Tesla: The Great Bifurcation - There's Still Time ⚡️

Last night, it became more clear to me than ever, why there are so many varying opinions about Tesla, the stock valuation, and its future impact on society. As a result of this mini epiphany, well, well, maybe more of a strong reminder, today's video will be a bit different than a typical quarterly recap. Watching the world react to Tesla's earnings has me in a place where I feel the need to say some things and share some perspectives and I think in the end that will be more helpful than nerding out about market gains for Bitcoin and how that's benefited Tesla in quarter four.

昨晚，我比以往任何时候都更清楚地明白，为什么人们对特斯拉、其股票估值及其对社会未来影响有如此多不同的看法。经过这次小顿悟，或者说更像是一种强烈的提醒，今天的视频会与普通的季度回顾有所不同。观察世界对特斯拉财报的反应让我觉得有必要表达一些看法，并分享一些观点，我认为这最终会比详细分析比特币的市场收益以及它如何在第四季度让特斯拉受益更有帮助。

Although sure, in time we can certainly explain the mechanics of stuff like that, and listen, let me be clear, it's not that these things don't matter, because for the next 6-12 months, they most certainly do when it comes to the stock. The problem I'm seeing is the volume of people that can't seem to detach from certain things and as a result, many people are disillusioned with Tesla and it really doesn't need to be this way. Everyone just needs to understand the great Tesla buy for cash and once you can really grasp this and the incentives behind each group, the commentary about Tesla and narratives you see will make a lot more sense. And hopefully, each side can understand the other a bit better with the most important result being a better understanding of Tesla and its future.

尽管我们当然可以在将来解释这类事情的机制，不过请让我澄清，这些事情并不是不重要，因为在接下来的6到12个月里，它们在股票方面绝对重要。我看到的问题是，很多人似乎无法从某些事情中抽离，导致他们对特斯拉感到失望，其实完全不必如此。大家只需要理解以现金购买特斯拉股票的价值，一旦你真的掌握了这一点以及每个群体背后的动机，你对特斯拉的评论和各种说法就会更有意义。希望各方能够更好地理解彼此，最重要的是更好地理解特斯拉及其未来。

Now more than ever, Tesla observers are being split into two groups, we'll call one group now and one group future. The now group does have all of these factual points on their side, Tesla stock price was higher back on November 1st, 2021 than it is today. So over the past 3 years, the stock has been negative. Tesla's auto gross margin X credit number in quarter four was the lowest it's been in about 7 years. In quarter four, Tesla's operating income was down 24% year over year.

如今，比以往任何时候，特斯拉的观察者被分成两个群体，我们称之为“当下派”和“未来派”。“当下派”有一些事实依据支持他们的观点：特斯拉的股价在2021年11月1日时比现在要高。也就是说，过去三年里，特斯拉的股价表现是负面的。在第四季度，特斯拉扣除信贷后的汽车毛利率是约七年来的最低点。此外，特斯拉的营业收入在第四季度同比下降了24%。

Not only that, but Tesla's operating income was higher in quarter three of 2021 than it was in Q4 last year. Tesla's average selling price has been steadily coming down thanks to the need for sales incentives around the world to keep moving metal and yet all of those efforts still resulted in negative year over year sales growth for 2024. There are still big question marks for Tesla's delivery growth in 2025, especially if the tax credits are removed and Tesla did not reiterate that 20-30% delivery growth for this year, which some can interpret as a backing off of that figure. We do have to consider Tesla is doing something unprecedented, changing over four factories globally at the same time to the new Model Y and the last year to change over to the new Model 3 at fewer factories was slower than expected at Fremont.

不仅如此，特斯拉在2021年第三季度的运营收入比去年第四季度更高。由于全球需要销售激励措施来促进汽车销售，特斯拉的平均销售价格一直在稳步下降，但即便如此，2024年的销售增长仍出现负增长。对于2025年的交付增长，特斯拉仍然面临很多不确定性，特别是在税收优惠可能被取消的情况下。特斯拉没有重申今年交付增长20-30%的目标，这可能被解读为对这个数字的退缩。我们还要考虑到，特斯拉正在做一些前所未有的事情，即同时在全球四家工厂切换到新的Model Y车型，而去年在较少的工厂切换到新Model 3的过程在弗里蒙特的确比预期慢。

Vibov said on the call the change over will result in several last weeks of production in quarter one and as a result margins will be impacted. There's plenty of uncertainty about tariffs and those would hurt Tesla's cost structure even though Tesla's done a great job of localizing production over the years. Despite that, there's still very reliant on parts around the world for all of its businesses. And yes, we all know Elon's been wrong about the Robotaxi timeline for many years, so this now group doesn't really care what Elon says about Robotaxi timelines and listen, to some degree, I get it.

