"Cracked the Code for FSD" / Tesla's "Game Changing" AI Patent / New Elon Interview ⚡️
发布时间 2024-07-30 00:24:49 来源
摘要
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One giant gigacasting, one solid piece of cast aluminum. The quality of the gigacasting is the best I've ever seen. So you can see here, like any other die cast, like a Hot Wheels toy, there's a little flaking here from the mold itself. But boy, they've come a long way with castings. And just the quality of that casting and the gigapresses that they're now using to create these. And so we'll do another piece on some of the gigapresses and how they function, but molten alloy under high pressure. So there's no voids in here, no air pockets, no fracturing or cracks. So really impressive quality with this gigacasting. And in comparison, we've got a pole star sitting right next store. And I just pulled a piece of cast aluminum on that pole star. And boy, just look at the difference in quality from this piece, this cast piece, pretty ugly, versus the quality of this. So quite amazing what's happening with gigacasting and the technology. They're incredibly lightweight, incredibly strong. As we said in some of the earlier gigacasting videos, people think if the car's hit, you'll need to replace the entire assembly. Not true. There's sections in here where we can also just replace the front sections of this. So what's happening right now with the structure of vehicles is just mind blowing how quickly it's advancing and how Tesla specifically is able to deliver this kind of quality out of a gigacasting. And clearly, the competition has a long way to go to catch up. And you can see it here in this piece of cast right now. So amazing gigacasting in this vehicle.
一个巨大的超压铸件,一整块铸铝。这是我见过的质量最好的超压铸件。就像任何其他压铸件一样,像热轮玩具车一样,你可以看到这里有模具引起的一点脱落。但天呐,他们在铸件方面已经取得了巨大进步。而且现在使用的超压机和铸造质量也很出色。我们之后会专门讲讲超压机及其工作原理,高压下的熔融合金,所以这里没有空隙、没有气泡、没有裂痕。所以这个超压铸件的质量非常令人印象深刻。相比之下,我们旁边有一辆极星汽车。我刚刚从那辆极星上取下一块铸铝,天呐,看看这质量的差别,那块铸件非常难看,而这个超压铸件的质量很高。所以超压铸造和技术正在发生的事情非常惊人,它们非常轻盈,非常坚固。正如我们在一些早期的超压铸造视频中所说的那样,很多人认为如果车被撞了,需要更换整个组件。并不完全是这样,这里面有一些部分我们可以只更换前部结构。所以,车辆结构方面的进展非常惊人,特斯拉能通过超压铸造实现如此高的质量,确实令人难以置信。显然,竞争对手在追赶方面还有很长的路要走。你可以从这块铸件中看到这一点。所以,这辆车上的超压铸造真是太棒了。
Welcome to Electrified. It's your host, Dylan Loomis. Quick shout out to my newest patrons, Martin P and Mel H. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. Evolve the specialists with some very high praise for the gigacast on the Cybertruck in particular. And great to get that message out there that these gigacasts do indeed have some modularity built into them so when it comes to repair. If just part of the cast is actually damaged, no, you don't have to throw the whole thing out. You can oftentimes just take out a certain piece and replace it with a new part. We've been saying that on the channel for over a year now using anecdotes from subscribers, but it's good to hear some other industry players say the same thing. There's still plenty of chatter about Tesla and a potential investment into XAI. And just one thing to keep in mind for the people that may be wishing all of XAI's IP was under the Tesla umbrella. We can't forget about the CAPX that XAI has planned for the next 12 months. This year, the 100,000 H100 cluster may cost between three to $5 billion. And then Elon said next year, they're looking at 300,000 B200s and that project could cost between 10 and $15 billion. So on the high end of those ranges, that could be $20 billion in CAPX that XAI has planned in just the next 12 months.
欢迎来到 Electrified。我是你们的主持人,Dylan Loomis。首先感谢我最新的赞助者,Martin P 和 Mel H。感谢你们选择支持这个频道。Evolve specialists 对 Cybertruck 的超大铸件给予了很高的评价。很高兴能传递这样的信息:这些超大铸件确实设计了模块化,所以在需要维修时,如果只是部分损坏,你并不需要把整个部件丢掉。通常你只需要替换损坏的部分就可以了。我们这个频道已经通过订阅者的经历讨论这个话题超过一年了,现在听到业内其他人士也表达了相同的看法,真是太好了。
关于特斯拉和 XAI 潜在投资的讨论依然很多。不过,想要 XAI 的所有知识产权都归入特斯拉旗下的人需要记住一点:XAI 未来 12 个月的资本支出计划。今年,100,000 H100 集群可能会花费 30 亿到 50 亿美元。然后埃隆说明年他们计划发展到 300,000 B200s,这个项目可能会花费 100 亿到 150 亿美元。所以在这些范围的上限,XAI 在未来 12 个月内可能会有 200 亿美元的资本支出计划。
Right now, Tesla has just north of $30 billion in cash. So if these XAI projects were under the Tesla umbrella, they'd be spending about 67% of Tesla's free cash on those projects. And don't forget, those costs would be before any operational costs, any electricity costs, any costs for the engineers to actually get these clusters up and running. Just one more reason why personally, I'm okay with the separation of XAI and Tesla and would of course, as I've said, be in favor of Tesla investing in XAI.
