苦，明知道最终还是要找到解决方案？因为这种情况不可能无限期地持续下去，对吧。所以，为什么还要经历那段痛苦和煎熬的时期呢？在我看来，有些团体就是想这样做。嗯，我在这点上和你意见一致。他们只是试图从另一个角度看问题。我只是试图从另一个角度看问题，因为我认为有时候我们会陷入思维的死胡同。不过，这里只是以中立的立场来讨论，皮埃尔·波利。

The neutral advocate, Rich is the devil's advocate. I'm the good guy advocate. Steve is neutral. So we, you know, we've so peer, Pauli have just on that side as well. He's come out and in some media interviews and says, you know, he would, his plan would be to hit back as well, assuming that the tariffs were lobbied on the US. So like, doesn't really matter what political party is running this country. They're all saying, hey, if the US hits us, we have to hit back. Of course, you know, our hope here at the loony hour is that we just actually agree to fix the border and clamp down the drugs. And you can avoid, hopefully, most of those most, if not all those tariffs. Again, we'll see how that plays out.

中立的支持者Rich是个反面意见者，而我是那个支持正义的一方。Steve是中立的。于是，我们的伙伴Pauli也加入了这个阵营。他在一些媒体采访中表示，如果美国发起关税，他的计划是进行反击。所以不论哪个政党执政，他们都说如果美国打击我们，我们也必须反击。当然，我们在“愚人时刻”节目的希望是，双方能够达成共识，解决边界问题，并打击毒品走私，这样就能避免这些关税，或者至少是大部分关税。我们拭目以待事态的发展。

But and so yeah, I know, I just hope that we don't go down the path of, you know, one for one and people start losing jobs and the helicopter, you know, the government reverts to helicopter money. I think we've been through that experiment recently. So let's hope we don't go down that path. So again, go back. Let's just say the helicopter money and other stimulus is going to be, say 50 billion. Okay, five oh, half a hundred. Okay, we have that number. Sure. And say the cost of providing a better solution to what the Americans are asking for is 10 billion, 20.

但是，所以对，我知道，我只是希望我们不要走上那种你知道的，以一换一的道路，人们开始失去工作，然后政府又回到直升机撒钱的做法。我想我们最近已经经历过这样的实验了。所以希望我们不要重蹈覆辙。那么，再回到之前的话题，我们就假设直升机撒钱和其他刺激措施的金额是500亿。好的，五百亿。我们有这个数字。好吧，然后假设为美国人要求的更好方案提供的费用是100亿或200亿。

But how about enforcing the laws that are really in the past? A billion a year. Do you see what I mean? It just from a mathematical perspective, it just doesn't make sense to do this fight. Could you do the 50 million into money, you know, in helicopter money and all that and money goes out? And then it's a month later, six weeks later, whatever the time is, and then you're still going to have to spend money on the border and security and the drug problem anyway. So why would you want to keep you away? 50 billion. So once again, just referencing my friend, and maybe we can run after this or not, I don't know, but just the point the point my friend made, and I think he has a fair one, which is sort of once you acquiesce to this kind of demand structure, then isn't it sort of a slippery slope, which is anytime the US wants anything from us, they just say, we're going to slap a terror. Well, do this. We're going to slap a terror. Do that. We're good or bad. Like this time, we might agree that the fentanyl is an issue and the borders an issue and maybe China's an issue, but maybe the next time the US threatens with a tariff, we disagree. And how do we respond in that scenario? And so I don't think it's just cut, it's not cut and dry. I think there is some nuance to this argument. Exactly. But you disagree on a good this time, this this time, okay, I see what you're sorry, I see what you're saying. Hold up like the stand up, but you know, is it is this the one?

那么，对于那些实际上已经过时的法律，应该执行吗？每年要花10亿。你明白我的意思吗？从数学角度来看，这场斗争没有意义。你能把这50亿用在直升机撒钱和其他用途上吗？钱花出去了，一个月后、六周后，不管是什么时候，你还是得在边境安全和毒品问题上花钱。那么，为什么还要坚持扣住这50亿呢？再次提到我的朋友，也许我们之后可以继续讨论这个问题，我也不太确定，但我认为他的观点是合理的：一旦你对这种要求结构妥协，那是否就变成了一种滑坡效应，即美国每次想从我们这里得到什么，就说要加征关税。做好这个，否则就加征关税，做那个。我们可能同意这次芬太尼和边境是问题，中国也可能是个问题，但也许下次美国以关税威胁我们时，我们就不同意了。那么在那种情况下我们该如何应对呢？所以我不认为这问题很简单直白，我认为这个争论中有一些细微差别。没错。虽然这次你同意这个问题，这次不反对，但我明白你所说的。等等，这就是关键所在吗？

