Markets Weekly February 1, 2025

Hello, my friends. Today is February 1st and this is Markets Weekly. So this past week was a super exciting week in markets. We had all sorts of things happening, so we have a lot to talk about. First and foremost, of course, we have to talk about the topic du jour. That is Trump tariffs. It seems like President Trump today will start the tariff wars by announcing levies of 25% on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China. Secondly, this past week was also a big week in tech. We had deep-seek and of course, a lot of MAG 7 earnings. So let's talk about what happened over there. And lastly, there was also a lot of data last week. Let's talk about that data as well as foreign central bank actions. Okay, starting with tariffs. Now over the past few days, President Trump has been talking about announcing tariffs starting February 1st, but of course, the market is not, wasn't super sure. Indeed, on Friday, there was a news report out saying that Trump would announce tariffs for February 1st, but wouldn't implement them until the end of the month.

你好，我的朋友们。今天是2月1日，这里是《每周市场分析》。过去的一周，市场上发生了很多令人激动的事情，所以我们有很多话题要讨论。首先，也是最重要的，我们必须谈论的就是当前热门话题，那就是特朗普关税。看起来特朗普总统今天将通过宣布对加拿大和墨西哥征收25%的关税，以及对中国征收10%的关税，开启关税战争。其次，上周也是科技行业的重要一周。我们看到了深度探索（deep-seek）以及许多MAG 7的公司业绩发布。让我们来聊聊那边发生了什么。最后，上周还有很多数据公布，我们也要讨论这些数据以及外国央行的行动。 现在从关税开始。在过去的几天里，特朗普总统一直在谈论要从2月1日开始宣布关税，但市场对这个消息并不那么确定。实际上，周五有新闻报道称，特朗普会在2月1日宣布关税，但直到月底才会实施。

And there would be a process where people could apply for exemptions, which sounded very, very moderate as if it was just a negotiating tactic, giving time for the parties to come to a deal. However, not too long after that press release, we had a White House press secretary, Caroline Levitt, basically say that, yeah, the tariffs are still on. Now, many of you may not have been trading around the first term of Trump, but this is actually very, very common. So the way the Trump world operates, it's kind of like a king's court. And there are many different power centers and many different groups that try to influence policy.

翻译成中文： 并且会有一个让人们可以申请豁免的程序，听起来非常温和，就像是一种谈判策略，为双方达成协议争取时间。然而，在那份新闻稿发布后不久，白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特基本上表示，关税仍然有效。现在，你们中的许多人可能在特朗普的第一个任期内没有经历过贸易，但这其实是非常常见的现象。所以特朗普的世界运作方式有点像国王的宫廷，里面有许多不同的权力中心和团体，试图影响政策。

So, you know, I don't know if it was a purpose leak or anything like that, but the truth is oftentimes these different power centers don't actually know if they have the king's ear. And so it's kind of like Trump's TV show, The Apprentice, where everyone is just trying to compete for attention from Trump. And it's hard to know if you're the favorite party. At the end of the day, you don't actually know what's going to happen until the king speaks. And he has spoken. Let's listen to a little bit about what he said. Mr. President, is there anything China, Canada, and Mexico can do tonight to forestall your implementation of tariffs tomorrow? No, not right now. No. Not a negotiating tool? No, it's not pure economic. We have big deficits with, as you know, with all three of them. And in one case, they're sending massive amounts of fentanyl, killing hundreds of thousands of people a year with a fentanyl.

所以，你知道，我不确定这是不是故意泄露的消息之类的，但事实是，这些不同的权力中心往往不知道自己是否真的受到了“国王”的重视。这有点像特朗普的电视节目《学徒》，每个人都在努力争取特朗普的注意，很难知道自己是否是最受青睐的一方。最终，你不知道会发生什么，直到“国王”开口。而他已经开口，我们来听听他说了些什么。总统先生，中国、加拿大、和墨西哥今晚可以做些什么来阻止您明天实施关税吗？没有，目前没有。不是一个谈判工具吗？不，这不是单纯的经济问题。正如你所知道的，我们与这三个国家都有巨大的贸易逆差。在其中一个国家，他们正在发送大量的芬太尼，每年导致成千上万人死亡。

And in the other two cases there, making it possible for this poison to get in. Number one, and number two, we have big deficits and it's something we're doing. And we'll possibly very substantially increase it. We're not. We'll see how it is. But it's a lot of money coming to the United States. As you know, we have about a $200 billion deficit with Canada getting close to $200 billion. They've treated us very unfairly. And I say, why should we be subsidizing Canada? They, you know, it's wonderful. I have so many friends in Canada. It's a great place. Is there a concession? They're looking for, sir? No, we're not looking for a concession. We'll just see what happens.