Vibov在电话中表示，这次转换将导致第一季度的最后几周生产受到影响，因此利润率也会受到影响。目前对于关税有很多不确定性，这些因素会影响特斯拉的成本结构，尽管特斯拉多年来在本地化生产方面做得很好。尽管如此，他们还是非常依赖全球的零部件。是的，我们都知道Elon关于机器人出租车时间表多年来都预测错误，所以现在这个群体并不太在意Elon关于机器人出租车时间表的说法，而且在某种程度上，我也能理解这种态度。

So I think you get the picture, there are certainly metrics and financials and data points that this now group is correct about Tesla has been underperforming on these key metrics for a few years. One more example, Tesla's gap net income was higher in quarter four of 2021 than it was in quarter four of 2024. So for a growth company with over a trillion dollar valuation, if you want or need Tesla stock to perform now, you're going to be upset and it's easy to point fingers at Elon and politics and all of that. We live in a what have you done for me lately world and by these metrics Tesla really hasn't done much for a few years, so the number of people in this now camp when it comes to Tesla is continuing to grow. And I'll come back to this now group in a moment, but I just think it's important for everyone, no matter what group you fall in, to understand these points and understand why certain narratives exist.

所以我想你明白我的意思了，这个“现在派”群体确实对一些关于特斯拉的指标、财务数据有正确观点，这些年来特斯拉在这些关键指标上的表现不佳。再举个例子，特斯拉在2021年第四季度的净收入要高于2024年第四季度。对于一家估值超过一万亿美元的成长型公司来说，如果你希望或需要特斯拉的股票现在就表现出色，你可能会感到失望，也很容易将原因归咎于埃隆·马斯克或者政治等因素。我们生活在一个讲究“你最近为我做了些什么”的世界，从这些指标来看，特斯拉在过去几年里确实没做出什么突出表现，因此加入“现在派”群体的人数还在增加。我稍后会再谈到这个“现在派”群体，但我认为无论你属于哪个群体，都很重要的是理解这些点并理解某些叙述存在的原因。

Because it is indeed these very metrics, margins, profitability, growth, etc. paired with a six to 12 month outlook on those metrics, that really does drive the stock price in the short term second to only macro economics. And we'll call the second group future. This is where Elon lives. Hence the thumbnail of this video, which was referring to when Elon was bringing himself back to earth, which I thought was hilarious. But it also gave us an excellent insight into where his head is at when he thinks about Tesla. And my prediction long term is the optimist will be overwhelmingly the value of the company. We're counting energy back to us. The vision that Elon sees so clearly now more than ever is quite special, but there will be even more waiting ahead to get to this future. Now this group will call future understands that all of the financials and metrics right now really don't matter for the long term vision, not that they don't matter. But for 2026 and beyond, they just become so trivial.

因为确实是这些指标，比如利润率、盈利能力、增长等，以及未来6到12个月对这些指标的展望，真正推动了短期股票价格，仅次于宏观经济因素。我们将把第二组称为“未来”。这是埃隆所在的领域，因此这个视频的缩略图提到的就是埃隆让自己回到现实的时候，我觉得非常有趣。但这也为我们提供了一个极好的视角，了解他在考虑特斯拉时的思维方式。我的长期预测是，乐观主义者将极大地成为公司价值所在。我们正在重新审视能源。埃隆现在比以往任何时候都更清晰地看到的愿景非常特别，但为了实现这个未来，还需要更多的等待。本组称为“未来”的人明白，目前的所有财务数据和指标对于长期愿景来说实际上并不重要，并不是说它们不重要，但到2026年及以后，这些细节就显得微不足道了。

As I was filling out my quarterly numbers spreadsheet with Tesla's data, I could just not get away from the thought that this is all just noise for those in the future group. When you envision unsupervised FSD in many cities by later this year and optimists doing useful work in the thousands by later this year or early next year, dwelling on auto gross margins, ex credits really does feel foolish. Everybody here knows the arguments for the future camp. The upside of Tesla over the next decade is so big that to put it into words or figures doesn't make sense and just leaves you sounding like a fanboy. Elon does see a path to Tesla being the most valuable company in the world by far with a greater valuation than the next top 5 companies combined, which by today's numbers is nearly $15 trillion. The driver of this number though is autonomous vehicles and autonomous robots. It is absolutely not Tesla achieving 20% auto gross margins, ex credits or even growing auto sales at 20, 30, 40% a year. That's just never going to move the needle to those type of numbers.