目前,特斯拉拥有超过300亿美元的现金。如果这些XAI(可能指的是某种人工智能项目)是在特斯拉旗下进行,他们会花费特斯拉大约67%的自由现金用于这些项目。而且别忘了,这些成本还不包括任何运营成本、电力成本以及让工程师们实际上运作这些集群的费用。这也是我个人认为将XAI和特斯拉分开的另一个原因。当然,如我之前所说,我仍然支持特斯拉投资于XAI。
Today, Morgan Stanley made Tesla stock, their new top pick for US autos. Some reasons, the cost cutting and restructuring has stemmed the downside risk to the EV business, highlighting Tesla's layoffs and their investments in other parts of the business like energy and AI. They highlighted Tesla cornering the market on ZEV credits, regulatory credits, saying Tesla earned around $2,000 per unit in quarter two, more than two times the recent run rate. With nearly every legacy OEM continuing to pull back on full EVs, they said, we estimate Tesla may account for as much as one half of the credit sales in the market, supporting that 100% margin business for Tesla that may not be expected by the investment community at this time.
今天,摩根士丹利将特斯拉股票列为其在美国汽车行业的新首选。原因之一是成本削减和重组措施减少了电动汽车业务的下行风险。他们特别提到特斯拉的裁员以及在其他业务领域如能源和人工智能方面的投资。另外,他们还强调了特斯拉在零排放车辆(ZEV)积分市场的主导地位,特斯拉在第二季度每辆车赚取了约2000美元的监管积分,这比最近的运行率高出两倍多。几乎所有传统汽车制造商都在逐步减少全电动汽车的投入,摩根士丹利估计,特斯拉可能在市场上的积分销售中占到一半左右,这对特斯拉来说是一个100%利润的业务,而投资界可能还未预见到这一点。
They said from our discussions, investors are starting to consider the potential for Tesla to be an expression on the AI theme. But indicators of climate change are bringing even greater attention to Tesla's dominant position in energy storage. It's still crazy to me that they need these indicators to figure this out, even without climate change, megapacks would be a major deal for the grid and the energy market overall. They said, we see potential for the Tesla energy business to be worth more than the autos business. They did highlight some risks and one not to forget about is that even if Elon wins his 2018 Comp Plan case in Delaware, that would only take him to about a 20% ownership in Tesla. So after that, there would still be that 5% gap in voting control that Elon would like to get to. So how Tesla's going to solve that still remains to be seen.
他们说,根据我们的讨论,投资者们开始认为特斯拉可能成为人工智能主题中的一个表现。但气候变化的指标引起了更大的关注,让人们更加注意特斯拉在能源储存方面的主导地位。对我来说,真是不可思议,他们需要这些指标才能意识到这一点,即使没有气候变化,Megapacks 对电网和整体能源市场来说也会是一个重大项目。他们说,我们认为特斯拉的能源业务的潜力可能会超过其汽车业务。不过,他们也强调了一些风险,其中一个需要记住的是,即使埃隆在特拉华的2018年薪酬计划案中获胜,那也只能使他的持股比例达到大约20%。所以之后,埃隆还会有一个5%的投票权差距需要填补。至于特斯拉将如何解决这个问题,目前还不清楚。
A lot of folks out there are attributing the Tesla stock move today to this decision by Morgan Stanley, but personally, I don't think being the top pick for the US auto sector is really that appealing. The way I see it, it's a pretty low bar. A different bullish commentary that's going a bit more under the radar though, some analysts and investors are taking notice in comparing Tesla's energy division to another fast growing unit, Amazon Web Services. A chief investment officer said, yeah, I would compare it to AWS, adding the success of Tesla energy in a tour of the Lathrop facility, drove them to add to its Tesla holdings. Again though, I don't really see this as a great comparison for any reason other than they're both growing quickly.