在另外两个情况下，导致这种毒物能够进入。第一，第二，我们有很大的赤字，这是我们正在做的事情。而且我们可能会大幅增加它。我们没有。我们会看看情况如何。但有很多钱流入美国。 你知道，我们与加拿大的赤字接近2000亿美元。他们对待我们非常不公平。我说，为什么我们要补贴加拿大呢？他们，你知道，那里很好。我在加拿大有很多朋友，是个好地方。 他们在寻找让步吗，先生？ 不，我们不在寻找让步。我们会看看会发生什么。

So that was fun from a press conference Friday evening. And it's very clear that President Trump wants to do tariffs. And there's kind of nothing these other guys can do to change his mind. Now that's actually really interesting because, you know, all these other countries, they want to have white tariffs, but they don't really know how. Now, last week, there was a very interesting podcast recorded on the looting hour, which is a good podcast I recommend with Danielle Smith, who is the premier of Alberta. A premier is basically like a governor. And she talks about her experience when she went to Mar-a-Lago to discuss with President Trump about working together. And my sense was she didn't really know what the Trump administration wanted. Did you want? Did you want? Is it about the border? Is about fentanyl? Is about military spending? You know, just tell us, and we want to work with you. After all, we are good allies, and we want to work together. But I came away with a sense that she didn't really know what Trump wanted. And from press conference yesterday, I'm getting the sense that, you know, Trump is not really forthcoming.

上周五晚上的新闻发布会很有趣，很明显特朗普总统想要实施关税，而且其他人似乎无法改变他的想法。其实这点很有意思，因为其他国家都希望能消除关税，但他们不太知道如何去做。上周，《The Looting Hour》这个我推荐的优秀播客中录制了一期有趣的节目，嘉宾是丹妮尔·史密斯，她是阿尔伯塔省的省长，省长基本上就像州长。她谈到了自己去海湖庄园与特朗普总统讨论合作时的经历。我的感觉是她并不真的明白特朗普政府想要什么：是想谈边境问题？是关于芬太尼问题？还是军费开支？她只是希望特朗普能明确说明，毕竟我们是好盟友，愿意合作。但我感觉她并不清楚特朗普到底想要什么。从昨天的新闻发布会后，我也有这种感觉，一种特朗普不太愿意直言相告的感觉。

He keeps talking about fentanyl and so forth. But even when people are willing to work with him on that, he doesn't seem to change his mind. Now, Mark Stonewep and Flak this post from from Someone on X, which noted that under the Trump trade agreements, the USMCA trade agreements, again, we have a somewhat of a free trade zone. But one of the ways, one of the exceptions where you can have terrorists in this context is if it's for security. And so maybe Trump just keeps repeating these fentanyl and border stuff because it's his legal basis for putting tariffs on Canada and Mexico. So if that's the case, what does he actually really want? Is it just to revenue? Is it in anything else?

他一直在谈论芬太尼等等。但即使人们愿意在这方面与他合作，他似乎也没有改变主意。现在，Mark Stonewep 和 Flak 从某人在 X 上发布的帖子中指出，根据特朗普的贸易协议，即 USMCA 贸易协议，我们实际上有一个相对自由的贸易区。但是在这种情况下，对商品征收关税的例外情况之一是出于安全考虑。所以，也许特朗普不断重复这些关于芬太尼和边境的问题，是因为这是他对加拿大和墨西哥征收关税的法律依据。那么如果是这样，他到底想要什么呢？只是为了增加收入吗？还有其他原因吗？

Now, I think just looking at his past history and reading between the lines, I think it's going to be different for both Canada and Mexico. So for Canada, maybe he really just does just wants Canada. I mean, I think he looks at Canada and sees a region that is very much completely integrated into the US economy, right? Very interdependent there. He sees people who are basically completely dependent upon the US for defense. And I don't know if you guys have ever been to Canada, but the people there, they sound like Americans, culturally very similar, and many places in Canada look just like America. And so functionally, maybe he just thinks that this is functionally very similar to America. It has, in fact, he also has natural resources, access to the Arctic. Maybe his ambition really is to extend the US border. And I understand that many Canadians don't want that, but that that is one possibility for how Trump is thinking about this. In any case, it seems like nothing the Canadians can do will satisfy President Trump.