当我在填写特斯拉的季度数据表时，我不禁想到，对于未来的那些人来说，这一切都只是噪音。当你设想今年晚些时候许多城市将实现无人监管的完全自动驾驶（FSD），并且乐观人士在今年晚些时候或明年初能完成有意义的工作时，纠结于扣除补贴后的汽车毛利确实显得很愚蠢。这里的每个人都知道未来阵营的论点。在未来的十年里，特斯拉的潜在增长空间如此之大，以至于用语言或数据来描述都显得不合适，并且只会让你听起来像个脑残粉。马斯克确实认为有一条路，能让特斯拉成为世界上最有价值的公司，远远超过排名前五的公司总和，根据现在的数据，这几乎是15万亿美元。然而，这个数字背后的驱动力是自动驾驶汽车和自动化机器人，而不是特斯拉实现20%的汽车毛利率（扣除补贴）或者每年20%、30%、40%的汽车销量增长。这些都不足以推动达到那种规模的价值。

But as I lay out some of my biggest takeaways from yesterday, you should be able to see why so many people are agreeing to look past the current financials into the future that is now closer than ever. A few of the new things we learned, Tesla claims to be battery constrained specifically for battery packs and battery production. They're in talks now about how to increase the total gigawatt hours of battery production. Apparently that's the constraint on output for auto and energy. But Tesla said the 4680 lines hit a rate exceeding 2,500 Cybertruck packs per week, which is about 125,000 packs per year well ahead of the current production rate for the Cybertruck, so 4680s are not the limiting factor but batteries from suppliers is. Which I'll be honest to me is a bit odd because other automakers have been pulling back on EV battery packs and the narrative was about excess cell supply from China nearly all of last year.

昨天我总结了一些主要的收获，你应该能明白为什么这么多人愿意忽视当前的财务状况，而关注比以往更接近的未来。我们了解到的一些新情况是，特斯拉声称目前在电池组和电池生产方面受到限制。他们正在谈论如何增加电池生产的总千兆瓦时。显然，这是汽车和能源产量的限制因素。不过，特斯拉表示，4680电池生产线的产能已达到每周超过2,500个Cybertruck电池组，一年大约125,000个电池组，远远超出了Cybertruck目前的生产速度，所以限制因素并不是4680电池，而是来自供应商的电池。说实话，这让我觉得有点奇怪，因为其他汽车制造商一直在减少电动汽车电池组的生产，而去年几乎一整年的说法都是中国的电池供应过剩。

Of course Tesla needs specific cells but there were times when battery factories were running at 40% of capacity last year and electrode manufacturing capacity was nearly an order of magnitude greater than the global EV cell demand at the time. So I would have loved to hear more about how and why Tesla is battery constrained but of course no analyst thought to get more information about this. Nothing about the severity of the constraint but Elon did say they'll get it sorted out and for now that's really all we have. The big news was of course for the first time we got a specific month for Unsupervised FSD which is June for paid rides in Austin but it'll only be for Tesla's fleet no customer deployments yet. Next year should be the year for the Airbnb situation for customer cars joining the network according to Elon. But it's not just Austin. The plan is to launch Unsupervised in California later this year and likely in many regions of the US by the end of this year. Further probably everywhere in North America next year the constraint next year is likely to be regulatory and hopefully by then the Trump friendship pays some dividends and there's federal regulation for robot axes alleviating that constraint.