Yeah, I can. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't know. But I think you're right. I think is this the hill you want to die on yesterday? No, and I think this is a double the dial. I agree with you. I'm just, I agree with you, but I think it's important that we sort of play with this idea just for a few minutes. And then Rich, you know, if only we didn't, it comes so reliant on one customer, for our largest export. Yeah, no shit. Did you see that interview with liberal minister, Champagne on Vassie's show? Vassie, by the way, I mean, we make fun of the mainstream media a lot on this show, but she's like, she's awesome. She is like, very completely. She puts everyone of any political stripe under the gun, asked the hard question. So she was on there. And he, you know, again, he keep in mind, he's been basically one of the main head ministers there for the last nine years. And we basically came out and was like, oh, yeah, we need to build more infrastructure projects. So we're less dependent on the US. And she's like, well, what do you mean? Where have you been for the last nine years? You go, well, the world has changed. You know, we're in the new world order. It's like, you didn't see this coming. What a scumbag. I was infuriated by that comment. It was like, yeah, that was infuriating. Like, I mean, these guys demonize the oil and gas sector for the last decade. And then he's coming out and saying, Oh, well, you know, now that it's a new world order, like we have to change our way of thinking. And he literally said, he's like, don't worry about the past. We need to think about the future. He literally said that. And it was like, I mean, good for her because she kind of roasted him on on the show. But I was like, man, this is like everything we've talked about on the lunar hour. It was like, it's just insane that like nobody, I don't know. Just like, you know, when you take your finger, and you're like, Oh, the wind is blowing this way. Pipelines bad. Oh, the wind is going the other way. Pipelines good. It's just, it's. Sorry, it is what it is.

好的，我可以理解。也许我错了，但我不确定。不过我觉得你是对的。我昨天在想，这是不是你想坚持的立场？不，我觉得这是一个需要进一步讨论的问题。我同意你的看法。只是我觉得我们有必要花几分钟来讨论这个想法。而且，Rich，如果我们没有那么依赖某个客户，作为我们最大的出口对象，那该多好啊。没错。你有没有看自由党部长Champagne在Vassie的节目上的采访？顺便说一下，我们经常在这个节目中嘲笑主流媒体，但她真的很棒。她能对任何政治立场的人进行严厉提问。她就在节目上，他，你要记住，他在过去的九年里基本上是主要的部长之一。他却说，哦，是的，我们需要建设更多基础设施项目，以减少对美国的依赖。她问他，你是什么意思？你过去九年去哪儿了？他回答说，世界已经改变了，我们处在新的世界秩序中。就像你没提前看到这一点吗？真是个混蛋。我对这个评论感到愤怒。就是这样，太让人生气了。这些人过去十年都在妖魔化石油和天然气行业，然后他又出来说，哦，现在是新的世界秩序，我们必须改变思维方式。他甚至说，别担心过去，我们需要考虑未来。他真的这么说了。对她来说是好事，因为她在节目中把他驳得哑口无言。但我觉得，这就是我们在“月时谈话”中讨论的一切，简直就是疯狂，就像没有人，就像你指着风说，哦，风往这边吹，输油管道不好；哦，风往那边吹，输油管道好。这就是现实，没办法。

But so this now, rich Keith, this puts the BOC, the Bank of Canada in a very uncomfortable position. Obviously, you know, the squirmer there. TIFF, TIFF, Mackleham, is he cut cut 25 basis points this this week, as expected. So there's no Twinkies this week. But you're Keith, did you have any commentary of watching the presser and the monetary policy report there? Oh, me, first of all, they took another victory lap on inflation. I mean, they say, Hey, inflation is now completely under control. So if you take them for the word on that, it implies that, Hey, maybe they won't have to cut anymore. They think maybe they're at that neutral level, which they can't be good. What are they now, Rich? What is their rate? 3% 3. And what inflation number are they using? 2 and a half to 1.3. Yeah. So in theory, they could still do another one. Well, no, because the range is the range is technically between one and three, right? The target is two and the range between one and three. So that's a big hockey net now.