现在，我想基于他过去的历史，并从字里行间分析，我认为针对加拿大和墨西哥的情况会有所不同。对于加拿大，也许他真的只是想要加拿大。我是说，他看待加拿大时，发现这个区域已经深深融入美国经济，与美国非常依存。他认为，加拿大的人在国防上基本完全依赖美国。我不知道你们有没有去过加拿大，但那里的人听上去像美国人，文化也很相似，加拿大的很多地方看起来就像美国。所以从功能上看，也许他认为加拿大与美国非常相似。实际上，加拿大还有丰富的自然资源和通往北极的通道。也许他的野心真的是想扩展美国的边界。我理解很多加拿大人并不想要这样，但这可能是特朗普考虑这个问题的一种方式。无论如何，似乎加拿大人做什么都无法让特朗普总统满意。

Now, what are the economic ramifications of this? Well, it's kind of going to be a mess because these the economies of Canada and the US are really tightly integrated. Now, Canada does have a very large trade surplus with the US, but a lot of that is actually oil. So, the US imports a lot of oil from Canada, specifically the province of Alberta. Now, if you exclude oil, it seems from what I hear that Canada actually has a trade deficit with the US. So a lot of that is oil. And during that press conference, Trump later on also thought about said that he might lower tariffs on oil, so as to not impact oil prices too much in the US. The oil thing is kind of tricky because the US imports these heavier grade oil barrels, oil from Alberta, mixes it with its own oil and then refines it.

现在，这对经济会有什么影响呢？嗯，情况可能会比较复杂，因为加拿大和美国的经济紧密相连。目前，加拿大确实对美国有很大的贸易顺差，但这其中很大一部分实际上是来自石油。美国从加拿大进口了大量石油，特别是来自阿尔伯塔省的石油。如果不算石油的话，据我所知，加拿大实际上对美国是有贸易逆差的。所以，很大一部分顺差来自石油。在那场新闻发布会上，特朗普还表示他可能会降低石油关税，以免对美国的油价产生过大影响。石油这件事情比较复杂，因为美国进口这些更重的原油，来自阿尔伯塔的石油，与美国自产的石油混合后，再进行加工提炼。

And the refiners can easily be recalibrated, and it's not as easy to replace these heavier barrels. So, in a sense, the US really needs those Canadian barrels. And similarly, Alberta is kind of in the middle of a lot of the oil production facilities in Alberta are kind of in the middle of nowhere, and it's not easy to sell them elsewhere. The system is kind of set up so that they're piped down to the US. So, both sides are kind of captive when it comes to oil. Another point is that there's a lot of automotive manufacturing in the US and Canada. So, this is really helpful chart by the Bank of Canada showing that a lot of parts are manufactured in Canada, sent to the US, and then sent back and forth. Again, these supply chains are very integrated, so that could totally cause a lot of turmoil.

炼油厂很容易重新校准，但想要替换这些更重的油桶却不那么简单。因此，从某种意义上说，美国真的需要加拿大的这些石油。而且，同样地，阿尔伯塔省的许多石油生产设施位于偏僻的地方，要把这些石油卖到其他地方并不容易。整个系统的设置就是为了把石油通过管道输送到美国。所以，在石油方面，两国都有些被对方“绑架”了。另一个方面是，美国和加拿大有大量汽车制造业。加拿大银行提供的这张图表非常有帮助，它显示很多零部件是在加拿大制造的，然后运送到美国，再进行来回运输。这些供应链是非常紧密结合的，这可能引发大量的动荡。

Now, the Bank of Canada had the misfortune of having to publish a monetary policy report last week. It's a misfortune because they have no idea what's going to happen. They gave a forecast, noting that of course, if we have tariffs, all those changes and we don't really know what's going to happen. So, it seems like one of their simulations is saying that if we have this big tariff war, I don't know what's going to happen, but best guess is that we're going to have slower growth in Canada in higher inflation, and that sounds totally reasonable. To me, again, there's many moving parts to this. It's basically impossible to predict the consequences.

