How 700 people manage 1.5% of all listed companies worldwide | Norges Bank Investment Management

If you take a longer term, you make fewer decisions. The fewer decisions you make, the better that tend to be. And if you make one decision a month, it tends to be better if you make 10 a day. MUSIC Good afternoon, everybody. Welcome to another session of Goldman Sachs Talks. And I'm delighted to be joined today by the CEO of Nordges Bank Investment Management, Nikolai Tangen. So first of all, let's welcome Nikolai to Goldman Sachs. APPLAUSE So Nikolai is responsible for the management of the government pension fund. It's the world's largest self-enwar fund, owning about 1.4% of the world's listed companies. Nikolai also runs the daily operations of Nordges Bank Investment Management. He was previously the chief executive officer and chief investment officer of AKO Capital, one of Europe's top investment management firms. Nikolai founded AKO Capital and also established the AKO Foundation, which aims to support education, promote the arts, and combat climate change. We're obviously going to talk to Nikolai about Nordges Bank, how investments can drive change, leadership, and what he's learned from some of the top leaders in the world from your podcast. So I'm looking forward to talking about that. And so if it's OK, we're going to kind of jump right in. So, OK. Well, so you're coming up on your fifth year anniversary as a CEO of Nordges Bank Investment Management, Norway's $1.7 trillion investment fund. And the fund is up 60% since you took over in 2020. Talk about the responsibility of stewarding a pool of capital this large. Talk a little bit about how you kind of think about that responsibility and how it's kind of framed the way you've tried to set this up over the last five years. Yeah, it's a big responsibility because it's such a kind of big fund for a very small country. And despite, we only use 2.5% of the fund every year. It provides more than 20% of the state budget.

如果采取长期策略，你会减少决策次数。决策越少，往往质量越高。如果每月只做一个决策，通常比每天做十个决策要好。 音乐 下午好，欢迎大家参加另一场高盛谈话活动。我很高兴今天能够与北欧银行投资管理公司的首席执行官尼古拉·唐恩一同出席。首先，让我们欢迎尼古拉来到高盛。掌声！尼古拉负责管理政府养老基金，该基金是全球最大的主权财富基金，持有全球约1.4%的上市公司股份。尼古拉也负责北欧银行投资管理公司的日常运作。他曾是欧洲顶级投资管理公司之一 AKO Capital 的首席执行官兼首席投资官。尼古拉创立了 AKO Capital，并设立了 AKO 基金会，旨在支持教育、促进艺术和应对气候变化。我们显然会与尼古拉探讨北欧银行投资、投资如何推动变革、领导力，以及他从世界顶级领导者播客中学到的东西。我很期待谈论这些内容。那么如果可以的话，我们就直接开始吧。你即将迎来担任北欧银行投资管理公司首席执行官五周年的纪念日，即挪威1.7万亿美元投资基金的负责人。自2020年你接管以来，该基金增长了60%。谈一谈管理这么大一笔资金的责任感，谈一点你如何看待这种责任，以及你在过去五年中是如何设置这方面条件的。 是的，这是一项重大责任，因为对一个小国来说，这是一笔非常大的基金。尽管我们每年只使用基金的2.5%，但它提供了超过20%的国家预算。

And we have on our website a ticker, which is the live value of the fund, and is updated 13 times per second. So pretty kind of live. And it's the most wattage number in the country. So everybody is focusing in on it. So big responsibility. But it's made easier by the fact that we have a mandate, a really, really good mandate. Which is basically made by the Ministry of Finance. And it's brought politically anchored. So all the political parties agree with what we're doing. It means that they will not change their mind at the wrong time. And so that's good. And then also, of course, I don't do it on my own. We have 700 people, a really, really great team. And then, yes, there are a lot of zeros in 19,000 billion Norwegian corona. But you don't really think about those numbers. You think about doing the right thing, doing the right processes. And then the numbers will follow. Yeah. I know that some of the guiding principles are to be long-term oriented and diversified.

在我们的网站上有一个实时更新的基金数值指示器，每秒更新13次，所以基本上是实时的。这也是全国最受关注的数值，所以责任重大。不过，这一点也因我们有个相当好的任务而变得容易，这个任务基本上是由财政部制定的，有着政治上的支持。所以所有的政党都同意我们的做法，这意味着他们不会在不当的时候改变主意。这当然是好事。另外，当然，我不是一个人做好这些事情的。我们有一个由700人组成的非常优秀的团队。是的，19,000亿挪威克朗中确实有很多个零，但你并不会一直想着这些数字。你只需要专注于做正确的事情，使用正确的流程，数字自然会随之而来。我知道我们的一些指导原则是注重长远和多样化。

But talk a little bit about how you decide where to invest. And how do you decide where not to invest? So again, the Ministry has this mandate. But at the same time, we have to do it in an ethical way. So we have a separate council of ethics, which decides where we cannot invest. We don't invest in coal, weapons, and so on. And there are some countries where we don't invest. And so that's the broad picture. We are very diversified. We own some 9,000 companies across the whole world. In Europe, we own a bit more, close to 2 and 1,000 to 3%. Across Europe.

谈谈你们如何决定投资的方向，以及如何决定不投资的领域。我们的部门有一个明确的任务，但与此同时，我们必须以一种符合道德的方式来进行投资。因此，我们设立了一个独立的道德委员会，以决定哪些地方不能进行投资。我们不投资于煤炭、武器等领域，而且还有一些国家我们也不投资。整体来看，我们的投资非常多元化，在全球拥有大约9,000家公司。在欧洲，我们的投资要稍多一些，大约占2%到3%。

Yeah. So I know that one of the things that you've said repeatedly, is you really aim to be the most transparent investment fund in the world. Talk a little bit about the benefits of transparency when you're running an investment pool like this. And how you think about transparency as a principal. Yeah, to me, transparency is like totally key. Transparency increases trust. If the more your clients can see, the more they trust you. We disclose every holding we have twice a year. And we are the most transparent fund in the world. There is actually a world championship in transparency. Is there? Yeah. And for a period of time. Didn't know that. That's the sport I'm doing. Now, for a while, the Canadians were number one. And I thought, hey, find that the Canadians beat us in ice hockey. But it's not fine that they beat us in transparency. Well, I don't know that it's really fine that they beat when ice hockey.