当然，特斯拉需要特定的电池，但去年有时候电池厂的产能利用率只有40%，而电极制造的产能几乎比当时全球电动车电池的需求大一个数量级。所以我本希望能听到更多关于特斯拉为什么受电池限制的信息，但自然没有分析师想到要深入了解这个问题。对于这种限制的严重程度没有更多信息，不过埃隆确实表示他们会解决这个问题，目前我们能掌握的信息也只有这些。大新闻当然是我们首次得知无人驾驶完全自动驾驶（FSD）的具体推出时间是在6月，将在奥斯汀提供付费乘车服务，不过仅限特斯拉自有车队，尚未向客户开放。根据埃隆的说法，明年应该是客户车辆加入网络的“共享经济”（类似Airbnb）模式实现的一年。但不仅限于奥斯汀，计划是在今年晚些时候在加州推出无人驾驶FSD，并有可能在今年年底前在美国的许多地区推出。进一步看，很可能明年在整个北美地区推出。明年这个计划的限制因素可能是监管方面，希望到那时特朗普的友好关系能带来一些益处，并出台联邦法规来缓解这一限制。

To start Tesla will go slow to make sure everything is safe and works well and there is significant interest from a number of major car companies to license FSD but Tesla's only entertaining it where the volume is very high. Clearly Tesla's focus is to get Unsupervised working across the US first before worrying too much about licensing. Elon did go on a mini rant about regulations in the EU and challenges in China with FSD so I'm even more confident now in what I said last week that we should all temper our expectations for FSD around the world. The EU committee meets in May but there's nothing Tesla can do to expedite that. Elon at one point guess that maybe May next year is when supervised FSD would be allowed in the EU. So then when is Unsupervised FSD allowed in Europe I'm like May next year maybe? I don't know well better to find out when the EU is meeting again. Clearly that was just a guess but what I'm getting at here is I think quarter one of this year is looking very doubtful.

特斯拉计划首先缓慢推进，以确保所有操作都安全并运行良好。目前，许多大型汽车公司对特斯拉的自动驾驶技术（FSD）有很大兴趣，但特斯拉只会在对方需求量非常大的情况下考虑授权。显然，特斯拉的重点是先在美国实现无人监管驾驶，然后再考虑过多关于授权的问题。埃隆·马斯克对欧盟的法规和中国的挑战发表了一些看法，这让我更加相信我们应该降低对全球FSD发展的期望。欧盟委员会将在五月召开会议，但特斯拉对此无能为力。马斯克曾猜测，也许明年五月欧盟将允许监督下的FSD使用。那么，无监督的FSD何时能在欧洲使用呢？可能是明年五月？我不确定，最好看看欧盟下一次开会的时间。显然，这只是一个猜测，但我认为，今年第一季度实现这一目标的可能性很小。

On the China challenges China won't allow Tesla to transfer training video outside of China again exactly what we talked about last week but we learned that the US government won't let Tesla train in China. So in the event China says you need to do all of your training here which is what they're saying now something may need to change with US restrictions to allow that to happen and Tesla would then need to build out separate infrastructure in China. It is pretty cool that Tesla can make progress now with video of streets on the internet fed into Tesla's training and simulations for bus lanes in China which is their biggest challenge for that market and Elon concluded saying hopefully Unsupervised is in most countries by the end of next year. Here's the thing some people are now concerned that other companies could just pull online videos and buy some compute and then really narrow Tesla's data gap after the comments about what Tesla's doing in simulation. But a few weeks back we talked about the limitations of this simulation data so this is not some sort of shortcut to eliminating the need for real world data it's just like a bandaid temporary measure to keep the progress moving until the regulatory situation becomes more clear. We should be expecting Tesla's capex to increase the next few years as they called out in the 10k. The training needs for optimists will be 10x what's needed for the vehicles to get to the full range of useful roles for optimists. So far cumulatively Tesla has spent about $5 billion on AI capex so over the next five to ten years Tesla may see that figure increase to $50 billion and beyond. And of course it's fun to think about optimist revenue being north of $10 trillion at some point like Elon said but there's a long way to go to get there. Elon did say 10,000 optimist robots built this year is the internal plan but they're likely only going to hit several thousand realistically. The production design one which is what they'll make later this year will inform what they change for production design two which should go into production toward the middle of next year. Optimists is not yet design locked and the pilot production starting this year will be for internal use at Tesla. They can use several thousand for boring jobs at the factories. It sounds like the optimist ramp could get pretty nutty as they're aiming to see an order of magnitude ramp every year aspirationally which would mean this pilot line that should launch later this year of version one of optimists would start off with one line making about 1000 optimists per month and then version two which hopefully comes toward the middle of next year would be around 10,000 units per month. And then after that the next line would be for 100,000 units per month and so on. Elon said this version two of optimists that should start toward the middle of next year those deliveries to external customers may begin in the second half of 2026.