上周，加拿大银行不幸地不得不发布一份货币政策报告。说是“不幸”，是因为他们对未来的发展毫无头绪。他们给出了一个预测，并指出，如果我们遇到关税问题，所有这些都会发生变化，我们实际上不知道将会发生什么。所以，他们的一个模拟结果似乎表明，如果我们真的陷入一场大规模的关税战争，我不知道会发生什么，但最合理的猜测是，加拿大将面临较慢的经济增长和更高的通货膨胀，这听起来非常合理。对我来说，这里有很多不确定因素，基本上不可能准确预测后果。

Now, something interesting is that the Liberal government over there is basically telling everyone that if the US puts tariffs against us, we will definitely retaliate. Conservative party leader there, Piero Polyviere, also was saying that he is on board with imposing retaliatory tariffs, and the Liberal government there, now, again, Trudeau is still in charge. He is still, until the election, he's still in charge over there, is basically talking about huge spending, maybe pandemic level stimulus to help the Canadian people. My sense is this is going to be quite a volatile mix because it's very stat stationary if we kind of have this tariff shock and then they continue to spend a lot of money, very, very bad news for the Canadian currency. So, we'll see how that happens. Everything is up in the air, and President Trump does change his mind, so we'll find out over the coming days.

现在，有趣的是那边的自由党政府基本上是在告诉大家，如果美国针对我们加征关税，我们一定会进行报复。那边的保守党领袖皮埃尔·波利耶夫也表示支持采取报复性关税。而且那边的自由党政府，现在依然由特鲁多掌权，在选举之前他仍在位，基本上在讨论巨额支出，可能是为了帮助加拿大人民进行疫情级别的刺激措施。我觉得这会是一个相当不稳定的组合，因为如果我们遇到这种关税冲击，然后他们继续大手笔花钱，对加元来说是非常不利的消息。所以，我们拭目以待。现在一切都悬而未决，而特朗普总统也常常改变主意，所以我们将在未来几天内得到答案。

Now, on the Mexican side, it's also really difficult to see what Trump wants. Now, again, there has been an open border policy between Southern border and Mexico, and a lot of people have been coming through that Southern border. Now, whereas Biden told everyone that we needed to have congressional legislation to fix this, that's obviously not the case. And since the Trump term, there's been a significant decrease in illegal crossings. A large part of that is cooperation with Mexico in ringing in illegal crossings. So, Mexico has done, has really gone out of their way to try to please President Trump. But even after cracking down on illegal immigration, even after putting more enforcement on drugs, it doesn't seem like that's enough to avoid tariffs. And I think that again speaks to a bigger point that Trump is Trump, bigger goals that Trump wants.

现在，在墨西哥方面，也很难看出特朗普的意图。长期以来，美墨边境之间一直实行开放边境政策，许多人通过南部边境进入美国。拜登表示我们需要通过国会立法来解决这一问题，但显然情况并非如此。从特朗普执政期间起，非法入境人数显著减少。很大一部分原因是墨西哥与美国合作打击非法入境。墨西哥确实尽力了，努力迎合特朗普总统的要求。即便加强了对非法移民和毒品的打击力度，似乎仍不足以避免关税制裁。我想这反映了一个更大的问题，即特朗普有他更大的目标。

Again, the ultimate goal that Trump talks about a lot is to re-industrialize the United States. Now, this trade agreement and the Biden administration's policy of French shoring actually is not been helpful for re-industrializing the US. It's been helpful trying to diversify supply chains from China, but that hasn't been helpful for US manufacturing, because a lot of what's been happening is that foreign factories, including Chinese factories, have moved and built factories in Mexico. And because Mexico is part of this free trade area with the US, it's basically a way for Chinese companies to backdoor into the US, and that's been happening to a large degree. So, in a sense, French shoring is not going to work under the Trump administration. The factories can't be built in Mexico. They have to be built in US. So, I think that seems to be the problem there and why Trump wants to renegotiate the USMCA. Again, if you are a Mexico, obviously, you want jobs to be in your country and you don't want them to go to the US. So, I think that's going to be a very tough time for for it's going to be a very tough negotiation. And I'm not sure how this is going to pan out.