好的。我知道你一直强调的目标之一是成为世界上最透明的投资基金。谈谈在管理这样的投资池时，透明度带来的好处，以及你如何看待透明度作为一个原则。对我来说，透明度是绝对关键的。透明度增加信任。客户看到的越多，他们就越信任你。我们每年两次披露所有持仓，因此我们是世界上最透明的基金。实际上，还有一个关于透明度的世界锦标赛。真的吗？有的。曾经有一段时间，加拿大是第一名。我想，加拿大人在冰球上击败我们无所谓，但在透明度上击败我们就不行了。嗯，我并不认为他们在冰球上击败我们就真的无所谓。

But so last year for the first time, we became the world champion. That's awesome. Yeah. I want to talk a little bit about climate, because I know it's an area of focus for you. Talk a little bit about the private sector, the world the private sector should play, the world investors play when it comes to the environment and sustainability. Do you see, how do you think about the long-term investment opportunity around these long cycle transition issues? Well, so we care about climate because it is a financial risk. We see it now in a lot of the commodity prices. You see it in coffee, olive oil, orange juice, all these kind of things, where the prices are going up, because harvests are worse because of the climate.

但是去年，我们第一次成为了世界冠军。真是太棒了。是的。我想聊聊气候问题，因为我知道这是你关注的领域。谈谈私营部门在环境和可持续发展方面应该扮演的角色，以及世界投资者在其中的作用。你怎么看待这些长期周期性转型问题的投资机会？ 嗯，我们关注气候是因为它是一种金融风险。我们现在在很多商品价格中看到了这一点。比如咖啡、橄榄油、橙汁这些东西的价格都在上涨，因为受气候影响，收成变差了。

So climate and the financial market is linked in a different way than it has been before. So we spend a lot of time working with our companies, making sure they do the right thing on climate. I appreciate there's been a backlash in the US. We haven't really seen that to the same extent in Europe. And for sure, in Norway, we continue to have the same opinions as we've had before. I think there are investment opportunities in that space as well now, which are better than before. We got the opportunity to invest in renewable infrastructure four years ago. And at the beginning, we were just really, really slow, because we thought the returns were too low, too many people chasing the deals. But now that's changed. So we think there are better returns in the space. There is a bit more supply, so you can deploy more capital. And we have beefed up the team and doing more than that. And renewable infrastructure specifically? Yeah. Or more broadly.

气候与金融市场的关系与以往不同。我们花了大量时间与公司合作，确保他们在气候问题上做出正确的决策。我知道美国对此有一些反对意见，但在欧洲我们没有看到同样的程度。在挪威，我们仍然保持着以往的观点。我认为现在在这个领域也有比以前更好的投资机会。四年前，我们有机会投资可再生能源基础设施。刚开始的时候，我们的动作很慢，因为我们认为回报太低，竞争激烈。但现在情况发生了变化，我们认为这个领域回报更好。供给增加了，可以投入更多资金。我们也扩大了团队，并且正在做更多的事情。可再生能源基础设施方面？是的，或者更广泛的领域。

Talk a little. Five years in, kind of frame for me. What are a handful of key accomplishments in these first five years? And what are a handful of the most important learnings? Yeah. Yeah, so first of all, it's not me, right? It's about the big team. But what are we focusing on? What are we focusing on performance, of course, because without performance, we have no reason to be. And it's very much about learning from mistakes. We've created this investment simulator where all the data from every PM is up in the cloud. And when you want to make a decision, you get it all fed back to you. All your weaknesses, all your bad habits, are you normally selling loses too late? Are you selling winners too early? When you trade, you basically get all these signals fed back to you. And so that's been a big development, which is now starting to change investment behavior. It's really cool, very good. We're also working on getting people to be more contrarian in the trades they do, and more long-term. The most difficult thing is to be long-term. Why is it so difficult? Why? You come to work on a Monday, and it's just like you come home. And you tell your husband, and he asks you, what did you do today? Well, I did nothing. Tuesday, nothing. Wednesday, nothing. Thursday, nothing. You don't feel great about it. And so sometimes the best thing is not to do very much, but it's very profitable. Compounding is just amazing. Compounding is a powerful thing. It's unbelievable. That's what we're doing on investment side.

说一点吧。五年了，给我一个框架。在这头五年里有哪些重要成就？又有哪些关键的学习经验？对，首先，要明确这不是我一个人的成就，而是一个大团队的努力。那么我们关注什么呢？当然是关注业绩，因为没有好的业绩，我们就没有存在的理由。此外，我们特别注重从错误中学习。我们创建了一个投资模拟器，把每一个项目经理的数据都上传到云端。当你要做决定时，这些数据会反馈给你，包括你的弱点和坏习惯，比如你是否常常卖出亏损的股票太晚或者卖出盈利的股票太早。当你交易时，你实际上会收到所有这些信号的反馈。这是一个很大的进步，现在正在逐渐改变投资行为，非常棒。 我们还在努力让人们在交易中更加逆向思维，并且更具有长期性。最困难的是坚持长期投资。为什么这么难呢？你星期一去上班，就像你回家一样，然后告诉你的丈夫，他问你今天做了什么，你回答：我什么也没做。星期二什么也没做，星期三什么也没做，星期四还是。你不会有很好的感觉。所以有时候不做太多事情反而最好，但却是非常有利可图的。复利真是非常神奇和强大的。这就是我们在投资方面所做的工作。

On the people side, more development of people, we are recruiting better people. On the communication side, much more transparency, more internal communication, more external communication. And then operational robustness better, and more focusing on cyber. So we just done a lot of things. Your shareholder, you mentioned 9,000 companies. I know Goldman Sachs is one of those companies. We appreciate that. We thank you for all your hard work. We're working hard. Adam, because you guys are working hard. We're working hard. We're working hard. Talk a little bit about investor dialogue. What makes for an effective investor dialogue? And how important is investor dialogue for you with respect to the companies? It's very, very important. We have more than 3,000 meetings a year with our companies. We turn up at nearly 10,000 AGMs. We vote on 120,000 proposals. We've got a big machinery doing this. I think the key is to have very clear expectations. And so we have this set up and set out in expectation documents. It's important to be consistent over time so that you, as a CEO, know that we are not like changing our mind all the time. One of the things I've found very interesting about our dialogue with you is, you know, I would say, you know, your team, when they deal with us, they are deep in the weeds, deep in the weeds. I'm really trying to understand how we're thinking about things.

