这段文字记录了挪威银行投资管理公司首席执行官Nikla Tangin与阿波罗全球管理公司联合创始人马克·罗万之间的一次对话。讨论深入探讨了阿波罗的历史、投资理念、不断变化的金融格局、领导力见解以及罗万对市场和世界的个人看法。 罗万首先回顾了他最初对进入金融领域的怀疑，并强调了该行业的不断发展。他认为，根本性的变革，而不仅仅是技能，才是阿波罗从2008年的400亿美元增长到今天的超过7000亿美元的驱动力。他将阿波罗的创立归功于德崇证券倒闭后失业，强调创业往往源于必要性，同时也承认运气在掌握技艺方面发挥的重要作用。罗万认为，今天创办一家新的金融服务公司要困难得多，他预测市场将由小型和超大型公司主导。 罗万澄清说，阿波罗的业务包含两个主要业务：资产管理和退休服务（Athena）。退休服务最初仅以1600万美元的资本金启动，如今已发展成为一家拥有4000亿美元的企业。这一成功源于对具有利差的投资级固定收益的需求，这促使阿波罗发展了自己的信贷发起能力。他强调，信贷发起是这项业务的命脉。阿波罗还参与信贷发起，类似于过去的通用电气金融，利用其在各个领域的专业知识，成为车队、飞机和证券化融资等领域的强大贷款人。 对话转向了非银行贷款机构不断变化的角色。罗万驳斥了银行与投资者之间争夺私人信贷市场份额的激烈斗争的说法。他认为，“私人信贷”应该被更广泛地定义为包括银行资产负债表上的几乎所有资产，其中绝大多数是投资级别。虽然阿波罗确实参与杠杆贷款，但这仅占其整体业务的一小部分。罗万强调，全球监管机构正在鼓励投资者在信贷提供方面发挥更大的作用，而不是银行。他指出，银行非常适合运营密集型的短期贷款，而像阿波罗这样拥有长期保险负债的机构更适合为基础设施和能源转型项目提供资金。他强调了银行和资产管理公司之间的共生关系；银行想要客户关系，而阿波罗想要资产，这表明他们没有直接竞争。 罗万认为，由于阿波罗不吸收存款、不进行期限错配，也不使用财政资金，因此声称阿波罗需要像银行一样受到监管是毫无根据的。他认为，增加投资参与信贷市场可以增强系统的弹性并降低杠杆率。他认为，私人信贷最终将走向与公共投资级信贷的融合。罗万指出，美国上市公司数量下降，私营公司日益普遍，这表明需要更多的私人资本。他声称，公共市场已经变得过于指数化和相关，短期内更多地受到资本流动而非真正的价格发现的驱动。他批评说，主动型基金经理始终未能跑赢指数，这表明市场发生了结构性转变。 谈到私募股权，罗万预计，由于大规模货币刺激期间的高价格和低成本杠杆，近期成立的基金的回报率将降低。他预测会进行一次洗牌，提供“私人市场贝塔”的公司将会挣扎，而专注于“私人市场阿尔法”的公司将会蓬勃发展。罗万预计费用将保持稳定，但不一定是行业增长。他预计家族办公室和个人对私人资产的需求将会增加，并且公共市场和私人市场最终会趋于一致。他认为固定收益正在引领潮流，配置正在分为贝塔和阿尔法。 在谈到流动性时，罗万声称，资本向私人市场的转移，加上投资银行用于市场交易的资本减少，将导致公共市场的流动性紧张。反过来，他认为投资级市场的私人市场流动性将会增加。他认为私人市场最终将提供与公共市场相同的发行人、评级、规模和流动性。讨论延伸到股票市场，并认为投资者将持有私人股权，即使它们不是其私募股权投资组合的一部分。他指出像Spotify和OpenAI这样的公司，它们在没有上市的情况下筹集了股权。 当被问及资产增长与回报生成时，罗万强调，以牺牲回报为代价来追求资产增长将会摧毁业务。他强调了阿波罗的三项基本原则：购买价格很重要，产生单位风险的超额回报（阿尔法），以及确保利益一致。罗万强调基于价值的投资，并在股票和固定收益市场中产生阿尔法。他声称，自成立以来，阿波罗的投资理念一直保持一致，专注于价值而不是追逐潮流。 罗万承认地缘政治和政治风险是关键问题，以及巨额和平时期赤字令人担忧的影响。他还强调指数化和相关性是系统性风险。他指出，公共市场缺乏每日流动性，尤其是在401k账户中。罗万提倡信贷市场中资本结构顶端的投资，并避免股票市场中的趋势，以此作为风险缓解策略。 在反思领导力时，罗万将自己描述为一位服务型领导，能够帮助他的团队取得成功。他强调管理他的200名合伙人的职业生涯，并培养一种判断力和伙伴关系的企业文化。罗万强调了文化沟通的重要性。至于弱点，他强调该公司的成功来自他能够将公司定位在市场顺风中获益。罗万为他的团队以及整体工作环境感到自豪，他觉得他们每天都有幸在这里工作。每天早上，他都被学习世界各地正在发生的事情以及弄清楚如何采取行动所激励。 在决策方面，罗万说分析很重要，也要相信你的直觉。他不认为这份工作有压力，并强调任何不想在那里的人都应该找一份新工作。当他面试时，团队正在寻找合适的匹配。 最后，罗万提倡创建一个安全的环境，以便失败并迅速前进。他强调了他所犯的人和时间框架错误，并强调公司拥有正确的时机并将自己定位为成功的重要性。最后，当被问及他会给年轻人什么建议时，他强调掌握自己的技艺并对自己诚实，以及热爱工作的重要性。

This transcript captures a conversation between Nikla Tangin, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, and Mark Rowan, co-founder of Apollo Global Management. The discussion delves into Apollo's history, investment philosophy, the changing financial landscape, leadership insights, and Rowan's personal views on the market and the world. Rowan begins by reflecting on his initial skepticism about entering the financial world, emphasizing the constant evolution of the industry. He credits fundamental change, rather than solely skill, as the driver of Apollo's growth from $40 billion in 2008 to over $700 billion today. He attributes Apollo’s founding to being unemployed after Drexel Burnham's collapse, underscoring that entrepreneurship often emerges from necessity, while acknowledging the significant role of luck alongside mastery of the craft. Rowan believes that starting a new financial services firm today is much more challenging, predicting a market dominated by small and very large firms. Rowan clarifies that Apollo's operations encompass two primary businesses: asset management and retirement services (Athena). The retirement services side, initially capitalized with a mere $16 million, has exploded into a $400 billion enterprise. This success stems from the need for investment-grade fixed income with a spread, leading Apollo to develop its own credit origination capabilities. He emphasizes that origination is the lifeblood of the business. Apollo is also involved in credit origination, similar to the old GE Capital, using its expertise in various sectors to become a strong lender in areas like fleet, aircraft, and securitization finance. The conversation transitions to the evolving role of non-bank lenders. Rowan dismisses the notion of a fierce battle between banks and investors for private credit market share. He argues that "private credit" should be defined more broadly to include almost every asset on a bank balance sheet, the vast majority of which is investment grade. While Apollo does engage in leveraged lending, it constitutes only a small portion of their overall business. Rowan highlights the trend of regulators worldwide encouraging investors to take on a larger role in credit provision, as opposed to banks. He points out that banks are ideal for operationally intensive, shorter-term lending, while institutions like Apollo, with long-term insurance liabilities, are better suited to providing capital for infrastructure and energy transition projects. He emphasizes the symbiotic