特朗普经常谈论的最终目标是让美国重新工业化。然而，当前的贸易协议和拜登政府推行的“友岸外包”政策并没有对美国的再工业化有所帮助。虽然这些举措有助于将供应链多样化、减少对中国的依赖，但它们对美国制造业并没有实质性的帮助。许多外国工厂，包括中国的工厂，已经搬迁并在墨西哥建立了工厂。而由于墨西哥是与美国的自由贸易区的一部分，这实际上成为了中国企业进入美国市场的一个后门，这种情况相当普遍。因此，所谓的“友岸外包”在特朗普政府下无法奏效。工厂不能建在墨西哥，而是必须建在美国。我认为，这正是问题所在，也是特朗普想要重新谈判美墨加协议（USMCA）的原因。如果你是墨西哥，显然希望就业机会留在自己国家，而不是流向美国。因此，这会是一个非常艰难的谈判过程，我不确定这将如何发展。

So, all in all, it seems like we're in a pretty tough place here and set up for some turmoil. Now, again, many people say, Trump is all about the markets, right? The markets, the markets. Well, he was actually asking about this at the press briefing. Let's listen to what he said. Are you concerned about the market reaction around tariffs? No, no tariffs. The word tariff is a very misunderstood word. You've heard me say, I say it kiddingly, but it's one of the most beautiful words in the dictionary. It really is. So, yes, Trump does care about the markets, but we also have to know that he cares about other things as well. And being able to change the global trade order is something that he has dreamed of since the 1980s. And in 2018, 2019, we did have some significant market tumbles over there, but that didn't really change his trajectory. Now, it seems like we're going to have tariffs of 10% on China as well. You know, I'm not really sure how that's going to play out. Chinese, of course, would definitely retaliate. It seems like that's going to be something that's kind of going to be in the back burner first. And it seems like the administration first wants to take care of these events close by before focusing on China. Maybe later on, again, we are only in week two of the Trump administration. So a lot of stuff happening, guys. This is going to be a super exciting year.

综上所述，我们现在的处境相当艰难，并且可能会经历一些动荡。很多人说，特朗普非常关注市场，对吧？市场，市场。他在新闻发布会上也被问到了这个问题。来听听他说了什么：你担心关税对市场的影响吗？不，不关税。关税这个词是一个非常被误解的词。你听过我说，我开玩笑地说，这是字典里最美丽的词之一。确实如此。所以，是的，特朗普确实关心市场，但我们也要知道他关心其他的事情，例如改变全球贸易秩序，这是他从上世纪80年代就梦寐以求的事情。在2018和2019年，我们确实经历了一些重大的市场波动，但那并没有改变他的方向。现在，我们似乎要对中国征收10%的关税。我不太确定这会如何发展。当然，中国会采取反制措施。目前看起来，这个问题可能会被稍微放在后面，因为政府似乎想先处理临近的一些事件，然后再专注于中国。也许稍后再说，毕竟这只是特朗普政府上任的第二周。今年将是极其令人期待的一年，有很多事情会发生。

Okay, now let's talk a little bit about tech the past week. As we all know, the big news the past week was deep-seek. Now, just to rewind a little bit, deep-seek, it wasn't released the past week. It's been released for a few weeks now, and people in the know have been talking about it. But the market, of course, wasn't listening. And then one day it realizes it and it reacts. So the market is often like that. Okay, it's not super fast and sometimes not very smart. Now, deep-seek is basically a Chinese AI company that's managed to be able to do AI at a much cheaper way. Basically, huge surge in productivity. Again, productivity is same outputs produce more in same inputs, produce more outputs. And deep-seek was able to produce a pretty good product with much less cost. How much less cost? It's not sure. A lot of people debate this, but I think they all agree that they basically, it was a very competitive product, did some good technological innovation and now it seems like AI companies don't need as much compute power to produce their product.