在人事方面，我们更加注重员工的发展，并招聘更优秀的人才。在沟通方面，我们强调更多的透明性，增加内部和外部的沟通。此外，运营的稳健性得到了提升，并更加注重网络安全。我们做了很多工作。你提到的9,000家公司中我们是股东之一，我知道高盛就是其中之一。感谢你们的辛勤工作。Adam，由于你们的努力，我们也在努力工作。请谈谈关于与投资者对话的内容。有效的投资者对话应该具备哪些特征？与公司进行投资者对话对你来说有多重要？这非常重要。我们每年与公司举行超过3,000次会议，参加近10,000次年度股东大会，并对120,000项提案进行投票评估。我们有一套庞大的体系来完成这一工作。我认为关键是要有非常明确的期望，因此我们建立和设定了期望文件。重要的是要保持长期一致，这样作为CEO，你知道我们不会总是改变立场。我发现与我们对话的过程中，你的团队总是深入细节，真正试图理解我们的思考方式。

Do you, how do you do that by industry sector? Do you do that? How do you do that in the context? Yeah, we have industry sectors. We've got some really strong sectors. I think our banking team is really superb. So that's how we do it. Now, you know, there are two ways you can deal with problems. As an owner, you can just, you can sell your holding, or you can go into a dialogue. Now, what kind of problem do you solve by selling your holding? Nothing. You know, let's say now you have a company which is doing, you know, not so good stuff on climate. You sell, everybody sells the holding, what happens? Well, the company ends up in the hands of people who don't care. You know, so it's just not good. It's better to hold it and to talk. And to advocate and to engage. It's a good way. It's a good way to have problems at home. You can just kind of sort off, or you can try to fix it. Let's try to fix it as a better strategy.

你想知道如何按照行业领域来处理问题吗？我们确实根据行业领域来区分，我们在一些领域特别出色，比如我们的银行团队非常优秀。这就是我们的做法。对于问题的解决，其实有两种方法。作为所有者，你可以选择出售持股，或者进行对话。那么，通过出售持股能解决什么问题呢？什么都解决不了。如果你持有一家在气候方面表现不佳的公司的股票，大家都出售股票会怎么样呢？公司会落入不关心这些问题的人手中，这样不好。更好的做法是持有股票，进行对话，倡导并参与。这是在家里解决问题的好方法。你可以选择逃避，或者尝试解决问题。尝试解决问题才是更好的策略。

Awesome. Listen and understand first. Yeah. So in the first half of 2024, your fund post at $138 billion in profit, largely in kind of the acceleration of large cap tech. Let's talk a little bit about AI, kind of the future of AI investment. What are some of the risks of concentration in the market? I mean, at the moment, you know, when you look at kind of the large cap indexes and what's going on, you have enormous concentration. And if you're not, you know, overweighted to this handful of stocks, you're going to unperform. Talk a little bit about how you think it'll be. Yeah, it's a level of concentration we've never seen before, right? Mm-hmm. As you know, hugely concentrated in very few names. The big problem here, in my mind, is that they're all linked into the same geopolitical risk. And so we have not seen before, one, the concentration we've seen, two, the link with geopolitical risk.

太棒了。先听懂这一点。好的。那么在2024年的上半年，你们的基金实现了1380亿美元的利润，这主要是因为大型科技股的加速发展。我们来讨论一下人工智能，以及人工智能投资的未来。市场集中带来哪些风险？我指的是，当你查看大型股指数和市场动向时，你会发现一个巨大的集中现象。如果你不在这些少数股票上超配，你将表现不佳。谈谈你怎么看这个问题。这种集中度是我们以前从未见过的，对吧？嗯，如你所知，集中在极少数的公司。我认为这里最大的问题在于，它们都与同样的地缘政治风险相关联。因此，一方面，这种集中度前所未见；另一方面，它与地缘政治风险的联系也是前所未有的。

And that's just very risky. And so I think the risk in the public market is probably higher than in the private market now. Yeah. Yeah. And in the past, you know, we looked at kind of risks, well. Public market, not risky. Private market, very risky. I think perhaps it's changed. So you raised the private market. I talk a little bit about kind of private market. Talk a little bit about the fact that, obviously, in public markets, we have a narrowing of listing companies. We also, I think, given the burden of operating as a public company, we have people waiting longer to take companies to the public market. There's more availability of capital in a private form. How do you think about the private markets? How do you think about the growth of private capital? What do you think we are, you know, more secular growth?

这实在是非常有风险。所以我认为现在公共市场的风险可能比私人市场更高。过去，我们认为公共市场不太风险，而私人市场非常冒险。我认为这种看法可能已经改变。你提到了私人市场，我来谈谈这个话题。显然，在公共市场上，上市公司的数量在减少。另外，由于作为上市公司运营的负担，一些企业推迟上市，私人市场的资金获取更为便捷。你怎么看待私人市场？你怎么看待私人资本的增长？你认为我们正处于更长远的增长阶段吗？

Well, I think it's very interesting. You know, you now have, supposedly, the number of listed companies in the US has gone from 8,000 to 4,000. You're seeing the same development in Europe. You're seeing it pretty much all over the place. Private market companies stay private for longer. They get bigger and so on. So, I mean, unfortunately, it's a space where we are not operating. Yeah. So it's not in our mandate to be in the private market. But there is a political process. So it may change, but no for now. You know, I think ideally one should be in both. 6% annual returns, that kind of steadiness, that reliability has earned enormous trust from the people of Norway. Some critics probably say you can perform at a higher rate. Yeah. How do you think about that? How do you, because there's no question, you know, the risk reward has to be balanced when you think about long-term returns. How do you kind of benchmark? How do you think about that? Yeah, again, coming back to this mandate that we have for the Ministry, which in broad terms, or, you know, lay out how we should be invested. We have roughly 70% in equities, 30% in bonds. We have a real estate portfolio where we got, like, 1,000 properties around the world. We got quite a lot of ownership on, you know, aero Manhattan as well.