好的，这个情况让加拿大银行（BOC）处于一个非常不舒服的境地。显然，在这个情况下，TIFF，TIFF Mackleham，如预期般本周削减了25个基点。因此，这周没有特别大的变数。但Keith，你有对发布会和货币政策报告有什么评论吗？哦，首先，他们在通胀问题上又庆祝了一番。他们表示，嘿，现在通货膨胀已经完全受控了。如果你相信他们的话，这意味着他们可能不需要再削减利率了。他们认为自己可能处于中性水平，这对他们来说是好事。他们现在的利率是多少，Rich？是3%，他们使用的通胀率是多少？是2.5%到1.3%。理论上，他们还可以再降一次。不过不行，因为范围在技术上是在1到3之间，目标是2，范围在1到3之间。所以这是一个很大的弹性空间。

So Steve, you know, they, I mean, you know, and then they talked a lot, of course, about tariffs. And they're absolutely right that it can create a whole lot of uncertainty for our economy. The Europeans said the exact same thing this morning as well with the ECB. We'll get to the Europeans. Yeah. And the Americans, the Fed said the same thing yesterday as well. And he's a and so back to the Canadians. You know, they're absolutely right saying, you know, we're not quite sure monetary policy can help fix any of the negative effects from a tariff war. So which he's then implying to Ottawa, you know, spend baby spend, you know, borrow and, you know, we will help you out. But that was it. There was a couple of other things that Rich, I remember which you pointed at you saw. There was a very funny exchange. Yeah. Yeah. We'll get to that. I just want to try them in there.

好的，史蒂夫，你知道，他们当然谈了很多关于关税的事情。他们绝对正确，这确实会给我们的经济带来很大的不确定性。欧洲人今天早上也说了同样的话，欧洲央行也是。我们会谈到欧洲人。而美国方面，美联储昨天也说了同样的事情。然后回到加拿大，他们也绝对正确地表示，我们不确定货币政策是否能解决关税战带来的负面影响。所以这就暗示了渥太华要增加开支和借款，我们会支持你们的。大概就是这样。另外还有几件事，Rich，我记得你有提到过。有一个非常有趣的对话。我们会聊到那个的，我只是想插一句。

So there was, you mentioned uncertainty. So in the Bank of Canada's monetary policy report, which they just updated, it mentions uncertainty 42 times in the report. So basically, he's like, I don't know what the hell is going to happen here. And we don't know what we're doing. So which is fair, which is fair, by the way. Yeah, it's fair. I mean, so yeah, I mean, everyone is obviously asking like, hey, tariffs coming like how much you cutting. I should ask. Well, it will happen, Steve. So if the tariff war goes like a lot of people want it, that they want to have people, I don't know why, but they want this fight. I'm the only one that doesn't want it, it seems like the BOC will have to cut rates to try to stimulate the economy. I'm curious. And then Rich, maybe you've got an opinion on this, but like,

所以你提到了不确定性。在加拿大央行刚更新的货币政策报告中，“不确定性”一词被提到42次。基本上就是说，他们也不知道将会发生什么，我们也不清楚该做些什么。当然，这种反应是可以理解的。显然，大家都在问，比如说如果出现关税问题，你们会降息多少。我应该问一下，以防万一这种关税战像很多人想要的那样展开（我不知道为什么，有人竟然想要这种局面），加拿大央行会不得不降息来刺激经济。我很好奇，Rich，也许你对此有些见解？

I mean, what are those, what are those cuts potentially look like? Is that like, hey, we're doing like emergency, 50 basis points at a time, and we're cutting from 3% today to one. I mean, yeah, I guess so. I mean, who knows? I mean, I've no idea. No, but I mean, zero. Well, I mean, it, I mean, it depends. Again, all sorry to say this like this, but it depends. And I think it's also path dependent, which is like, you know, what if they cut 25, what if they cut 50 basis points, and then a week later, the liberals limped back to Washington and say, ha, ha, just kidding, we'll fix the fence and all shit, then they won't cut all the way to zero. Do you know what I mean? Like,

我的意思是，那些削减可能会是什么样的？是不是说，我们正在紧急一次削减50个基点，从今天的3%降到1%。我的意思是，是的，我想是这样吧。谁知道呢？我也不知道。完全没有头绪。但我的意思是，这取决于情况。很抱歉要这样说，但确实取决于不少因素。我还认为这也是路径依赖的，就像，假如他们削减了25个基点或者50个基点，然后一周后，自由派回到华盛顿，说哈哈开玩笑而已，我们会解决问题，那么他们也不会一直削减到零。你明白我的意思吗？

Yeah, I know that's sort of a boring answer, but I think it's path dependent. And if they're obstinate and say, screw you, we want to spend $300, $300 billion in stimulus, maybe they'll have to go to zero in order to sort of protect the yield curve, you know what I mean? And so I think the best. When is the next BOC meeting? Well, you got me. I don't know. Drop them. March. I think it's a March magic. Oh, really? Well, by the magic of the internet. I don't know the next. It's in March, but there's an emergency cut in February. It could do. February 2nd. I'm sorry. Second. Yeah. But you know, again, you don't know what they will do. I imagine they're going to be reactive to it because you have to be because again, like this, I mean, I get tired of talking about it now, really, if you think about it, but the terror of war, it could be a matter of hours or weeks. And if the BOC, all of a sudden say on Wednesday, they do, they cut by, you know, five to zero. And then everything's resolved on Friday. Do they reverse it again? You know, it's, I don't know.