好的，现在让我们聊聊过去一周的科技动态。正如大家所知，上周的大新闻是关于Deep-Seek。不过，回顾一下，Deep-Seek并不是上周发布的，而是几周前就已经推出了，业内人士早已在讨论它。但市场并未立刻反应，直到有一天突然意识到它的重要性并作出反应。市场的特点往往如此，并不总是快速且聪明。 Deep-Seek基本上是一家中国的人工智能公司，成功地以更低的成本进行人工智能的开发。可以说，他们生产力大幅提升。提升生产力的意思是，用同样的投入产生更多的产出，而Deep-Seek在较少的成本下制造出一个相当不错的产品。具体节省了多少成本虽有争议，但大家都一致认为这是个很有竞争力的产品，做了一些不错的技术创新。现在看来，AI公司不再需要那么多计算能力就能生产出他们的产品。

Now, this, of course, has huge implications for a lot of AI companies, specifically NVIDIA. Everyone was buying NVIDIA chips handover fist because NVIDIA chips are the best when it comes to training AI, just running AI stuff, and everyone wanted to have access to that. And so there was kind of an arms race where all the big tech companies buying just hundreds of billions of dollars worth of NVIDIA chips. Now, if you can produce the same product with less compute power, obviously you don't need as much NVIDIA chips. And so that's unambiguously bad for NVIDIA chip sales and you saw the NVIDIA stock kind of tank. Now, at the same time, there's also a lot of people in the market talking about something called Jevons Paradox, which means, of course, that is something becomes cheaper. Sometimes people demand more of it. And so by this logic, having cheaper AI just means people buy more NVIDIA chips because there's going to be more demand for AI. So that increased demand will outweigh the cost savings and end up in more more ship sales. So basically, if AI training is expensive, got to buy NVIDIA, in and of AI training is cheap, also got to buy NVIDIA.

现在，这显然对很多AI公司有着巨大的影响，尤其是对NVIDIA（英伟达）。大家都在疯狂采购NVIDIA的芯片，因为NVIDIA的芯片在训练AI和运行AI相关事务方面是最好的，所以所有人都想获得这些芯片。因此，大型科技公司掀起了一场“军备竞赛”，斥资数百亿美元购买NVIDIA的芯片。而如果你能以更少的计算能力生产出同样的产品，那么显然你就不需要那么多的NVIDIA芯片。这对于NVIDIA的芯片销售来说显然是不利的，所以你也看到NVIDIA的股票有所下跌。同时，市场上也有很多人在谈论一种叫做“杰文斯悖论”的东西。这意味着，如果某样东西变便宜了，人们有时会需求更多。根据这个逻辑，更便宜的AI意味着人们会购买更多的NVIDIA芯片，因为对AI的需求会上升。所以，需求的增加会超过成本节省，最终带来更多的芯片销售。基本来说，AI训练昂贵时需要买NVIDIA，AI训练便宜时也需要买NVIDIA。

Now, when you see something like this, when a stock can only go up, nothing matters. You guys, it's time to be very, very cautious here. And I would not be surprised if any of the video has talked. Now, of course, this AI theme is also a big driver in a lot of other mags of in stocks as well. And that had a big impact. Basically, if you are someone who buys AI, it's really good for the cost of AI to come down, right? Now, you don't have to pay as much for the same thing. But if you're someone who sold AI, that's not good because you can't charge as much for your AI services. And that's especially bad if you've already spent hundreds of billions of dollars getting ready for a lot of AI demand. So you kind of see that a little bit in the stock price, say, Microsoft not doing that well, Apple, which, you know, wasn't that big into AI doing much better?