好的，我认为这非常有趣。你知道吗，据说美国的上市公司数量已经从8,000家减少到4,000家。欧洲也在经历类似的发展，基本上全球范围内都是如此。私人市场的公司保持私有状态的时间更长，它们变得更大等等。因此，很遗憾的是，这不是我们经营的领域。这不在我们的授权范围内，不过这是一个政治过程，所以可能会有所改变，但至少现在还不会。理想情况下，我认为人们应该同时投资于这两者。6%的年回报率，这种稳定性和可靠性赢得了挪威人民的极大信任。一些批评者可能会说，你能有更高的表现率。你怎么看待这个问题？因为毫无疑问，考虑长期回报时，风险与回报必须平衡。你如何进行基准比较？对此有什么想法？再次回到我们为这个部门制定的使命，其中大致概括了我们的投资方式。我们大约70%的资金投在股票上，30%投在债券上。我们还有一个房地产组合，在全球拥有大约1,000个房产，在曼哈顿地区也有相当多的持股。

So the returns could have been higher, historically, had we been in private markets, but, you know, we are not. You know, we have compounded between 6% and 7% for the last 28 years, and that's been good. So you look at the value of the fund now. One third of the fund is the value of money that the government has put in, and two thirds is returns. Yeah. So it's quite amazing. In a way, we found oil twice. One on Norwegian shelf. Yeah. Second time in financial markets. Yeah. When you think about kind of a risk award, you know, over a long period of time, and you think about compounding, you know, in particular, when you want a great asset, we own it forever, do you feel like if you really had an incredible asset that you say, we're going to own this for 50 years?

所以，从历史上看，如果我们参与私人市场，回报可能会更高，但我们并没有参与。过去28年间，我们的年复合收益率在6%到7%之间，这已经非常不错了。现在来看，基金的当前价值中，三分之一是政府投入的资金，而三分之二则来自于收益。这真是令人惊叹。可以说，我们在某种程度上发现了两次“石油”。第一次是在挪威的大陆架上。第二次是在金融市场中。当你考虑长期的风险回报和复利效果时，尤其是在你拥有一个极棒的资产时，你会觉得我们真的能持有这样的资产50年吗？

Personally, yes. That's the way I would construct a portfolio. Now, when you have portfolio managers who are incentivized on, let's say, three-year rolling basis, it's difficult to get people not to trade very much. And so we try to extend the time horizon on this. We are probably going to put in a five-year element in the comp, which I think you need to do to get people to kind of take a longer view. A longer to view, because you take a longer to view, you make fewer decisions. The fewer decisions you make, the better that tend to be. You know, if you make one decision a month, it tends to be better if you make 10 a day, right? Yeah, sure. You save, of course, I mean, of course, you would hate to hear this, but you save trading commission. And so.

当然，从个人角度来看，我会这样构建投资组合。现在，当投资组合经理的激励机制是基于三年滚动周期时，很难让他们不频繁交易。所以，我们试图延长投资的时间视角。我们可能会在薪酬中加入五年的考虑因素，我认为这对于让人们采取更长期的视角是必要的。持有较长的视角，因为这样可以做出更少的决策，而较少的决策往往会更好。比如，你每个月做一个决策通常比每天做十个决策效果更好，对吧？当然，你会节省交易佣金，虽然你可能不愿意听到这一点。

I don't really hate to hear it because I think it's fundamentally right. You know, I love the fact, though, that there are so many incentive schemes that actually force people to create velocity around capital. But one of the things I've never really understood is when you think about the way the whole private capital market is structured, it's actually structured to create velocity of capital. And, you know, I think most pension funds, just to take a broad example, not specific to your own, but most pension funds, you know, have much, much longer data liabilities. And so, you know, why, if you're allocating your money to a private equity manager, just pick one, you know, one form of private capital, why would you rather that they own something for four or five years and have an incentive system create velocity around it instead of to try to find they're a great company that can compound 8 to 10 percent, OK, you want them to own it for 30 years or 40 years. But there's very little. The whole financial market incentive system's not set up to do that. Absolutely. But everything is moving faster, you know, there's more frequent trading. Sure.

我并不讨厌听到这个观点，因为我认为它基本上是对的。我喜欢这样一个事实，即有很多激励机制迫使人们加速资本的流动。然而，我一直不太明白的是整个私人资本市场的结构是为了创建资本的流动性。例如，大多数养老基金拥有更长期的负债。那么，为什么在你把钱投入到一个私募股权管理人那里时，更希望他们在四五年内拥有某个资产，并通过激励机制加速资本流动，而不是寻找一个可以以8%到10%复合增长的好公司，并持有30或40年呢？整个金融市场的激励机制并不是这样设置的。然而，一切都在加速发展，交易也变得更加频繁。

You know, you'd be surprised to hear it, but over the last 30 years, people talk and walk 10 percent faster. So you measure average speed of walking in a city, and, you know, compared to 30 years ago, you were 10 percent faster. I mean, I think I've walked you, but. I've always been a fast walker. You've always been fast. I think I walked. I was just really, really interested. Just as fast now as I did 30 years ago. Yeah. I'm wondering about the companies you'd. I might talk a little bit slower now because, unfortunately, now people are listening to everything I say, so I've got to talk slower. But the walking things into people, people, there's certainly an intensity. Yeah. Especially around markets, there's an intensity that didn't exist 30, 40 years ago. Yeah, it's. It's markets. You know, we are always on, you know, about mobile phones. It's 24-7. It's 24-7. More or 18-2. Yeah. 24-7. For sure.