是的，我知道这有点无聊的回答，但我认为这取决于具体情况。如果他们固执地说，我们要花3000亿美元做刺激，也许他们不得不把利率降到零来保护收益率曲线。你懂我的意思吗？那么，我认为最好的办法是……你问下一次加拿大央行（BOC）会议什么时候？你问住我了，我不知道。好像是三月份。我觉得是三月的魔力。哦，真的？通过互联网的神奇力量。我不知道下次会议什么时候，是在三月，但二月可能会有紧急降息。可能是二月二日。抱歉，是二日。你知道的，再说一次，你不知道他们会怎么做。我想他们会根据情况做出反应，因为必须这样。再次提这个事情我都烦了，但战争的恐惧可能只需几小时或几周。如果加拿大央行突然在周三降息，从五降到零，然后周五一切问题都解决了，他们会反转吗？我不知道。

I think it will be the initial reaction we slow because maybe the net effect of all the, you know, the terror of everyone taxing each other and stuff, you know, maybe it's not a big deal. Yeah. And everyone's going to add, you know, of course, oh, of course, it's going to be a big deal, you know, the CBC did a report. So the Globe Mail report and said it's even better, you know, stuff like that. Yeah. And just to be clear, sorry, one more thing, just to be clear on the monetary policy report, they did models and the modeling that they did, if I remember correctly, which is like a 25% across the board for everybody and they don't take it off. So it's really difficult to model these things where you just like, it's a negotiation where and things change and it's not just all it's not just one country, it's some countries and some, you know what I mean? This is comp.

我认为最初的反应可能会比较缓慢，因为所有人之间互相征税等事情的净影响可能没那么严重。虽然大家可能会说，哦，当然这会很重要，因为像CBC这样的媒体做了报道，《环球邮报》甚至还说情况更好之类的。需要澄清的是，关于货币政策报告，他们做了一些模型分析，如果我没记错的话，他们模拟的是一种针对所有人的 25% 的增幅，并且没有撤销。这种情况的建模非常困难，因为这是一个涉及谈判的过程，情况会不断变化，而且不仅仅是一个国家涉及，而是多个国家。这是一个复杂的问题。

The thing was like, no one freaking knows, man. I believe with no tariffs, even they were still, they still had a downward revision to their growth forecast for 2025, 2026 to 1.8%. Yeah. Yeah. Just they said even just the uncertainty around the tariffs is creating obviously like a lack of investment, right? Like, how do you make investment decisions as a company or as a business today? And you're like, I don't know, I don't know what's going to happen in, you know, a week from now, a month from now. So I think just all the uncertainty, I mean, we just did a full hour long podcast talking about a whole bunch of what ifs. So again, imagine as a business trying to deploy tens of millions, hundreds of millions of dollars and you don't know. I tell you one thing that will happen. I hope it doesn't. So, you know, 25% tariffs come on Monday morning, whatever it is. Canadians respond with 25.

那个情况就像是，没人真正知道怎么回事，伙计。我认为即使没有关税，他们还是将2025年和2026年的增长预测向下修正到了1.8%。是的，就是说即使只是关税方面的不确定性，显然已经导致了投资的缺乏，对吧？作为一家公司或企业，你怎么做投资决策呢？当你都不知道一周后或者一个月后会发生什么事情。所以，我觉得所有这些不确定性，我们刚刚做了一个一个小时的播客，讨论了很多“如果怎么样”的情况。再想象一下，作为一家企业，要投放几千万、上亿美元，但你却不知道结果。我告诉你件可能会发生的事情，但我希望不会发生。比如说，周一早上实施25%的关税，不管怎么样，加拿大人可能也会以25%回应。