关于中国的挑战，中国不允许特斯拉将训练视频转移到境外，正如我们上周讨论的那样，但我们了解到，美国政府不允许特斯拉在中国进行训练。因此，如果中国要求必须在国内完成所有训练（这是他们现在的立场），那么美国的限制可能需要做出改变以允许这种情况发生，特斯拉也可能需要在中国建立单独的基础设施。值得注意的是，特斯拉现在可以通过在互联网上收集的街道视频并将其用于特斯拉的训练和模拟，为中国市场面临的最大挑战——公交专用车道带来进展。埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）表示，希望到明年年底，无监督学习能在大多数国家实现。 然而，有人担心其他公司可能会简单地获取在线视频，购买一些计算资源，从而缩小特斯拉的数据差距，并效仿特斯拉在模拟中的做法。但几周前我们讨论了这种模拟数据的局限性，这并不能替代实际的真实世界数据，只是一种临时措施，以便在监管环境更清晰之前继续推动进展。我们预计特斯拉的资本支出将在未来几年增加，因为他们在年报中有所提及。乐观者训练的需求将是车辆需求的10倍，以实现乐观者的全功能应用。截至目前，特斯拉在人工智能资本支出上的累计花费约为50亿美元，因此在未来五到十年内，这一数字可能增加到500亿美元及以上。尽管埃隆·马斯克表示，未来某个时候乐观者的收入可能会超过10万亿美元，这让人感到激动，但要实现这个目标还有很长的路要走。埃隆表示，特斯拉今年内部计划生产1万台乐观者机器人，但实际可能只能达到几千台。今年晚些时候，生产设计一代将决定他们对生产设计二代所做的改变，后者预计将在明年年中投产。 乐观者尚未最终设计，计划今年开始的试点生产将用于特斯拉内部使用，他们可以在工厂中使用几千台来处理无聊的工作。听起来乐观者的产量增长可能会很疯狂，因为他们计划每年实现十倍的增长。也就是说，计划今年晚些时候推出的乐观者一代试生产线将每月生产约1000台，而希望明年中期推出的二代则将每月生产约1万台。之后，下一条生产线可能每月生产10万台，依此类推。埃隆表示，计划明年中期开始的乐观者二代可能在2026年下半年开始对外客户的交付。

Elon thinks that 1 million optimist units per year the production cost should be less than about 20,000 dollars but the price for optimists will be set by market demand. Just keep in mind this optimist ramp is going to involve an entirely new supply chain and entirely new tech so the risks abound for the ramp and the timing. Elon did say that optimist has the most sophisticated hand that's ever been made and that should allow it to thread a needle. And I have a feeling in the next six months we'll get a new video of optimists showing off these new hands and what they can do. Tesla is building a third megapack factory we don't know where or when but that was encouraging to hear.

埃隆认为，生产100万台Optimist机器人的年产量，每台成本应该少于约2万美元，但销售价格将由市场需求决定。需要注意的是，Optimist的生产将涉及全新的供应链和技术，因此在投产和时间安排上存在很多风险。埃隆还提到，Optimist配备了有史以来最先进的机械手，可以执行如穿针引线这样精细的操作。我感觉在接下来的六个月里，我们会看到一段展示Optimist新机械手及其功能的视频。特斯拉正在建设第三座Megapack工厂，虽然我们还不知道具体地点和时间，但听到这个消息还是让人振奋。

A quick note on the FSD upgrade if you have not already bought the FSD package with hardware 3 I would not just assume that if you buy it now you'll be included in that upgrade group. I'm just saying if it was me I would want to confirm with Tesla and somehow get it in writing that if you buy FSD now only to get that upgrade that they'll actually honor that for you buying it now. When Elon and the team were talking about the semi which is still on track with the same timeline he said it should be a $10 billion per year type project when it comes to revenue but he made the joke like is that even relevant anymore when you think about the opportunities for FSD and optimists. Once again that just gives you a little window into Elon and the team's mind of where they see Tesla going in the next few years.