现在，当你看到这样的情况时，当股票只能上涨时，似乎一切都无所谓了。各位，这时候我们要非常非常谨慎。我不会感到惊讶，如果视频中有提到类似的内容。当然，AI主题也是很多其他股票的重要推动力，对市场产生了很大影响。基本上，如果你是购买AI的人，AI成本下降对你来说是很好的，因为现在你不需要为同样的东西支付那么多。但如果你是出售AI的人，这就不太妙了，因为你不能像之前那样对AI服务收取高价。这尤其糟糕，特别是如果你已经投入了数千亿美元来准备迎接大量的AI需求时。因此，你可能会在一些股票价格中看到这种情况，比如微软表现一般，而不太涉足AI的苹果却表现得更好。

Now, from a macro economy standpoint, having these huge productivity advancements is really, really good. If you think AI is going to be a big part of productivity, boom, we're in the future. Well, now it's also cheaper now. So it's super productive. And a lot of these applications are still in an early stage, but just global macro economics, speaking, having these breakthroughs is really helpful. And I would also note that if you have these small companies, just basically out of left field, making these technological breakthroughs, well, obviously, there's a lot of smart people all over the world. And now they know that they can make big advances without a lot of money. So there could be additional disruption going forward.

从宏观经济的角度来看，这些巨大的生产力进步是非常有利的。如果认为人工智能将成为生产力的重要部分，那么可以说我们已经步入了未来。而且，现在的成本也更低了，所以生产效率非常高。许多这些应用仍处于早期阶段，但从全球宏观经济的角度来看，这些突破是非常有帮助的。我还想提到的是，如果一些小公司能够在不知名的情况下实现这些技术突破，这说明世界各地都有很多聪明的人。而且现在他们知道，无需大量资金也能实现重大进展。因此，未来可能会出现更多的颠覆性变化。

Now, one other thing I want to talk about is we also had Tesla earnings last week. And it was actually a super interesting earnings call because by the numbers, they were not very good, right? Tesla's margins are shrinking. And it just doesn't seem like from a business metric viewpoint, it's doing that well. And yet at the same time, its stock was up notably after the earnings call. Here's an interesting analyst report from JP Morgan, basically just kind of struggling their shoulders and saying, I'm not sure what's going on here. All the business metrics are turning down. But Elon goes on stage and he says, it's going to be epic. And there's a path where Tesla could be more valuable than all the other top five companies. And maybe we'll have a product that can generate 10 trillion in revenue and so forth. And people hear that and then the stock goes to the moon. So again, that tells you there's a lot of speculative fervor in the market and on top of what we saw in NVIDIA, where you have the Jebbins paradox stuff. And by some data metrics, tremendous amounts of retail, piling into NVIDIA, buying the dip. Now guys, I think there's a lot of speculative fervor in the market in tech especially. And it seems things are changing. So I'm extra cautious about all this, about the market and tech in particular.

现在，我想谈谈一件事情，我们上周也关注了特斯拉的财报。这次的财报发布会其实非常有趣，因为从数据上看，情况并不乐观。特斯拉的利润率在缩小，单从商业指标来看，表现并不算好。然而，与此同时，它的股价在财报发布后显著上涨。JP摩根的分析报告也提到这一点，只能耸耸肩说不太明白发生了什么。所有商业指标都在下降，但埃隆·马斯克上台后却表示，未来会很精彩，特斯拉有可能会比其他前五家公司更有价值，甚至可能开发出年收入达10万亿美元的产品。很多人相信这些话，所以股价一路飙升。这再次表明，市场上充满了投机热潮，特别是在我们看到的类似英伟达的现象中，那里有大量的散户买入英伟达的股票并趁低吸纳。现在，我觉得市场上，尤其是科技领域的投机情绪非常浓厚，情况似乎在变化。因此，我对市场特别是科技行业持非常谨慎的态度。

Okay, the last thing that I want to talk about is all the big data releases we've had the past week, we had a lot of big data, we had GDP, for example, and also central bank meetings. Now on the US front GDP, a little bit lower than expected, but the consumer is totally booming, right? Much consumer spending, much higher than expected. My own guess is that just linked to asset prices. Everyone is having a lot more money to spend since the stock market is going to the moon, crypto is going to the moon, and that really does have an impact on spending. Now looking at the labor market data, it does seem we have the best metric for labor compensation, the employment compensation index, and it is steadily decelerating. So that tells me that from a wage standpoint, the labor market is definitely softening, wages are coming down, and that is a general cooling of inflation. Now there's some interesting developments when it comes to the worker buyout and Elon's efforts to control federal spending. I think that's going to have an impact on the labor market as well, and I'll write about it on my blog this week, which ultimately, of course, can impact how the Fed reacts.