President Trump's going to go, what? The Canadians matched it. You go make it 50. You need to be prepared for that kind of reaction. And then all of a sudden Canadians were saying, well, we were already in it now. We're already all in. Now there's another 50. So it's actually not bad. Because I think then the whole thing could be resolved within a few days. If the Canadians are going to fight back aggressively, they better be prepared, not just a little, you know, push them, push the bully when he can't see you and stuff. They're going to have to go aggressively. And are they prepared to do it? The politicians, they are prepared. Do you know why? They don't get hurt. Yeah. Rich, you're going to get hurt. Steve, you're going to get hurt. They have no skin in the game. Absolutely. This is where this is. In fact, I would argue, you could argue, you can make the case that actually they come off better. Because they're seen as fighting for Canada, patriotism, Trump is bad, Canada good. So it's a dangerous game, actually. They're incentivized to sort of take this to the end in a weird scooter. So what's the other sense of things? What's the other sense of things to in Keith? We got the Fed. Right? You had the Fed that came out the same day as the BOC. They did not cut rates. So the BOC is still going in one direction and the Fed is going in another. And he take away there from Jay Powell, the Fed. Yeah. They try to remember a few episodes back. Steve, you were talking about the hawkish pause or the dovish pause. Which one was it that you came up with? I don't remember. Hawkish pause. I don't remember. It was cool. It was a cool expression. I think yesterday, the Fed tried to do a dovish pause. So obviously they paused. And then in the presser, you know, they're again, he always does it. He tries to walk the fine line to appease everyone because there's lots of moving parts in the US financial system, which just doesn't exist here in Canada. But you know, for everything that's taking place, it looks like the Fed has probably ended. The rate cutting cycle for now, or they paused it, I should say. And don't forget, there's politics in everything. So, you know, the Fed and, you know, it's not fair to say it. You know, there's supposed to be objective, but they are clearly going to try to go against the policy that have come out of Washington now. And which direction does the Washington want the rates to go? I don't know. Very much down. Trump is a real right, man. So you want the lower rates? Absolutely. He's been very vocal about that about. But inflation's high. Yeah. So what's the Fed going to try to do? Go higher. You really think so? You really think it's that obvious? It's right in front of you. Open your eyes. It's there. That's not too naive. It's Powell, Democrat. No, he's not actually. But anyway.

特朗普总统准备出手，怎么回事？加拿大人跟进了。他们就会把目标提高到50。你需要为这种反应做好准备。然后突然之间，加拿大人说，好吧，我们已经全力以赴了。现在又有50，所以实际上这并不算坏。因为我认为这样的话，整个问题可能在几天内得到解决。如果加拿大人要激烈反击，他们就要做好准备，不能仅仅是偷偷摸摸反击。他们必须强硬地应对。政治家们，他们已经准备好了。你知道为什么吗？因为他们不会受到伤害。对，富人会受伤，Steve会受伤。他们没有切身利益。事实上，你可以说，他们可能表现得更好。因为他们被认为是在为加拿大而战，爱国主义，特朗普是坏的，加拿大是好的。所以这实际上是一个危险的游戏，他们被激励着以一种怪异的方式走到最后。那么还有其他的看法吗？ 我们有美联储的动向，对吗？你知道，在同一天，加拿大银行（BOC）和美联储都有动作。他们没有降息。所以加银行在走一个方向，而美联储走另一个方向。Jay Powell，美联储主席的一个信息是什么呢？你记得几集前吗？Steve，你在讨论鹰派暂停还是鸽派暂停。你想到了哪一个？我不记得了。鹰派暂停。我不记得了。那是一个很酷的表述。我想昨天，美联储尝试了一个鸽派暂停。所以很明显他们暂停了。在新闻发布会上，他又试着保持中立，因为美国金融系统有很多变动，而这些在加拿大是不存在的。但从所有发生的事情来看，美联储可能已经结束了这轮的降息周期，或者我应该说，他们暂停了。别忘了，政治在所有事情中都有影响。美联储本应该是客观的，但他们明显会反对现在出自华盛顿的政策。华盛顿想要利率往哪个方向走？我不知道，非常明显地向下降。特朗普是个实际的人，他一直很明确地希望降低利率，但现在通胀很高。那么美联储会怎么做？提高利率。你真的这么认为？真的这么明显？就在你面前。睁开眼睛，就在那里。别那么天真。Powell是民主党人吗？其实不是。但无论如何。

Anyway, but we have this risk that now the diversions in central bank rates between the US and everyone else, it could get bigger and bigger. So I mean, did you hear anything that stood out from the Americans yesterday, Steve, or Rich? I mean, I don't know, Rich, if you want to try, man. I mean, my only thought process here is, again, another cut from the BOC and nothing from the Fed that, you know, what's the outlook for the Canadian dollar? I mean, I'm just still struggling to see a bull case there. But that's how I feel. I think that that's, I think we're going to have a continued divergence full stop. In fact, the only country, well, the only, sorry to say, the only real country that has the interest states that are higher than the US is the UK, but they're having, they're dealing with their own thing. They need high real interest rates to absorb capital, etc, etc. So that's a different thing.