很多人把今天特斯拉股票的涨势归因于摩根士丹利的这个决定,但我个人认为,被选为美国汽车行业的领头羊其实并没有那么吸引人。在我看来,这个门槛还是有点低。不过,有另一篇看好特斯拉的评论虽然没引起太多注意,但一些分析师和投资者已经在把特斯拉的能源部门和快速增长的亚马逊云服务(AWS)进行比较。一位首席投资官表示,是的,我也会拿它和AWS比较,并补充说,在参观了特斯拉Lathrop工厂后,他们对特斯拉能源的成功印象深刻,因此增加了特斯拉的持股。不过,我个人并不觉得这种比较有多大意义,除了它们都在快速增长。
In the used EV market, one new trend is the growing number of pre-2023 Model Wies priced under $25,000, which means those vehicles could qualify for the $4,000 federal tax credit. Just a heads up in case you have friends and family looking, they may be able to get a 2022 Model Y for around $20,000 if they qualify for the credit. Zurich, Australia has signed an agreement with Tesla to become the preferred EV insurance provider for their customers in Australia. The partnership will allow Tesla owners to access the Insure My Tesla Insurance offering directly through the Tesla app, the product which uses Zurich's edge technology is available to all Model 3 and Model Y customers. Insure My Tesla includes coverage for all vehicle repairs including glass, charging equipment and batteries, using Tesla's accredited repair network. Zurich has been Tesla's preferred insurance provider in Switzerland since 2016 and is now extending this collaboration to the Australian market. With Insure My Tesla, Tesla ownership becomes even more secure giving more Australians the confidence to switch to EVs.
在二手电动汽车市场上,一个新的趋势是,越来越多2023年之前的Model Y汽车售价低于$25,000,这意味着这些车辆可能符合$4,000的联邦税收抵免。如果你的亲朋好友正在寻找二手车,他们在符合抵免条件的情况下,可能以大约$20,000的价格买到2022年的Model Y。
此外,苏黎世保险(Zurich)与特斯拉在澳大利亚达成了一项协议,成为特斯拉客户的首选电动汽车保险提供商。通过这一合作,特斯拉车主可以直接通过特斯拉的应用程序访问“Insure My Tesla保险”服务,这一产品利用苏黎世的先进技术,适用于所有Model 3和Model Y车主。Insure My Tesla包括所有车辆维修的保险,涵盖玻璃、充电设备和电池,使用特斯拉认证的维修网络。自2016年以来,苏黎世一直是特斯拉在瑞士的首选保险提供商,现在将这一合作扩展到澳大利亚市场。通过Insure My Tesla,特斯拉车主的安全性更有保障,为更多澳大利亚人提供了信心去转换使用电动汽车。
If we could only have an update on Tesla insurance in the United States. Elon and Rohan Patel commented on an article by the Wall Street Journal that really just highlighted the fracture between Elon and the Democratic Party. Much of it we know, but when Biden took office, Tesla officials did reach out to the White House multiple times to try to connect Elon and Biden, but those officials repeatedly got the cold shoulder. We all know about the EV event that Elon was not invited to. We know all about Mary and her leading. And we've talked all about the FTC, the Justice Department and the FCC, all not really playing fairly with Elon's companies. Rohan said this is a rare article about Tesla and Elon where I can't find any factual errors and it has good context.
如果我们能得到关于特斯拉在美国的保险更新就好了。Elon 和 Rohan Patel 评论了《华尔街日报》的一篇文章,这篇文章实际上突显了 Elon 和民主党之间的裂痕。很多事情我们都知道,比如拜登上任后,特斯拉的官员多次联系白宫,试图让 Elon 和拜登建立联系,但这些官员屡次被冷落。大家都知道那个没邀请 Elon 参加的电动车活动。我们也都了解 Mary 的领导作用。我们谈到过 FTC(联邦贸易委员会)、司法部和 FCC(联邦通信委员会),这些机构对 Elon 的公司都不是很公平。Rohan 说,这是少有的一篇关于特斯拉和 Elon 的文章,我找不到任何事实错误,而且它的上下文也很好。
And Elon said Biden is utterly controlled by the UAW, he would rather Tesla be dead than not unionized. As I've said before, I think it would be tough to find an administration that's more adversarial toward Elon and Tesla than the Biden administration was. But again, whole Mars said Tesla will thrive no matter who the president is to which Elon said true. There's a newer Tesla patent application floating around out there. This one for a new transport protocol for ethernet communications that do not rely on software controlled mechanisms. I'll have the patent linked below if that's your area of expertise, but SETI Park put together a great write up on the patent.
埃隆说拜登完全被美国汽车工人联合会(UAW)控制,他宁愿看到特斯拉倒闭也不愿意看到它不成立工会。正如我之前所说的,我认为很难找到比拜登政府更敌视埃隆和特斯拉的政府了。但Whole Mars又说,无论总统是谁,特斯拉都会繁荣,对此埃隆表示同意。最近有一项新的特斯拉专利申请正在流传。这个专利是一种新的以太网通信传输协议,不依赖软件控制机制。如果你对此有专长,我会在下面提供专利链接。同时,SETI Park对这项专利进行了很好的解析。
If you see TTP, just think Tesla Transport Protocol. The TLDR on this one is quite simple. There's plenty of talk and attention on the actual hardware, whether it's Dojo, AI4, AI5, Nvidia H100s, B200s, but not nearly as many people are talking about or are well read on how these hardware chips actually communicate with each other. When it comes to things like latency, bandwidth, inference, and the efficiency of all those mechanisms, this is a big part of the story. Tesla's TTP is a hardware only ethernet protocol that's designed for low latency communication.