你知道吗，你可能会感到惊讶，在过去的30年里，人们说话和走路的速度都加快了10%。如果你测量一个城市里人们的平均走路速度，相比30年前，现在快了10%。我想我走路时也比较快。我一直走得很快。你也是。我觉得我一直保持着以前那样的速度。是的，我有时候说话稍微慢点，因为现在大家都听我说话了，所以我得慢一点。但关于走路，确实人们更加快速。特别是在市场周围，这种紧迫感在30或40年前是不存在的。是的，市场就是这样。我们总是在忙，有了手机以后，我们是24小时随时待命的。确实是全天候的工作。

Let's shift gears. You launched this terrific podcast, In Good Company, in 2022, all about leadership. I was lucky. And the second guest was you? I was the second guest. I was just lucky to be a guest. Thank you. Thank you for making me the second guest. I didn't realize I was the second guest. Who was the first guest? It was the C-O-B-P. Oh. But when you came on, you know, it was really cool because, you know, you start this thing, it was a pilot. I didn't know whether he was a good fly or not. And bang, you get the C-O of Goldman Sachs. Wow, big deal, you know. So then we thought, hey, this could perhaps be a serious thing. Well, now it's the biggest. Now it's one of the leading. It's a biggest podcast in the world, you know, one of them. Yeah. And, yeah, it's fun. No, it's a big podcast. But, I mean, think about this, okay?

让我们转换一下话题。你在2022年推出了一档非常棒的播客《In Good Company》，它主要谈论领导力。我很幸运，而你竟然是第二位嘉宾？是的，我是第二位嘉宾。我只是很幸运能成为嘉宾。谢谢，谢谢你让我成为第二位嘉宾。我都不知道我是第二位嘉宾。谁是第一个嘉宾？是C-O-B-P。哦。不过当你参加的时候，你知道吗，那真的是很酷，因为这是一个试播集。我当时并不知道效果如何。没想到，你请到了高盛的CEO。哇，真是大手笔。所以我们就想，嘿，这或许能成为一个很重要的项目。现在它已经是世界上最大、最具影响力的播客之一了，是的，非常有趣。这是一个很大的播客。不过，想想看，好吗？

Have anybody listened to any of these? Have anybody listened to any of these? Has anybody heard the podcast? Yeah. The CEO. What's wrong with the rest of you? Start listening to the podcast. The CEO of the largest sovereign wealth fund and a significant shareholder in the world. A significant shareholder in Goldman Sachs calls and says, hey, will you go on my podcast? Let me think about it, okay? I mean, that was not a tough ask. I was really impressed because you responded within five minutes. OK. Well, I try to be very, very responsive.

有人听过这些内容吗？有人听过这些内容吗？有人听过这个播客吗？是的。是CEO听过。其他人呢？赶快开始听这个播客吧。这个播客的主持人是全球最大主权财富基金的CEO，也是高盛的重要股东之一。他打电话来说：“嘿，你愿意上我的播客吗？”让我想想，好吗？其实这不是什么难以拒绝的请求。让我印象深刻的是，你在五分钟内就回复了。好吧，我尽量做到非常，非常及时回复。

But let's talk about the podcast. You've interviewed dozens of CEOs at this point, dozens of CEOs. Yeah. What similarities do you see? Yeah, it's very interesting because when you kind of cut them up into pieces and throw them up in the air and see where they land, CEOs have a lot of similarities, right? There is a lot of focus on grit. There is generally high level of energy. I would say curiosity is very high up on the list. So, yeah, they have quite a lot of things in common. Is good leadership changing and evolving? I think it is. I think it is. I think there is more focus in on listening skills. There is more on empathy.

但让我们来谈谈播客吧。到目前为止，你已经采访过几十位CEO了，几十位CEO。对，你看到他们有什么相似之处吗？这很有意思，因为当你把他们拆开分析，再看看他们的特点时，CEO确实有很多相似之处。他们非常注重毅力，一般来说他们都有很高的能量水平。我会说，他们的好奇心也很强。所以，他们确实有很多共同点。那么，好的领导力是不是在不断变化和发展呢？我认为是的。我认为是的。现在更注重倾听能力，还有更多的同理心。

There is more on generally involving the people you work with in strategy development and so on. I think it makes it easier to actually execute. And I also think the empathy element I think is more important than ever before in a time of AI that we lean on what it is that makes us human. And then I think there is a really interesting thing with the Indian leaders, people with Indian backgrounds because they've kind of broke through the glass ceiling and taken over the whole Silicon Valley, right? So, what is it that they bring? Well, I think there are more in the know in what they are doing.

在战略制定等方面，更广泛地将你的同事们参与进来，这是非常重要的。我觉得这样实际上更容易执行计划。我还认为，在人工智能时代，培养共情能力比以往任何时候都更重要，因为这使我们更加人性化。然后，我觉得印度领导者们也很有趣，很多拥有印度背景的人已经打破了玻璃天花板，接管了整个硅谷。那么，他们带来了什么呢？我认为，他们在自己所做的事情上更有见地。

There is something that the firm is bigger than themselves. There is a lot of focus on empathy, such as such an Adela who talks about that a lot. Very big on that. And that there is no trade-off between empathy and execution. It goes hand in hand. So, I think leadership is moving. Are there differences in regions? Yes. I suspect US leaders are a bit more extrovert. Probably take a bit more risks than we do in Europe. Skaven and Avin is big. I think that's a positive. Well, I actually think it's yes, it is a positive. And it explains part of why we have a bit of a problem in Europe. We don't take enough risks.

这家公司有一些超越了自身的东西。他们非常注重共情，比如阿德拉经常谈论这一点，非常看重这方面。共情与执行并不冲突，它们是相辅相成的。所以，我认为领导力正在发生变化。不同地区是否有差异？是的。我怀疑美国的领导者可能更外向，可能比我们在欧洲冒更大的风险。Skaven和Avin很重要，我认为这是一个积极的因素。实际上，我确实认为这是一个积极的因素。这也部分解释了为什么我们在欧洲遇到一些问题，我们不够冒险。

You know, there is combined with regulation and so on. But the risk appetite and the level of ambition in America is really driving growth. The innovation economy here and the willingness of people to start businesses, take risks, innovate, drive growth is definitely contributing to kind of US economic. Yeah, absolutely. But also the acceptancy of the fact that you make mistakes. So, in Europe it's not good to make mistakes. You often don't get a sense of time. Not good to make mistakes here either.