好的，现在美联储的利率和其他国家之间的差距可能会越来越大，这确实是一个风险。不知道你们昨天有没有听到美国方面有什么特别的信息，Steve 或者 Rich？我不太清楚，Rich，如果你想试试回答。我这里唯一的想法就是，加拿大央行再次降息，而美联储什么都没做，那加元的前景会怎样呢？我还是难以看出看涨的理由。不过，我感觉利率差距会持续扩大。实际上，唯一一个利率比美国高的主要国家是英国，但他们有自己的问题，他们需要高的实际利率来吸引资本等等，这又是另一回事。

But I also thought it was interesting that the, I don't know if we're going to talk about the Japanese, the BOC raised rates again. I don't know, but no, I have nothing else on the Fed. I think I'm more naive than Keith. I think that they're still independent. And I think inflation is still really high. And I think deficit spending is high. And the economy's doing relatively okay. No, so I know it's interesting, right? Like this is play like a hypothetical scenario. Let's just say we get some version, some form of tariff probably impacts Canada more than the US. Of course it does.

但我也觉得有趣的是，不知道我们会不会讨论日本的情况，加拿大央行又加息了。我不太清楚，不过关于美联储，我没有其他看法。我觉得自己比基斯更天真，我认为他们仍然是独立的。而且我觉得通货膨胀仍然很高，赤字开支也很高，经济表现相对还不错。对吧，这很有趣，就像这是一个假设场景。假设我们有某种形式的关税，这可能对加拿大的影响比对美国更大。当然是这样的。

So the BOC is pre-emptively forced into cutting rates to some extent. Canadian dollars currently at 69 cents. I mean, I don't know, what does that send the Canadian dollar? I think you can see South of 65. But I think the, I think Cat truthfully has upside risk from here. Because you have to, yeah, could you have to make the assumption that this tariff war is going to be a very short tariff war. And the moment it is resolved, it should be, you know, very positive for the Canadian dollar.

因此，加拿大央行（BOC）不得不提前采取一定幅度的降息措施。当前，加元汇率为69美分。我不知道这会对加元造成什么影响，但我认为它可能会跌到65美分以下。不过，从长远来看，加元实际上存在上升的潜在机会。因为你要假设，这次关税战可能会很短暂。一旦解决，这应该对加元非常有利。

So where are we now 69 and a half cents, maybe something like that 69 for you. Yeah, 72 73 75. I think it could have something like that. And then, you know, you wake up and do this with your glasses. And then it should then resume it's decline. Well, like you're back to interest rate policy and the economy and everything. Question for you, which is it just doesn't trump not. I mean, he does want a weaker US dollar. Does he not? I mean, he doesn't think he's as forceful this time about that. I mean, he can't make the US the best place to invest in the world and not have some realization that everybody's going to want to plow their money into the US dollars. Right? I mean, is he?

那么，我们现在在哪里？69.5美分，可能就是这样，69给你。是的，72、73、75。我认为可能会是这样的情况。然后，你知道的，你醒过来，戴上眼镜，应该会继续下跌。嗯，这就回到了利率政策、经济以及所有事情的问题。问你一个问题，这与特朗普无关吗？我的意思是，他确实希望美元走弱，不是吗？我的意思是，这次他似乎没有那么强烈地表达这点。我是说，他不可能让美国成为世界上最好的投资地，而不意识到所有人都会想要把钱投入美元，对吧？我是这个意思吗？

Yeah, I mean, he's the guy has this his commerce secretary, this be Samantha guy, this be's a member is me a sense. He is a very, very switched on gentleman. He used to understand Stanley Druckenmiller. Right. That guy is a very, very smart macro thinker. And Rich is right. If you want to attract foreign investment to your country, you know, by default, your currency is going to appreciate because you have foreign money. Yeah. Well, yeah, he's kind of you're only ready to you got to buy USD to, you know, to make that investment wants his cake to eat and he wants to eat it too, obviously. Yeah, yeah, it's it's it is there.

是的，我的意思是，他是那个让这位商贸部长成为他的人的家伙，这位叫萨曼莎的人。就我的理解，他是一个非常非常聪明的人。他曾经了解过斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒，对吧。那个人是一个非常聪明的宏观思考者。而里奇也是对的。如果你想吸引外国投资进入你的国家，自然而然，你的货币会升值，因为有外国资金流入。是的，那么，是的，他有点意思，你得买美元进行投资，他想两全其美。是的，就是这样。

And then we had the Europeans this morning, but it was snooze fest in Europe. What did they do? This is a funny statement. They cut to, you know, yeah, only the Europeans could make a monetary policy announcement boring. What they're all boring. That's the boomer joke for the episode. Oh boy. Yeah, I walked right into that.

今天早上我们有欧洲那边的会议，但那真是个无聊的活动。 他们做了什么呢？这段话有些幽默。他们发布了一个货币政策公告，结果真是无聊到极点。只有欧洲人能把这样的公告弄得这么无趣。这是这集中的“老派”笑话。哦，天哪，我完全没想到会变成这样。

Yeah, yeah, but what was very interesting though, and very loud and clear, they cut, they are still trending to cut even more. Some estimates are for a minimum of another 75 basis points to be cut. And some houses are even expecting a hundred. And the reason for that is Rich. Germany, Germany is F'd.