如果你看到TTP,就把它理解成特斯拉传输协议。这东西的核心内容其实很简单。大家通常更多地讨论和关注硬件本身,比如Dojo、AI4、AI5、Nvidia H100s、B200s等,而对于这些硬件芯片如何相互通信,谈论或深入了解的人却不多。涉及到延迟、带宽、推理以及这些机制的效率等问题,这实际上是一个重要的方面。特斯拉的TTP是一种仅限于硬件的以太网协议,设计目的是为了实现低延迟通信。
SETI said traditional network protocols like TCP and IP rely heavily on software for operation. TTP takes a radically different approach by implementing these functions directly in hardware. This shift from software to hardware only implementation is the key innovation of TTP. He said this hardware only approach one, reduces latency, there's no software overhead and leads to faster communication. Two, increased reliability, hardware implementation reduces points of failure and three, scalability, easily adaptable to different AI hardware configurations.
SETI 说,传统的网络协议如 TCP 和 IP 在运行时严重依赖软件。TTP 采取了一种完全不同的方法,直接在硬件中实现这些功能。这种从软件到硬件实现的转变是 TTP 的关键创新。他说道,这种纯硬件的方法有以下几个优势:第一,减少延迟,因为没有软件开销,通信更快。第二,提高可靠性,硬件实现减少了故障点。第三,具有良好的可扩展性,能够轻松适应不同的 AI 硬件配置。
Imagine FSD making decisions based on sensor data processed across multiple AI chips all communicating in near real time. That's the power of TTP made possible by the hardware only design. TTP can be integrated into a complex AI computing environment. The setup allows for seamless communication between various AI components from individual GPUs to entire compute clusters. Possible impacts on Tesla's FSD, faster training, reduced communication latency should significantly speed up AI model training. It could be more responsive, quicker data transfer between sensors, processors and actuators means faster reaction times for self-driving and efficient use of AI hardware.
想象一下,FSD(全自动驾驶)基于传感器数据进行决策,这些数据由多个AI芯片处理,并几乎实时通信。这是由纯硬件设计实现的TTP(高效穿透协议)的力量。TTP可以集成到复杂的AI计算环境中,使得从单个GPU到整个计算集群的各种AI组件之间的通信无缝衔接。对特斯拉的FSD可能产生的影响包括更快的训练速度、降低通信延迟,从而显著加速AI模型的训练。这意味着更快的反应时间,因为传感器、处理器和执行器之间的数据传输更迅速,AI硬件得到了更高效的利用。
Better communication allows for more efficient distribution of AI workloads across different chips. Sharing that article Pierre Farrigu said, very interesting, I'd love to see how implementation goes, timelines, et cetera, but my high level take is that an awful lot of Nvidia superiority today comes from their ability to interconnect GPUs at a very high bandwidth and very low latency and TTP if successful changes the game bringing chip interconnect down to the physical layer. It could be very disruptive and very challenging to follow for others to be carefully monitored.
更好的沟通可以更高效地在不同芯片之间分配AI工作负载。Pierre Farrigu分享了那篇文章,他说,非常有趣,他想了解实施情况、时间表等。不过他总体上的看法是,今天英伟达的优越性很大程度上来自于他们能够以极高的带宽和极低的延迟互连GPU。如果TTP(可能是一种新技术)成功了,它会将芯片互连带到物理层面,可以说这是非常颠覆性的,其他人可能会很难跟进,需要密切监控这个发展。
Whether this TTP protocol is specifically designed for Dojo or has broader applications, whether they're using it now already or whether they have plans to in the future, these are all still outstanding questions. At the very least, it'll be a new thread to pay attention to and read up on. The Tesla account said FSD12.5 can find its way out of parking lots as well as unmarked roads to which Elon said and it will improve significantly from here. Earlier this afternoon, Elon said FSD12.5.1 starts wide release today. Please connect your Tesla to Wi-Fi to receive the update. Farrzaud asked, includes hardware three to which Elon said it takes considerable software effort to optimize the code enough to run on hardware three.