关于FSD（完全自动驾驶）升级的简要说明：如果您尚未购买带有硬件3的FSD套餐，我建议您不要轻易假设现在购买就会自动包含在升级组中。换句话说，如果是我，我会希望先确认一下，并且以某种方式和特斯拉确认书面承诺，即如果您现在购买FSD只是为了获得这个升级，他们届时会兑现这个承诺。埃隆及其团队在讨论半挂卡车时表示，该项目在收入方面预计每年可达100亿美元，但他开玩笑说，考虑到FSD和未来发展的机会，这个数额是否还有意义。这段话透露了一点埃隆和他的团队如何看待特斯拉未来几年的发展方向。

So with these updates if you take a second to imagine a realistic scenario where at the end of 2026 so less than two years away we have unsupervised in a majority of North America both for Tesla's internal fleet and customer vehicles. Maybe not all of North America like Elon is predicting but let's just say again the majority over 50% and don't forget these vehicles could be transporting both people and goods. Then we have Optimus production at maybe a few thousand every month some being sold externally to customers. The Tesla Semi should be through the challenging early stages of the ramp and nearing profitability for that business line.

这些更新带来的变化令人期待。不妨想象一下一个现实的场景：到2026年底，也就是不到两年时间，我们在北美大部分地区实现无人驾驶功能，不仅用于特斯拉的内部车队，也用于客户车辆。也许不像埃隆·马斯克预测的那样覆盖整个北美，但可以说超过50%的地区达到了这一要求。而且，不要忘记，这些车辆可以用来运送人和货物。同时，Optimus生产线每个月的产量可能达到几千台，其中一些会对外销售给客户。特斯拉半挂卡车（Tesla Semi）预计将克服早期的挑战阶段，逐步接近这一业务线的盈利目标。

The third megapack factory may be nearing completion if not starting low volume production. Tesla energy should be over 100% bigger than it is right now. More affordable models will have been on sale for Tesla for over a year. The CyberCab will have likely started at least low volume production. So even just these few things alone it really shouldn't be hard to see why this future group is so excited and willing to stay patient for another few months or a year. However long it takes for all of these endeavors to finally start increasing Tesla's profits once again and for the market to start giving credit to Tesla for the foundation they've been building for all of this the past few years.

第三家Megapack工厂可能已经接近完工，甚至可能已经开始小批量生产。特斯拉的能源业务规模应该比现在大一倍以上。特斯拉的更经济实惠车型已经上市销售超过一年。CyberCab可能也已经至少开始了小批量生产。因此，仅仅是这些事情，就可以理解为什么这一未来群体如此兴奋，并愿意耐心等待几个月或一年。不管需要多长时间，这些努力最终都会再次增加特斯拉的利润，并使市场开始认可特斯拉在过去几年里为此打下的基础。

This is the inflection point that Elon was talking about on the call. It's partially finally exiting the in between growth waves thing we've been talking about for over a year. And not to oversimplify but it boils down to you either believe all of this is going to happen even if it's a bit late and a bit slower than what's promised or you don't. And as Elon has made explicitly clear if you don't you should just not own Tesla stock. And I do really understand why so many are disillusioned with Tesla. If you've held for a few years and expected big returns you're likely frustrated and fed up. But this is why I always say actual investing is a 7 plus year game. Growth is not linear more often than not and exponential growth requires building a strong foundation which is exactly what Tesla's been doing.

这就是埃隆在电话会议中提到的转折点。这部分意味着我们终于摆脱了我们谈了超过一年的“在不同增长浪潮之间徘徊”的状态。简单来说，你要么相信所有这些最终会发生，哪怕稍微迟了些或比承诺的慢一些，要么就不相信。埃隆已经明确表示，如果你不相信，就不应该持有特斯拉的股票。我确实理解为什么有这么多人对特斯拉感到失望。如果你持有特斯拉股票多年并期望获得高回报，现在可能会感到沮丧和厌倦。但这就是为什么我总是说真正的投资是一个超过7年的游戏。增长往往不是线性的，而指数增长需要建立坚实的基础，这正是特斯拉一直在做的事情。

So the truth is the conversation around Tesla should always be defined. Are we talking about the now you know the next few months kinda like Wall Street does or are we talking about S curves and exponential growth waves that are likely right around the corner over the next 5 years. Your perspective on Tesla really just boils down to which camp now or future you relate more with. I of course am personally in the future camp as I have no need for Tesla stock to perform right now. But I was also a financial advisor and my background is finance and I used to love nerding out on Tesla financials because at the time it was a much more critical piece of the Tesla story back then.