是的，是的，不过非常有趣且非常明确的是，他们削减的力度很大，甚至还会进一步削减。一些预估显示至少会再削减75个基点。一些机构甚至预期会削减100个基点。原因是因为德国的经济状况非常糟糕。

Yeah, we've just got another negative GDP print for Q4 or Q. That's good that up for Q. I should have had the Q4. That's right. Which was I, which was you five. Which is a linear math again. So it was a negative point to you. So that's an annualized rate of 0.8, although it's a bit unfair to do that. But anyways, it was worse than expected. And what's crazy? How sorry, how many consecutive quarters of that's the, I was looking at the chart right now, which is that's the bit of the joke. They actually have not had two consecutive negative quarters.

是的，我们刚刚得到了第四季度的另一份负增长国内生产总值（GDP）数据。这对第四季度来说是个好消息。我应该已经提到第四季度的数据。没错，之前的数据是我（或我们），或者是你五。再次进行线性计算，所以结果为负0.2%。即使按年化率计算是负0.8%，虽然这样计算有点不公平。但无论如何，这比预期更糟糕。令人惊讶的是，我刚才看了图表，他们实际上还没有经历过连续两个季度的负增长。

However, GDP peaked in Q2, Q3 of 2022 and has basically been declining. Sort of, you know, like a zigzag all the way down. Bounce in a round lower. So you've had, yeah, I mean, this is crazy. You're, you're, Germany is, it's not run properly. They've made some. They did. Yeah. I mean, they did it to themselves. They did this to themselves. And China, let's be clear. China had a helping hand. But anyways, it's just, yeah. I mean, for everyone knows, I mean, the energy costs have gone up, but yet they're, you know, they're manufacturing high industrial product export industry. I try to use fancy words, but that is being hollowed out by China, you know, increasingly more and more.

然而，GDP在2022年的第二季度和第三季度达到了顶峰，此后基本上一直在下降。有点像是不断起伏的锯齿形下降。这种局面，让人觉得不可思议。德国的治理有些问题，他们做出了一些决策，也可以说是自作自受。当然，中国在这个过程中也扮演了某种帮助角色。众所周知，能源成本上涨，但德国仍在坚持制造高端工业产品以供出口。然而，这个行业正在逐步被中国侵蚀。

Yeah, we've talked about obviously Volkswagen being like a key indicator over there and the problems that they're having. But it's not just that's BAF, BAF, that the elevator manufacturer, that manufacturers more than just elevator crop, crop, tungsten crop. Yeah. Yeah. Camera. Crop. Anyways, it's just, sorry, Steve, I didn't mean to cut you off. I was just, it's a, it's a, it's a wide ranging thing. And it's going to continue, which is key's point about the ECB. They're going to have to deal with their biggest economy continuing to go down. Incidentally, Spain is smashing it and the whole southern part of Italy, sorry, the other southern part of Europe is actually doing relatively well, which is kind of funny.

好的，我们之前讨论过大众汽车在那边作为一个重要指标，以及他们遇到的问题。但不仅仅是这样，还有个电梯制造商，BAF，它不只生产电梯，还涉及到更多领域，比如钨矿。哦，还有相机制造。不过，抱歉，Steve，我不是故意打断你。其实，这是个涉及范围很广的问题，而且会持续下去，这也正是关于欧洲央行的关键点——他们得面对他们最大的经济体持续下滑的情况。同时，西班牙的表现非常出色，整个南欧的其他部分，特别是意大利南部，表现也相对较好，这有点有趣。

So the, the other interesting thing is that the Germans have their election coming up. Yeah. And that 23rd. Yep. Second. Something like that. Yeah. Something like that, whatever it's going to be. And that is right now, that is ground zero in this whole battle, you know, between the globalists versus the other side, wherever you want to call them. And it's going to be enormous. Like this, everyone is geared up. What did you call the globalist versus the nationalist?

所以，另一件有趣的事情是，德国人的选举快到了。对，23号。嗯，第二。不过差不多是那个时候吧，无论具体是哪天。目前来说，那就是这场全球主义者与其他任何你想称呼的一方之间的整个战斗的中心。这将是一场巨大的对决，每个人都在积极准备。你称之为全球主义者对抗民族主义者吗？

I think that's a good way, Steve. Yeah. That's a good way to put it. Absolutely. Which I mean, again, we've talked about the show, but I mean, it's seeming like every country is becoming more nationalistic in the views. Yeah. That's the way the pendulum has swung. And again, it's not right or wrong. It is what it is. And as that's happening, I think it just, it just creates even more visibility over the global economy is going.