无论这个TTP协议是专门为Dojo设计的,还是具有更广泛的应用,无论他们现在是否已经在使用,或者未来有没有计划使用,这些问题目前都还没有答案。至少,这将是一个值得关注和了解的新线索。特斯拉官方账号表示,FSD12.5能够从停车场和无标记道路中找到出路,对此埃隆表示,这个功能将在此基础上大幅提升。今天下午早些时候,埃隆宣布FSD12.5.1开始全面推送。请将你的特斯拉连接到Wi-Fi,以接收更新。Farrzaud问是否包括硬件三,埃隆回答说,要在硬件三上运行,需要相当大的软件优化努力。
It also needs to be validated separately. Estimated rollout is about 10 days. So this is still just for hardware four vehicles but there's light at the end of the tunnel for hardware three owners. Dan Birkeland asked any possibility of there being a Model S Plaid Plus or will the Roadster fill that void to which Elon said Roadster.
这还需要单独验证。预计推出时间大约是10天左右。所以这仍然只适用于硬件4的车辆,但硬件3车主也有希望了。Dan Birkeland问有没有可能会有Model S Plaid Plus,还是说会由Roadster来填补这个空缺,Elon回答说是Roadster。
Now it's probably fair to say this really won't be a wide release until another 10 days if that timeline is met for this to make it to hardware three cars. But hopefully this one is worth waiting for and just to add to that sentiment, don't forget what Ashok said, reverse is coming soon when the actually smart summon and the FSD models merged together over the next few releases. As Elon just said, actually smart summon is separate code but it will be bundled with 12.5.x next month so sometime in August. Which means yes, we may see FSD with the ability to reverse as soon as next month.
现在可以合理地说,如果一切顺利,这款产品在10天内不会大规模发布,特别是对于第三代硬件的车辆而言。不过,希望值得等待,让大家期待一下。同时,不要忘了Ashok说过,倒车功能即将推出,而且在接下来的几次更新中,"实际智能召唤"和全自动驾驶(FSD)模式将会合并。正如Elon刚才说的,"实际智能召唤"是独立的代码,但会在下个月与12.5.x版本一起发布,也就是大约在八月份。这意味着,我们有可能在下个月就能见到具备倒车能力的全自动驾驶功能。
It wasn't just Morgan Stanley sounding bullish on Tesla but Piper Sandler and Alex Potter are as well. Piper analysts are now suggesting that Tesla may have finally cracked the code for FSD. The title of their note, Tesla may have solved the self-driving puzzle, don't roll your eyes by Tesla. We think investors should consider the possibility Tesla's decision to host a Robotaxi event is not applied to distract from following EV sales. They analysts believe the focus on FSD at this event could underscore its importance to Tesla's future. Gee, thanks for that, fellas.
不仅仅是摩根士丹利对特斯拉持乐观态度,派杰(Piper Sandler)和Alex Potter也同样看好特斯拉。派杰的分析师现在表示,特斯拉可能终于破解了全自动驾驶(FSD)技术的难题。他们的报告标题是《特斯拉可能已经解决了自动驾驶的难题,请不要对特斯拉翻白眼》。我们认为投资者应该考虑这样一种可能性,即特斯拉决定举办机器人出租车活动,并不是为了分散大家对电动车销量的关注。这些分析师相信,此次活动中对FSD的关注可能强调了其对特斯拉未来的重要性。哇,多谢你们的见解,各位。
They touched on the more affordable upcoming Tesla but the analysts asserted that the primary significance of such a vehicle would be as a platform for disseminating FSD software more widely. Which is astute but then they said their DCF model suggests that without FSD revenue, Tesla's fair value would plummet to $77 per share. Then controversially they said they project FSD take rates will surge sharply around 2030, ultimately achieving near total adoption across Tesla's fleet. But they foresee FSD subscription prices increasing from $99 per month now to over $500 per month. Now for the Tesla owners that plan to put their cars on the Tesla Robotaxi network to earn money, maybe they can justify $500 a month. But for the average person that does not plan to do that, they just wanna pay for FSD to use for themselves. That does seem a bit steep no matter how frequently you drive. Piper Sandler has a $300 Tesla stock price target and Morgan Stanley is at 310.
他们提到了即将推出的更实惠的特斯拉车型,但分析师们强调,这种车辆的主要意义在于更广泛地传播FSD软件(全自动驾驶软件)。这是个很聪明的观察,但他们还表示,根据他们的贴现现金流模型,如果没有FSD收入,特斯拉的公允价值将暴跌至每股77美元。然后,他们争议性地预测,FSD的采用率将在2030年左右急剧上升,最终实现特斯拉车队中的几乎全面采用。他们还预计FSD的订阅价格将从目前的每月99美元涨到每月超过500美元。对于那些计划把车加入特斯拉Robotaxi网络以赚钱的车主来说,也许能为每月500美元找到合理性。但对于那些不打算这么做的普通用户,他们只是想自己使用FSD,这个价格似乎高得有点离谱,不管你开车多频繁。Piper Sandler给特斯拉设定的目标股价是300美元,而摩根士丹利设定的是310美元。
For some reason over the weekend, people were just picking up on one of the more important lines from the Tesla Q2 call. That being the fact that Tesla's next gen vehicles which are going to be built on existing lines will enable more than 50% growth over 2023 production before investing in new manufacturing lines. And as we talked about on the Q2 recap video doing the math that works out to just north of 2.7 million vehicles.