所以，实际上关于特斯拉的讨论应该被明确界定。我们是在谈论像华尔街那样关注接下来几个月的短期情况，还是在讨论未来5年内可能到来的S型增长曲线和指数增长浪潮？你的特斯拉观点实际上取决于你更倾向于关注现在还是未来。当然，我个人更倾向于关注未来，因为我不需要特斯拉的股票现在就表现突出。不过，我曾经是一名财务顾问，我的背景是金融领域，所以我过去常喜欢深入研究特斯拉的财务状况，因为当时这是特斯拉故事中更为关键的一部分。

For a time the stock price was absolutely driven by how many cars were being sold and the profits on those vehicles because that's really all we had for a time. And eventually the day will come back around when Tesla's financials start to accelerate rapidly and there are things we'll need to pay attention to closely to understand this next chapter of the Tesla story. And by the sound of things that may start sometime toward the end of 2025. So until then while it's good to be aware of Tesla's margin compression and the numbers lagging. I don't think it's wise to let it distract from what's about to happen starting later this year.

一段时间内，特斯拉的股价完全受到汽车销量和车辆利润的驱动，因为那段时间我们只能依靠这些数据。最终，特斯拉的财务状况将再次迅速加速发展，届时我们需要密切关注，才能理解特斯拉故事的新篇章。从现在的情况来看，这可能会在2025年底开始。因此，在此之前，虽然了解特斯拉的利润压缩和数字滞后是有益的，但我认为不应因为这些问题而分散注意力，忽视即将于今年晚些时候发生的事情。

I'm not naive enough to think that the now group and the future group are going to start holding hands but I do hope that as we all watch this Tesla story unfold we can do so with some patience and understanding which will make keeping up with the company a bit more enjoyable. Hopefully enabling people to not be so frustrated with why some people just quote don't get it. But on that front perhaps the highlight of the call for me was listening to Adam Jonas get dunked on by Elon and the team for the LiDAR question. Some things apparently will never change. So just remember for the next year or so there's going to be a great divide between the now and the future and both camps have good arguments to make depending on what you want from Tesla.

我并不天真地认为现在的团队和未来的团队会开始携手合作，但我希望在大家关注特斯拉故事的发展时，能带着一些耐心和理解，能让我们关注这家公司时更为愉悦。这样的态度希望能减少人们对某些人“为什么就是不明白”的沮丧。不过，这次电话会议对我来说最有趣的部分，是听到埃隆和团队驳斥亚当·乔纳斯关于LiDAR的问题。有些事情显然永远不会改变。因此，请记住，在未来一年的时间里，现在与未来之间会有很大的分歧，这两派都有它们的好理由，这取决于你希望从特斯拉得到什么。

Some are here for a short time and others for the long haul. Some focus on the tech some on the financials some are long Tesla some are short Tesla some need Tesla stock to go up now some want it to go down as they're still accumulating. So I know certain narratives can frustrate certain groups just know that in the end all that will matter is the product from Tesla and there's a reason they say patience is a virtue. There are valid reasons for people to complain about Tesla right now some other arguments are not so valid.

有些人是短期投资，有些人是长期持有。有些人关注技术，有些人关注财务状况，有些人做多特斯拉，有些人做空特斯拉。有的人希望特斯拉的股票现在就上涨，有的人希望它下跌，因为他们还在继续买入。我知道某些说法可能会让某些群体感到沮丧，但要知道，最终重要的还是特斯拉的产品，而且耐心是一种美德并不是空穴来风。目前，人们对特斯拉有一些合理的批评，也有一些不太合理的。

Tesla was founded as a mission is to advance sustainable transportation and energy and that they were doing a wonderful job before they pivoted into a bunch of businesses that were not sure how they're going to be which is robotics and cybercabs so you know and that's not coming anytime soon either. But having followed Tesla for the past decade I am quite confident that most of what Elon is saying about Tesla right now will turn out to be true. Every great shooter misses now and again but statistically they're then much likelier to hit the next time around.

特斯拉成立的初衷是推动可持续交通和能源的发展，他们在这方面做得非常出色。然而，他们后来转向了一些尚不确定未来如何发展的业务，比如机器人和网络出租车等。所以这些新项目近期也不太可能实现。但我观察特斯拉已有十年时间，我对马斯克当前关于特斯拉的很多说法充满信心，相信大部分会成真。即便是伟大的射手也偶尔会失误，但从统计上讲，他们下次命中的可能性会更大。