以下是内容的中文翻译： 来自 Stacked Homes 的 Lionel 探讨了新加坡人普遍关心的一个问题，即他们的组屋（HDB 公寓）在 99 年地契到期后的命运。他首先阐述了政府的官方立场：当地契到期时，组屋将归还给国家，其价值实际上变为零。芽笼的一些私人房产被收回且没有得到任何补偿，就证明了这一点。 然而，Lionel 指出，并非所有的组屋都会走完完整的 99 年租期。 有两种潜在的情况可以介入：选择性整体重建计划 (SERS) 和自愿性整体重建计划 (VERS)。 SERS 是更有利的结果，它提供了一个新的 99 年地契的替代组屋，以及搬迁的潜在补偿。 不幸的是，预计只有一小部分（4-5%）的组屋区会进行 SERS，这使其成为一种不可靠的策略。 另一方面，VERS 是一项将在组屋达到大约 70 年时提供的计划。 如果有足够数量的组屋业主同意，建屋局将回购组屋，并根据市场价值和剩余租期等因素进行支付。 由于 VERS 尚未实施，具体细节仍不清楚。 政府已表示，VERS 的补偿将不如 SERS 慷慨，可能与 Balas 曲线定价相符，即租赁价值与永久产权价值的百分比挂钩。 Lionel 对达成 VERS 共识表示担忧，并将此与公寓集体出售的过程进行了比较。 他认为，组屋业主主要是自住业主而非投资者，他们可能对财务收益的兴趣不大，而更依恋自己的家。 此外，组屋区内多样化的人口结构可能会使达成共识变得复杂。 特别是年长的居民可能不愿意搬迁，尤其是在补偿不高的情况下。 经常会有人提出在租约衰减变得过于严重之前出售组屋的选择。 虽然这可以在个人层面上解决问题，但它并没有解决更广泛的问题，因为最终会有人留下老化的组屋。 出售较旧的组屋可能会面临挑战，因为融资受到限制。 CPF（公积金）的使用受到限制，只适用于剩余租期不到 20 年的组屋，而银行通常会避免为剩余租期不到 30 年的组屋提供融资。 虽然有轶事证据表明较旧的组屋以高价出售，但这些往往位于非常理想的成熟地段。 对于位于不太优越地区的组屋，升值和易于出售可能不太重要。 虽然贬值可能被略微夸大，但重要的是不要假设所有组屋市镇都会像大巴窑或女皇镇等黄金地段那样升值。 Lionel 接着提出了解决 99 年租约问题的潜在方案。 首先，他指出了目前正在进行中的建造更高密度住房的趋势。 较旧、较小的组屋楼房经常被拆除，取而代之的是包含更多单元的更高楼房。 其次，他建议让私人物业开发商参与进来。 物业开发商通常缺乏土地，并且可能对收购和重建较旧的组屋地块感兴趣。 目前，私人物业开发商能够对私人住宅提供集体出售，但对组屋则不行，这加剧了贫富差距。 租赁公寓即使剩余租期不到 40 年，也能以好价钱出售，因为存在重建的潜力，而组屋市场则缺乏这种预期。 第三种可能的解决方案是改变租赁续期的方式。 在其他拥有租赁房产的国家，业主可以选择以一定的成本续签租约。 建屋局可以实施类似的单次收费或续期机制，尽管这可能在政治上很敏感，并导致不公平的指责。 Lionel 还预计“夹心层”将发挥更重要的作用，他们可能需要为组屋租约即将到期的年迈父母提供住房支持。 对于那些无法出售并搬到新组屋的人来说，财务规划可能需要更加健全。 他建议政府可能需要制定计划和补贴，以帮助那些必须安置租约到期父母的新加坡人。 最后，Lionel 考虑了新加坡人口老龄化对房地产市场的影响。 随着老一代的去世，他们的组屋将由他们的子女继承。 鉴于新加坡的高房屋拥有率，许多子女已经拥有自己的房产，除非规则在那时发生改变，否则可能会导致大量空置的转售组屋出现。 然而，有些人可能会认为，空置组屋的过剩和价格的下降可能有利于未来的世代。

Lionel from Stacked Homes addresses the common concern among Singaporeans about the fate of their HDB flats as their 99-year lease approaches expiration. He begins by stating the official government position: when the lease expires, the flat reverts to the state and its value effectively becomes zero. This has been demonstrated with private properties in Geylang that were taken back without compensation. However, Lionel points out that not all flats will necessarily run the full 99-year course. Two potential scenarios can intervene: Selective En Bloc Redevelopment Scheme (SERS) and Voluntary En Bloc Redevelopment Scheme (VERS). SERS is the more favorable outcome, offering a replacement flat with a fresh 99-year lease, along with potential compensation for the move. Unfortunately, only a small percentage (4-5%) of HDB estates are expected to undergo SERS, making it an unreliable strategy. VERS, on the other hand, is a scheme to be offered when a flat reaches around 70 years of age. If a sufficient number of flat owners consent, HDB will buy back the flats, with payouts based on factors such as market value and remaining lease. As VERS has yet to be implemented, specific details remain unclear. The government has indicated that VERS compensation will be less generous than SERS, potentially aligned with Balas curve pricing, where leasehold values are pegged as a percentage of freehold values. Lionel expresses concern about securing consensus for VERS, drawing parallels to condo en bloc processes. He suggests that HDB owners, being primarily homeowners rather than investors, may be less motivated by financial gains and more attached to their homes. Furthermore, the diverse demographics within HDB estates could complicate reaching a shared agreement. Older residents, in particular, might be reluctant to move, especially for modest compensation. The option of selling the flat before the lease decay becomes too severe is often raised. While this may address the issue on an individual level, it does not solve the broader problem as someone will eventually be left with the aging flat. Selling older flats can be challenging due to financing limitations. CPF usage is restricted for flats with fewer than 20 years remaining, and banks typically avoid financing flats with fewer than 30 years left. While anecdotal evidence exists of older flats selling for high prices, these tend to be in highly desirable, mature locations. Appreciation and ease of sale are likely to be less significant factors for flats in less prime areas. Though depreciation may have been slightly exaggerated, it’s critical to avoid assuming all HDB towns will appreciate like those in prime locations such as Toa Payoh or Queenstown. Lionel then suggests potential solutions to the 99-year lease issue. Firstly, he points to the ongoing trend of building denser housing. Older, smaller HDB blocks are often demolished and replaced with taller buildings containing more units. Secondly, he proposes involving private developers. Property developers are typically land-scarce and could be interested in acquiring and redeveloping older HDB sites. Currently, private developers are able to offer en bloc purchases on private homes but not HDB, which exacerbates the wealth gap. The expectation that leasehold condos can sell at good prices (even with fewer than 40 years remaining) because of potential redevelopment is absent in the HDB market. A third possible solution is to change the lease renewal methods. In other countries with leasehold properties, owners have the option to renew their leases at a certain cost. HDB could implement a similar one-time charge or renewal mechanism, although this could be politically sensitive and lead to accusations of unfairness. Lionel also anticipates a more prominent role for the “sandwich generation,” who may need to provide housing support for elderly parents whose HDB leases are expiring. Financial planning might need to be more robust for those unable to sell and move to a newer flat. He suggests that the government may need to create schemes and subsidies to assist those Singaporeans who have to house their parents with expired leases. Finally, Lionel considers the impact of Singapore's aging population on the housing market. As the older generation passes away, their flats will be inherited by their children. Given Singapore's high homeownership rate, many children will already own their own properties, leading to a potential influx of vacant resale flats unless the rules are changed by then. However, some might argue that a surplus of vacant flats and lower prices could benefit future generations.