你知道，美国经济的增长是由监管等因素共同推动的。但真正推动增长的是美国人的风险偏好和雄心壮志。这里的创新经济氛围、创业精神、冒险精神以及创新都在推动美国经济的增长。是的，没错。此外，人们也接受犯错的事实。在欧洲，犯错是不被看好的，而在美国，这里同样不鼓励犯错。

No, but it's more accepted. It's just like, hey, we do lots of stuff and of course we make some mistakes. And you can change. Absolutely. And so that's a bit of a cultural difference. Yeah. When you look at these leadership lessons, you know, as you talk to different leaders, you find yourself incorporating it somehow into the way you run the fund. Totally. Can you give a concrete example? I try to integrate all the good stuff I learned. It's really, really interesting, right? I mean, we try to steal everywhere we can.

没有，不过这更被接受了。这就像是，说：嘿，我们做很多事情，当然会犯一些错误。而且你是可以改变的，绝对可以。这就是一种文化差异。当你学习这些领导力课程，与不同的领导者交流时，你会发现自己在某种程度上将其融入到基金的管理中。完全是这样。你能给个具体的例子吗？我努力整合我学到的所有好东西。这真的非常有趣，对吧？我的意思是，我们尽量从各方面汲取经验。

Talk about something. I mean, you should money, but I know. No, no, but ideas. By the way, you know, imitation is the highest form of flour. Totally. Totally. Talk about some of your favorite guests. What characteristics do they share as leaders? Well, I think, I mean, in addition to you, of course. Yeah, put me aside. No, I think you can put them into different categories. Of course, speaking to the tech leaders is amazing, right? So you speak to Sam Altman, Jenson Huang, Bill Gates and so on. And they basically look into the future.

谈谈一些事情。我是说，你应该考虑金钱，不过我知道。不是，不是，是想法。顺便说一下，你知道模仿是最真诚的赞美。确实，确实。谈谈你最喜欢的一些嘉宾吧。他们作为领导者有什么共同特点？嗯，我觉得，除了你以外，当然。好吧，把我放一边。我认为你可以把他们分成不同的类别。当然，和科技领袖对话是很棒的体验，对吧？所以你会和Sam Altman、黄仁勋、比尔·盖茨等人交谈。他们基本上是在展望未来。

You know, they see what it looks like and you learn that. I think some of the people who are from different places than actually finance is quite fun, right? We did Magnus Carlsen, the best chess player in the world, comparing chess strategy with investment strategy. It's like, wow. You know, when do you take risks? Do you take more risks after you lost? Or do you take less risk? You know, very different from what we typically do. So just a lot of learnings from that. Stoltenberg, the NATO Secretary-General on geopolitics and so on.

你知道，他们看到了它的外观，而你也会学到这一点。我认为，对于来自不同地方的人来说，实际上金融是相当有趣的。我们曾与世界上最优秀的国际象棋棋手马格努斯·卡尔森合作，将国际象棋战略与投资战略进行比较。这就像，哇，你知道吗？你什么时候冒险？是在你输了之后冒更大的风险，还是减少风险？这与我们通常的做法非常不同。所以，从中学到了很多东西。还有斯托尔滕贝格，他是北约秘书长，谈论地缘政治等等。

And then some of the really long-term thinkers, like the Wollenberg, since Sweden, really interesting. I would say it's perhaps the one thing that characterizes great investors. It's conviction and the ability to be contraria and not think about what other people think. And then be able to change your mind. And the combination of these stubborn and be able to change your mind, really, really rare. That's a great, great way to frame it.

一些非常具有长远眼光的思考者，比如瑞典的沃伦伯格家族，非常有趣。我认为，这可能是伟大投资者的一个显著特征。他们拥有坚定的信念，并具备反向思维的能力，不会在意他人的看法。同时，他们又能在必要时改变自己的想法。坚定和改变想法能力的结合，非常罕见。这真的是一种极好的思维方式。

What advice can you share about steps leaders should prioritize when they take a new job to lead an organization? I understand when you took this job, you actually kind of had a roadmap or a list of priorities that you wanted to follow. Do you have advice around that? Yeah, it was great. So I got this job. I rang the best sales I've ever met. And I said, hey, I got this new job. What should I do? I was like, well, what do you do? That's easy. You first have to talk to a lot of people in the firm. Do it before you start your job. Then you shall respect. They need to get to know you and you need to get to know them. You get more data points, so you make better decisions. They feel included. They feel heard so that when you make changes, they will be with you.

领导者在担任新职位负责一个组织时，应该优先考虑哪些步骤？我了解到，当你接受这份工作时，你实际上有一个路线图或优先事项清单要遵循。对此你有什么建议吗？ 是的，当然。得到这份工作后，我联系了我认识的最优秀的销售人员，问他们我该怎么做。我得到的建议是这样的：首先，你需要在正式开始工作前，和公司里很多人交流。这不仅展示了你的尊重，也让他们了解你，同时你也了解他们。通过获取更多的信息，能够帮助你做出更好的决策。他们会感到被纳入和被倾听，因此当你做出改变时，他们会支持你。

Then you put together a leader group. You do not hire people from the old side during your first year. You define your DNA of the firm and you show everybody else in the firm that you respect what they do. And then you make changes as a combined leadership group. You mustn't do it on your own because you can trigger what is called the corporate immune system, where basically they squeeze you out. So you do it as a combined group. And then you pick a few things, not too many, and don't make them the changes too fast. The people who fail are the people who try to do too much too fast. And so we made changes. And I think twice we felt that we were moving a bit too fast and we slowed down. But I think that's the way to do it.

然后，你组建一个领导团队。在第一年内，你不要从旧团队中招聘人员。你要定义公司的DNA，并向公司里的每个人展示你尊重他们的工作。接着，作为一个联合领导团队一起进行改变。你不能单独行动，因为这样可能会激发所谓的“企业免疫系统”，让他们把你挤出去。所以要以团体的方式进行。你需要挑选一些事情来改变，数量不宜过多，速度也不要太快。那些失败的人往往是因为他们试图在短时间内做太多改变。所以我们进行了变革，有两次我们觉得进展有点快了，就放慢了速度。但我认为这才是正确的方法。

You mentioned grit. I've always thought that grit is not just for leadership, but for success in life and business. The grit is a hugely, hugely valuable personal characteristic. Talk a little bit about how you think about grit and how it plays a role as people approach challenges. It's totally key. It's just how you cope with things, right? I think it's sometimes difficult to screen for it, but when you hire, you see what people have been doing. So I was interviewing this guy for a summer program. He said, hey, what have you done during your summers? I worked in a bakery. Okay, but I'm in seven summers in a row. Do you know when you need to wake up to work in a bakery? It's like three in the morning. Super early.