不知为何,这个周末大家开始注意到特斯拉第二季度电话会议中一个重要的内容。内容是,特斯拉的下一代汽车将会在现有的生产线上制造,这样在不需要投资新生产线的情况下,可以使2023年的产量增长超过50%。我们在第二季度总结视频中也提到,经过计算,这意味着特斯拉的年产量将超过270万辆。
A Cybertruck user said his experience with the Cybertruck was the best bumper towing experience I've ever had. The camera accurately aligns the ball with the hitch. The visual angle is perfect. Once the trailer mount is lined up, the truck remains stationary without rolling forward even a millimeter. The torque generated by the electric motor is remarkable. Sharing that West's one of the lead Cybertruck engineers said this is the same feedback I hear from our test drivers who have CDLs and decades of towing and hauling experience. Cybertruck is a pleasure to bumper tow with. He said we've also heard a lot of feedback from owners and have a whole list of towing specific items that we will improve OTA. West said the charging team is adding pool through spots to the locations where the layout can fit.
一位赛博卡车用户表示,他的赛博卡车拖挂体验是他有史以来最好的。摄像头能精准对齐拖车球和挂钩,视角非常完美。一旦拖车挂钩对准后,赛博卡车能保持静止,哪怕连一毫米都不会向前滑动。电动机产生的扭矩相当令人惊叹。与此同时,赛博卡车的一位首席工程师韦斯特也提到,他从拥有商业驾照并有数十年拖车和运输经验的测试司机那里听到了同样的反馈。赛博卡车在拖挂方面确实是一种享受。他还说,我们收到了很多用户的反馈,并有一个专门改进拖挂功能的项目清单,这些改进会通过OTA(空中下载)更新来实现。韦斯特还提到,充电团队正在为适合布局的充电点增加驶入式充电位。
And replying to Mark asking for larger mirrors, West said the mirrors are designed to be easily removed and replaced. I think we'll see tow mirror third party options soon. And West confirmed something that we've been speculating about for a long time. He said the semi truck has 900 kilowatt hours of battery pack. He also said any range extender offered by Tesla for the Cybertruck will be structurally mounted so it's safe in a crash. Which means no, the range extender is not going to be easily removed.
回应马克要求更大的后视镜,韦斯特说这些后视镜的设计是可以轻松拆卸和更换的。我认为我们很快就会看到第三方的拖车后视镜选项。韦斯特还确认了一直以来我们猜测的事情。他说这款半挂卡车的电池组有900千瓦时。他还表示,特斯拉为Cybertruck提供的任何续航扩展器将结构性地安装,以确保在碰撞时的安全性。这意味着,续航扩展器将不容易拆卸。
Elon just gave nearly an hour long interview to Tesla owners of Silicon Valley as part of appearing at the X or Tesla takeover. Elon confirmed AI five volume production should be in 2026. He said to build and run an NVIDIA training cluster is a lot of work and requires a lot of skilled engineers. It's a nightmare electrically. It's very difficult. There are dramatic changes in power draw, energy fluctuations. So there are quite a few pieces to solving that puzzle. He mentioned how AI is trying to compress reality, specifically talking about FSD. They're looking to get it down to a few gigabytes, but it'll probably be 20 gigabytes soon. He said the inference computer on Tesla vehicles is much weaker than a GPU in a server center. It only has about 15 to 20% as much power. That means you need more effort on the training side to make up for the weak inference computer. He said we can electrify all road transport and all ships without breakthroughs and batteries, but he thinks we need improvement and energy density for air travel, ideally between 450 and 500 watt hours per kilogram. There are some expensive cells in that range right now, but most of the R&D currently is going toward reducing the cost per kilowatt hour.