我觉得那是个好办法，史蒂夫。是的，这样说很合适。完全同意。我们的确之前谈论过这个节目，但我想说的是，看起来每个国家的观点都越来越趋向民族主义。是的，这是摆动的方向。而这并不是对或错的问题，而是事情的现状。而随着这种趋势的发展，我认为这让全球经济的走向变得更加显而易见。

And that means one of slower growth. So when countries are more focused on their own domestic activities, by default, it usually results in less trade for whatever reason it's going to happen. So you have that happening and there are going to be some pretty significant knock on effects from that. But right now, ground zero is Germany in a few weeks. And then Canada will also become the next ground zero, whether it's in May or next October, we will see. It's looking like it is going to be October right now.

这意味着增长速度会更慢。当各国更加专注于国内活动时，通常会导致贸易减少，无论原因是什么。这种情况正在发生，并且会产生一些相当重要的连锁效应。但现在，首先受到影响的国家是德国，几周后。接下来，加拿大也会成为关注的焦点，无论是五月还是十月，目前看来更加可能是在十月。

That's a big that's a bold prediction. That's a bold prediction. Like this guy's the all this guy's the king of the tin foil hat. I don't think tin foil hat is funny is tin foil hat today, but then it comes true. And it's like, Oh, yeah, that was I've been all over Kearney becoming the leader now for a while. And it's increasingly looking like that is right. And I know Rich is done a lot of work now on Kearney's background that he's sharing with everyone this week is well. So we have that coming up.

这是一个大胆的预测。这个家伙就像戴着锡纸帽子的国王，我不觉得锡纸帽子今天很好笑，但后来事情真的发生了，就像是，哦，对，这就是我一直关注的......卡尼现在成为领导者，看起来这预测越来越正确了。我知道里奇最近做了很多关于卡尼背景的研究，这周他会和大家分享。所以，我们即将看到这些内容。

You know, I didn't know this, but it has happened before, by the way. So I was like outraged that an yeah person could be before, right? Yeah. So I didn't know this and I obviously the internet exists. So I just googled it. Imagine that. And I found out there's someone named John Turner, the right honorable John Turner was the PM, a supremacist of Canada for a little while, even though he was not a MP, but then he ran in a by election one. And then, but then how many years ago is that that was 1984? I only know that because I looked it up like an hour ago.

你知道吗，我之前不知道这件事，但顺便说一下，这种情况以前发生过。所以当时我对一个人这样做感到非常震惊。是的，我并不知道这件事，显然互联网是存在的，所以我就查了一下。你能想象吗？于是我发现有个叫约翰·特纳的人，加拿大的尊敬的前总理，虽然当时他不是国会议员，但后来他在一个补选中获胜。那是什么时候的事呢？那是1984年。我知道这些是因为我大约一小时前查的。

How long is he actually in power for? Oh, very little. He was not required to call an election until 1985, but then ended up calling and it was quick. It was like, it was but it was months. It was months. Like I can't remember the exact time. So I deleted that page off my thing. But it was like, you know, like how crazy the world has become. And I got expression, the right honorable. Right now there is a petition or something floating around Ottawa that changed it to the left honorable.

他实际掌权了多长时间？哦，非常短。他本可以直到1985年才需要举行选举，但他提前宣布了选举，而且很快进行。差不多是几个月的时间。我不记得确切的时间，所以我把那页从我的资料中删掉了。但就像世界变得多么疯狂一样。我记得一个称谓，“尊敬的阁下”。现在在渥太华有请愿或类似的活动，要求把它改成“左尊敬的阁下”。

Come on. That can't be as much. I can't be like, I can't be like that. Well, yeah, I'm so dumb. I think that's a good, good spot to wrap it up. I mean, yeah, I don't know if this is the episode of uncertainty, but Tara. I'm sorry. February 1st. We'll see. You know, again, we'll see when this podcast is aired out tomorrow. If this is still relevant, because we'll find out.

来吧。这不能这么多。我不可能那样。嗯，是的，我真傻。我觉得这是个不错的收尾。我是说，我不知道这是不是充满不确定的一集，但Tara，我很抱歉。2月1号。我们会看看。你知道的，明天播客播出的时候，我们会看看这是否仍然相关，因为我们会搞清楚的。

Can we do the time? The time change? No, I think we have to go far so good. I feel good. All right, guys. Well, as always, we appreciate the support. Again, all we ask is that to share this episode of one friend, one family member, and continue to build the Looney Hour community, Looney Hour audience. And we'll see you next week.

可以改变时间吗？时间调整？不，我觉得我们已经做得不错了。我感觉很好。好的，大家。像往常一样，我们非常感谢你们的支持。我们唯一的请求就是，把这一集分享给一个朋友或家人，继续壮大我们的Looney Hour社区和观众群。下周再见！