你提到了“毅力”。我一直认为，毅力不仅仅对领导力很重要，对生活和商业的成功也至关重要。毅力是一种非常非常宝贵的个人特质。能谈谈你对毅力的看法，以及它在人们面对挑战时所起的作用吗？这真的非常关键。这就是你如何应对事情的方式，对吧？我觉得有时候很难通过筛选来发现这种特质，但当你雇用某人时，可以看到他们以前的做法。我曾面试一个申请暑期项目的人。我问他：“你夏天都在做些什么？”他说他在面包店工作。我说：“好吧，但你连续七个夏天都在做这项工作。你知道在面包店工作需要几点起床吗？是凌晨三点。” 真的是非常早。

Super early. So we tried to find it. And I think we are in a world where there is perhaps a bit less grit than before. The younger generation have, on average, according to the specialists, a bit less grit because they've been protected by their parents. Parents are taking a lot of the decisions and the problems. And so therefore we have had less problems to cope with. And I think it's that's permanent or you think that's cyclical? Well, so that's interesting. But I do think it also explains some of the, you know, it's not easy to be young these days. And it could be that you just have too much protection. I think it's cyclical because I think the next generation is just like, hey, you know what, my parents kind of screwed me up. I'm certainly not going to do the same mistake. And so I think it's going to get, you know, into that kind of stuff.

非常早。所以我们尝试去理解这个问题。我认为我们生活在一个韧性可能比以前稍微少一点的世界中。根据专家的说法，年轻一代平均来说韧性稍微减少了一些，因为他们受到父母的保护。父母代替他们做了很多决定和处理了很多问题。因此，我们遇到的问题也减少了。你认为这是永久的现象还是周期性的呢？嗯，这很有趣。但我确实认为这也解释了为什么如今的年轻人不容易。可能是因为保护过多。我认为这是周期性的，因为我觉得下一代可能会这样想：你知道吗，我的父母有些决定搞砸了我的生活，我肯定不会犯同样的错误。所以我认为情况会有所改变。

In other words, my parents didn't get a hoot what I was doing. Oh, me neither. I mean, they basically said, come home in the street lights, go on. Absolutely. Okay, that certainly wasn't the way my kids grew up. Yeah, I mean, you know, my, I remember my father. He said, uh, nickel, have you heard about the hedge fund? It's like daddy, I've been, I worked for a hedge fund for 10 years now. Shift gears. You're passionate about European competitiveness. And it was interesting what you said a few moments ago when we were talking about, you know, innovation, economy and, and regulation. I mean, I just, I would just observe one of the things that, that, you know, I saw, you know, recently, the industry. You know, recently, it just kind of, I, I thought, you know, the European Union got so wrong. Was when the regulatory infrastructure came out and said, we have to protect Europe from AI. It's almost like the opposite.

换句话说，我父母根本不关心我在做什么。我也是，他们基本上就是让我在街灯亮起的时候回家。绝对的。不过，我的孩子们可不是这样长大的。是啊，我记得我爸爸曾经跟我说，"小子，你听说过对冲基金吗？" 我就想，爸爸，我在对冲基金工作了十年了。换个话题，你对欧洲竞争力很有热情。几分钟前你关于创新、经济和监管的观点很有趣。我只是想说，我最近观察到的一件事情，就是我觉得欧洲联盟在某些方面做错了。当他们推出监管措施时，声称要保护欧洲免受人工智能的影响，这几乎是适得其反。

How do we encourage Europe to be taking risks and investing in, in AI? Talk a little bit about what Europe can do to be more competitive. Yeah, it's a very, very difficult question, right? I mean, on AI, we think it needs some kind of regulation and oversight. But the thing is that in Europe, we have a lot of regulation. And in my mind, regulations are one, one, one by one, they're pretty good, right? There is a reason why you regulate that and why you regulate that and why you really get that. But it's a bit like you come into a bar and each bottle tastes pretty good. But when you put everything into a bucket, it doesn't taste so good. For the one I want I steal. Yeah, well. That's only like six. It's only six, yeah. Or whatever.

我们该如何鼓励欧洲在人工智能领域承担风险并进行投资呢？欧洲可以做些什么来提高竞争力？这是一个非常困难的问题，对吧？我认为，对于人工智能，我们确实需要一些监管和监督。但问题在于，欧洲已经有很多法规。在我看来，这些法规单独来看都很不错，每个法规的制定都有它的理由。不过，就像你走进一家酒吧时，每瓶酒的味道都不错，但如果把所有酒混在一起，味道就不怎么样了。这有点像是来自六种不同口味的混合。

So it's very regulated. And I think that the kind of the heavy level of regulation combined with kind of competition authority, which has insisted that there should be huge competition in all areas, in all countries, means that you have a pretty fragmented market, right? There is not one big bank. In every country, you have three telecom operators. So you basically have nearly 30 in all of Europe, was three in the whole of the US. So you get quite small players in a lot of different places and that means that they are not globally competitive. Now this may be changing, hopefully, and I think it does. But you know, there is a lot of stuff to do and if you want to read a good report on this, it's a drug report, which came out a little while back. Great report. It's just the kind of things we need to do. Now, what you need to do takes, it costs a lot of money and it takes strong political will. And so we'll see what happens. Leadership takes leadership. Takes leadership. Yeah, it's not easy. Yeah. So to live in Europe and invest in America is pretty good. Yeah. I was going to say Europe is a great place to live. It's a fantastic place to live. And you know, there are some really serious questions about kind of social fabric and those kind of things, right? Sure. And social protection. And for sure we have that in Europe. Yeah.