好的，我最后想谈论的是我们在过去一周经历的所有重要数据发布。我们获得了很多重要数据，比如国内生产总值（GDP）和央行会议。在美国方面，GDP低于预期，但消费者表现非常活跃，消费者支出远高于预期。我猜测这与资产价格有关。由于股市和加密货币市场的持续上涨，大家手头上的钱更多了，这确实对消费有影响。 现在来看劳动力市场的数据，表明我们拥有关于劳动报酬的最佳指标，即就业补偿指数，并且这个指数正在稳步下降。这告诉我，从工资的角度来看，劳动力市场正在明显减弱，工资在下降，而这反映出通货膨胀总体在降温。 关于员工收购和伊隆·马斯克控制联邦支出的努力，也有一些有趣的发展。我认为这也会对劳动力市场产生影响，我将在本周的博客中写关于这些内容，这当然最终可能影响美联储的反应。

The big central bank meetings the past week was, of course, the ECB, and pretty downbeat, the ECB cut. It looks like the market thinks will cut again shortly. Overall, the European economy is just not doing well. And so the market is thinking more and more that they might want to go not just to neutral, but to easing mode. And my dad, look, I already noted that they're going to publish new research to give the market an idea where they think neutral is. And as the European economy slows, maybe you might have to go from neutral to easing, which would be below that number. So it thinks not going that well in Europe, in her opening remarks, she pointed out a scenario where maybe as the global economy picks up, you know, we could have more exports and that would be good for European growth. But, you know, I'm not sure that's going to happen. In Trump's press conference, he also explicitly singled out Europe and was very unhappy and get reiterated his promise for more tariffs. So there is a trade war on that front that will open up as well. So not not to looking very good there.

过去一周的大型央行会议中，当然有欧洲央行（ECB），整体来说比较悲观。欧洲央行进行了降息，而且市场认为很快还会再次降息。总体来看，欧洲经济状况不佳。因此，市场越来越认为他们不只需要回到中性利率，还可能要进入宽松模式。我的父亲提到，他们会发布新研究，让市场了解他们认为的中性利率在哪里。随着欧洲经济放缓，可能需要从中性转向宽松，这个利率会低于现在的水平。所以，欧洲的情况不太理想。在她的开场白中，她还提到一种可能的情景：如果全球经济好转，可能会增加出口，这将有利于欧洲的增长。然而，我不确定这是否会发生。在特朗普的新闻发布会上，他也特别提到了欧洲，对其表示不满，并重申了增加关税的承诺。因此，在贸易战方面也会有冲突，所以前景看起来不太乐观。

We also had a bank of Canada, they cut again. Now for them, it's really difficult. The Canadian economy is slowing, but you have this tariff war. Now, if the tariff war, and even if you have a tariff war, as a central rank, it's hard to know how to react because maybe things get resolved and everything is okay. But if things don't get resolved, if things really are structural, because, again, Trump is asking for something that the Canadian government cannot give, then you will probably expect much more rate cuts. And, you know, if in combination with significant fiscal spending over there, you know, it would be a very stack evolutionary mix. So again, everything is up in the air because all these developments, the global economy, is going to depend upon what happens in the White House. And that's something that changes every day.

我们也提到了加拿大银行，他们再次降息。对他们来说，这是个非常困难的局面。加拿大经济正在放缓，但同时还面临关税战。作为中央银行，即使有关税战，也很难知道如何应对，因为可能问题会解决，一切会好起来。但如果问题没有解决，而且这些问题真的是结构性的，因为特朗普提出了加拿大政府无法满足的要求，那么很可能会有更多的降息。再加上那边显著的财政支出，这将形成一个非常复杂的经济组合。因此，一切都悬而未决，因为全球经济的发展将取决于白宫发生的事情，而那是每天都在变化的。

All right, it's been an exciting week. And I think next week will also be as exciting. Thanks so much for tuning in. And also I did a more long-term discussion with Jack Farley of Monetary Matters. I'll post that on the channel as well. Take a look.

好的，这真是令人激动的一周。我觉得下周也会同样精彩。非常感谢你的收看。此外，我还与《货币事务》的杰克·法利进行了一次更长时间的讨论。我会在频道上发布那段视频，欢迎大家观看。

All right, talk to you guys next week.

好的，下周再和你们聊。