埃隆最近在硅谷特斯拉车主的采访中作为X或特斯拉接管的一部分,进行了近一个小时的采访。埃隆确认了AI第五代将在2026年达到量产阶段。他表示,构建和运行一个NVIDIA训练集群需要大量工作,并且需要许多技术娴熟的工程师来完成。从电力角度来看,这是一个噩梦,因为电力消耗和能量波动非常剧烈,很难解决这个难题。
埃隆提到,AI尝试压缩现实,特别是在谈到全自动驾驶(FSD)时。他们设想将其压缩到几GB,但很可能很快达到20GB。他还说,特斯拉车辆上的推理计算机远不如服务器中心的GPU强大,只有大约15%到20%的运算能力。这意味着需要在训练方面更加努力,以弥补推理计算机的弱势。
埃隆还提到,我们可以在不突破电池技术的前提下电气化所有道路运输和船舶运输,但他认为航空旅行需要提高能量密度,理想情况下在每公斤450到500瓦时之间。目前有一些昂贵的电池达到了这个范围,但大部分研发工作正致力于降低每千瓦时的成本。
The actuators and optimists will be moving into the forearm with the new optimist version later this year, which will emulate how the human hand works. The current version of optimist has actuators in the hand itself, and he reiterated that Tesla designs all of the actuators for optimists from scratch, and it'll have the same brain as the car. The production design version one of optimists for Tesla factories is just to make sure that it's useful, but he did say it will require a lot of babysitting for the first year from the engineering team. They're hoping that optimists will be responding to voice commands by 2026 when they're looking to sell it to other companies. And Elon said you should be able to customize how optimists looks long-term. He mentioned third parties should do some cool things. He actually said he's already talked to Pharrell, who was interested in having his own version of optimists. Elon said FSD should make it to the Cybertruck in August. He said at some point in the next two to four-ish weeks. He's not sure on the exact timing, but he said 12.5 is where a lot of things come together, one stack for the city in the highway, and he said you'll be able to wear sunglasses and still go hands-free, no nag.
执行器和Optimists将会在今年晚些时候的新版本中移入前臂,这会模拟人类手部的工作方式。当前版本的Optimist是将执行器安装在手部本身,特斯拉从零设计了所有的Optimist执行器,而且它将拥有和汽车一样的大脑。Tesla工厂生产的第一版本Optimist只是为了确保它有用,但他提到,工程团队在第一年需要对其进行大量的监控和保养。他们希望到2026年,Optimist能够响应语音指令,那时他们希望能将其售卖给其他公司。埃隆还说,用户应能够长期定制Optimist的外观。他提到,第三方可以做出一些酷炫的设计。他还透露,他已经与Pharrell谈过,对方对拥有自己的版本的Optimist很感兴趣。埃隆还说,全自动驾驶(FSD)将在八月适配到Cybertruck上。虽然时间不太确定,但他提到2到4周左右,他说12.5版本将会整合很多功能,包括城市和高速公路的一个统一系统,并且用户可以戴着太阳镜,保持双手自由,无需提示操作。
Peter Thiel keeps asking Elon while we don't have flying cars to which Elon has said, wait for it, it's coming. Elon thinks the roadster demo will be next year. It's a joint Tesla and SpaceX effort. He said it should be the most mind-blowing product demo ever. Elon reiterated that he loves Tesla retail investors. He said there will be ups and downs, but he feels confident the value of Tesla long-term will be extremely high. He said Tesla isn't a phase like Nvidia right now before Nvidia went bananas. I'll have the full interview linked below.
彼得·蒂尔一直问埃隆·马斯克为什么我们还没有飞行汽车,埃隆的回答是:等等,它马上就来了。埃隆认为,Tesla的Roadster演示会在明年,Tesla和SpaceX会联合进行这项演示。他说,这应该会是史上最令人震撼的产品演示。埃隆重申他非常喜欢Tesla的散户投资者。他指出会有起伏,但他自信Tesla的长期价值会非常高。他还说,Tesla不像现在的Nvidia只是一个暂时的热潮。我会在下面附上完整的采访链接。
Tesla Chan shared that Tesla China is now offering an ambient light retrofit for the Model Y, it costs around $180. However, this will only be for certain Model Y's built between specific dates. Why did you guys choose this? What was your lineup before? Well, we have Ford Explorers, Chevy Tahoe, Dodge Durango's, and because of all the products that we have in cars, we have to keep them idling constantly. So we're burning fuel. Our budget for our little town is really high. We're a little over $100,000 in fuel just for our small town. Wow. Exactly. And then it's hard on the engine. It's idling, it's creating heat. All the rubber products, suspension components, underneath the hood, all that just gets cooked. Wow. Yeah.