所以市场受到严格的监管。我认为，严格的监管加上竞争管理机构的要求，在所有领域和国家都要有激烈的竞争，这导致了市场的高度碎片化。没有哪一家大银行在每个国家占据主导地位。在每个国家，你都有三家电信运营商，所以整个欧洲几乎有近30家，而在整个美国只有三家。因此，你在很多地方看到的都是规模较小的公司，这也意味着它们没有全球竞争力。这种情况可能正在改变，希望如此，我认为的确如此。不过，要做的事情还很多。如果你想看一份好的报告，关于这个问题的有一份"药物报告"，不久前发布的。是一份很优秀的报告，正是我们需要做的事情。现在，要做到这些需要很多资金和强大的政治意志。我们会看看会发生什么。领导力是关键。真正的领导力是不容易的。生活在欧洲并投资美国是相当不错的。我想说，欧洲是个很棒的居住地，生活非常美好。在社会结构和社会保护方面确实有一些严肃的问题，而我们在欧洲确实拥有这些。

I mean, one of the things that I've found fascinating is I've gotten to know you over the last, you know, five, six years is you love to learn. You have lots of diverse interests, you know, outside of finance, including degrees you've completed as an adult in art history and social psychology. Talk a little bit about getting those degrees as an adult and how it's affected, you know, kind of the way you invest, how it's affected kind of your thought process around life. Yeah. So it depends on, you know, how do you, how do you measure your life? Some people measure the success in money. I don't do that. I think, you know, some people think the people who's got the most money when he or she dies has won. So I think that's totally wrong. I think they have lost because first of all they should have given it away, right? But I think the person who knows the most when he or she dies, they are the winners. So you need to learn as much as you can. And so, you know, I try to learn all the time. So, and I think one of the most interesting thing I've studied is social psychology because there it kind of teaches you how people think, what kind of risk they take, what are the drivers in their lives and so on. And we've put quite a lot of that into work in the fund. It's the whole idea behind the investment simulator. It's just how you can learn and how, you know, what are your weaknesses as a trader and so on. That comes from that. How you use your analysis versus gut field or pattern recognition. That's interesting. You know, how you cope with being contrarian, all these kind of things. So I do think it's very interesting how you can combine things with finance. And most of the innovations these days come from how you combine, you know, information in new ways. I think it's really fascinating.

我发现的一件很有趣的事情是，在过去的五、六年中，我了解到你很喜欢学习。除了金融以外，你还有很多不同的兴趣，比如你作为成年人完成了艺术史和社会心理学的学位。能不能谈谈你作为成年人获得这些学位的经历，以及它们如何影响了你的投资方式，还有你对生活的思考过程？ 对于人生意义的衡量，每个人都有不同的标准。有人以金钱为标准，但我不是这样。我认为有些人觉得当一个人去世时拥有最多财富的人就是胜者，这种观点完全错误。我觉得他们输了，因为他们本该把金钱捐出去。我相信当一个人去世时，懂得最多的人才是赢家。所以我们需要尽可能多地学习。 我一直在努力学习，其中社会心理学是我觉得最有趣的学科之一。它教给我人们的思维方式、他们愿意承担的风险以及影响他们生活的驱动力等。在我们的基金中，我们已经把很多这方面的知识运用了进去，比如投资模拟器背后的整个理念。这关系到如何学习，以及作为交易者的弱点如何暴露出来等。还包括你如何使用分析与直觉或模式识别，如何应对逆向思维等等。 我认为把这些知识与金融相结合非常有趣。如今，大多数创新都来自于以新的方式组合信息。我觉得这真的很吸引人。

You know, you're touching a little bit on culture. Culture is hugely important success. I read an article by a Norwegian author who praised your form of leadership saying, I quote, you embody the image of a modern Viking. Always in motion, constantly active, busy. They were keen to explore. Yeah. Supposedly they were very consensus driven. So I don't know how they did that. It's like, hey, which village are we going to pillage? Let's vote for it. But supposedly, and it explains why leadership form in the Nordic countries is more consensual, supposedly. Somebody told me. Yeah. No, I think you want to be curious. I think you want to move around. I think you want to do different things. You know, it's important not to have two strong habits. It's important to break them up.

你知道的，你提到了文化。文化对成功来说非常重要。我读过一位挪威作家的文章，他称赞你的领导风格，说你体现了现代维京人的形象：总是在行动中，持续活跃而忙碌。他们喜欢去探索。对，据说他们非常注重达成共识。我不太清楚他们是怎么做到的，就像是：“嘿，我们要去抢哪个村子？让我们投票决定吧。”据说这也解释了为什么北欧国家的领导形式更加注重共识。有人这么告诉我。对，我认为你要保持好奇心。我认为你应该多去不同的地方，做不同的事情。重要的是不要养成过于固定的习惯，要打破它们。

So, for instance, you know, when during the holiday you are the most happy. After it's over? No. The 43rd hour. That's after which you start to get habituated with where you are. So, it's a nice place. It's really sunny. It's wonderful. Wow. Blue water, right? It's just like amazing for the first 43 hours. And then it starts to become a habit. And so you need to break it up. You need to do some more things. So, for instance, I live in New York now for the whole of November. It's fantastic. Fantastic. You know, times I've never been more exciting. I wake up in the morning. I just can't wait to get out of bed. And it's just never been more exciting.

例如，当你度假时，什么时候是你最快乐的时候？是结束后吗？不是的。是第43个小时。因为过了这段时间后，你开始习惯于你所在的环境。那个地方很不错，阳光明媚，令人惊叹。蓝色的海水，真是太神奇了。前43小时一切都很新鲜。之后就开始变得习以为常。所以你需要打破这种习惯，做一些其他事情来丰富经历。比如，我现在整个十一月都住在纽约，感觉非常棒。日子从未如此精彩。每天早上醒来，我迫不及待地想要开始新的一天。这种兴奋感前所未有。

And let's not forget that this is the world we live in, right? We have technology change, has never been faster. Geobilitics, never more exciting. Hey, you have a selection coming up? Really exciting, too. Nikolai, thank you. This has been terrific. Really appreciate you taking the time to do it. Thank you very much. That was great.

不要忘了，这就是我们生活的世界，对吧？科技变化从未如此迅速。全球局势也从未如此激动人心。还有，你即将参加选举？那也非常令人期待。尼古拉，谢谢你。这次交流很精彩。非常感激你抽出时间来做这件事。非常感谢。真的很棒。

You always appreciate you doing it. Thank you.

你总是如此体贴，感谢你所做的一切。