relationship between banks and asset managers; banks want the client relationship and Apollo wants the asset, suggesting they don't compete directly. Rowan contends that the claim that Apollo needs to be regulated like banks is unfounded, due to the lack of deposit-taking, maturity transformation, or access to treasury funds. He argues that increased investment participation in the credit market enhances the system's resilience and reduces leverage. He believes that private credit is ultimately headed towards integration with public investment-grade credit. Rowan notes the decline in publicly listed companies in the US and the increasing prevalence of private companies, suggesting the need for more private capital. He claims that public markets have become too indexed and correlated and is driven more by capital flows than genuine price discovery in the short term. He critiques that active fund managers consistently fail to outperform the index, indicating the structural shifts in the market. Turning to private equity, Rowan anticipates lower returns on recent vintage funds due to high prices and low-cost leverage during periods of massive monetary stimulus. He predicts a shakeout, with firms providing "private markets beta" struggling, while those focusing on "private markets alpha" will thrive. Rowan expects stable fees but not necessarily industry growth. He anticipates increased demand for private assets from family offices and individuals and eventual convergence between public and private markets. He believes fixed income is leading the way, where allocations are splitting between beta and alpha. Discussing liquidity, Rowan claims the shift of capital towards the private markets, paired with investment banks using less capital for market making, the liquidity in the public market will be strained. In turn, he suggests that the private market liquidity will increase for the investment grade market. He sees private markets eventually offering the same issuers, ratings, size, and liquidity as public markets. The discussion extends to equity markets and argues that investors will own private equities even if they're not a component in their private equity portfolio. He points to companies like Spotify and OpenAI, which have raised equities without going public. When asked about asset growth vs return generation, Rowan stresses that pursuing asset growth at the expense of returns will destroy the business. He highlights three fundamental principles at Apollo: Purchase price matters, generating excess return per unit of risk (alpha), and ensuring alignment of interests. Rowan emphasizes value-based investing and generating alpha in both equity and fixed-income markets. He asserts that Apollo's investment philosophy has remained consistent since its inception, with a focus on value rather than chasing trends. Rowan acknowledges geopolitical and political risks as key concerns, as well as the worrying implications of a large peacetime deficit. He also highlights indexation and correlation as systemic risks. He points out the lack of daily liquidity in public markets, especially in 401k accounts. Rowan advocates for top-of-the-capital-structure investments in credit markets and avoiding trends in equity markets as risk mitigation strategies. Reflecting on leadership, Rowan describes himself as a servant leader who enables his team's success. He emphasizes managing the careers of his 200 partners and fostering a culture of judgment and partnership. Rowan underscores the importance of cultural communication. As for weaknesses, he stresses that the firm’s success comes from his position to position the company to benefit from tailwinds in the markets. Rowan is proud of his team and the overall work environment that he feels like they are privileged to work at every day. He is motivated every morning by learning what is happening around the world and figuring out how to take action. In terms of decision making, Rowan says it is important to analyze, as well as trust your gut. He doesn’t see the job to be stressful and stresses that anyone who doesn’t want to be there should find a new job. When he interviews, the team is looking for a fit. Finally, Rowan advocates for creating a safe environment for failing and moving on quickly. He stresses people and time frame mistakes that he has made and stresses the importance of a company to have the correct timing and position itself for success. And finally, when asked what advice he would give to young people, he highlights the importance of mastering one's craft and being honest with oneself, as well as loving the job.