特斯拉的陈先生分享说,特斯拉中国现在提供为Model Y加装氛围灯升级服务,费用大约为180美元。不过,这项服务只针对特定日期之间生产的某些Model Y车型。你们为什么会选择这个?之前你们的车队是什么样的?嗯,我们有Ford Explorers、Chevy Tahoe、Dodge Durango。由于我们车上安装了很多设备,所以必须让它们一直空转发动机。这就浪费了燃油。我们这个小镇的预算非常高,仅油费就超过了10万美元。哇,真是。对,而且这对发动机也不好。发动机空转会产生热量,所有的橡胶制品、悬挂组件以及引擎盖下的所有部件都会被烤焦。哇,是啊。
So we're looking to save fuel, efficiency, no oil changes, transmission changes. Reject the brakes. Save on the brakes. Dan Priestley, who leads the Tesla Semi program, shared this image of a render of what the new Tesla Semi Factory will look like when complete. You'll notice the absence of solar panels on this one. Maybe in this case, the solar panels could actually be spelling out Semi, but it doesn't look like it'll be anything like Gigatexus. Elon shared a post from drag times that said, new record 8.56 at 162 miles per hour by the Tesla plaid. But as you can see from the video, this is not quite a factory vehicle. It's pretty stripped down. Someone captured a Cybertruck accident where it drove head into a pole, but I just wanted to share the inside of the vehicle and the dash area that was seemingly unchanged other than for the airbags deploying, highlighting the safety and the benefits of that huge crumple zone for all Teslas, but specifically the Cybertruck.
我们正在努力节省燃料,提高效率,不需要更换机油和变速箱油。减少刹车的使用,节省刹车耗损。特斯拉Semi项目负责人Dan Priestley分享了一张新特斯拉Semi工厂完工后的效果图。你会注意到这次没有太阳能电池板。也许在这种情况下,太阳能电池板其实可以拼出"SEMI"这个词,但看起来不会像特斯拉德州超级工厂(Gigatexas)那样。埃隆·马斯克分享了一条来自Drag Times的帖子,说特斯拉Plaid创造了新的记录,以162英里每小时的速度跑出了8.56秒。但从视频中你可以看出,这并不是一辆完全工厂配置的车,而是一辆经过轻量化改装的车。有人拍到了一个Cybertruck撞上电线杆的事故,我只是想分享一下车内和仪表板区域的情况,除了气囊弹出外,似乎没有什么变化,突出了所有特斯拉汽车,尤其是Cybertruck的安全性能和巨大的缓冲区带来的好处。
The South Pasadena Police Department has said, these are the most capable vehicles available at any price. They just so happened to save taxpayer money as well. They were of course talking about the Model Y. Tesla China posted a new video on Weibo saying, RoboTaxi is coming soon and Optimus will be released in 2026. At a global auto conference, Ford CFO just said, the way we're developing the vehicle is very different than the traditional way OEMs have developed vehicles in a linear progressive process. A process we've basically been incrementally improving over the last 120 years or so. This in regard to their Skunk Works team working on their lower cost EVs. This will sound familiar, he said, it's agile. The engineers don't rely on suppliers for design. They'll work with suppliers. We go down into the supply base a couple of tiers.
南帕萨迪纳警察局表示,这些是市场上最强大的车辆,无论价格多少都无敌。同时,它们还能为纳税人省钱。当然,他们指的是特斯拉的Model Y。特斯拉中国在微博上发布了一段新视频,表示RoboTaxi即将推出,Optimus将于2026年发布。在全球汽车大会上,福特首席财务官表示,我们开发车辆的方法与传统汽车制造商线性渐进的开发过程非常不同。这种传统过程我们已经改进了约120年。他在谈到福特的Skunk Works团队正在开发低成本电动车时说道,这种方法听起来很熟悉,它是敏捷的。工程师们在设计上并不依赖供应商,而是与供应商合作。我们的团队会深入到供应链的几级。
If you haven't been following along, that's exactly what Tesla has been doing for years. They basically develop new products in tandem with their suppliers all the way down the supply chain. Back to Ford, he said, we will own the entire electrical architecture, we'll own the software on the modules, the systems integration between the vehicle and the digital architecture and then the experiences that come from that, the pace of development and then the cost structure. We're developing those vehicles to be competitive with a return at between 25 and $30,000. There was an article today from Bloomberg of one truest analyst who once again tested Tesla's FSD and he did not have a great experience but it was 12.3.6. Tesla stock closed the day at $232.10 up 5.6% while the NASDAQ was up 0.07%. It was a normal volume day for Tesla trading about 11 million shares above the average volume the past 30 days. Hope you guys have a wonderful day.
如果你之前没在关注的话,特斯拉这些年来一直在做的事情就是这样。他们基本上整个供应链上下游与供应商并行开发新产品。回到福特,他说,我们将拥有整个电气架构的所有权,掌握模块上所有软件,车载系统与数字架构之间的集成,以及由此产生的各种体验、开发速度和成本结构。我们正在开发的这些车辆,目标是在售价25,000到30,000美元之间实现盈利。今天,彭博社报道一位Truist分析师再次测试了特斯拉的全自动驾驶系统(FSD),但体验并不理想,当时版本是12.3.6。特斯拉股票当日收盘价为232.10美元,上涨了5.6%,而纳斯达克指数仅上涨了0.07%。对于特斯拉来说,这一天的交易量是平常水平,大约有1100万股,高于过去30天的平均交易量。希望大家度过美好的一天。
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